CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceUniversity Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA
UIC
Efficiency #99
2025-26: 19-16 · 14-9 conf
@
Saint Mary's
Efficiency #23
2025-26: 27-6 · 16-3 conf
Fri, Nov 13 · TBD
65.3
win 18%
Projected
75.8
win 82%
No line posted yet.
Model: SMC −10.5 · total 141.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Saint Mary's 66.7, UIC 67.7 → 66.1 possessions
−4.8
Saint Mary's offense vs UIC defense
+2.2
UIC offense vs Saint Mary's defense
−4.5
Projected total
141.1
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Saint Mary's offense vs UIC defense
+2.2
UIC offense vs Saint Mary's defense
+4.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Saint Mary's by 10.5
10.5
UIC side ◂▸ Saint Mary's side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Saint Mary's.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UIC is the faster team (67.1, #241 of 365) and Saint Mary's the slower (66.2, #288). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
141.1
model
Projected team totals
65.3 / 75.8
UIC / Saint Mary's
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.7#234
UIC
66.7#305
Saint Mary's
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageUIC
Where UIC struggles: shooting
UIC shoots an effective 49.8% (#245); Saint Mary's allows 46.8% (#19). Expect about 48.2%, 3.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.4 points per 100 possessions.
ClashSaint Mary's
Style match: ball movement
Saint Mary's assists on 57.8% of its made baskets; UIC allows assists on 66.0% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 64.7% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageSaint Mary's
Where Saint Mary's scores: the offensive glass
Saint Mary's rebounds 37.5% of its own misses (#11); UIC lets opponents grab 32.0% of their own misses (#255). Expect about 36.1%, 5.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Saint Mary's averages 66.2 possessions per 40, UIC 67.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
TurnoversSaint Mary's
Saint Mary's turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.7% is worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions against Saint Mary's's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Saint Mary's, Saint Mary's's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UIC at about 32.6% of its shots from three, Saint Mary's about 41.5%.
UIC has the ball
OffenseSaint Mary's allowsvs D1 avg
49.8% #245
46.8% #19
-4.4 pt/100
17.6% #243
15.2% #270
+0.6 pt/100
36.3% #22
23.9% #4
+0.6 pt/100
36.2% #145
25.7% #12
-0.6 pt/100
72.5% #186
—
+0.0 pt/100
UIC net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.8 pts/100
Saint Mary's has the ball
OffenseUIC allowsvs D1 avg
52.8% #109
50.5% #125
+0.7 pt/100
16.8% #189
19.7% #31
-2.3 pt/100
37.5% #11
32.0% #255
+3.5 pt/100
35.5% #162
33.9% #149
-0.1 pt/100
80.3% #2
—
+0.7 pt/100
Saint Mary's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersUICoffense vsSaint Mary'sdefense
Share of shots by zone
UIC shoots
40.4
9.3
17.2
33.1
Saint Mary's allows
36.6
7.7
18.7
37.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.2%#221 | 54.4%#47 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.1%#63 | 46.4%#324 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.1%#219 | 33.7%#43 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.6%#300 | 31.3%#40 | 33.7% |
Saint Mary'soffense vsUICdefense
Share of shots by zone
Saint Mary's shoots
37.5
7.8
17.6
37.0
UIC allows
34.8
5.5
13.3
46.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.4%#215 | 57.9%#144 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.2%#117 | 32.6%#25 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.5%#253 | 39.9%#239 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.7%#7 | 33.4%#147 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersUIC
+3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#46 of 365
Off reb %
36.3%
#22
Def reb %
68.0%
#255
Turnover %
17.6%
#243
Forced TO %
19.7%
#31
FT rate
36.2%
#145
FT allowed
33.9%
#149
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+2.1
Foul shots drawn+0.3
Foul shots allowed+0.3
Saint Mary's
+6.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#13 of 365
Off reb %
37.5%
#11
Def reb %
76.1%
#4
Turnover %
16.8%
#189
Forced TO %
15.2%
#270
FT rate
35.5%
#162
FT allowed
25.7%
#12
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.3
Defensive rebounding+2.2
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed+2.4
Saint Mary's has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.0 (#13 of 365) to UIC’s +3.6 (#46).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
