CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceOcean Bank Convocation Center, Miami, FL

FAU

Efficiency #122

2025-26: 18-15 · 10-10 conf

FIU

Efficiency #200

2025-26: 15-17 · 8-13 conf

Wed, Dec 2 · TBD

77.4

win 45%

Projected

78.9

win 55%

No line posted yet.

Model: FIU −1.5 · total 156.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: FIU 71.0, FAU 69.9 → 72.5 possessions

+9.2

FIU offense vs FAU defense

−1.9

FAU offense vs FIU defense

+0.8

Projected total

156.2

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

FIU offense vs FAU defense

−1.9

FAU offense vs FIU defense

−0.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.2

FIU by 1.5

1.5

FAU side ◂▸ FIU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 156.3 against a projected 156.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help FIU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, FIU is the faster team (71.5, #33 of 365) and FAU the slower (70.2, #85). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

72.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

156.2

model

Projected team totals

77.4 / 78.9

FAU / FIU

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.9#58

FAU

71.0#16

FIU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

FIU averages 71.5 possessions per 40, FAU 70.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageFAU

Where FAU struggles: ball control

FAU turns it over on 17.6% of possessions (#242); FIU forces turnovers on 20.1% of opponent possessions (#21). Expect about 19.3%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.

ClashFIU

Style match: 3-point volume

FIU rarely shoots threes (32.7% of its shots); FAU runs teams off the line (35.2% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.4% — both habits push the same way.

DefenseFAU

FAU's shot-blocking

FAU ranks #20 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.8% of FIU's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

DefenseFIU

FIU's ball-hawking

FIU ranks #20 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.7% of FAU's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

AdvantageFIU

Where FIU struggles: shooting

FIU shoots an effective 50.6% (#210); FAU allows 49.5% (#81). Expect about 50.0%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions.

FAU has the ball

OffenseFIU allowsvs D1 avg

52.2% #135

52.9% #264

+1.9 pt/100

17.6% #242

20.1% #21

-3.2 pt/100

31.6% #140

34.8% #335

+1.8 pt/100

33.3% #231

35.9% #209

-0.0 pt/100

70.3% #262

—

-0.2 pt/100

FAU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.4 pts/100

FIU has the ball

OffenseFAU allowsvs D1 avg

50.6% #210

49.5% #81

-1.9 pt/100

17.7% #254

15.5% #251

+0.3 pt/100

33.9% #69

28.3% #78

+0.9 pt/100

38.6% #87

36.2% #215

+0.3 pt/100

69.4% #287

—

-0.3 pt/100

FIU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

FAUoffense vsFIUdefense

Share of shots by zone

FAU shoots

39.6

6.3

16.2

38.0

FIU allows

39.0

5.4

10.0

45.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.5%#110	54.1%#41	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.8%#179	39.5%#175	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.7%#121	42.5%#317	38.0%
Three	33.3%#208	36.2%#313	33.7%

FIUoffense vsFAUdefense

Share of shots by zone

FIU shoots

45.4

7.7

14.5

32.5

FAU allows

45.4

6.8

12.9

34.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.7%#249	53.7%#37	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.6%#233	40.9%#207	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.6%#271	34.5%#62	38.0%
Three	34.7%#137	33.8%#169	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

FAU

−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#229 of 365

Off reb %

31.6%

#140

Def reb %

71.7%

#78

Turnover %

17.6%

#242

Forced TO %

15.5%

#251

FT rate

33.3%

#231

FT allowed

36.2%

#215

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.8

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers−0.8

Foul shots drawn−0.4

Foul shots allowed−0.2

FIU

+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#91 of 365

Off reb %

33.9%

#69

Def reb %

65.2%

#335

Turnover %

17.7%

#254

Forced TO %

20.1%

#21

FT rate

38.6%

#87

FT allowed

35.9%

#209

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.1

Defensive rebounding−1.4

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers+2.3

Foul shots drawn+0.9

Foul shots allowed−0.2

FIU has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#91 of 365) to FAU’s −1.0 (#229).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

