CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCabot Center, Boston, MA

Yale

Efficiency #57

2025-26: 24-7 · 12-4 conf

Northeastern

Efficiency #274

2025-26: 7-24 · 3-17 conf

Fri, Nov 13 · TBD

80.9

win 69%

Projected

75.0

win 31%

No line posted yet.

Model: YALE −5.9 · total 155.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Northeastern 69.8, Yale 66.6 → 68.1 possessions

−0.5

Northeastern offense vs Yale defense

−0.8

Yale offense vs Northeastern defense

+9.0

Projected total

155.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Northeastern offense vs Yale defense

−0.8

Yale offense vs Northeastern defense

−9.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Yale by 5.9

5.9

Yale side ◂▸ Northeastern side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Northeastern.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Northeastern is the faster team (69.6, #108 of 365) and Yale the slower (65.6, #315). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

155.9

model

Projected team totals

80.9 / 75.0

Yale / Northeastern

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.6#316

Yale

69.8#63

Northeastern

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageYale

Where Yale scores: shooting

Yale shoots an effective 55.6% (#26); Northeastern allows 56.4% (#351). Expect about 56.4%, 5.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +7.3 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Yale) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Yale at about 34.0% of its shots from three, Northeastern about 41.6%.

TurnoversYale

Yale protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.2% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for Yale's offense.

ClashYale

Style match: 3-point volume

Yale rarely shoots threes (36.1% of its shots); Northeastern runs teams off the line (35.2% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 34.0% — both habits push the same way.

GlassYale

Yale owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 32.9% is worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions for Yale's offense.

AdvantageNortheastern

Where Northeastern struggles: the offensive glass

Northeastern rebounds 27.3% of its own misses (#286); Yale lets opponents grab 29.7% of their own misses (#147). Expect about 27.9%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.5 points per 100 possessions.

Yale has the ball

OffenseNortheastern allowsvs D1 avg

55.6% #26

56.4% #351

+7.3 pt/100

14.0% #22

16.8% #170

+1.9 pt/100

34.2% #62

30.2% #169

+1.5 pt/100

35.1% #172

41.9% #320

+0.5 pt/100

74.6% #100

—

+0.2 pt/100

Yale net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +11.5 pts/100

Northeastern has the ball

OffenseYale allowsvs D1 avg

52.4% #130

51.7% #192

+1.2 pt/100

16.4% #162

16.3% #204

+0.7 pt/100

27.3% #286

29.7% #147

-1.5 pt/100

29.4% #324

26.8% #19

-0.9 pt/100

69.0% #299

—

-0.3 pt/100

Northeastern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Yaleoffense vsNortheasterndefense

Share of shots by zone

Yale shoots

41.9

5.8

15.6

36.7

Northeastern allows

43.5

6.2

14.9

35.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#107	63.5%#335	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.7%#28	45.5%#314	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.5%#133	47.9%#364	38.0%
Three	39.4%#3	35.8%#297	33.7%

Northeasternoffense vsYaledefense

Share of shots by zone

Northeastern shoots

42.0

5.9

15.1

37.1

Yale allows

35.7

4.5

15.7

44.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#103	57.9%#147	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.7%#249	35.3%#65	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.7%#157	41.0%#277	38.0%
Three	33.7%#187	35.0%#250	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Yale

