Northern Iowa Panthers vs Michigan State Spartans basketball preview & prediction
Fri, Nov 13 · 7:00 PM ET · Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI
Non-conferenceFS1Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI
Northern Iowa
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #113
@
5Michigan St
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #8
Fri, Nov 13 · 7:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Northern Iowa is the faster team (75.0, #66 of 365) and Michigan St the slower (72.9, #114). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.5
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.8#231
Northern Iowa
71.3#132
Michigan St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Michigan St has the ball+23.2
Northern Iowa has the ball−6.5
Michigan St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 62.6% #17 · UNI allows 62.0% #336+13.2
✓Wins second chancesOR% 46.9% #10 · UNI allows 28.6% #132+4.0
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.8% #176 · UNI forces 12.0% #330 · ~10 turnovers+3.6
✓Gets to the lineFTR 53.8% #35 · UNI allows 81.5% #359 · FT 59.4% #315+2.4
Northern Iowa has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 48.6% #202 · MSU allows 39.4% #22−6.6
✗Few second chancesOR% 26.2% #272 · MSU allows 22.7% #38−3.4
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 12.0% #24 · MSU forces 19.2% #130 · ~11 turnovers+2.5
✓Gets to the lineFTR 27.5% #283 · MSU allows 46.9% #282 · FT 84.2% #18+1.0
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootNorthern Iowaoffense vs#5Michigan Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Northern Iowa shoots
38.3
6.7
11.7
43.3
Michigan St allows
36.8
7.9
18.4
36.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.9%#136 | 35.7%#8 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 0.0%#323 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 28.6%#224 | 21.4%#66 | 34.7% |
| Three | 31.0%#209 | 26.2%#68 | 32.5% |
#5Michigan Stoffense vsNorthern Iowadefense
Share of shots by zone
Michigan St shoots
40.5
7.6
11.4
40.5
Northern Iowa allows
29.4
2.0
5.9
62.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 75.0%#14 | 53.3%#115 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#75 | 100.0%#348 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 22.2%#270 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 40.4%#55 | 45.5%#344 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineNorthern Iowa
−14.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#345 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#272
Def reb %
71.4%
#132
Turnover %
12.0%
#24
Forced TO %
12.0%
#330
FT rate
27.5%
#283
FT allowed
81.5%
#359
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.8
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+4.4
Forcing turnovers−4.3
Foul shots drawn−2.6
Foul shots allowed−11.3
#5Michigan St
+11.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#47 of 365
Off reb %
46.9%
#10
Def reb %
77.3%
#38
Turnover %
17.8%
#176
Forced TO %
19.2%
#130
FT rate
53.8%
#35
FT allowed
46.9%
#282
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+5.1
Defensive rebounding+3.0
Ball security+0.3
Forcing turnovers+0.8
Foul shots drawn+4.3
Foul shots allowed−2.3
Michigan St has more extra scoring chances per game: +11.1 (#47 of 365) to Northern Iowa’s −14.5 (#345).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notNorthern Iowa2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-2 | 28.0 | 16.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 40.4% | 16.7% | 3.0 | 84.6% | 30.0% | Active | |
| 3 | G | Jr | 6'8" | 2-2 | 27.0 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 61.8% | 35.7% | 7.0 | 0.0% | 16.9% | Active | |
| 8 | G | So | 6'4" | 2-0 | 25.5 | 17.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 65.9% | 41.7% | 6.0 | 66.7% | 30.2% | Active | |
| 31 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 2-1 | 19.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 68.8% | 33.3% | 3.0 | 90.9% | 28.9% | Active | |
