Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Texas State Bobcats basketball preview & prediction
Fri, Nov 13 · 8:00 PM ET · Strahan Arena at the University Events Center, San Marcos, TX
Non-conferenceYouTubeStrahan Arena at the University Events Center, San Marcos, TX
Southern Miss
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #219
@
Texas St
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #190
Fri, Nov 13 · 8:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Southern Miss is the faster team (70.3, #197 of 365) and Texas St the slower (62.8, #349). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.0
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.4#126
Southern Miss
68.2#317
Texas St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Texas St has the ball+6.9
Southern Miss has the ball−14.3
Texas St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 53.1% #137 · USM allows 56.9% #295+4.9
✓Wins second chancesOR% 32.0% #172 · USM allows 41.4% #324+2.2
✗Coughs it upTO% 19.1% #218 · USM forces 21.3% #78 · ~14 turnovers−2.1
✓Gets to the lineFTR 42.9% #105 · USM allows 70.6% #355 · FT 71.4% #151+2.0
Southern Miss has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 25.6% #339 · TXST forces 23.9% #42 · ~18 turnovers−6.6
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 44.2% #276 · TXST allows 44.1% #68−6.5
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 42.3% #113 · TXST allows 27.5% #68 · FT 50.0% #350−1.5
✓Wins second chancesOR% 29.7% #216 · TXST allows 35.7% #262+0.3
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootSouthern Missoffense vsTexas Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Southern Miss shoots
21.6
21.6
10.8
45.9
Texas St allows
41.7
4.2
22.9
31.3
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 25.0%#357 | 55.0%#134 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 75.0%#17 | 50.0%#243 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 0.0%#327 | 45.5%#265 | 34.7% |
| Three | 40.0%#56 | 17.6%#6 | 32.5% |
Texas Stoffense vsSouthern Missdefense
Share of shots by zone
Texas St shoots
48.9
14.9
10.6
25.5
Southern Miss allows
58.8
17.6
5.9
17.6
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 47.8%#291 | 75.0%#340 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 57.1%#53 | 50.0%#243 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 80.0%#9 | 50.0%#285 | 34.7% |
| Three | 30.8%#213 | 33.3%#185 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineSouthern Miss
−14.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#337 of 365
Off reb %
29.7%
#216
Def reb %
58.6%
#324
Turnover %
25.6%
#339
Forced TO %
21.3%
#78
FT rate
42.3%
#113
FT allowed
70.6%
#355
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−3.3
Ball security−5.2
Forcing turnovers+2.3
Foul shots drawn+1.3
Foul shots allowed−8.5
Texas St
+6.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#87 of 365
Off reb %
32.0%
#172
Def reb %
64.3%
#262
Turnover %
19.1%
#218
Forced TO %
23.9%
#42
FT rate
42.9%
#105
FT allowed
27.5%
#68
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+4.1
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed+2.7
Texas St has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.5 (#87 of 365) to Southern Miss’s −14.0 (#337).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Southern Miss2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 2-2 | 24.5 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 42.3% | 27.3% | 5.5 | 83.3% | 21.2% | Active | |
| 8 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 2-2 | 23.5 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 55.3% | 50.0% | 5.0 | — | 31.6% | Active | |
| 10 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 2-2 | 20.0 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 53.6% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 29.8% | Active | |
| 20 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 2-2 | 19.0 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 54.2% | 50.0% | 3.0 | 83.3% | 21.5% | Active | |
| 6 | F | Jr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 29.2% | 16.7% | 3.0 | 100.0% | 23.9% | Active | |
| 49 | C | Jr | 7'0" | 2-2 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 8.5% | Active | |
