CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conference

Ohio State

Efficiency #31

2025-26: 21-13 · 13-9 conf

UConn

Efficiency #10

2025-26: 34-6 · 19-4 conf

Fri, Nov 13 · TBD

68.4

win 26%

Projected

76.0

win 74%

No line posted yet.

Model: CONN −7.6 · total 144.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UConn 66.4, Ohio State 67.5 → 65.6 possessions

−6.0

UConn offense vs Ohio State defense

+3.0

Ohio State offense vs UConn defense

−0.8

Projected total

144.4

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UConn offense vs Ohio State defense

+3.0

Ohio State offense vs UConn defense

+0.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

UConn by 7.6

7.6

Ohio State side ◂▸ UConn side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UConn.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Ohio State is the faster team (66.4, #278 of 365) and UConn the slower (65.7, #308). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

144.4

model

Projected team totals

68.4 / 76.0

Ohio State / UConn

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.5#253

Ohio State

66.4#324

UConn

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

UConn averages 65.7 possessions per 40, Ohio State 66.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

DefenseUConn

UConn's shot-blocking

UConn ranks #12 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.8% of Ohio State's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageUConn

Where UConn scores: the offensive glass

UConn rebounds 35.7% of its own misses (#30); Ohio State lets opponents grab 30.0% of their own misses (#160). Expect about 33.9%, 3.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (UConn's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Ohio State at about 37.7% of its shots from three, UConn about 41.1%.

ClashOhio State

Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting

Ohio State (#20 in 2-point shooting) against UConn (#12 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 52.4%. Historically Ohio State's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).

ClashOhio State

Strength vs strength: eFG%

Ohio State (#19 in eFG%) against UConn (#7 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 51.3%. Historically Ohio State's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.58 vs 0.51).

Ohio State has the ball

OffenseUConn allowsvs D1 avg

56.2% #19

45.7% #7

+0.0 pt/100

15.3% #91

17.8% #107

+0.2 pt/100

30.4% #185

28.8% #99

-0.5 pt/100

37.2% #122

40.7% #308

+0.6 pt/100

77.7% #21

—

+0.5 pt/100

Ohio State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.8 pts/100

UConn has the ball

OffenseOhio State allowsvs D1 avg

54.3% #59

50.2% #114

+1.7 pt/100

16.4% #163

15.6% #242

+1.1 pt/100

35.7% #30

30.0% #160

+2.1 pt/100

29.9% #313

34.7% #170

-0.3 pt/100

72.4% #192

—

+0.0 pt/100

UConn net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Ohio Stateoffense vsUConndefense

Share of shots by zone

Ohio State shoots

31.3

9.5

18.8

40.4

UConn allows

40.0

7.0

17.3

35.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.1%#14	50.8%#6	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	50.3%#12	45.3%#306	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	47.6%#4	34.8%#70	38.0%
Three	35.7%#72	30.2%#8	33.7%

UConnoffense vsOhio Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

UConn shoots

37.7

7.8

14.2

40.3

Ohio State allows

31.5

8.2

20.1

40.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.1%#36	59.8%#220	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.4%#188	38.4%#143	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.9%#17	42.7%#328	38.0%
Three	34.4%#150	31.9%#57	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Ohio State