| 9 | G | So | 6'3" | 2-0 | 17.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 45.0% | 25.0% | 2.0 | 0.0% | 15.0% | Active | |
| 2 | G | So | 6'4" | 2-2 | 15.5 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 40.6% | 16.7% | 3.0 | 75.0% | 28.3% | Active | |
| 35 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 2-2 | 13.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 44.4% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 20.1% | Active | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 80.0% | 18.6% | Active | |
| 32 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 27.9% | Active | |
| 22 | F | Sr | 6'6" | 2-1 | 10.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 16.8% | Active | |
| 7 | F | So | 6'5" | 2-0 | 9.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 10.2% | Active | |
| 24 | F | So | 6'8" | 1-0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 62.5% | 33.3% | 3.0 | 50.0% | 20.7% | Missed last | |
| 5 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 62.5% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 26.9% | Active | |
| 15 | G | Jr | 6'8" | 1-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 18.1% | Missed last |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesNorthern Iowa
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −9.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +30.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Furman | A | L 83–98 | +5.5 | L−9.5 | 150.5 | O181 | 110.7 | 130.7 | 75.0 |
| Nov 3 | Cornell (IA) Rams | H | W 106–70 | — | — | — | — | 118.8 | 78.4 | 89.3 |
| Mar 20 | #5St John's | N | L 53–79 | +10.5 | L−15.5 | 133.5 | U132 | 84.0 | 125.2 | 63.1 |
| Mar 8 | UIC | N | W 84–69 | −3.0 | W+12.0 | 124.5 | O153 | 141.8 | 116.5 | 59.2 |
| Mar 7 | Bradley | N | W 73–69 | −4.5 | L−0.5 | 126.5 | O142 | 115.3 | 108.9 | 63.3 |
| Mar 6 | Illinois St | N | W 74–52 | −2.0 | W+20.0 | 129.5 | U126 | 118.9 | 83.5 | 62.3 |
| Mar 5 | Evansville | N | W 68–59 | −15.0 | L−6.0 | 128.5 | U127 | 108.3 | 94.0 | 62.8 |
| Mar 1 | Drake | A | W 75–53 | −4.0 | W+18.0 | 137.5 | U128 | 119.1 | 84.2 | 63.0 |
| Feb 25 | Illinois St | H | L 69–71 | −5.0 | L−7.0 | 132.0 | O140 | 111.1 | 114.3 | 62.1 |
| Feb 21 | S Illinois | H | L 57–59 | −6.5 | L−8.5 | 134.5 | U116 | 92.9 | 96.2 | 61.3 |
#5Michigan St
Against the spread
Season
2-0
Home
2-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-0
avg cover +5.5
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −0.8
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | #2Duke | N | W 79–73 | +7.5 | W+13.5 | 147.0 | O152 | 108.3 | 100.1 | 72.9 |
| Nov 5 | Toledo | H | W 91–61 | −26.0 | W+4.0 | 155.0 | U152 | 124.0 | 83.1 | 73.4 |
| Nov 2 | Quinnipiac | H | W 96–59 | −30.0 | W+7.0 | 153.5 | O155 | 132.6 | 81.5 | 72.4 |
| Mar 27 | #2UConn | N | L 63–67 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 136.0 | U130 | 99.1 | 105.4 | 63.6 |
| Mar 21 | #6Louisville | N | W 77–69 | −5.0 | W+3.0 | 151.0 | U146 | 115.0 | 103.1 | 66.9 |
| Mar 19 | #14N Dakota St | N | W 92–67 | −16.0 | W+9.0 | 144.5 | O159 | 126.4 | 92.0 | 72.8 |
| Mar 13 | UCLA | N | L 84–88 | −5.0 | L−9.0 | 141.5 | O172 | 125.9 | 131.9 | 66.7 |
| Mar 8 | #3Michigan | A | L 80–90 | +10.5 | W+0.5 | 152.0 | O170 | 112.5 | 126.5 | 71.1 |
| Mar 5 | Rutgers | H | W 91–87 | −19.5 | L−15.5 | 142.0 | O178 | 126.1 | 120.6 | 72.1 |
| Mar 1 | Indiana | A | W 77–64 | −3.0 | W+10.0 | 144.0 | U141 | 128.1 | 106.5 | 60.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNorthern Iowa#5Michigan St
Efficiency
107.1
116.9
102.1
93.8
69.8
71.3
3.9
0.3
Shooting
48.6%
62.6%
50.0%
63.9%
31.0%
40.4%
84.2%
59.4%
27.5%
53.8%
Ball control & glass
12.0%
17.8%
12.0%
19.2%
26.2%
46.9%
28.6%
22.7%
8.0%
9.6%
7.5%
5.6%
Style
42.0%
39.5%
45.8%
46.0%
12.0%
29.9%
37.9%
67.7%
49.5%
42.9%
Roster
2.54
2.39
6'5.4"
6'6.6"
9.6%
60.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNorthern Iowa
Returning minutes: 9.6%Returning production: 5.7%
Lost
- Trey Campbell 33.5 mpg, 13.7 ppg · transferred to Utah
- Leon Bond III 32.8 mpg, 11.9 ppg · transferred to Iowa State
