CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceFedExForum, Memphis, TN
Jackson St
Efficiency #353
2025-26: 12-21 · 11-9 conf
@
Memphis
Efficiency #152
2025-26: 13-19 · 8-11 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · TBD
68.3
win 9%
Projected
83.6
win 91%
No line posted yet.
Model: MEM −15.4 · total 151.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Memphis 70.1, Jackson St 69.8 → 71.5 possessions
+6.9
Memphis offense vs Jackson St defense
+4.0
Jackson St offense vs Memphis defense
−7.3
Projected total
151.9
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Memphis offense vs Jackson St defense
+4.0
Jackson St offense vs Memphis defense
+7.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Memphis by 15.4
15.4
Jackson St side ◂▸ Memphis side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 151.8 against a projected 151.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Memphis.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Memphis is the faster team (71.4, #37 of 365) and Jackson St the slower (71.0, #51). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.9
model
Projected team totals
68.3 / 83.6
Jackson St / Memphis
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.8#65
Jackson St
70.1#44
Memphis

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageJackson St
Where Jackson St struggles: shooting
Jackson St shoots an effective 45.7% (#354); Memphis allows 48.7% (#55). Expect about 46.7%, 4.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.5 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
Memphis averages 71.4 possessions per 40, Jackson St 71.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageMemphis
Where Memphis scores: the offensive glass
Memphis rebounds 35.3% of its own misses (#41); Jackson St lets opponents grab 37.2% of their own misses (#359). Expect about 37.1%, 6.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseMemphis
Memphis's shot-blocking
Memphis ranks #32 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.9% of Jackson St's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
TurnoversJackson St
Jackson St turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.4% is worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions against Jackson St's offense.
DefenseMemphis
Memphis's ball-hawking
Memphis ranks #29 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.6% of Jackson St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Jackson St has the ball
OffenseMemphis allowsvs D1 avg
45.7% #354
48.7% #55
-6.5 pt/100
19.4% #336
18.5% #70
-3.3 pt/100
29.7% #215
35.6% #350
+1.3 pt/100
37.4% #117
42.4% #329
+0.7 pt/100
75.8% #55
—
+0.3 pt/100
Jackson St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.5 pts/100
Memphis has the ball
OffenseJackson St allowsvs D1 avg
48.7% #298
53.0% #267
-0.9 pt/100
18.9% #317
16.5% #185
-1.2 pt/100
35.3% #41
37.2% #359
+4.1 pt/100
34.7% #190
41.9% #319
+0.5 pt/100
72.1% #205
—
-0.0 pt/100
Memphis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Jackson Stoffense vsMemphisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Jackson St shoots
Memphis allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim52.1%#34859.0%#19058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.0%#12144.8%#29239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.4%#30534.3%#5538.0%
Three31.4%#31130.5%#2233.7%
Memphisoffense vsJackson Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Memphis shoots
Jackson St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.8%#20560.9%#26658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.5%#20729.3%#1239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.5%#16931.1%#1138.0%
Three31.6%#30334.8%#23633.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Jackson St
−5.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#350 of 365
Off reb %
29.7%
#215
Def reb %
62.8%
#359
Turnover %
19.4%
#336
Forced TO %
16.5%
#185
FT rate
37.4%
#117
FT allowed
41.9%
#319
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−2.1
Ball security−1.8
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed−1.7
Memphis
−2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#275 of 365
Off reb %
35.3%
#41
Def reb %
64.4%
#350
Turnover %
18.9%
#317
Forced TO %
18.5%
#70
FT rate
34.7%
#190
FT allowed
42.4%
#329
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding−1.6
Ball security−1.4
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed−1.8

Memphis has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.2 (#275 of 365) to Jackson St’s −5.4 (#350).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Jackson St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Jackson St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3Jayme Mitchell Jr.GJr6'5"32-3132.814.54.90.92.347.3%33.2%5.978.7%27.5%
24Daeshun RuffinGSr5'10"28-2833.523.32.85.33.847.2%30.9%5.084.3%41.5%
1Dorian McMillianGSo6'3"28-2429.511.94.41.42.147.2%32.8%6.275.0%26.4%
4Devin ReeFSr6'9"33-1820.85.43.00.70.943.6%27.6%3.088.2%17.9%
0Tamarion HooverGSo6'4"30-419.85.93.10.30.552.4%34.7%3.987.5%16.6%
12Delyle WilliamsGJr6'3"31-517.22.92.41.31.233.5%25.6%1.460.0%16.3%
20Raevon ThomasFSr6'9"25-1517.63.33.30.30.859.5%38.9%0.756.0%11.7%
8Dionjahe ThomasFJr6'8"23-1918.45.15.30.41.248.3%33.3%0.156.4%19.0%
2Jalen TatumGJr6'4"11-626.57.72.61.81.639.8%41.7%1.163.0%21.0%
21Kobe ButlerFFr6'7"27-410.41.81.80.10.439.6%0.0%0.183.3%12.8%
10Ebo WilsonCSo6'10"18-710.80.72.10.20.728.6%—0.00.0%10.3%
11Mike WilliamsGFr6'2"8-319.95.52.30.82.028.4%15.0%2.583.3%26.6%
9Deyan KolevFFr6'9"17-17.50.91.00.10.433.3%18.2%0.650.0%12.8%
7Kedrick SimmonsFFr6'6"8-011.01.61.80.50.540.0%25.0%1.050.0%12.5%
13Cael JonesGFr6'1"5-03.01.00.60.00.050.0%100.0%0.20.0%19.5%
5Keiveon HuntGSr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Jackson StMemphis
Efficiency
101.0
106.9
115.6
105.8
69.8
70.1
—
—
Shooting
45.7%
48.7%
44.6%
49.4%
31.4%
31.6%
75.8%
72.1%
37.4%
34.7%
Ball control & glass
19.4%
18.9%
16.5%
18.5%
29.7%
35.3%
37.2%
35.6%
11.1%
11.3%
12.4%
10.4%
Style
43.3%
33.7%
34.3%
44.9%
15.2%
17.0%
45.8%
49.8%
32.0%
40.2%
Roster
2.87
3.19
6'4.6"
6'5.6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Jackson St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Jackson St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Memphis
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.