CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 145.1 against a projected 145.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help SMU.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 66.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, SMU is the faster team (70.6, #73 of 365) and Ball State the slower (65.3, #321). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 52.7%#344 | 60.8%#263 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.2%#218 | 37.0%#111 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 30.6%#350 | 38.3%#169 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.4%#312 | 34.1%#188 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.0%#38 | 61.4%#280 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 48.5%#17 | 42.3%#235 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.1%#25 | 37.9%#158 | 38.0% |
| Three | 37.1%#27 | 34.8%#239 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSMU has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.7 (#112 of 365) to Ball State’s +0.5 (#162).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Mason Jones | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-30 | 30.9 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 48.0% | 36.9% | 2.1 | 40.9% | 10.1% | |
| 0 | Sean Blakeat Vermont | G | Jr | 6'2" | 34-27 | 28.6 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 50.4% | 35.2% | 1.6 | 69.3% | 25.0% | |
| 55 | Zaon Collinsat Fresno St | G | Sr | 6'1" | 26-24 | 30.7 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 49.8% | 30.9% | 2.1 | 71.3% | 25.6% | |
| 2 | Javion Guy-Kingat C Arkansas | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-20 | 22.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 52.0% | 34.1% | 4.2 | 69.7% | 26.1% | |
| 5 | K'Jei Parkerat UMass | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-6 | 20.8 | 10.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 56.7% | 40.8% | 4.8 | 90.0% | 27.3% | |
| 11 | Babatunde Durodolaat Temple | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-9 | 19.2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 49.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 75.8% | 16.8% | |
| 1 | Trey Lewisat W Michigan | G | Sr | 6'6" | 31-11 | 17.6 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 55.2% | 38.5% | 4.4 | 74.3% | 24.5% | |
| 7 | Jaden Smithat Saint Joseph's | C | Jr | 6'11" | 36-1 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 47.1% | 18.2% | 0.3 | 69.4% | 21.1% | |
| 20 | Joey Hart | G | Sr | 6'5" | 4-3 | 19.3 | 9.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 63.6% | 40.0% | 2.5 | 100.0% | 20.5% | |
| 4 | Jazz Henderson Jr.at Texas Tech | G | Jr | 5'11" | 12-0 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 41.7% | 50.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 19.3% | |
| 3 | Aaron Fineat Purdue | G | Jr | 6'2" | 9-0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 34.4% | |
| 25 | Kai Mcgrew | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Kamden McGilveary | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Kijani Wright | F | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Samet Yigitoglu | C | So | 7'2" | 34-34 | 28.9 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 62.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 49.5% | 20.7% | |
| 3 | Corey Washington | F | Sr | 6'6" | 34-34 | 27.8 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 56.8% | 38.8% | 3.4 | 76.9% | 21.1% | |
| 10 | Jaden Toombs | C | Fr | 6'10" | 27-5 | 20.0 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 58.6% | 23.1% | 1.0 | 65.8% | 22.8% | |
| 7 | Jermaine O'Neal Jr. | F | Fr | 6'5" | 34-2 | 15.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 51.1% | 37.1% | 1.8 | 91.7% | 17.8% | |
| 9 | B.J. Davis-Ray | G | Fr | 6'6" | 32-0 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 41.1% | 21.7% | 0.7 | 75.0% | 13.9% | |
| 4 | Sam Walters | F | Jr | 6'9" | 24-2 | 9.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 52.5% | 34.9% | 1.8 | 0.0% | 17.9% | |
| 13 | Mitchell Holmes | F | Fr | 6'10" | 25-0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 70.4% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 13.1% | |
| 1 | Chance Puryear | F | Fr | 6'7" | 11-0 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 30.0% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 33.3% | 16.3% | |
| 22 | Nigel Walls | F | Fr | 6'10" | 9-0 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 6.9% | |
| 31 | Trey Utter | G | Sr | 6'0" | 2-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 33 | Niccolo Kalischer-Stork | G | Fr | 6'2" | 2-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 49.3% | |
| 8 | Billy White III | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Mason Jones | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-30 | 30.9 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 48.0% | 36.9% | 2.1 | 40.9% | 10.1% | |
| 0 | Sean Blakeat Vermont | G | Jr | 6'2" | 34-27 | 28.6 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 50.4% | 35.2% | 1.6 | 69.3% | 25.0% | |