+1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#132 of 365

Off reb %

30.4%

#185

Def reb %

70.0%

#160

Turnover %

15.3%

#91

Forced TO %

15.6%

#242

FT rate

37.2%

#122

FT allowed

34.7%

#170

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−0.7

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed+0.1

UConn

+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#160 of 365

Off reb %

35.7%

#30

Def reb %

71.2%

#99

Turnover %

16.4%

#163

Forced TO %

17.8%

#107

FT rate

29.9%

#313

FT allowed

40.7%

#308

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.7

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security+0.2

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed−1.4

Ohio State has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.2 (#132 of 365) to UConn’s +0.6 (#160).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Ohio State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Devin Royal	F	Jr	6'6"	32-32	32.5	13.7	5.7	1.6	1.7	52.5%	31.6%	3.1	80.2%	25.1%
0	John Mobley Jr.	G	So	6'1"	31-31	31.6	15.7	2.4	2.8	1.8	56.7%	41.1%	7.6	86.8%	28.2%
1	Amare Bynum	F	Fr	6'8"	34-24	28.5	9.7	4.9	1.1	1.1	56.1%	30.8%	2.7	72.6%	20.2%
4	Gabe Cupps	G	So	6'2"	33-0	12.2	1.7	1.1	1.1	0.6	45.6%	25.9%	0.8	73.7%	11.2%
3	Taison Chatman	G	So	6'4"	28-3	12.9	4.3	1.2	0.8	0.8	59.8%	47.1%	1.8	85.0%	19.8%
7	Ivan Njegovan	C	So	7'1"	30-2	11.4	2.6	3.0	0.7	0.6	58.8%	66.7%	0.1	65.5%	14.7%
14	Brandon Noel	F	Sr	6'8"	16-10	18.9	6.6	3.7	0.9	1.0	65.1%	20.0%	0.9	73.3%	18.3%
6	Puff Johnson	G	Sr	6'8"	9-1	11.4	2.3	1.1	0.1	0.4	41.7%	42.9%	0.8	66.7%	15.3%
9	Mathieu Grujicic	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	5.5	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.2	18.8%	14.3%	1.2	42.9%	20.7%
55	Braylen Nash	G	So	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
17	Josh Ojianwuna	F	Sr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Myles Herro	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UConn2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Silas Demary Jr.	G	Jr	6'4"	39-38	28.4	10.1	4.5	5.9	2.2	50.9%	38.5%	2.3	80.1%	23.7%
1	Solo Ball	G	Jr	6'4"	39-39	28.3	12.8	3.0	1.5	1.2	48.4%	30.0%	6.6	85.2%	28.7%
24	Braylon Mullins	G	Fr	6'6"	33-29	28.2	12.0	3.5	1.4	1.2	52.4%	33.5%	6.5	88.9%	26.7%
23	Jayden Ross	F	Jr	6'7"	38-0	17.5	4.6	2.5	0.8	0.6	60.7%	39.1%	1.7	69.2%	15.0%
0	Malachi Smith	G	Sr	6'1"	40-2	15.9	3.6	1.5	3.0	0.9	46.1%	44.7%	1.2	53.2%	17.9%
12	Eric Reibe	C	Fr	7'1"	40-5	13.8	5.9	3.3	0.5	0.6	67.1%	30.8%	0.3	52.1%	22.6%
3	Jaylin Stewart	F	Jr	6'7"	32-12	16.2	4.2	2.6	1.1	0.7	51.3%	34.5%	1.7	59.3%	17.2%
4	Dwayne Koroma	F	Sr	6'8"	16-0	5.8	1.5	0.9	0.2	0.3	56.3%	—	0.0	54.5%	17.2%
9	Alec Millender	G	Sr	6'1"	18-0	3.3	0.6	0.3	0.4	0.2	40.9%	14.3%	0.4	66.7%	15.1%
77	Uros Paunovic	G	Jr	6'3"	12-0	1.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	7.9%
10	Rrezon Elezaj	C	Fr	7'1"	4-0	1.3	0.0	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	23.0%
13	Jacob Ross	F	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Ohio State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Devin Royal	F	Jr	6'6"	32-32	32.5	13.7	5.7	1.6	1.7	52.5%	31.6%	3.1	80.2%	25.1%
0	John Mobley Jr.	G	So	6'1"	31-31	31.6	15.7	2.4	2.8	1.8	56.7%	41.1%	7.6	86.8%	28.2%
1	Amare Bynum	F	Fr	6'8"	34-24	28.5	9.7	4.9	1.1	1.1	56.1%	30.8%	2.7	72.6%	20.2%
4	Gabe Cupps	G	So	6'2"	33-0	12.2	1.7	1.1	1.1	0.6	45.6%	25.9%	0.8	73.7%	11.2%
3	Taison Chatman	G	So	6'4"	28-3	12.9	4.3	1.2	0.8	0.8	59.8%	47.1%	1.8	85.0%	19.8%
7	Ivan Njegovan	C	So	7'1"	30-2	11.4	2.6	3.0	0.7	0.6	58.8%	66.7%	0.1	65.5%	14.7%
14	Brandon Noel	F	Sr	6'8"	16-10	18.9	6.6	3.7	0.9	1.0	65.1%	20.0%	0.9	73.3%	18.3%
6	Puff Johnson	G	Sr	6'8"	9-1	11.4	2.3	1.1	0.1	0.4	41.7%	42.9%	0.8	66.7%	15.3%
9	Mathieu Grujicic	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	5.5	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.2	18.8%	14.3%	1.2	42.9%	20.7%
55	Braylen Nash	G	So	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
17	Josh Ojianwuna	F	Sr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Myles Herro	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Ohio State

