CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceRose Hill Gym, Bronx, NY
Long Island
Efficiency #195
2025-26: 24-11 · 18-3 conf
@
Fordham
Efficiency #170
2025-26: 17-15 · 8-11 conf
Fri, Nov 13 · TBD
66.9
win 34%
Projected
71.6
win 66%
No line posted yet.
Model: FOR −4.7 · total 138.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Fordham 66.2, Long Island 68.6 → 66.6 possessions
−3.8
Fordham offense vs Long Island defense
−2.5
Long Island offense vs Fordham defense
−3.4
Projected total
138.5
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Fordham offense vs Long Island defense
−2.5
Long Island offense vs Fordham defense
+3.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Fordham by 4.7
4.7
Long Island side ◂▸ Fordham side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Fordham.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Long Island is the faster team (68.2, #190 of 365) and Fordham the slower (64.5, #341). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
138.5
model
Projected team totals
66.9 / 71.6
Long Island / Fordham
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.6#152
Long Island
66.2#334
Fordham

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageFordham
Where Fordham struggles: shooting
Fordham shoots an effective 48.6% (#300); Long Island allows 50.0% (#102). Expect about 49.1%, 2.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Fordham averages 64.5 possessions per 40, Long Island 68.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
DefenseLong Island
Long Island's shot-blocking
Long Island ranks #16 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.1% of Fordham's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
GlassFordham
Fordham owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.2% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Fordham's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Fordham) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Long Island at about 33.2% of its shots from three, Fordham about 34.3%.
TurnoversFordham
Fordham turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.3% is worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions against Fordham's offense.
Long Island has the ball
OffenseFordham allowsvs D1 avg
52.8% #112
49.9% #95
+0.3 pt/100
18.9% #318
17.2% #136
-1.8 pt/100
33.9% #70
26.8% #29
+0.4 pt/100
34.0% #207
30.3% #66
-0.4 pt/100
66.7% #346
—
-0.5 pt/100
Long Island net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.0 pts/100
Fordham has the ball
OffenseLong Island allowsvs D1 avg
48.6% #300
50.0% #102
-3.1 pt/100
17.2% #218
18.8% #58
-1.9 pt/100
34.1% #64
33.0% #299
+2.3 pt/100
26.4% #354
34.7% #171
-0.5 pt/100
70.2% #265
—
-0.2 pt/100
Fordham net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Long Islandoffense vsFordhamdefense
Share of shots by zone
Long Island shoots
Fordham allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.7%#13357.7%#13758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.8%#22438.1%#13739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.7%#16239.0%#20338.0%
Three35.8%#6733.4%#14933.7%
Fordhamoffense vsLong Islanddefense
Share of shots by zone
Fordham shoots
Long Island allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#22555.3%#7058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.0%#22149.1%#35039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.3%#3340.4%#25638.0%
Three28.9%#35632.2%#7233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Long Island
+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#172 of 365
Off reb %
33.9%
#70
Def reb %
67.0%
#299
Turnover %
18.9%
#318
Forced TO %
18.8%
#58
FT rate
34.0%
#207
FT allowed
34.7%
#171
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.1
Defensive rebounding−0.8
Ball security−1.5
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.1
Fordham
+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#117 of 365
Off reb %
34.1%
#64
Def reb %
73.2%
#29
Turnover %
17.2%
#218
Forced TO %
17.2%
#136
FT rate
26.4%
#354
FT allowed
30.3%
#66
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn−2.2
Foul shots allowed+1.3

Fordham has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#117 of 365) to Long Island’s +0.2 (#172).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Long Island2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Long Island's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Greg GordonGSr6'5"35-3534.114.05.52.91.957.2%20.7%0.840.7%25.1%
33Jamal FullerGSr6'5"34-3333.616.25.52.62.159.6%43.0%3.877.1%26.4%
0Malachi DavisGSr6'4"35-3430.914.03.53.42.846.1%31.4%4.062.1%32.9%
1Jomo GoingsGJr6'5"35-3430.89.84.52.22.246.5%36.3%2.984.2%21.9%
22Shadrak LasuFSo6'8"33-3322.95.25.40.40.856.9%42.9%0.663.8%13.6%
6Mason Porter-BrownFJr6'6"35-620.07.83.20.61.057.1%40.4%2.771.3%22.2%
3Faheim MeranGJr6'6"18-014.63.11.11.10.951.0%36.7%1.758.3%15.4%
15Caleb JohnsonFSr6'7"23-011.02.52.10.50.352.3%0.0%0.575.0%13.9%
4Tre'shawn SheppardGSo6'6"26-09.72.12.70.30.454.5%33.3%0.253.8%14.0%
10A.J. Neal Jr.GSr6'2"15-07.71.90.40.70.652.2%50.0%0.566.7%17.2%
7Isaiah MirandaFJr7'1"13-08.13.71.50.20.642.6%15.4%1.066.7%31.3%
5Max Ndlovu-FraserGFr6'5"7-07.90.70.60.60.635.7%33.3%0.4—11.7%
34Xinyi LiFJr6'9"8-03.60.60.80.00.535.7%33.3%0.4—23.4%
14Eddie MunyakGSo6'1"2-01.51.50.50.00.0150.0%100.0%0.5—17.8%
24Gavin PendergastGSo6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Long IslandFordham
Efficiency
106.8
105.4
107.8
105.1
68.6
66.2
—
—
Shooting
52.8%
48.6%
52.4%
51.9%
35.8%
28.9%
66.7%
70.2%
34.0%
26.4%
Ball control & glass
18.9%
17.2%
18.8%
17.2%
33.9%
34.1%
33.0%
26.8%
10.4%
8.8%
8.6%
8.5%
Style
29.3%
38.3%
51.9%
48.9%
19.4%
11.1%
50.2%
52.4%
24.1%
29.5%
Roster
3.38
3.07
6'5.5"
6'5.8"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Long Island
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Long Island's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Fordham
Returning minutes: 99.6%Returning production: 99.7%
ESPN hasn't posted Fordham's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Thu, Nov 202025-26Long Island 53 – 69 Fordham

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.