| 24 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 15.5 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 35.7% | Active | |
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 62.5% | 50.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 16.5% | Active | |
| 0 | G | So | 6'6" | 2-0 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 66.7% | 16.2% | Active | |
| 23 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 11.0 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 100.0% | 0.5 | — | 9.8% | Active | |
| 4 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 41.7% | 25.0% | 2.0 | 66.7% | 32.4% | Active | |
| 22 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.8% | Active | |
| 5 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 64.3% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 0.0% | 38.9% | Active | |
| 13 | G | Fr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 20.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 31.5% | Active | |
| 7 | C | Sr | 6'11" | 2-0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 7.9% | Active | |
| 11 | G | So | 6'2" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 33.8% | Missed last |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesSouthern Miss
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +6.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −6.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | #18Iowa State | A | L 57–83 | +32.0 | W+6.0 | 146.0 | U140 | 81.1 | 118.1 | 70.3 |
| Nov 2 | Tougaloo Bulldogs | H | W 82–35 | — | — | — | — | 106.4 | 45.4 | 77.1 |
| Mar 8 | Troy | N | L 70–78 | +5.5 | L−2.5 | 143.0 | O148 | 98.2 | 109.4 | 71.3 |
| Mar 7 | App State | N | W 86–73 | +5.0 | W+18.0 | 137.5 | O159 | 125.4 | 106.5 | 68.6 |
| Mar 6 | Texas St | N | W 81–77 | +1.5 | W+5.5 | 140.0 | O158 | 117.3 | 111.5 | 69.0 |
| Mar 5 | James Madison | N | W 86–80 | +2.0 | W+8.0 | 143.5 | O166 | 119.4 | 111.1 | 72.0 |
| Feb 27 | South Alabama | A | W 68–55 | +4.0 | W+17.0 | 142.0 | U123 | 105.1 | 85.0 | 64.7 |
| Feb 24 | Arkansas St | A | L 84–89 | +9.0 | W+4.0 | 158.0 | O173 | 106.4 | 112.8 | 78.9 |
| Feb 21 | Old Dominion | H | W 86–81 | −5.0 | P0.0 | 148.0 | O167 | 106.1 | 100.0 | 81.0 |
| Feb 14 | Troy | H | W 69–65 | +5.0 | W+9.0 | 144.5 | U134 | 104.4 | 98.3 | 66.1 |
Texas St
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +1.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −20.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | UT Rio Grande | A | W 72–65 | −5.5 | W+1.5 | 138.0 | U137 | — | — | — |
| Nov 5 | Howard Payne Yellow Jackets | H | W 135–66 | — | — | — | — | 147.9 | 72.3 | 91.3 |
| Nov 2 | Texas A&M-CC | H | W 67–55 | −10.5 | W+1.5 | 142.5 | U122 | 106.7 | 87.6 | 62.8 |
| Mar 6 | Southern Miss | N | L 77–81 | −1.5 | L−5.5 | 140.0 | O158 | 111.5 | 117.3 | 69.0 |
| Feb 27 | App State | H | W 60–57 | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 135.0 | U117 | 98.7 | 93.8 | 60.8 |
| Feb 21 | Louisiana | A | L 54–67 | −3.0 | L−16.0 | 134.0 | U121 | 90.3 | 112.1 | 59.8 |
| Feb 19 | South Alabama | A | W 90–82 OT | +4.0 | W+12.0 | 137.5 | O172 | 123.5 | 112.6 | 72.8 |
| Feb 14 | UL Monroe | H | W 95–84 | −14.0 | L−3.0 | 149.0 | O179 | 148.1 | 131.0 | 64.1 |
| Feb 11 | Troy | H | W 74–62 | +5.0 | W+17.0 | 140.5 | U136 | 116.2 | 97.4 | 63.7 |
| Feb 7 | W Michigan | H | W 77–61 | −6.5 | W+9.5 | 146.5 | U138 | 119.8 | 94.9 | 64.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSouthern MissTexas St
Efficiency
102.2
103.2
105.7
105.0
71.4
68.2
18.9
-1.6
Shooting
44.2%
53.1%
34.4%
55.6%
40.0%
30.8%
50.0%
71.4%
42.3%
42.9%
Ball control & glass
25.6%
19.1%
21.3%
23.9%
29.7%
32.0%
41.4%
35.7%
14.2%
8.0%
28.1%
8.3%
Style
38.5%
26.5%
35.1%
44.8%
1.8%
11.9%
68.4%
54.2%
48.5%
45.8%
Roster
3.39
2.60
6'5.8"
6'5.1"
15.1%
40.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSouthern Miss
Returning minutes: 15.1%Returning production: 15.6%
Lost
- Tylik Weeks 32.6 mpg, 19.2 ppg · transferred to Memphis
- Dylan Brumfield 31.2 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Djahi Binet 26.4 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Curt Lewis 23.2 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Israel Hart 21.0 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Chiante' Tramble 12.0 mpg, 3.5 ppg · transferred to N Colorado