FAU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted FAU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Isaiah Elohim	G	So	6'5"	32-32	28.1	12.4	4.2	1.0	0.9	52.7%	36.8%	3.3	66.0%	24.4%
18	Kanaan Carlyle	G	Jr	6'3"	28-27	31.1	14.3	3.8	2.9	2.5	49.8%	32.4%	6.4	85.4%	28.8%
25	Niccolo Moretti	G	Jr	6'1"	33-14	26.2	5.6	2.0	3.3	1.9	50.7%	26.7%	1.4	67.2%	15.5%
1	Devin Williams	F	So	6'10"	33-33	23.8	7.5	5.2	1.3	1.3	54.8%	30.6%	1.5	67.4%	19.0%
22	Devin Vanterpool	G	So	6'4"	24-24	31.2	15.8	6.3	2.4	2.1	52.5%	35.1%	6.2	78.2%	29.4%
11	Josiah Parker	G	Fr	6'7"	32-8	21.8	9.6	6.0	1.2	1.3	51.7%	16.0%	0.8	61.6%	26.6%
17	Xander Pintelon	F	Jr	6'11"	33-25	18.2	6.2	3.7	0.7	0.8	51.5%	35.2%	3.2	85.4%	19.9%
3	Amar Amkou	G	Fr	6'7"	26-1	12.7	5.5	2.2	0.4	0.7	52.0%	36.4%	1.7	79.2%	24.7%
77	Maxim Logue	F	So	6'9"	28-0	11.2	4.8	3.1	0.0	0.6	67.4%	0.0%	0.1	42.9%	22.1%
5	Yohann Sissoko	G	Fr	6'5"	27-0	11.2	3.3	1.7	1.1	0.9	47.7%	42.9%	0.8	75.7%	19.9%
9	Max Langenfeld	G	Fr	6'6"	16-1	8.2	3.5	0.9	0.5	0.5	48.1%	27.3%	2.8	66.7%	26.9%
8	Vincent Neugebauer	C	Jr	7'1"	13-0	8.1	2.5	1.6	0.2	0.4	65.0%	—	0.0	53.8%	17.2%
4	Liam Dayco-Green	G	Fr	6'2"	8-0	3.1	2.0	0.4	0.0	0.3	57.7%	45.5%	1.4	50.0%	34.3%
30	Lachlan Smith	G	Fr	6'3"	2-0	1.5	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.5	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	52.1%
7	Zion Sampaio	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

FIU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Zawdie Jackson	G	Sr	6'1"	31-31	29.1	12.1	2.5	3.1	1.4	50.8%	37.7%	2.5	86.9%	21.9%
9	Eric Dibami	F	Fr	6'10"	30-30	29.0	9.3	7.4	1.4	1.6	52.7%	0.0%	0.0	52.1%	19.9%
5	Hamed Olayinka	F	Jr	6'9"	32-32	23.7	10.0	6.7	0.9	1.5	55.0%	15.4%	0.4	54.5%	24.8%
10	Julian Mackey	G	Sr	6'2"	30-9	22.7	12.4	2.4	1.8	1.4	52.1%	36.4%	5.0	72.9%	30.2%
1	Brit Harris	G	Sr	6'5"	32-0	18.7	5.6	2.5	1.6	0.8	49.7%	31.5%	3.5	64.7%	18.4%
4	Ashton Williamson	G	So	6'3"	26-25	22.7	7.7	2.3	2.6	2.0	46.0%	31.6%	3.8	81.8%	24.2%
34	Ibrahim Olajuwon	F	Jr	6'10"	32-2	14.2	4.0	3.2	0.2	0.7	55.8%	0.0%	0.0	52.3%	16.6%
6	Thiago Sucatzky	G	Fr	5'10"	32-0	13.7	3.6	1.0	2.3	1.5	46.2%	44.0%	0.8	82.6%	20.5%
25	Kennedy Brown	F	Sr	6'8"	20-0	7.3	1.6	1.6	0.3	0.4	40.0%	0.0%	0.1	44.4%	16.9%
11	Amarion Nimmers	G	Jr	6'3"	5-0	8.4	1.6	0.4	0.6	0.0	18.2%	0.0%	1.6	57.1%	16.4%
15	Renato Ruiz	G	Sr	6'1"	6-0	4.5	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.2	75.0%	—	0.0	—	8.9%
23	Aydan Clinton	F	Fr	6'6"	2-0	3.0	1.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	15.2%
7	Gvidas Gicevicius	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Jorge Santos	F	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
0	Michael Kelvin II	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

FAU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted FAU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Isaiah Elohim	G	So	6'5"	32-32	28.1	12.4	4.2	1.0	0.9	52.7%	36.8%	3.3	66.0%	24.4%
18	Kanaan Carlyle	G	Jr	6'3"	28-27	31.1	14.3	3.8	2.9	2.5	49.8%	32.4%	6.4	85.4%	28.8%
25	Niccolo Moretti	G	Jr	6'1"	33-14	26.2	5.6	2.0	3.3	1.9	50.7%	26.7%	1.4	67.2%	15.5%
1	Devin Williams	F	So	6'10"	33-33	23.8	7.5	5.2	1.3	1.3	54.8%	30.6%	1.5	67.4%	19.0%
22	Devin Vanterpool	G	So	6'4"	24-24	31.2	15.8	6.3	2.4	2.1	52.5%	35.1%	6.2	78.2%	29.4%
11	Josiah Parker	G	Fr	6'7"	32-8	21.8	9.6	6.0	1.2	1.3	51.7%	16.0%	0.8	61.6%	26.6%
17	Xander Pintelon	F	Jr	6'11"	33-25	18.2	6.2	3.7	0.7	0.8	51.5%	35.2%	3.2	85.4%	19.9%
3	Amar Amkou	G	Fr	6'7"	26-1	12.7	5.5	2.2	0.4	0.7	52.0%	36.4%	1.7	79.2%	24.7%
77	Maxim Logue	F	So	6'9"	28-0	11.2	4.8	3.1	0.0	0.6	67.4%	0.0%	0.1	42.9%	22.1%
5	Yohann Sissoko	G	Fr	6'5"	27-0	11.2	3.3	1.7	1.1	0.9	47.7%	42.9%	0.8	75.7%	19.9%
9	Max Langenfeld	G	Fr	6'6"	16-1	8.2	3.5	0.9	0.5	0.5	48.1%	27.3%	2.8	66.7%	26.9%
8	Vincent Neugebauer	C	Jr	7'1"	13-0	8.1	2.5	1.6	0.2	0.4	65.0%	—	0.0	53.8%	17.2%
4	Liam Dayco-Green	G	Fr	6'2"	8-0	3.1	2.0	0.4	0.0	0.3	57.7%	45.5%	1.4	50.0%	34.3%
30	Lachlan Smith	G	Fr	6'3"	2-0	1.5	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.5	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	52.1%
7	Zion Sampaio	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