UIC2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UIC's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Andy Johnson | G | Fr | 6'6" | 35-34 | 28.7 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 46.7% | 34.8% | 4.4 | 85.5% | 24.4% | |
| 22 | Mekhi Lowery | G | Jr | 6'7" | 35-35 | 26.1 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 51.1% | — | 0.0 | 62.9% | 20.7% | |
| 7 | Abdul Momoh | F | Sr | 6'8" | 35-14 | 23.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 61.5% | — | 0.0 | 50.5% | 19.5% | |
| 5 | Rashund Washington Jr. | G | Fr | 6'5" | 35-31 | 23.0 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 33.7% | 2.4 | 75.4% | 21.2% | |
| 0 | Ahmad Henderson II | G | Jr | 5'10" | 35-15 | 21.3 | 12.0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 45.4% | 29.3% | 4.2 | 87.1% | 36.6% | |
| 20 | Sam Silverstein | G | Sr | 6'6" | 35-4 | 21.3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 47.6% | 10.0% | 0.3 | 51.4% | 10.8% | |
| 1 | Jayce Nathaniel | F | Fr | 6'8" | 35-16 | 19.8 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 44.8% | 24.1% | 1.5 | 70.8% | 21.1% | |
| 2 | Elijah Crawford | G | So | 6'3" | 23-17 | 25.9 | 14.1 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 49.3% | 27.6% | 3.3 | 75.3% | 37.0% | |
| 10 | Josiah Hammons | G | Sr | 6'2" | 34-3 | 14.6 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 55.0% | 38.6% | 4.1 | 79.5% | 24.0% | |
| 21 | Ante Beljan | F | Jr | 6'10" | 26-5 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 62.9% | — | 0.0 | 65.0% | 26.6% | |
| 27 | Tai Walters-Whitaker | G | Sr | 6'2" | 14-1 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 30.6% | 25.0% | 0.3 | — | 15.8% | |
| 3 | Carlos Harris III | G | Fr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | — | 11.2% | |
| 25 | AJ Morgan | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Chris Walker | G | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | Nano Barrantes | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| — | Jalen Johnson | NA | — | — | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Saint Mary's2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Joshua Dent | G | So | 6'3" | 33-33 | 36.2 | 13.2 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 56.7% | 40.4% | 4.6 | 91.8% | 21.7% | |
| 23 | Paulius Murauskas | F | Jr | 6'8" | 33-32 | 32.2 | 18.4 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 52.5% | 33.3% | 3.3 | 84.0% | 32.7% | |
| 11 | Dillan Shaw | G | Fr | 6'7" | 33-22 | 27.5 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 55.7% | 41.6% | 3.8 | 69.7% | 17.0% | |
| 0 | Mikey Lewis | G | So | 6'3" | 33-33 | 26.8 | 13.9 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 48.6% | 36.8% | 5.6 | 88.2% | 33.0% | |
| 45 | Andrew McKeever | C | So | 7'2" | 33-10 | 23.1 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 62.8% | 24.8% | |
| 33 | Liam Campbell | G | Fr | 6'4" | 33-0 | 14.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 63.7% | 52.0% | 1.5 | 80.0% | 16.9% | |
| 8 | Rory Hawke | G | Fr | 6'5" | 31-4 | 11.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 54.7% | 22.2% | 0.6 | 78.3% | 14.3% | |
| 6 | Mantas Juzenas | G | Fr | 6'6" | 26-1 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 66.2% | 48.4% | 1.2 | 55.6% | 19.5% | |
| 2 | Tony Duckett | G | So | 6'4" | 20-0 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 45.1% | 30.8% | 0.7 | 92.0% | 29.4% | |
| 24 | Kevin Gad | F | Jr | 6'6" | 7-7 | 10.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 45.5% | 33.3% | 0.9 | — | 10.0% | |
| 22 | Cade Bennett | G | Jr | 6'0" | 8-0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 60.0% | 40.0% | 0.6 | 50.0% | 12.9% | |
| 14 | Oliver Faubert | F | Fr | 6'8" | 11-0 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | — | 11.5% | |
| 32 | Jazz Gardner | C | Jr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 42 | Trent MacLean | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
UIC2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UIC's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Andy Johnson | G | Fr | 6'6" | 35-34 | 28.7 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 46.7% | 34.8% | 4.4 | 85.5% | 24.4% | |
| 22 | Mekhi Lowery | G | Jr | 6'7" | 35-35 | 26.1 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 51.1% | — | 0.0 | 62.9% | 20.7% | |
| 7 | Abdul Momoh | F | Sr | 6'8" | 35-14 | 23.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 61.5% | — | 0.0 | 50.5% | 19.5% | |
| 5 | Rashund Washington Jr. | G | Fr | 6'5" | 35-31 | 23.0 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 33.7% | 2.4 | 75.4% | 21.2% | |
| 0 | Ahmad Henderson II | G | Jr | 5'10" | 35-15 | 21.3 | 12.0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 45.4% | 29.3% | 4.2 | 87.1% | 36.6% | |
