CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceAddition Financial Arena, Orlando, FL
GA Southern
Efficiency #231
2025-26: 21-16 · 13-11 conf
@
UCF
Efficiency #70
2025-26: 21-12 · 10-10 conf
Fri, Nov 13 · TBD
75.2
win 16%
Projected
86.5
win 84%
No line posted yet.
Model: UCF −11.3 · total 161.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UCF 69.6, GA Southern 70.1 → 71.4 possessions
+6.7
UCF offense vs GA Southern defense
+7.0
GA Southern offense vs UCF defense
−0.2
Projected total
161.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UCF offense vs GA Southern defense
+7.0
GA Southern offense vs UCF defense
+0.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
UCF by 11.3
11.3
GA Southern side ◂▸ UCF side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UCF.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, GA Southern is the faster team (71.0, #50 of 365) and UCF the slower (70.6, #70). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
161.7
model
Projected team totals
75.2 / 86.5
GA Southern / UCF
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.1#40
GA Southern
69.6#78
UCF
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Track meet
UCF averages 70.6 possessions per 40, GA Southern 71.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageUCF
Where UCF scores: the offensive glass
UCF rebounds 35.0% of its own misses (#47); GA Southern lets opponents grab 35.2% of their own misses (#342). Expect about 36.0%, 5.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageGA Southern
Where GA Southern scores: ball control
GA Southern turns it over on 14.6% of possessions (#48); UCF forces turnovers on 15.7% of opponent possessions (#240). Expect about 14.9%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (UCF) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect GA Southern at about 47.0% of its shots from three, UCF about 35.7%.
GA Southern has the ball
OffenseUCF allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #176
52.1% #221
+0.7 pt/100
14.6% #48
15.7% #240
+2.4 pt/100
28.8% #238
28.8% #96
-1.2 pt/100
39.6% #62
34.9% #177
+0.3 pt/100
74.3% #111
—
+0.2 pt/100
GA Southern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.3 pts/100
UCF has the ball
OffenseGA Southern allowsvs D1 avg
52.6% #123
52.3% #230
+1.8 pt/100
16.0% #137
18.7% #61
-1.0 pt/100
35.0% #47
35.2% #342
+3.4 pt/100
30.5% #295
41.4% #316
+0.2 pt/100
72.9% #173
—
+0.0 pt/100
UCF net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersGA Southernoffense vsUCFdefense
Share of shots by zone
GA Southern shoots
37.8
4.8
8.2
49.3
UCF allows
34.9
7.2
18.5
39.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.2%#264 | 59.2%#198 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.7%#54 | 43.1%#254 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.4%#100 | 42.0%#306 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.4%#207 | 33.9%#176 | 33.7% |
UCFoffense vsGA Southerndefense
Share of shots by zone
UCF shoots
38.6
7.8
19.3
34.3
GA Southern allows
42.5
4.5
13.9
39.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.9%#121 | 59.2%#201 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.4%#137 | 39.3%#167 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.5%#202 | 35.9%#103 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.2%#49 | 34.3%#208 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersGA Southern
+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#163 of 365
Off reb %
28.8%
#238
Def reb %
64.8%
#342
Turnover %
14.6%
#48
Forced TO %
18.7%
#61
FT rate
39.6%
#62
FT allowed
41.4%
#316
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.5
Defensive rebounding−1.5
Ball security+1.5
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn+1.2
Foul shots allowed−1.6
UCF
+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#144 of 365
Off reb %
35.0%
#47
Def reb %
71.2%
#96
Turnover %
16.0%
#137
Forced TO %
15.7%
#240
FT rate
30.5%
#295
FT allowed
34.9%
#177
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.5
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn−1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.1
UCF has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.9 (#144 of 365) to GA Southern’s +0.5 (#163).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
GA Southern2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted GA Southern's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Spudd Webb | G | Sr | 6'4" | 37-37 | 32.4 | 15.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 56.6% | 31.9% | 3.6 | 81.8% | 24.6% | |
| 13 | Alden Applewhite | F | Sr | 6'7" | 36-35 | 31.3 | 14.1 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 56.5% | 37.4% | 4.1 | 79.3% | 22.5% | |