Added
- Cameron Wallace from Little Rock · 28.6 mpg, 12.7 ppg last season
- Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt from Hampton · 23.8 mpg, 10.2 ppg last season
- Marcus Overstreet from San José St · 8.2 mpg, 2.2 ppg last season
- DeAndre Harvey no D1 minutes last season
- Max Blank no D1 minutes last season
- Dorion Bowen no D1 minutes last season
Returns 15% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Texas St
Returning minutes: 54.2%Returning production: 61.6%
Lost
- Kyndall Davis 22.0 mpg, 5.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Franck Emmou 21.8 mpg, 7.0 ppg · transferred to Tarleton St
- Jalen Bolden 16.3 mpg, 5.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tay Knox 14.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Makai Willis 12.8 mpg, 6.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaelyn Lee 4.3 mpg, 1.5 ppg · transferred to Prairie View
Added
- KJ Younger from UNC Greensboro · 28.5 mpg, 15.1 ppg last season
- Quel'Ron House from S Illinois · 28.2 mpg, 14.2 ppg last season
- Ronald Jessamy from Bakersfield · 25.2 mpg, 13.0 ppg last season
- Paul Djobet from Omaha · 18.1 mpg, 10.6 ppg last season
- Caleb Steger from Boston College · 11.3 mpg, 3.3 ppg last season
- King Sanders no D1 minutes last season
Returns 54% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fri, Mar 6 | 2025-26 | Southern Miss 81 – 77 Texas St(N) |
| Sat, Jan 17 | 2025-26 | Southern Miss 67 – 74 Texas St |
| Thu, Jan 8 | 2025-26 | Texas St 70 – 80 Southern Miss |
More games on Fri, Nov 13
- West Florida vs Cleveland St · 3:00 PM ET
- Texas A&M-CC at Florida St · 5:00 PM ET
- North Alabama at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
- Georgetown at Clemson · 6:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Rutgers · 6:00 PM ET
- Pitt at Butler · 6:30 PM ET
- Merrimack at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Georgia at North Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Tennessee St at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
- Long Island at Fordham · 7:00 PM ET
- Harvard at G Washington · 7:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Illinois · 7:00 PM ET
- Troy at NC State · 7:00 PM ET
- Mount St Marys at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Yale at Northeastern · 7:00 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Elon · 7:00 PM ET
- Iona at Hofstra · 7:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
- Prairie View at Vanderbilt · 7:00 PM ET
- FIU at FGCU · 7:00 PM ET
- Columbia at Bucknell · 7:00 PM ET
- Marist at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Northern Iowa at Michigan St · 7:00 PM ET
- App State at Charlotte · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio State at UConn · 7:30 PM ET
- SE Missouri at MTSU · 7:30 PM ET
- NC Central at Liberty · 7:30 PM ET
- South Dakota at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
- FDU at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- SIUE at Duke · 8:00 PM ET
- Virginia at Maryland · 8:00 PM ET
- C Arkansas at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
- Milwaukee at TCU · 8:00 PM ET
- GA Southern at UCF · 8:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Tarleton St · 8:00 PM ET
- Wright St at Samford · 8:00 PM ET
- Illinois St at N Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas Southern at Murray St · 8:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood at Omaha · 8:45 PM ET
- Seton Hall at Alabama · 9:00 PM ET
- Xavier vs Mississippi St · 9:00 PM ET
- DePaul at Northwestern · 9:00 PM ET
- Arizona at Auburn · 9:00 PM ET
- Ball State at SMU · 9:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
- Stanford at UNLV · 9:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
- Miss Valley St at Oregon St · 9:30 PM ET
- UIC at Saint Mary's · 10:00 PM ET
- East Texas A&M at Portland · 10:00 PM ET
- UC San Diego at Utah State · 10:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at CA Baptist · 10:30 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.