CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gameBreslin Center, East Lansing, MI

Minnesota

Efficiency #94

2025-26: 15-18 · 8-13 conf

Michigan St

Efficiency #11

2025-26: 27-8 · 15-6 conf

Wed, Dec 2 · TBD

62.8

win 15%

Projected

74.8

win 85%

No line posted yet.

Model: MSU −12.0 · total 137.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Michigan St 67.5, Minnesota 65.1 → 64.3 possessions

−8.7

Michigan St offense vs Minnesota defense

+3.2

Minnesota offense vs Michigan St defense

−5.1

Projected total

137.6

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Michigan St offense vs Minnesota defense

+3.2

Minnesota offense vs Michigan St defense

+5.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.7

Michigan St by 12.0

12.0

Minnesota side ◂▸ Michigan St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Michigan St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Michigan St is the faster team (66.8, #249 of 365) and Minnesota the slower (62.9, #364). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

64.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

137.6

model

Projected team totals

62.8 / 74.8

Minnesota / Michigan St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.1#362

Minnesota

67.5#249

Michigan St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Michigan St averages 66.8 possessions per 40, Minnesota 62.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 63 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashMinnesota

Style match: ball movement

Minnesota assists on 71.0% of its made baskets; Michigan St allows assists on 57.2% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 67.6% — both habits push the same way.

ClashMichigan St

Style match: ball movement

Michigan St assists on 67.6% of its made baskets; Minnesota allows assists on 60.4% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 67.5% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageMinnesota

Where Minnesota struggles: the offensive glass

Minnesota rebounds 26.8% of its own misses (#304); Michigan St lets opponents grab 22.4% of their own misses (#1). Expect about 24.0%, 6.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseMichigan St

Michigan St's shot-blocking

Michigan St ranks #19 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.4% of Minnesota's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

ClashMinnesota

Style match: 3-point volume

Minnesota takes 47.1% of its shots from three; Michigan St lets opponents take 46.2% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 49.9% — both habits push the same way.

Minnesota has the ball

OffenseMichigan St allowsvs D1 avg

53.9% #69

48.9% #61

+0.4 pt/100

16.5% #167

14.9% #298

+1.6 pt/100

26.8% #304

22.4% #1

-3.9 pt/100

35.8% #159

30.2% #64

-0.3 pt/100

69.4% #286

—

-0.3 pt/100

Minnesota net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.5 pts/100

Michigan St has the ball

OffenseMinnesota allowsvs D1 avg

53.8% #72

51.9% #207

+2.5 pt/100

17.2% #219

16.9% #162

-0.4 pt/100

37.8% #10

29.5% #137

+2.9 pt/100

35.9% #157

26.9% #21

-0.6 pt/100

76.4% #41

—

+0.4 pt/100

Michigan St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Minnesotaoffense vsMichigan Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Minnesota shoots

34.7

4.9

12.5

47.9

Michigan St allows

28.2

10.0

15.9

46.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.5%#45	59.8%#218	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.7%#69	36.6%#102	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.5%#202	33.2%#34	38.0%
Three	34.2%#164	33.0%#119	33.7%

Michigan Stoffense vsMinnesotadefense

Share of shots by zone

Michigan St shoots

33.3

6.9

23.5

36.3

Minnesota allows

32.6

6.5

19.6

41.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.3%#13	60.9%#268	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.1%#145	48.6%#345	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.8%#155	37.6%#150	38.0%
Three	36.3%#47	34.7%#229	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Minnesota

