CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
SIUE
Efficiency #229
2025-26: 19-13 · 12-9 conf
@
Duke
Efficiency #2
2025-26: 35-3 · 20-1 conf
Fri, Nov 13 · TBD
57.1
win 3%
Projected
79.2
win 97%
No line posted yet.
Model: DUKE −22.1 · total 136.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Duke 67.2, SIUE 66.4 → 65.3 possessions
−6.6
Duke offense vs SIUE defense
+6.5
SIUE offense vs Duke defense
−11.8
Projected total
136.3
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Duke offense vs SIUE defense
+6.5
SIUE offense vs Duke defense
+11.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Duke by 22.1
22.1
SIUE side ◂▸ Duke side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Duke.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Duke is the faster team (66.8, #250 of 365) and SIUE the slower (65.6, #314). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
136.3
model
Projected team totals
57.1 / 79.2
SIUE / Duke
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.4#326
SIUE
67.2#274
Duke

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSIUE
Where SIUE struggles: shooting
SIUE shoots an effective 49.5% (#266); Duke allows 46.2% (#13). Expect about 47.7%, 3.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageDuke
Where Duke scores: the offensive glass
Duke rebounds 38.4% of its own misses (#4); SIUE lets opponents grab 31.6% of their own misses (#235). Expect about 36.6%, 6.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.8 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Duke averages 66.8 possessions per 40, SIUE 65.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Duke's defense, SIUE's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect SIUE at about 40.4% of its shots from three, Duke about 42.1%.
ClashDuke
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
Duke (#7 in 2-point shooting) against SIUE (#11 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 53.7%. Historically Duke's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
GlassSIUE
SIUE gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.7% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against SIUE's offense.
SIUE has the ball
OffenseDuke allowsvs D1 avg
49.5% #266
46.2% #13
-5.2 pt/100
17.9% #268
17.3% #132
-1.2 pt/100
30.1% #195
25.2% #10
-1.7 pt/100
30.6% #294
22.8% #2
-1.2 pt/100
67.1% #343
—
-0.5 pt/100
SIUE net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.7 pts/100
Duke has the ball
OffenseSIUE allowsvs D1 avg
56.6% #13
45.6% #6
+0.3 pt/100
15.9% #135
17.0% #148
+0.4 pt/100
38.4% #4
31.6% #235
+3.8 pt/100
38.2% #97
34.3% #159
+0.1 pt/100
72.9% #175
—
+0.0 pt/100
Duke net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
SIUEoffense vsDukedefense
Share of shots by zone
SIUE shoots
Duke allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.9%#24155.4%#7558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)34.5%#29441.9%#22939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.0%#32934.4%#6138.0%
Three35.0%#12330.6%#2733.7%
Dukeoffense vsSIUEdefense
Share of shots by zone
Duke shoots
SIUE allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.4%#2954.3%#4558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.7%#10831.1%#2039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.1%#3435.7%#9938.0%
Three34.7%#13330.2%#1033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
SIUE
−1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#265 of 365
Off reb %
30.1%
#195
Def reb %
68.4%
#235
Turnover %
17.9%
#268
Forced TO %
17.0%
#148
FT rate
30.6%
#294
FT allowed
34.3%
#159
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Duke
+9.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#1 of 365
Off reb %
38.4%
#4
Def reb %
74.8%
#10
Turnover %
15.9%
#135
Forced TO %
17.3%
#132
FT rate
38.2%
#97
FT allowed
22.8%
#2
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.6
Defensive rebounding+1.7
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed+3.2

Duke has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.3 (#1 of 365) to SIUE’s −1.9 (#265).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

SIUE2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
5Jack CampionGSr5'11"32-3227.58.23.75.22.343.8%38.8%2.172.8%23.5%
33Jo ValrieFSr6'5"32-2423.66.34.30.41.149.4%37.3%2.368.9%18.4%
4Darrion BakerFSo6'8"32-1820.47.34.10.71.358.5%45.3%2.364.7%22.0%
9Tyler KingGJr6'4"30-1721.19.92.51.00.753.5%36.2%3.960.7%28.2%
1Jordan PickettGJr6'3"31-1519.95.33.01.30.941.3%31.1%2.972.2%20.6%
24Kyle ThomasFSr6'10"27-419.16.73.90.40.948.4%33.3%1.282.5%22.7%
0Ring MalithGSr6'9"14-1429.717.05.41.51.854.4%32.9%5.073.9%32.2%
2CJ HallGSr6'2"29-013.14.71.81.70.942.4%33.3%1.665.0%28.1%
21Myles ThompsonFSr6'7"8-828.610.86.11.42.047.9%21.4%1.854.3%26.5%
7Darius Robinson Jr.GSr6'1"22-09.63.40.80.80.544.0%29.2%2.264.3%25.8%
17Corentin EfonoGFr6'4"19-09.41.31.20.80.655.3%20.0%0.366.7%10.8%
8Harrison AlexanderGSo6'5"18-08.23.50.80.30.457.7%27.6%1.660.0%24.9%
20Iwo BagancFFr6'8"9-05.22.81.10.10.271.4%0.0%0.3100.0%20.9%
11Dehrio McCaskillGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
SIUEDuke
Efficiency
103.0
121.1
105.9
95.8
66.4
67.2
—
—
Shooting
49.5%
56.6%
47.8%
60.2%
35.0%
34.7%
67.1%
72.9%
30.6%
38.2%
Ball control & glass
17.9%
15.9%
17.0%
17.3%
30.1%
38.4%
31.6%
25.2%
10.6%
9.7%
8.9%
9.6%
Style
36.2%
43.5%
42.6%
45.5%
12.1%
12.2%
50.9%
58.8%
33.4%
32.2%
Roster
3.38
3.26
6'4.6"
6'6.5"
87.8%
43.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
SIUE
Returning minutes: 87.8%Returning production: 82.7%
Lost
  • Arnas Sakenis 24.5 mpg, 8.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Dehrio McCaskill no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Duke
Returning minutes: 43.2%Returning production: 36.9%
Lost
  • Cameron Boozer 33.5 mpg, 22.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Isaiah Evans 28.3 mpg, 15.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Maliq Brown 20.2 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Nikolas Khamenia 19.7 mpg, 5.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Darren Harris 9.1 mpg, 3.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Cameron Sheffield 1.2 mpg, 0.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • John Blackwell from Wisconsin · 32.8 mpg, 18.6 ppg last season
  • Drew Scharnowski from Belmont · 20.3 mpg, 10.1 ppg last season
  • Jacob Theodosiou from Loyola MD · 19.7 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
  • Sebastian Wilkins no D1 minutes last season
  • Cameron Williams no D1 minutes last season
  • Nick Arnold no D1 minutes last season

Returns 43% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.