- Ben Schwieger 27.8 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Will Hornseth 25.5 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Utah State
- Max Weisbrod 24.7 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to N Illinois
- Tristan Smith 16.5 mpg, 7.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Tate McCubbin from Austin Peay · 29.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
- Greyson Uelmen from North Dakota · 27.8 mpg, 16.8 ppg last season
- Isaiah Johnson-Arigu from St Thomas · 20.7 mpg, 10.2 ppg last season
- Carson Vis from W Michigan · 14.8 mpg, 5.8 ppg last season
- Ian Smikle from Tulsa · 13.8 mpg, 3.1 ppg last season
- Jules Isebaert no D1 minutes last season
Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
#5Michigan St
Returning minutes: 60.4%Returning production: 58.6%
Lost
- Jaxon Kohler 27.7 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to BYU
- Carson Cooper 26.7 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Divine Ugochukwu 10.1 mpg, 3.2 ppg · transferred to LSU
- Trey Fort 9.7 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Denham Wojcik 4.8 mpg, 0.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nick Sanders 0.7 mpg, 0.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Anton Bonke from Charlotte · 25.6 mpg, 10.6 ppg last season
- Jasiah Jervis no D1 minutes last season
- Ethan Taylor no D1 minutes last season
- Kaleb Glenn no D1 minutes last season
- Matthew Watkins no D1 minutes last season
- Julius Avent no D1 minutes last season
Returns 60% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Fri, Nov 13
- West Florida vs Cleveland St · 3:00 PM ET
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- North Alabama at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
- Georgetown at Clemson · 6:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Rutgers · 6:00 PM ET
- Pitt at Butler · 6:30 PM ET
- Merrimack at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Georgia at North Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Tennessee St at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
- Long Island at Fordham · 7:00 PM ET
- Harvard at G Washington · 7:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Illinois · 7:00 PM ET
- Troy at NC State · 7:00 PM ET
- Mount St Marys at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Yale at Northeastern · 7:00 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Elon · 7:00 PM ET
- Iona at Hofstra · 7:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
- Prairie View at Vanderbilt · 7:00 PM ET
- FIU at FGCU · 7:00 PM ET
- Columbia at Bucknell · 7:00 PM ET
- Marist at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- App State at Charlotte · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio State at UConn · 7:30 PM ET
- SE Missouri at MTSU · 7:30 PM ET
- NC Central at Liberty · 7:30 PM ET
- South Dakota at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
- FDU at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- SIUE at Duke · 8:00 PM ET
- Virginia at Maryland · 8:00 PM ET
- C Arkansas at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
- Milwaukee at TCU · 8:00 PM ET
- GA Southern at UCF · 8:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Tarleton St · 8:00 PM ET
- Wright St at Samford · 8:00 PM ET
- Illinois St at N Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas Southern at Murray St · 8:00 PM ET
- Southern Miss at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood at Omaha · 8:45 PM ET
- Seton Hall at Alabama · 9:00 PM ET
- Xavier vs Mississippi St · 9:00 PM ET
- DePaul at Northwestern · 9:00 PM ET
- Arizona at Auburn · 9:00 PM ET
- Ball State at SMU · 9:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
- Stanford at UNLV · 9:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
- Miss Valley St at Oregon St · 9:30 PM ET
- UIC at Saint Mary's · 10:00 PM ET
- East Texas A&M at Portland · 10:00 PM ET
- UC San Diego at Utah State · 10:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at CA Baptist · 10:30 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.