CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMoody Coliseum (Dallas), Dallas, TX
Ball State
Efficiency #295
2025-26: 12-19 · 7-11 conf
@
SMU
Efficiency #44
2025-26: 20-14 · 9-11 conf
Fri, Nov 13 · TBD
64.8
win 9%
Projected
80.2
win 91%
No line posted yet.
Model: SMU −15.3 · total 145.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: SMU 69.1, Ball State 65.9 → 66.7 possessions
−3.4
SMU offense vs Ball State defense
+5.9
Ball State offense vs SMU defense
−5.6
Projected total
145.0
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
SMU offense vs Ball State defense
+5.9
Ball State offense vs SMU defense
+5.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
SMU by 15.3
15.3
Ball State side ◂▸ SMU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 145.1 against a projected 145.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help SMU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, SMU is the faster team (70.6, #73 of 365) and Ball State the slower (65.3, #321). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.0
model
Projected team totals
64.8 / 80.2
Ball State / SMU
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.9#344
Ball State
69.1#108
SMU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSMU
Where SMU scores: shooting
SMU shoots an effective 55.6% (#26); Ball State allows 52.7% (#253). Expect about 54.5%, 3.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageBall State
Where Ball State struggles: shooting
Ball State shoots an effective 47.0% (#336); SMU allows 51.6% (#189). Expect about 49.0%, 2.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
SMU averages 70.6 possessions per 40, Ball State 65.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
GlassSMU
SMU owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.2% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for SMU's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (SMU) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Ball State at about 44.7% of its shots from three, SMU about 37.7%.
Ball State has the ball
OffenseSMU allowsvs D1 avg
47.0% #336
51.6% #189
-3.3 pt/100
16.2% #152
16.8% #164
+0.3 pt/100
27.1% #290
31.6% #237
-1.0 pt/100
31.6% #263
32.1% #107
-0.4 pt/100
71.0% #240
—
-0.1 pt/100
Ball State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.5 pts/100
SMU has the ball
OffenseBall State allowsvs D1 avg
55.6% #26
52.7% #253
+4.6 pt/100
15.7% #116
18.7% #63
-0.7 pt/100
35.4% #37
31.0% #204
+2.3 pt/100
30.4% #301
32.1% #106
-0.5 pt/100
74.3% #117
—
+0.2 pt/100
SMU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Ball Stateoffense vsSMUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Ball State shoots
SMU allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim52.7%#34460.8%#26358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.2%#21837.0%#11139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)30.6%#35038.3%#16938.0%
Three31.4%#31234.1%#18833.7%
SMUoffense vsBall Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
SMU shoots
Ball State allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.0%#3861.4%#28058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)48.5%#1742.3%#23539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.1%#2537.9%#15838.0%
Three37.1%#2734.8%#23933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Ball State
+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#162 of 365
Off reb %
27.1%
#290
Def reb %
69.0%
#204
Turnover %
16.2%
#152
Forced TO %
18.7%
#63
FT rate
31.6%
#263
FT allowed
32.1%
#106
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+0.8
SMU
+1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#112 of 365
Off reb %
35.4%
#37
Def reb %
68.4%
#237
Turnover %
15.7%
#116
Forced TO %
16.8%
#164
FT rate
30.4%
#301
FT allowed
32.1%
#107
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed+0.8

SMU has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.7 (#112 of 365) to Ball State’s +0.5 (#162).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Ball State2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
24Mason JonesFSr6'7"31-3030.94.24.41.70.848.0%36.9%2.140.9%10.1%
0Sean Blakeat VermontGJr6'2"34-2728.69.94.23.92.450.4%35.2%1.669.3%25.0%
55Zaon Collinsat Fresno StGSr6'1"26-2430.711.63.44.62.849.8%30.9%2.171.3%25.6%
2Javion Guy-Kingat C ArkansasGSr6'6"32-2022.49.84.21.81.352.0%34.1%4.269.7%26.1%
5K'Jei Parkerat UMassGSr6'2"33-620.810.71.92.01.456.7%40.8%4.890.0%27.3%
11Babatunde Durodolaat TempleFJr6'8"32-919.24.83.51.60.949.5%0.0%0.175.8%16.8%
1Trey Lewisat W MichiganGSr6'6"31-1117.67.72.60.50.855.2%38.5%4.474.3%24.5%
7Jaden Smithat Saint Joseph'sCJr6'11"36-19.12.81.80.30.747.1%18.2%0.369.4%21.1%
20Joey HartGSr6'5"4-319.39.01.81.00.363.6%40.0%2.5100.0%20.5%
4Jazz Henderson Jr.at Texas TechGJr5'11"12-04.30.90.50.30.341.7%50.0%0.350.0%19.3%
3Aaron Fineat PurdueGJr6'2"9-02.41.20.00.30.250.0%—0.050.0%34.4%
25Kai McgrewFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
6Kamden McGilvearyGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
33Kijani WrightFSr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Zaon Collins (from Fresno St), Babatunde Durodola (from Temple), Aaron Fine (from Purdue), Javion Guy-King (from C Arkansas), Jazz Henderson Jr. (from Texas Tech), Trey Lewis (from W Michigan), K'Jei Parker (from UMass), Jaden Smith (from Saint Joseph's), Sean Blake (from Vermont)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Ball StateSMU
Efficiency
101.8
117.0
108.8
106.7
65.9
69.1
—
—
Shooting
47.0%
55.6%
47.0%
55.6%
31.4%
37.1%
71.0%
74.3%
31.6%
30.4%
Ball control & glass
16.2%
15.7%
18.7%
16.8%
27.1%
35.4%
31.0%
31.6%
8.1%
9.3%
10.9%
7.5%
Style
39.4%
35.9%
45.4%
43.7%
10.8%
13.4%
53.6%
54.9%
34.8%
22.4%
Roster
3.66
2.18
6'4.7"
6'9"
16.6%
53.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Ball State
Returning minutes: 16.6%Returning production: 13.1%
Lost
  • Armoni Zeigler 32.4 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to Boston College
  • Davion Hill 26.9 mpg, 14.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Elmore James IV 23.9 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Devon Barnes 20.9 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Preston Copeland 18.1 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Juwan Maxey 13.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Sean Blake from Vermont · 28.6 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
  • Zaon Collins from Fresno St · 24.9 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
  • Javion Guy-King from C Arkansas · 21.1 mpg, 9.2 ppg last season
  • K'Jei Parker from UMass · 20.8 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
  • Babatunde Durodola from Temple · 19.2 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season
  • Trey Lewis from W Michigan · 17.6 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season

Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

SMU
Returning minutes: 53.0%Returning production: 45.5%
Lost
  • Boopie Miller 34.1 mpg, 18.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaron Pierre Jr. 33.2 mpg, 17.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • B.J. Edwards 27.4 mpg, 10.5 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma
Added
  • Billy White III no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 53% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.