| 55 | Zaon Collinsat Fresno St | G | Sr | 6'1" | 26-24 | 30.7 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 49.8% | 30.9% | 2.1 | 71.3% | 25.6% | |
| 2 | Javion Guy-Kingat C Arkansas | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-20 | 22.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 52.0% | 34.1% | 4.2 | 69.7% | 26.1% | |
| 5 | K'Jei Parkerat UMass | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-6 | 20.8 | 10.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 56.7% | 40.8% | 4.8 | 90.0% | 27.3% | |
| 11 | Babatunde Durodolaat Temple | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-9 | 19.2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 49.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 75.8% | 16.8% | |
| 1 | Trey Lewisat W Michigan | G | Sr | 6'6" | 31-11 | 17.6 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 55.2% | 38.5% | 4.4 | 74.3% | 24.5% | |
| 7 | Jaden Smithat Saint Joseph's | C | Jr | 6'11" | 36-1 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 47.1% | 18.2% | 0.3 | 69.4% | 21.1% | |
| 20 | Joey Hart | G | Sr | 6'5" | 4-3 | 19.3 | 9.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 63.6% | 40.0% | 2.5 | 100.0% | 20.5% | |
| 4 | Jazz Henderson Jr.at Texas Tech | G | Jr | 5'11" | 12-0 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 41.7% | 50.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 19.3% | |
| 3 | Aaron Fineat Purdue | G | Jr | 6'2" | 9-0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 34.4% | |
| 25 | Kai Mcgrew | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Kamden McGilveary | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Kijani Wright | F | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | C Michigan | H | W 85–69 | −2.0 | W+14.0 | 135.0 | O154 | 125.8 | 102.1 | 67.6 |
| Mar 3 | W Michigan | A | W 74–71 OT | +2.0 | W+5.0 | 138.5 | O145 | 103.2 | 99.0 | 71.7 |
| Feb 28 | N Illinois | A | W 79–43 | +1.5 | W+37.5 | 133.5 | U122 | 125.7 | 68.4 | 62.8 |
| Feb 24 | UMass | H | W 74–73 OT | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 143.5 | O147 | 100.6 | 99.3 | 73.5 |
| Feb 20 | Akron | H | L 65–78 | +14.0 | W+1.0 | 147.5 | U143 | 96.7 | 116.1 | 67.2 |
| Feb 17 | Ohio | A | L 57–69 | +9.5 | L−2.5 | 144.5 | U126 | 95.3 | 115.4 | 59.8 |
| Feb 14 | Kent State | H | L 68–75 | +8.0 | W+1.0 | 143.0 | P143 | 93.7 | 103.3 | 72.6 |
| Feb 11 | Buffalo | H | L 53–63 | −1.0 | L−11.0 | 141.0 | U116 | 89.6 | 106.5 | 59.2 |
| Feb 7 | UL Monroe | A | W 73–68 | −4.5 | W+0.5 | 143.5 | U141 | 105.3 | 98.1 | 69.3 |
| Feb 3 | Bowling Green | A | L 52–77 | +11.0 | L−14.0 | 138.0 | U129 | 83.1 | 123.0 | 62.6 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | #11Miami OH | N | L 79–89 | −7.0 | L−17.0 | 160.5 | O168 | 119.2 | 134.3 | 66.3 |
| Mar 11 | #24Louisville | N | L 58–62 | +6.5 | W+2.5 | 163.5 | U120 | 94.4 | 100.9 | 61.5 |
| Mar 10 | Syracuse | N | W 86–69 | −4.0 | W+13.0 | 155.0 | P155 | 130.2 | 104.4 | 66.1 |
| Mar 7 | Florida St | A | L 78–91 | +1.0 | L−12.0 | 158.5 | O169 | 105.8 | 123.4 | 73.7 |
| Mar 4 | #22Miami | H | L 69–77 | −1.5 | L−9.5 | 156.5 | U146 | 99.4 | 111.0 | 69.4 |
| Feb 28 | Stanford | A | L 75–95 | +1.0 | L−19.0 | 154.5 | O170 | 116.6 | 147.6 | 64.3 |
| Feb 25 | California | A | L 69–73 | −4.0 | L−8.0 | 163.0 | U142 | 98.9 | 104.7 | 69.7 |
| Feb 21 | Boston College | H | W 94–70 | −15.5 | W+8.5 | 150.0 | O164 | 143.1 | 106.6 | 65.7 |
| Feb 17 | #21Louisville | H | W 95–85 | +4.0 | W+14.0 | 168.0 | O180 | 124.3 | 111.2 | 76.4 |
| Feb 14 | Syracuse | A | L 78–79 | −2.0 | L−3.0 | 158.0 | U157 | 119.4 | 121.0 | 65.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input- Armoni Zeigler 32.4 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to Boston College
- Davion Hill 26.9 mpg, 14.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elmore James IV 23.9 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Devon Barnes 20.9 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Preston Copeland 18.1 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Juwan Maxey 13.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Sean Blake from Vermont · 28.6 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
- Zaon Collins from Fresno St · 24.9 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
- Javion Guy-King from C Arkansas · 21.1 mpg, 9.2 ppg last season
- K'Jei Parker from UMass · 20.8 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
- Babatunde Durodola from Temple · 19.2 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season
- Trey Lewis from W Michigan · 17.6 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
- Boopie Miller 34.1 mpg, 18.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaron Pierre Jr. 33.2 mpg, 17.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- B.J. Edwards 27.4 mpg, 10.5 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma
- Billy White III no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 53% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and lastThe CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.