| 12 | Tyren Moore | G | Sr | 5'11" | 37-37 | 29.4 | 16.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 56.1% | 38.7% | 8.4 | 83.0% | 29.6% | |
| 5 | Nakavieon White | F | Sr | 6'7" | 37-6 | 20.1 | 9.7 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 44.1% | 32.5% | 3.2 | 67.1% | 32.0% | |
| 3 | Khayri Dunn | G | So | 6'1" | 36-0 | 17.5 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 50.2% | 34.3% | 3.9 | 81.8% | 27.0% | |
| 11 | Shainen Carter | F | Sr | 6'9" | 34-22 | 17.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 53.5% | 16.7% | 0.2 | 64.3% | 13.9% | |
| 24 | Andres Burney | F | Sr | 6'9" | 35-15 | 15.7 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 66.1% | — | 0.0 | 54.5% | 15.4% | |
| 9 | Jefferson Koulibaly | G | Sr | 6'3" | 25-16 | 21.1 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 38.8% | 24.1% | 2.2 | 57.9% | 15.3% | |
| 1 | Dwayne Williams Jr | G | Fr | 6'6" | 34-3 | 13.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 46.0% | 30.2% | 2.8 | 93.8% | 21.0% | |
| 7 | Tsvet Sotirov | F | So | 6'9" | 35-3 | 11.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 43.0% | 25.3% | 2.3 | 60.0% | 16.5% | |
| 0 | Jayden Williams | G | Fr | 6'6" | 17-11 | 9.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 26.0% | 12.5% | 0.5 | 47.1% | 12.6% | |
| 10 | Sean Van Dorn Jr | G | Fr | 6'6" | 5-0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 40.0% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 30.1% | |
| 4 | Cade Lomas | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 23.3% | |
| 6 | Amare Neal | G | Fr | 5'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Cullen Schreiner | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Dallas Gardner | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 34 | Pavle Ridesic | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
UCF2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | Jordan Burks | F | Jr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 28.2 | 13.3 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 54.5% | 37.3% | 4.9 | 78.2% | 24.9% | |
| 4 | Jamichael Stillwell | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-30 | 28.4 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 52.6% | 30.8% | 1.3 | 70.2% | 23.8% | |
| 7 | John Bol | C | So | 7'2" | 33-33 | 18.7 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 71.7% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 61.5% | 16.2% | |
| 35 | Devan Cambridge | F | Sr | 6'6" | 33-3 | 17.4 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 51.5% | 27.9% | 1.8 | 70.5% | 17.6% | |
| 22 | Chris Johnson | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-2 | 15.8 | 6.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 52.8% | 36.5% | 2.7 | 70.0% | 22.7% | |
| 11 | Carmelo Pacheco | G | Jr | 6'5" | 31-0 | 15.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 58.1% | 39.4% | 3.5 | 100.0% | 14.7% | |
| 0 | Jeremy Foumena | C | Jr | 6'11" | 26-0 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 54.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 50.0% | 21.4% | |
| 3 | George Beale Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 25-0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 43.8% | 33.3% | 2.4 | 83.3% | 29.0% | |
| 5 | Kris Parker | G | So | 6'9" | 21-0 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 58.3% | 28.6% | 0.3 | 58.8% | 20.5% | |
| 9 | Elijah Hulsewe | C | Jr | 7'0" | 17-0 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 11.8% | |
| 24 | Zach Johnson | G | Fr | 6'6" | 6-0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 5.3% | |
| 33 | Poohpha Warakulnukroh | G | Sr | 5'11" | 4-0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | — | 46.8% | |
| 30 | Tanner Jones | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
GA Southern2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted GA Southern's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Spudd Webb | G | Sr | 6'4" | 37-37 | 32.4 | 15.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 56.6% | 31.9% | 3.6 | 81.8% | 24.6% | |
| 13 | Alden Applewhite | F | Sr | 6'7" | 36-35 | 31.3 | 14.1 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 56.5% | 37.4% | 4.1 | 79.3% | 22.5% | |
| 12 | Tyren Moore | G | Sr | 5'11" | 37-37 | 29.4 | 16.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 56.1% | 38.7% | 8.4 | 83.0% | 29.6% | |
| 5 | Nakavieon White | F | Sr | 6'7" | 37-6 | 20.1 | 9.7 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 44.1% | 32.5% | 3.2 | 67.1% | 32.0% | |
| 3 | Khayri Dunn | G | So | 6'1" | 36-0 | 17.5 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 50.2% | 34.3% | 3.9 | 81.8% | 27.0% | |