Against the spread

Season

17-16-1

Home

7-9-1

Road

6-5

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +6.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-18

Home

10-7

Road

4-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −4.5

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#9TCUAdjEM #51	N	L 64–66	−2.0	L−4.0	146.0	U130	102.5	105.7	62.4
Mar 13	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 67–71	+12.5	W+8.5	155.0	U138	100.0	106.0	67.0
Mar 12	IowaAdjEM #22	N	W 72–69	+1.5	W+4.5	140.5	O141	124.1	118.9	58.0
Mar 7	IndianaAdjEM #45	H	W 91–78	−4.0	W+9.0	148.0	O169	134.0	114.8	67.9
Mar 4	Penn StateAdjEM #194	A	W 94–62	−7.0	W+25.0	152.0	O156	145.1	95.7	64.8
Mar 1	#8PurdueAdjEM #9	H	W 82–74	+6.5	W+14.5	149.5	O156	133.4	120.4	61.5
Feb 25	IowaAdjEM #22	A	L 57–74	+6.0	L−11.0	140.5	U131	97.4	126.4	58.5
Feb 22	#15Michigan StAdjEM #11	A	L 60–66	+10.0	W+4.0	147.0	U126	98.4	108.2	61.0
Feb 17	#24WisconsinAdjEM #28	H	W 86–69	−1.0	W+16.0	157.5	U155	125.0	100.3	68.8
Feb 14	#15VirginiaAdjEM #15	N	L 66–70	+5.0	W+1.0	147.0	U136	100.4	106.5	65.7

UConn

Against the spread

Season

17-23

Home

4-13

Road

5-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover −0.8

Covered 5 straightCovered 4 of 7 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-22-1

Home

7-9-1

Road

5-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.3

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 7 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 6	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 63–69	+6.5	W+0.5	146.0	U132	96.3	105.4	65.4
Apr 4	#3IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	W 71–62	+1.5	W+10.5	139.0	U133	111.8	97.6	63.5
Mar 29	#1DukeAdjEM #2	N	W 73–72	+4.5	W+5.5	135.5	O145	116.3	114.7	62.8
Mar 27	#3Michigan StAdjEM #11	N	W 67–63	−2.0	W+2.0	136.0	U130	105.4	99.1	63.6
Mar 22	#7UCLAAdjEM #37	N	W 73–57	−5.5	W+10.5	136.0	U130	115.9	90.5	63.0
Mar 20	#15FurmanAdjEM #163	N	W 82–71	−21.0	L−10.0	135.0	O153	125.3	108.5	65.4
Mar 14	#13St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 52–72	−2.0	L−22.0	139.5	U124	82.7	114.5	62.9
Mar 13	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	N	W 67–51	−14.0	W+2.0	139.0	U118	112.6	85.7	59.5
Mar 12	XavierAdjEM #129	N	W 93–68	−16.5	W+8.5	151.0	O161	144.4	105.5	64.4
Mar 7	MarquetteAdjEM #100	A	L 62–68	−10.0	L−16.0	142.5	U130	92.2	101.1	67.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Ohio StateUConn

Efficiency

117.4

116.7

104.9

98.2

67.5

66.4

—

Shooting

56.2%

54.3%

58.0%

56.1%

35.7%

34.4%

77.7%

72.4%

37.2%

29.9%

Ball control & glass

15.3%

16.4%

15.6%

17.8%

30.4%

35.7%

30.0%

28.8%

8.1%

8.5%

8.9%

10.1%

Style

40.1%

40.9%

43.4%

45.8%

8.5%

11.7%

52.6%

64.9%

23.7%

27.5%

Roster

2.19

2.62

6'5.5"

66.1%

70.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Ohio State

Returning minutes: 66.1%Returning production: 58.1%

Lost

Bruce Thornton 36.6 mpg, 19.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Christoph Tilly 24.5 mpg, 10.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Colin White 7.5 mpg, 0.7 ppg · transferred to Akron

Added

Myles Herro no D1 minutes last season
Josh Ojianwuna no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 66% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

UConn

Returning minutes: 70.6%Returning production: 63.9%

Lost

Alex Karaban 34.3 mpg, 13.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tarris Reed Jr. 23.9 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jacob Furphy 0.9 mpg, 0.1 ppg · transferred to Boston College

Added

Jacob Ross no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 71% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.