FAU

Against the spread

Season

17-14

Home

8-5

Road

6-7

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −2.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 0 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-14

Home

6-7

Road

9-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total −4.8

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	North TexasAdjEM #151	N	L 70–74	+1.5	L−2.5	137.0	O144	97.8	103.4	71.5
Mar 11	TempleAdjEM #168	N	W 63–59	+1.0	W+5.0	144.5	U122	97.4	91.3	64.7
Mar 7	Wichita StAdjEM #60	A	L 70–88	+8.0	L−10.0	149.0	O158	99.9	125.5	70.1
Mar 1	CharlotteAdjEM #193	H	W 77–76 OT	−7.0	L−6.0	148.0	O153	106.2	104.9	72.5
Feb 26	TempleAdjEM #168	H	W 77–73	−4.5	L−0.5	146.0	O150	120.2	114.0	64.0
Feb 22	North TexasAdjEM #151	A	L 72–73	+2.5	W+1.5	140.5	O145	112.1	113.7	64.2
Feb 18	UTSAAdjEM #350	A	W 60–52	−11.5	L−3.5	157.5	U112	88.7	76.9	67.6
Feb 15	South FloridaAdjEM #36	H	L 81–83 OT	+5.0	W+3.0	166.5	U164	105.7	108.3	76.6
Feb 11	RiceAdjEM #255	A	L 73–81	−3.5	L−11.5	151.5	O154	104.8	116.2	69.7
Feb 4	TulsaAdjEM #46	H	L 76–78	+2.5	W+0.5	163.5	U154	105.4	108.2	72.1

FIU

Against the spread

Season

16-13

Home

9-6

Road

7-6

Last 10

4-6

avg cover +0.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

6-9

Road

9-4

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −1.8

Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	Missouri StAdjEM #212	N	L 72–75	+1.0	L−2.0	152.5	U147	110.5	115.1	65.1
Mar 7	Western KYAdjEM #159	H	W 92–67	+1.0	W+26.0	160.0	U159	125.7	91.5	73.2
Mar 5	MTSUAdjEM #167	H	L 67–73	+1.0	L−5.0	153.5	U140	97.4	106.1	68.8
Feb 28	Louisiana TechAdjEM #211	A	W 84–76	+2.0	W+10.0	146.0	O160	120.7	109.2	69.6
Feb 26	Sam HoustonAdjEM #101	A	L 67–100	+6.0	L−27.0	162.0	O167	91.4	136.4	73.3
Feb 21	Missouri StAdjEM #212	H	W 70–67	−3.5	L−0.5	155.0	U137	104.2	99.7	67.2
Feb 19	LibertyAdjEM #103	A	L 89–90 OT	+10.5	W+9.5	153.5	O179	112.3	113.6	79.2
Feb 14	Louisiana TechAdjEM #211	H	W 77–64	−3.0	W+10.0	146.5	U141	113.9	94.7	67.6
Feb 12	DelawareAdjEM #302	H	L 66–68	−8.5	L−10.5	146.5	U134	98.9	101.9	66.8
Feb 7	Western KYAdjEM #159	A	L 70–80	+4.0	L−6.0	156.0	U150	102.8	117.5	68.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

FAUFIU

Efficiency

109.1

107.6

106.7

108.9

69.9

71.0

—

Shooting

52.2%

50.6%

53.6%

49.9%

33.3%

34.7%

70.3%

69.4%

33.3%

38.6%

Ball control & glass

17.6%

17.7%

15.5%

20.1%

31.6%

33.9%

28.3%

34.8%

10.6%

11.1%

7.5%

8.4%

Style

38.2%

32.7%

45.6%

46.6%

15.6%

16.0%

47.1%

49.9%

32.3%

32.6%

Roster

2.14

2.84

6'5.9"

6'5"

—

85.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

FAU

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted FAU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

FIU

Returning minutes: 85.1%Returning production: 81.4%

Lost

Corey Stephenson 30.2 mpg, 17.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Jorge Santos no D1 minutes last season
Gvidas Gicevicius no D1 minutes last season
Michael Kelvin II no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.