| 11 | Shainen Carter | F | Sr | 6'9" | 34-22 | 17.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 53.5% | 16.7% | 0.2 | 64.3% | 13.9% | |
| 24 | Andres Burney | F | Sr | 6'9" | 35-15 | 15.7 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 66.1% | — | 0.0 | 54.5% | 15.4% | |
| 9 | Jefferson Koulibaly | G | Sr | 6'3" | 25-16 | 21.1 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 38.8% | 24.1% | 2.2 | 57.9% | 15.3% | |
| 1 | Dwayne Williams Jr | G | Fr | 6'6" | 34-3 | 13.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 46.0% | 30.2% | 2.8 | 93.8% | 21.0% | |
| 7 | Tsvet Sotirov | F | So | 6'9" | 35-3 | 11.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 43.0% | 25.3% | 2.3 | 60.0% | 16.5% | |
| 0 | Jayden Williams | G | Fr | 6'6" | 17-11 | 9.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 26.0% | 12.5% | 0.5 | 47.1% | 12.6% | |
| 10 | Sean Van Dorn Jr | G | Fr | 6'6" | 5-0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 40.0% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 30.1% | |
| 4 | Cade Lomas | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 23.3% | |
| 6 | Amare Neal | G | Fr | 5'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Cullen Schreiner | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Dallas Gardner | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 34 | Pavle Ridesic | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26GA Southern
Against the spread
Season
17-16-1
Home
5-6-1
Road
7-7
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +5.1
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
18-16
Home
6-6
Road
9-5
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +3.1
Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9 | Troy | N | L 61–77 | +5.0 | L−11.0 | 152.5 | U138 | 96.7 | 122.0 | 63.1 |
| Mar 8 | Marshall | N | W 82–78 | +3.5 | W+7.5 | 166.5 | U160 | 113.3 | 107.7 | 72.4 |
| Mar 7 | Coastal | N | W 96–72 | +1.0 | W+25.0 | 150.5 | O168 | 140.9 | 105.7 | 68.1 |
| Mar 6 | South Alabama | N | W 94–85 | +4.5 | W+13.5 | 148.5 | O179 | 139.9 | 126.5 | 67.2 |
| Mar 5 | Arkansas St | N | W 80–77 | +7.5 | W+10.5 | 166.0 | U157 | 116.4 | 112.0 | 68.7 |
| Mar 4 | Old Dominion | N | W 88–84 | −2.0 | W+2.0 | 157.5 | O172 | 127.4 | 121.6 | 69.1 |
| Feb 27 | Marshall | A | W 99–82 | +7.5 | W+24.5 | 168.5 | O181 | 138.1 | 114.4 | 71.7 |
| Feb 25 | James Madison | A | L 66–82 | +5.5 | L−10.5 | 153.5 | U148 | 93.7 | 116.4 | 70.4 |
| Feb 21 | App State | A | L 74–89 | +7.5 | L−7.5 | 146.5 | O163 | 104.1 | 125.2 | 71.1 |
| Feb 19 | Georgia St | A | L 64–66 | −1.0 | L−3.0 | 155.0 | U130 | 93.3 | 96.2 | 68.6 |
UCF
Against the spread
Season
16-16-1
Home
8-10-1
Road
5-5
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +0.2
Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-19
Home
11-8
Road
3-7
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +2.5
Under 4 straightOver in 1 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 | #7UCLA | N | L 71–75 | +6.0 | W+2.0 | 152.0 | U146 | 100.6 | 106.3 | 70.6 |
| Mar 12 | #2Arizona | N | L 59–81 | +15.5 | L−6.5 | 158.5 | U140 | 86.2 | 118.4 | 68.4 |
| Mar 11 | Cincinnati | N | W 66–65 OT | +3.5 | W+4.5 | 149.0 | U131 | 86.3 | 85.0 | 76.5 |
| Mar 6 | West Virginia | A | L 62–77 | +4.5 | L−10.5 | 141.5 | U139 | 92.9 | 115.4 | 66.7 |
| Mar 3 | Oklahoma St | H | L 104–111 OT | −8.5 | L−15.5 | 168.5 | O215 | 119.3 | 127.3 | 87.2 |
| Feb 28 | Baylor | H | L 86–87 | −1.5 | L−2.5 | 159.0 | O173 | 129.8 | 131.3 | 66.2 |
| Feb 24 | #19BYU | A | W 97–84 | +13.5 | W+26.5 | 161.5 | O181 | 125.0 | 108.3 | 77.6 |
| Feb 21 | Utah | A | W 73–71 | +1.0 | W+3.0 | 153.0 | U144 | 117.2 | 114.0 | 62.3 |
| Feb 17 | TCU | H | W 82–71 | +1.0 | W+12.0 | 155.0 | U153 | 115.2 | 99.8 | 71.2 |
| Feb 14 | West Virginia | H | L 67–74 | −3.5 | L−10.5 | 140.5 | O141 | 98.8 | 109.1 | 67.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeGA SouthernUCF
Efficiency
109.5
114.3
112.5
107.2
70.1
69.6
—
—
Shooting
51.4%
52.6%
52.7%
51.7%
33.4%
36.2%
74.3%
72.9%
39.6%
30.5%
Ball control & glass
14.6%
16.0%
18.7%
15.7%
28.8%
35.0%
35.2%
28.8%
9.0%
8.6%
9.2%
9.4%
Style
48.9%
34.8%
38.2%
46.8%
12.4%
14.7%
41.1%
53.7%
36.5%
32.0%
Roster
3.48
3.19
6'4.9"
6'8.2"
—
70.2%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputGA Southern
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted GA Southern's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
UCF
Returning minutes: 70.2%Returning production: 69.2%
Lost
- Themus Fulks 32.8 mpg, 14.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Riley Kugel 27.2 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Tanner Jones no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 70% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.