+1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#111 of 365

Off reb %

26.8%

#304

Def reb %

70.5%

#137

Turnover %

16.5%

#167

Forced TO %

16.9%

#162

FT rate

35.8%

#159

FT allowed

26.9%

#21

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+0.2

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn+0.2

Foul shots allowed+2.1

Michigan St

+5.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#22 of 365

Off reb %

37.8%

#10

Def reb %

77.6%

Turnover %

17.2%

#219

Forced TO %

14.9%

#298

FT rate

35.9%

#157

FT allowed

30.2%

#64

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.4

Defensive rebounding+2.7

Ball security−0.3

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn+0.2

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Michigan St has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.0 (#22 of 365) to Minnesota’s +1.8 (#111).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Minnesota2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Minnesota's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Cade Tyson	G	Sr	6'7"	32-32	36.7	19.6	5.4	2.1	1.6	59.3%	41.3%	5.4	82.2%	29.1%
1	Isaac Asuma	G	So	6'3"	33-33	34.3	10.9	4.0	3.7	2.2	48.9%	30.4%	5.8	74.2%	23.8%
6	Langston Reynolds	G	Sr	6'4"	33-26	33.2	11.6	4.3	4.5	2.6	55.9%	25.6%	1.3	59.2%	24.5%
3	Bobby Durkin	F	Jr	6'7"	33-25	32.8	10.2	3.2	1.8	0.8	58.8%	39.2%	6.2	87.5%	17.9%
5	Jaylen Crocker-Johnson	F	Jr	6'8"	24-24	31.5	13.4	6.8	1.8	1.7	49.3%	32.3%	5.4	71.8%	28.9%
2	Grayson Grove	F	Fr	6'9"	32-12	20.6	4.0	3.2	1.7	0.5	62.0%	26.3%	0.6	25.0%	12.6%
9	Kai Shinholster	G	Fr	6'5"	31-0	13.1	1.8	1.2	1.0	0.4	37.5%	22.5%	1.3	75.0%	13.1%
0	Chansey Willis Jr.	G	Jr	6'2"	7-7	26.6	6.3	3.0	3.3	2.1	43.6%	18.2%	1.6	45.5%	21.6%
22	Robert Vaihola	F	Sr	6'8"	5-5	21.4	5.0	7.6	1.4	1.0	70.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	14.6%
4	Nehemiah Turner	F	So	6'10"	7-1	5.9	0.7	1.6	0.3	0.3	20.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	18.8%
11	Maximus Gizzi	G	Sr	6'1"	10-0	2.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	10.3%
12	RJ Spencer	G	Sr	6'3"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	23.7%
20	BJ Omot	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Chance Stephens	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Max Lorenson	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Michigan St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Jeremy Fears Jr.	G	So	6'2"	35-35	32.4	15.2	2.4	9.4	2.4	47.9%	32.1%	3.1	88.5%	28.9%
55	Coen Carr	F	Jr	6'6"	35-35	29.3	12.0	5.4	1.2	1.4	55.4%	27.6%	2.2	62.9%	24.2%
6	Jordan Scott	F	Fr	6'7"	35-13	20.8	5.8	3.1	1.2	0.9	52.5%	37.0%	2.9	70.2%	17.8%
2	Kur Teng	G	So	6'4"	35-4	17.5	7.3	2.0	1.0	0.8	49.6%	38.1%	4.2	81.0%	27.1%
3	Cam Ward	F	Fr	6'8"	34-0	15.3	5.1	4.2	0.3	0.9	58.9%	0.0%	0.1	51.0%	20.4%
99	Divine Ugochukwu	G	So	6'3"	22-12	16.0	5.1	1.5	1.5	0.7	62.0%	44.2%	2.0	55.6%	17.9%
9	Trey Fort	G	Sr	6'4"	33-6	10.2	4.2	1.3	0.6	0.6	46.2%	34.5%	2.5	88.9%	27.9%
35	Jesse McCulloch	F	Fr	6'10"	28-0	7.4	2.4	1.3	0.2	0.3	57.3%	50.0%	0.6	92.9%	18.1%
10	Denham Wojcik	G	Sr	6'2"	31-0	5.4	0.5	0.3	1.2	0.5	28.6%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	13.2%
20	Nick Sanders	G	Sr	5'10"	14-0	1.7	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	50.0%	50.0%	0.3	—	14.4%
40	Brennan Walton	F	Fr	6'7"	12-0	1.4	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.1	62.5%	50.0%	0.2	—	17.1%
43	Colin Walton	F	Fr	6'7"	12-0	1.4	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0	150.0%	100.0%	0.1	—	3.4%
8	Kaleb Glenn	F	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Minnesota2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Minnesota's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Cade Tyson	G	Sr	6'7"	32-32	36.7	19.6	5.4	2.1	1.6	59.3%	41.3%	5.4	82.2%	29.1%
1	Isaac Asuma	G	So	6'3"	33-33	34.3	10.9	4.0	3.7	2.2	48.9%	30.4%	5.8	74.2%	23.8%
6	Langston Reynolds	G	Sr	6'4"	33-26	33.2	11.6	4.3	4.5	2.6	55.9%	25.6%	1.3	59.2%	24.5%
3	Bobby Durkin	F	Jr	6'7"	33-25	32.8	10.2	3.2	1.8	0.8	58.8%	39.2%	6.2	87.5%	17.9%
5	Jaylen Crocker-Johnson	F	Jr	6'8"	24-24	31.5	13.4	6.8	1.8	1.7	49.3%	32.3%	5.4	71.8%	28.9%
2	Grayson Grove	F	Fr	6'9"	32-12	20.6	4.0	3.2	1.7	0.5	62.0%	26.3%	0.6	25.0%	12.6%
9	Kai Shinholster	G	Fr	6'5"	31-0	13.1	1.8	1.2	1.0	0.4	37.5%	22.5%	1.3	75.0%	13.1%
0	Chansey Willis Jr.	G	Jr	6'2"	7-7	26.6	6.3	3.0	3.3	2.1	43.6%	18.2%	1.6	45.5%	21.6%
22	Robert Vaihola	F	Sr	6'8"	5-5	21.4	5.0	7.6	1.4	1.0	70.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	14.6%
4	Nehemiah Turner	F	So	6'10"	7-1	5.9	0.7	1.6	0.3	0.3	20.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	18.8%
11	Maximus Gizzi	G	Sr	6'1"	10-0	2.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	10.3%
12	RJ Spencer	G	Sr	6'3"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	23.7%
20	BJ Omot	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Chance Stephens	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Max Lorenson	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Minnesota

