Alcorn State Braves vs Tarleton State Texans basketball preview & prediction
Fri, Nov 13 · 8:00 PM ET · EECU Center, Stephenville, TX
Non-conferenceESPN+EECU Center, Stephenville, TX
Alcorn St
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #358
@
Tarleton St
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #224
Fri, Nov 13 · 8:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 73.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Alcorn St is the faster team (74.0, #86 of 365) and Tarleton St the slower (70.7, #185). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
73.1
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.2#85
Alcorn St
71.5#121
Tarleton St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Tarleton St has the ball+19.3
Alcorn St has the ball−0.2
Tarleton St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 61.5% #26 · ALCN allows 62.4% #337+13.2
✓Wins second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · ALCN allows 43.6% #335+3.2
✓Gets to the lineFTR 75.0% #1 · ALCN allows 62.4% #345 · FT 66.7% #229+2.8
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 22.6% #306 · ALCN forces 14.2% #289 · ~13 turnovers+0.1
Alcorn St has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 35.1% #107 · TAR allows 45.0% #342+4.0
✗Coughs it upTO% 25.0% #332 · TAR forces 17.6% #192 · ~16 turnovers−3.1
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 50.0% #176 · TAR allows 47.7% #123−1.6
✓Gets to the lineFTR 35.0% #200 · TAR allows 60.0% #340 · FT 58.5% #327+0.4
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootAlcorn Stoffense vsTarleton Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Alcorn St shoots
20.4
10.8
23.7
45.2
Tarleton St allows
46.2
6.2
4.6
43.1
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 68.4%#64 | 33.3%#3 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.0%#228 | 75.0%#336 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.5%#84 | 0.0%#1 | 34.7% |
| Three | 35.8%#117 | 42.9%#324 | 32.5% |
Tarleton Stoffense vsAlcorn Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Tarleton St shoots
44.2
0.0
7.7
48.1
Alcorn St allows
42.7
10.4
12.5
34.4
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 69.6%#57 | 82.9%#355 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | — | 30.0%#111 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 25.0%#245 | 41.7%#235 | 34.7% |
| Three | 40.0%#56 | 33.3%#185 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineAlcorn St
−17.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#355 of 365
Off reb %
35.1%
#107
Def reb %
56.4%
#335
Turnover %
25.0%
#332
Forced TO %
14.2%
#289
FT rate
35.0%
#200
FT allowed
62.4%
#345
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding−4.0
Ball security−4.8
Forcing turnovers−2.8
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−6.4
Tarleton St
−3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#226 of 365
Off reb %
33.3%
#135
Def reb %
55.0%
#342
Turnover %
22.6%
#306
Forced TO %
17.6%
#192
FT rate
75.0%
#1
FT allowed
60.0%
#340
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−4.5
Ball security−3.1
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn+9.8
Foul shots allowed−5.7
Tarleton St has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.2 (#226 of 365) to Alcorn St’s −17.3 (#355).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notAlcorn St2026-27 numbers · last game: Howard, Nov 5
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | G | So | 6'5" | 2-2 | 26.0 | 28 | — | Started last | 9.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 44.4% | 4.5 | — | 20.9% | |
| 3 | G | — | — | 2-2 | 24.0 | 24 | — | Started last | 12.0 | 1.5 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 95.0% | 71.4% | 3.5 | 50.0% | 25.7% | |
| 11 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 21.0 | 23 | — | Bench | 9.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 53.8% | 66.7% | 1.5 | 55.6% | 27.5% | |
| 2 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 19.5 | 15 | — | Bench | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 2.5 | 87.5% | 27.5% | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 1-1 | 33.0 | 33 | — | Started last | 27.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 44.4% | 30.8% | 13.0 | 75.0% | 54.7% | |