+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#17 of 365

Off reb %

34.2%

#62

Def reb %

70.3%

#147

Turnover %

14.0%

#22

Forced TO %

16.3%

#204

FT rate

35.1%

#172

FT allowed

26.8%

#19

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.2

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+1.9

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+2.2

Northeastern

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#321 of 365

Off reb %

27.3%

#286

Def reb %

69.8%

#169

Turnover %

16.4%

#162

Forced TO %

16.8%

#170

FT rate

29.4%

#324

FT allowed

41.9%

#320

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.0

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+0.3

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed−1.7

Yale has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.3 (#17 of 365) to Northeastern’s −3.7 (#321).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Yale2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Isaac Celiscar	F	So	6'6"	31-31	31.1	13.2	6.3	3.2	1.3	62.1%	40.7%	1.9	79.8%	22.1%
11	Trevor Mullin	G	Jr	6'1"	31-30	27.1	11.5	2.4	2.7	1.1	52.3%	38.2%	5.1	89.3%	25.0%
14	Casey Simmons	G	Sr	6'7"	31-31	26.6	10.5	3.9	1.1	0.6	60.0%	38.3%	1.5	65.5%	21.2%
10	Samson Aletan	C	Jr	6'10"	29-29	25.8	7.8	5.8	1.2	0.9	57.8%	—	0.0	58.5%	17.9%
3	Jordan Brathwaite	G	So	6'4"	31-1	19.0	6.6	1.8	1.0	0.6	56.8%	44.1%	3.3	87.5%	20.0%
9	Riley Fox	F	So	6'6"	31-2	18.0	10.0	2.1	0.7	0.4	54.6%	37.2%	3.9	80.4%	30.7%
44	Devon Arlington	G	Sr	6'3"	30-1	14.1	2.8	2.0	1.5	1.1	42.2%	34.1%	1.4	59.1%	18.0%
7	Jack Sullivan	F	Fr	6'11"	20-0	6.2	1.9	1.0	0.2	0.3	46.1%	28.0%	1.3	100.0%	20.7%
0	Courtney Wallace	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	6.5	2.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	67.5%	33.3%	0.8	100.0%	20.2%
12	Daniel Ogunyemi	F	Fr	6'7"	10-0	4.9	2.6	1.8	0.3	0.1	64.7%	—	0.0	80.0%	23.0%
22	Jeannot Basima	G	Jr	6'4"	9-0	4.1	1.2	0.6	0.4	0.3	45.0%	50.0%	0.2	100.0%	20.6%
4	Alvin Loving	G	Fr	6'4"	9-0	3.9	1.6	0.6	0.4	0.1	50.0%	40.0%	0.6	100.0%	21.5%
1	Jacob Tsai	G	Fr	5'11"	3-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	29.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Northeastern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Mike Loughnane	G	Jr	6'4"	31-23	30.9	10.2	2.9	3.8	1.6	52.7%	35.1%	3.6	78.8%	20.0%
8	William Kermoury	G	Jr	6'5"	27-24	26.9	13.1	3.2	2.3	1.4	57.9%	40.2%	6.8	71.7%	26.7%
7	Youri Fritz	F	Sr	6'9"	25-23	25.9	9.8	5.4	1.5	1.6	59.8%	33.3%	0.1	52.1%	22.1%
1	Xavier Abreu	G	Fr	6'3"	29-9	21.0	12.6	2.7	1.0	1.1	50.3%	28.3%	3.2	75.6%	34.8%
13	Luca Soroa Schaller	G	So	6'7"	29-12	20.7	5.6	3.4	2.2	1.9	40.0%	22.6%	1.8	73.7%	22.0%
2	Ryan Williams	G	So	6'4"	28-10	14.7	7.4	1.1	1.6	0.6	62.3%	42.5%	2.6	90.9%	24.2%
21	Petar Pinter	C	Fr	6'11"	26-14	14.3	3.3	2.1	0.4	0.7	55.1%	—	0.0	55.0%	14.7%
9	Ty Francis	F	Fr	6'7"	24-5	15.0	4.5	2.6	0.4	0.6	52.9%	21.1%	0.8	57.6%	18.5%
0	Xander Alarie	F	Fr	6'8"	11-11	27.7	10.3	7.4	1.5	2.2	45.3%	26.3%	1.7	85.7%	24.1%
12	Liam Koelsch	C	Fr	6'9"	26-1	8.6	1.8	2.3	0.2	0.1	65.7%	—	0.0	8.7%	12.4%
10	Miles Newton	G	Fr	6'3"	9-7	16.8	5.4	2.0	0.9	0.8	58.3%	35.3%	1.9	70.0%	18.0%
22	Haris Elezovic	F	Sr	6'8"	17-0	8.1	2.2	1.5	0.5	0.4	45.7%	25.0%	0.5	85.7%	18.0%
3	LA Pratt	G	Sr	6'5"	3-3	33.0	17.0	1.7	3.3	2.0	51.2%	27.3%	3.7	90.9%	31.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Yale2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Isaac Celiscar	F	So	6'6"	31-31	31.1	13.2	6.3	3.2	1.3	62.1%	40.7%	1.9	79.8%	22.1%
11	Trevor Mullin	G	Jr	6'1"	31-30	27.1	11.5	2.4	2.7	1.1	52.3%	38.2%	5.1	89.3%	25.0%
14	Casey Simmons	G	Sr	6'7"	31-31	26.6	10.5	3.9	1.1	0.6	60.0%	38.3%	1.5	65.5%	21.2%
10	Samson Aletan	C	Jr	6'10"	29-29	25.8	7.8	5.8	1.2	0.9	57.8%	—	0.0	58.5%	17.9%
3	Jordan Brathwaite	G	So	6'4"	31-1	19.0	6.6	1.8	1.0	0.6	56.8%	44.1%	3.3	87.5%	20.0%
9	Riley Fox	F	So	6'6"	31-2	18.0	10.0	2.1	0.7	0.4	54.6%	37.2%	3.9	80.4%	30.7%
44	Devon Arlington	G	Sr	6'3"	30-1	14.1	2.8	2.0	1.5	1.1	42.2%	34.1%	1.4	59.1%	18.0%
7	Jack Sullivan	F	Fr	6'11"	20-0	6.2	1.9	1.0	0.2	0.3	46.1%	28.0%	1.3	100.0%	20.7%
0	Courtney Wallace	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	6.5	2.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	67.5%	33.3%	0.8	100.0%	20.2%
12	Daniel Ogunyemi	F	Fr	6'7"	10-0	4.9	2.6	1.8	0.3	0.1	64.7%	—	0.0	80.0%	23.0%
22	Jeannot Basima	G	Jr	6'4"	9-0	4.1	1.2	0.6	0.4	0.3	45.0%	50.0%	0.2	100.0%	20.6%
4	Alvin Loving	G	Fr	6'4"	9-0	3.9	1.6	0.6	0.4	0.1	50.0%	40.0%	0.6	100.0%	21.5%
1	Jacob Tsai	G	Fr	5'11"	3-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	29.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Yale