Against the spread

Season

14-18-1

Home

9-8

Road

5-5-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −2.3

Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-20

Home

6-11

Road

4-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −7.5

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 1	BaylorAdjEM #55	N	L 48–67	+3.5	L−15.5	146.5	U115	80.7	112.7	59.5
Mar 11	RutgersAdjEM #192	N	L 67–72	−6.0	L−11.0	136.0	O139	104.9	112.7	63.9
Mar 7	NorthwesternAdjEM #78	H	W 67–66	−4.0	L−3.0	133.5	U133	121.5	119.7	55.1
Mar 4	IndianaAdjEM #45	A	L 47–77	+6.5	L−23.5	138.5	U124	76.7	125.7	61.3
Feb 28	UCLAAdjEM #37	H	W 78–73	+1.5	W+6.5	135.5	O151	140.4	131.4	55.6
Feb 24	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	A	L 67–77	+22.5	W+12.5	146.0	U144	103.7	119.2	64.6
Feb 21	RutgersAdjEM #192	H	W 80–61	−8.5	W+10.5	133.5	O141	136.6	104.2	58.6
Feb 17	OregonAdjEM #143	A	W 61–44	+3.5	W+20.5	134.5	U105	101.9	73.5	59.9
Feb 14	WashingtonAdjEM #59	A	L 57–69	+7.0	L−5.0	138.5	U126	95.1	115.1	59.9
Feb 8	MarylandAdjEM #198	H	L 62–67	−10.0	L−15.0	139.0	U129	113.0	122.1	54.9

Michigan St

Against the spread

Season

17-17-1

Home

7-10

Road

5-4-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

16-19

Home

7-10

Road

6-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +7.3

Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 7 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 27	#2UConnAdjEM #10	N	L 63–67	+2.0	L−2.0	136.0	U130	99.1	105.4	63.6
Mar 21	#6LouisvilleAdjEM #14	N	W 77–69	−5.0	W+3.0	151.0	U146	115.0	103.1	66.9
Mar 19	#14N Dakota StAdjEM #90	N	W 92–67	−16.0	W+9.0	144.5	O159	126.4	92.0	72.8
Mar 13	UCLAAdjEM #37	N	L 84–88	−5.0	L−9.0	141.5	O172	125.9	131.9	66.7
Mar 8	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	A	L 80–90	+10.5	W+0.5	152.0	O170	112.5	126.5	71.1
Mar 5	RutgersAdjEM #192	H	W 91–87	−19.5	L−15.5	142.0	O178	126.1	120.6	72.1
Mar 1	IndianaAdjEM #45	A	W 77–64	−3.0	W+10.0	144.0	U141	128.1	106.5	60.1
Feb 26	#8PurdueAdjEM #9	A	W 76–74	+7.0	W+9.0	143.0	O150	121.7	118.5	62.4
Feb 22	Ohio StateAdjEM #31	H	W 66–60	−10.0	L−4.0	147.0	U126	108.2	98.4	61.0
Feb 17	UCLAAdjEM #37	H	W 82–59	−8.0	W+15.0	139.0	O141	125.3	90.1	65.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MinnesotaMichigan St

Efficiency

109.8

116.5

105.4

99.2

65.1

67.5

—

Shooting

53.9%

53.8%

56.2%

53.4%

34.2%

36.3%

69.4%

76.4%

35.8%

35.9%

Ball control & glass

16.5%

17.2%

16.9%

14.9%

26.8%

37.8%

29.5%

22.4%

8.8%

9.7%

12.2%

8.2%

Style

47.1%

36.4%

41.6%

41.3%

11.1%

19.7%

71.0%

67.6%

16.4%

31.5%

Roster

2.87

2.12

6'5.9"

6'4.9"

—

73.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Minnesota

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Minnesota's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Michigan St

Returning minutes: 73.0%Returning production: 67.2%

Lost

Jaxon Kohler 27.7 mpg, 12.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Carson Cooper 26.7 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Kaleb Glenn no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 73% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Feb 4	2025-26	Michigan St 73 – 76 Minnesota

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.