| 35 | C | So | 6'11" | 2-0 | 15.5 | 17 | — | Bench | 1.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 5.2% | |
| 13 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 2-2 | 14.0 | 19 | — | Started last | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 31.3% | 25.0% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 21.3% | |
| 7 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 2-1 | 12.5 | 11 | — | Bench | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 23.8% | |
| 15 | C | Sr | 7'1" | 2-2 | 11.0 | 9 | — | Started last | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 80.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 20.9% | |
| 23 | G | Fr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 11.0 | 14 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 13.4% | |
| 6 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 1 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 13.3% | |
| 10 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 7.5 | — | — | Active | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 10.8% | |
| 5 | F | Jr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 6.0 | — | — | Active | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 22.4% | |
| 8 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 11.0 | — | — | Missed last | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 2.0 | — | 14.6% | |
| 12 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 4.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 26.8% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesAlcorn St
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-1
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −6.0
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-0
avg vs total +18.0
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | Howard | H | L 83–94 | +9.5 | L−1.5 | 149.5 | O177 | 114.5 | 129.6 | 72.5 |
| Nov 2 | Ole Miss | A | L 58–99 | +30.5 | L−10.5 | 148.5 | O157 | 76.8 | 131.0 | 75.6 |
| Mar 10 | Prairie View | N | L 56–65 | +6.0 | L−3.0 | 142.5 | U121 | 84.2 | 97.7 | 66.5 |
| Mar 9 | Alabama St | N | W 77–65 | +7.5 | W+19.5 | 142.0 | P142 | 109.4 | 92.4 | 70.4 |
| Mar 5 | AR-Pine Bluff | H | L 48–83 | +1.0 | L−34.0 | 144.0 | U131 | 64.5 | 111.6 | 74.4 |
| Mar 3 | Miss Valley St | H | W 67–64 | −9.5 | L−6.5 | 139.0 | U131 | 103.7 | 99.1 | 64.6 |
| Feb 28 | Prairie View | A | L 51–72 | +4.5 | L−16.5 | 150.0 | U123 | 72.5 | 102.3 | 70.4 |
| Feb 26 | Texas Southern | A | L 87–92 OT | +6.5 | W+1.5 | 145.0 | O179 | 109.3 | 115.6 | 79.6 |
| Feb 21 | Jackson St | H | W 83–65 | −1.0 | W+17.0 | 149.0 | U148 | 115.8 | 90.7 | 71.7 |
| Feb 16 | Florida A&M | H | L 78–86 | +1.5 | L−6.5 | 137.0 | O164 | 109.0 | 120.1 | 71.6 |
Tarleton St
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +1.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +38.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | UT Dallas Comets | H | W 76–57 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 6 | San Diego | A | L 90–96 OT | +7.5 | W+1.5 | 148.0 | O186 | 113.2 | 120.7 | 79.5 |
| Nov 2 | Cameron Aggies | H | W 86–60 | — | — | — | — | 113.0 | 78.9 | 76.1 |
| Mar 11 | Abilene Chrstn | N | L 78–84 | +1.0 | L−5.0 | 135.0 | O162 | 102.0 | 109.8 | 76.5 |
| Mar 5 | UT Arlington | H | L 60–65 | −1.0 | L−6.0 | 136.0 | U125 | 99.2 | 107.4 | 60.5 |
| Feb 28 | CA Baptist | A | L 67–82 | +7.5 | L−7.5 | 139.0 | O149 | 100.2 | 122.7 | 66.8 |
| Feb 26 | Utah Valley | A | L 72–79 | +17.0 | W+10.0 | 141.5 | O151 | 103.7 | 113.8 | 69.4 |
| Feb 21 | Utah Tech | H | L 72–80 | −1.5 | L−9.5 | 141.0 | O152 | 111.1 | 123.4 | 64.8 |
| Feb 19 | Southern Utah | H | W 78–74 | −5.0 | L−1.0 | 145.0 | O152 | 116.5 | 110.5 | 67.0 |
| Feb 16 | Abilene Chrstn | H | W 65–62 OT | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 133.5 | U127 | 85.8 | 81.8 | 75.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeAlcorn StTarleton St
Efficiency
97.8
103.8
116.1
107.6
72.2
71.5
6.1
-4.9
Shooting
50.0%
61.5%
46.9%
63.0%
35.8%
40.0%
58.5%
66.7%
35.0%
75.0%
Ball control & glass
25.0%
22.6%
14.2%
17.6%
35.1%
33.3%
43.6%
45.0%
11.5%
7.5%
14.1%
7.4%
Style
45.3%
48.1%
28.4%
35.6%
14.2%
10.0%
67.3%
63.0%
50.7%
33.9%
Roster
2.65
3.29
6'6.5"
6'5.1"
0.0%
16.2%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputAlcorn St