| 20 | Sam Silverstein | G | Sr | 6'6" | 35-4 | 21.3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 47.6% | 10.0% | 0.3 | 51.4% | 10.8% | |
| 1 | Jayce Nathaniel | F | Fr | 6'8" | 35-16 | 19.8 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 44.8% | 24.1% | 1.5 | 70.8% | 21.1% | |
| 2 | Elijah Crawford | G | So | 6'3" | 23-17 | 25.9 | 14.1 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 49.3% | 27.6% | 3.3 | 75.3% | 37.0% | |
| 10 | Josiah Hammons | G | Sr | 6'2" | 34-3 | 14.6 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 55.0% | 38.6% | 4.1 | 79.5% | 24.0% | |
| 21 | Ante Beljan | F | Jr | 6'10" | 26-5 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 62.9% | — | 0.0 | 65.0% | 26.6% | |
| 27 | Tai Walters-Whitaker | G | Sr | 6'2" | 14-1 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 30.6% | 25.0% | 0.3 | — | 15.8% | |
| 3 | Carlos Harris III | G | Fr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | — | 11.2% | |
| 25 | AJ Morgan | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Chris Walker | G | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | Nano Barrantes | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| — | Jalen Johnson | NA | — | — | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26UIC
Against the spread
Season
17-16
Home
7-5
Road
8-8
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +4.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-17
Home
4-8
Road
8-8
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +6.8
Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | California | A | L 73–91 | +6.5 | L−11.5 | 151.0 | O164 | 102.6 | 127.9 | 71.2 |
| Mar 8 | Northern Iowa | N | L 69–84 | +3.0 | L−12.0 | 124.5 | O153 | 116.5 | 141.8 | 59.2 |
| Mar 7 | Drake | N | W 72–51 | −4.5 | W+16.5 | 143.5 | U123 | 115.9 | 82.1 | 62.1 |
| Mar 6 | Murray St | N | W 92–79 | −1.0 | W+12.0 | 149.5 | O171 | 116.6 | 100.1 | 78.9 |
| Mar 1 | Indiana St | A | L 63–79 | −4.0 | L−20.0 | 144.0 | U142 | 93.3 | 117.0 | 67.5 |
| Feb 24 | Bradley | H | W 93–86 2OT | −2.0 | W+5.0 | 142.0 | O179 | 118.8 | 109.8 | 78.3 |
| Feb 21 | Valparaiso | H | L 67–71 | −7.0 | L−11.0 | 138.5 | U138 | 104.3 | 110.6 | 64.2 |
| Feb 18 | Evansville | A | W 84–46 | −8.0 | W+30.0 | 140.0 | U130 | 130.1 | 71.2 | 64.6 |
| Feb 15 | Illinois St | H | W 83–56 | +1.0 | W+28.0 | 141.0 | U139 | 114.0 | 76.9 | 72.8 |
| Feb 12 | Drake | A | W 80–70 | +1.0 | W+11.0 | 146.5 | O150 | 122.0 | 106.7 | 65.6 |
Saint Mary's
Against the spread
Season
19-13
Home
12-4
Road
6-4
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +3.0
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 6 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
12-18-2
Home
7-7-2
Road
4-6
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −5.3
Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 9 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #10Texas A&M | N | L 50–63 | −2.5 | L−15.5 | 148.5 | U113 | 84.5 | 106.4 | 59.2 |
| Mar 9 | Santa Clara | N | L 71–76 | −4.5 | L−9.5 | 150.0 | U147 | 114.8 | 122.9 | 61.8 |
| Feb 28 | #9Gonzaga | H | W 70–59 | +2.5 | W+13.5 | 143.0 | U129 | 109.4 | 92.2 | 64.0 |
| Feb 25 | Santa Clara | H | W 86–67 | −5.5 | W+13.5 | 154.0 | U153 | 131.5 | 102.4 | 65.4 |
| Feb 21 | Washington St | A | W 83–67 | −8.5 | W+7.5 | 148.5 | O150 | 131.9 | 106.5 | 62.9 |
| Feb 18 | Seattle U | A | W 72–70 | −9.5 | L−7.5 | 133.0 | O142 | 98.4 | 95.7 | 73.1 |
| Feb 14 | Pacific | A | W 72–61 | −7.0 | W+4.0 | 135.5 | U133 | 113.5 | 96.2 | 63.4 |
| Feb 11 | Pepperdine | H | W 88–60 | −24.5 | W+3.5 | 144.0 | O148 | 122.9 | 83.8 | 71.6 |
| Feb 7 | San Francisco | H | W 79–54 | −11.5 | W+13.5 | 143.0 | U133 | 123.1 | 84.1 | 64.2 |
| Feb 4 | San Diego | H | W 87–60 | −19.5 | W+7.5 | 149.0 | U147 | 136.3 | 94.0 | 63.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUICSaint Mary's
Efficiency
109.3
114.9
105.4
100.8
67.7
66.7
—
—
Shooting
49.8%
52.8%
51.0%
49.8%
31.6%
38.7%
72.5%
80.3%
36.2%
35.5%
Ball control & glass
17.6%
16.8%
19.7%
15.2%
36.3%
37.5%
32.0%
23.9%
9.5%
8.4%
10.3%
8.8%
Style
32.8%
36.4%
48.4%
40.9%
14.2%
10.5%
53.6%
57.8%
39.3%
29.3%
Roster
2.51
1.88
6'5.1"
6'6.2"
—
91.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUIC
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UIC's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Saint Mary's
Returning minutes: 91.9%Returning production: 91.8%
Lost
- Harry Wessels 16.2 mpg, 4.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Trent MacLean no D1 minutes last season
- Jazz Gardner no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 92% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.