Against the spread

Season

12-17

Home

4-7

Road

5-7

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −1.4

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 10 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

4-7

Road

7-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −1.8

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	H	L 67–68	−4.5	L−5.5	148.5	U135	103.0	104.5	65.1
Mar 15	PennAdjEM #162	N	L 84–88 OT	−9.5	L−13.5	144.0	O172	116.1	121.7	72.3
Mar 14	CornellAdjEM #135	N	W 88–76	−3.5	W+8.5	163.5	O164	144.9	125.2	60.7
Mar 7	PrincetonAdjEM #251	H	W 78–53	−14.0	W+11.0	137.0	U131	117.2	79.6	66.6
Feb 28	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	A	W 60–54	−6.5	L−0.5	146.0	U114	98.9	89.0	60.7
Feb 27	CornellAdjEM #135	A	L 69–72	−4.0	L−7.0	164.0	U141	107.4	112.1	64.3
Feb 21	PennAdjEM #162	H	W 74–70	−8.5	L−4.5	149.5	U144	111.1	105.1	66.6
Feb 14	HarvardAdjEM #133	A	W 76–75 OT	−5.5	L−4.5	139.5	O151	115.8	114.2	65.7
Feb 13	DartmouthAdjEM #254	A	W 83–70	−10.0	W+3.0	151.5	O153	121.5	102.5	68.3
Feb 9	HowardAdjEM #160	A	W 87–81 OT	−7.0	L−1.0	147.5	O168	120.7	112.4	72.1

Northeastern

Against the spread

Season

11-19-1

Home

2-10

Road

7-8-1

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −4.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-11

Home

9-3

Road

8-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −1.4

Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	DrexelAdjEM #214	N	L 77–84	+5.0	L−2.0	140.5	O161	112.0	122.2	68.8
Mar 6	NC A&TAdjEM #271	N	W 88–72	−2.0	W+14.0	152.5	O160	122.9	100.5	71.6
Mar 3	MonmouthAdjEM #173	H	L 83–89	+4.0	L−2.0	149.5	O172	123.9	132.9	67.0
Feb 28	HamptonAdjEM #268	A	L 65–76	+4.5	L−6.5	146.5	U141	98.6	115.2	65.9
Feb 26	William & MaryAdjEM #127	A	L 77–84	+11.0	W+4.0	164.5	U161	96.4	105.1	79.9
Feb 21	HofstraAdjEM #69	H	L 68–82	+7.5	L−6.5	145.0	O150	106.1	128.0	64.1
Feb 19	DrexelAdjEM #214	H	L 61–70	−1.0	L−10.0	145.0	U131	91.0	104.4	67.0
Feb 12	William & MaryAdjEM #127	H	L 67–94	+5.5	L−21.5	167.5	U161	96.2	135.0	69.7
Feb 7	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	A	L 55–69	+4.0	L−10.0	153.5	U124	82.0	102.9	67.1
Feb 5	HofstraAdjEM #69	A	L 63–80	+9.0	L−8.0	153.5	U143	94.9	120.5	66.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

YaleNortheastern

Efficiency

116.5

107.7

108.1

113.7

66.6

69.8

—

Shooting

55.6%

52.4%

53.6%

39.4%

33.7%

74.6%

69.0%

35.1%

29.4%

Ball control & glass

14.0%

16.4%

16.3%

16.8%

34.2%

27.3%

29.7%

30.2%

7.7%

9.3%

9.1%

9.5%

Style

36.1%

37.8%

44.4%

47.0%

9.8%

15.3%

56.0%

55.7%

29.0%

33.4%

Roster

2.73

2.26

6'5.5"

6'6.1"

84.0%

90.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Yale

Returning minutes: 84.0%Returning production: 79.7%

Lost

Nick Townsend 32.4 mpg, 15.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Northeastern

Returning minutes: 90.0%Returning production: 93.2%

Lost

JB Frankel 20.0 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to Boston College

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.