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Nick Woodard 28.7 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Shane Lancaster 28.6 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to NC A&T
- Jameel Morris 27.7 mpg, 10.5 ppg · transferred to Bethune
- Tycen McDaniels 27.3 mpg, 12.0 ppg · transferred to UT Arlington
- Davian Williams 26.4 mpg, 7.8 ppg · transferred to Prairie View
- Omari Hamilton 21.4 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Ma'Kye Taylor from UAlbany · 13.3 mpg, 3.3 ppg last season
- Christian Richardson from Omaha · 12.8 mpg, 6.1 ppg last season
- Trey Thomas from S Indiana · 3.0 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
- Jayan Walker from Indiana St · 2.4 mpg, 0.8 ppg last season
- Braylhan Thomas from Winthrop · 1.5 mpg, 0.9 ppg last season
- Jahseem Felton from Seton Hall · 1.3 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Tarleton St
Returning minutes: 16.4%Returning production: 13.6%
Lost
- Jordan Mizell 27.6 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Texas A&M-CC
- Kaia Isaac 25.3 mpg, 5.6 ppg · transferred to Portland
- Freddy Hicks 22.0 mpg, 7.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Dior Johnson 16.4 mpg, 15.0 ppg · transferred to UCF
- Ocypher Owens 16.1 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cam McDowell 15.7 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Caleb Blackwell from UTEP · 27.5 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
- Isaac Harrell from Elon · 25.8 mpg, 7.4 ppg last season
- Franck Emmou from Texas St · 21.8 mpg, 7.0 ppg last season
- TJ Cope from LSU N Orleans · 20.7 mpg, 8.0 ppg last season
- JaVar Daniel from West Georgia · 18.6 mpg, 7.2 ppg last season
- Josh Hayes from Utah · 13.3 mpg, 2.8 ppg last season
Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Fri, Nov 13
- West Florida vs Cleveland St · 3:00 PM ET
- Texas A&M-CC at Florida St · 5:00 PM ET
- North Alabama at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
- Georgetown at Clemson · 6:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Rutgers · 6:00 PM ET
- Pitt at Butler · 6:30 PM ET
- Merrimack at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Georgia at North Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Tennessee St at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
- Long Island at Fordham · 7:00 PM ET
- Harvard at G Washington · 7:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Illinois · 7:00 PM ET
- Troy at NC State · 7:00 PM ET
- Mount St Marys at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Yale at Northeastern · 7:00 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Elon · 7:00 PM ET
- Iona at Hofstra · 7:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
- Prairie View at Vanderbilt · 7:00 PM ET
- FIU at FGCU · 7:00 PM ET
- Columbia at Bucknell · 7:00 PM ET
- Marist at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Northern Iowa at Michigan St · 7:00 PM ET
- App State at Charlotte · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio State at UConn · 7:30 PM ET
- SE Missouri at MTSU · 7:30 PM ET
- NC Central at Liberty · 7:30 PM ET
- South Dakota at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
- FDU at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- SIUE at Duke · 8:00 PM ET
- Virginia at Maryland · 8:00 PM ET
- C Arkansas at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
- Milwaukee at TCU · 8:00 PM ET
- GA Southern at UCF · 8:00 PM ET
- Wright St at Samford · 8:00 PM ET
- Illinois St at N Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas Southern at Murray St · 8:00 PM ET
- Southern Miss at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood at Omaha · 8:45 PM ET
- Seton Hall at Alabama · 9:00 PM ET
- Xavier vs Mississippi St · 9:00 PM ET
- DePaul at Northwestern · 9:00 PM ET
- Arizona at Auburn · 9:00 PM ET
- Ball State at SMU · 9:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
- Stanford at UNLV · 9:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
- Miss Valley St at Oregon St · 9:30 PM ET
- UIC at Saint Mary's · 10:00 PM ET
- East Texas A&M at Portland · 10:00 PM ET
- UC San Diego at Utah State · 10:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at CA Baptist · 10:30 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.