Illinois State Redbirds vs North Dakota State Bison basketball preview & prediction
Fri, Nov 13 · 8:00 PM ET · Scheels Center, Fargo, ND
Non-conferenceScheels Center, Fargo, ND
Illinois St
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #104
@
N Dakota St
1-3 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #223
Fri, Nov 13 · 8:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, N Dakota St is the faster team (68.5, #250 of 365) and Illinois St the slower (64.0, #338). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.8
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.1#323
Illinois St
69.3#270
N Dakota St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
N Dakota St has the ball+4.7
Illinois St has the ball+10.1
N Dakota St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 46.9% #242 · ILST allows 57.9% #307+1.9
✓Wins second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · ILST allows 37.9% #291+1.8
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.1% #119 · ILST forces 16.9% #211 · ~11 turnovers+1.7
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 22.4% #329 · ILST allows 38.6% #199 · FT 68.2% #212−0.6
Illinois St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 56.1% #86 · NDSU allows 71.3% #357+13.4
✗Few second chancesOR% 22.2% #319 · NDSU allows 28.0% #124−3.3
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 19.8% #245 · NDSU forces 16.1% #235 · ~12 turnovers+0.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 31.8% #234 · NDSU allows 33.5% #144 · FT 70.6% #165−0.4
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootIllinois Stoffense vsN Dakota Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Illinois St shoots
30.0
6.0
15.0
49.0
N Dakota St allows
42.3
2.1
8.5
47.2
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.0%#146 | 71.7%#321 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#75 | 100.0%#348 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 66.7%#16 | 8.3%#23 | 34.7% |
| Three | 34.6%#135 | 53.2%#356 | 32.5% |
N Dakota Stoffense vsIllinois Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
N Dakota St shoots
39.1
9.2
1.7
50.0
Illinois St allows
40.7
5.6
22.2
31.5
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 45.6%#314 | 70.5%#310 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 18.8%#292 | 83.3%#347 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 66.7%#16 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 31.9%#186 | 33.3%#185 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineIllinois St
−8.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#301 of 365
Off reb %
22.2%
#319
Def reb %
62.1%
#291
Turnover %
19.8%
#245
Forced TO %
16.9%
#211
FT rate
31.8%
#234
FT allowed
38.6%
#199
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.1
Defensive rebounding−2.1
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.2
N Dakota St
−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#186 of 365
Off reb %
33.3%
#135
Def reb %
72.0%
#124
Turnover %
16.1%
#119
Forced TO %
16.1%
#235
FT rate
22.4%
#329
FT allowed
33.5%
#144
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn−3.9
Foul shots allowed+1.2
N Dakota St has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.8 (#186 of 365) to Illinois St’s −8.8 (#301).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notIllinois St2026-27 numbers · last game: Purdue, Nov 9
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | G | Sr | 5'11" | 3-3 | 35.0 | 40 | — | Started last | 19.3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 81.3% | 60.0% | 6.7 | 75.0% | 24.2% | |
| 9 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 3-2 | 26.7 | 28 | — | Started last | 15.0 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 59.4% | 40.0% | 6.7 | 58.3% | 33.0% | |
| 3 | G | So | 6'2" | 3-3 | 26.0 | 34 | — | Started last | 7.7 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 60.7% | 45.5% | 3.7 | 100.0% | 15.8% | |
| 5 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 3-3 | 23.0 | 17 | — | Started last | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 68.8% | 50.0% | 2.7 | 50.0% | 21.2% | |
| 0 | F | So | 6'9" | 3-3 | 22.0 | 26 | — | Started last | 6.7 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 72.7% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 17.8% | |
| 24 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 15.7 | 11 | — | Bench | 2.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 66.7% | 8.5% | |
| 35 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 3-1 | 14.0 | 12 | — | Bench | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 83.3% | 34.6% | |
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 13.0 | 7 | — | Bench | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 68.2% | 37.5% | 2.7 | — | 18.8% | |
| 33 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 12.3 | 19 | — | Bench | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 17.0% | |
| 15 | F | Fr | 6'11" | 3-0 | 10.3 | 6 | — | Bench | 6.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 72.7% | — | 0.0 | 57.1% | 30.1% | |
| 25 | G | Fr | 6'6" | 1-0 | 12.0 | — | — | Missed last | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 27.7% | |
| 4 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 7.0 | — | — | Missed last | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 25.6% | |
| 12 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 6.0 | — | — | Missed last | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 30.4% | |
| 13 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 6.0 | 0 | — | Missed last 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 10.1% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesIllinois St
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg cover 0.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +9.2
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Purdue | A | L 59–76 | +15.0 | L−2.0 | 144.0 | U135 | 98.5 | 126.9 | 59.9 |
| Nov 5 | Central State Marauders | H | W 100–55 | — | — | — | — | 150.9 | 83.0 | 66.3 |
| Nov 2 | Saint Mary's | A | L 85–90 OT | +7.0 | W+2.0 | 147.5 | O175 | 111.6 | 118.2 | 76.1 |
| Apr 2 | Auburn | N | L 66–88 | +8.0 | L−14.0 | 148.0 | O154 | 102.7 | 136.9 | 64.3 |
| Mar 25 | Dayton | A | W 61–55 | +7.0 | W+13.0 | 140.0 | U116 | 97.2 | 87.6 | 62.8 |
| Mar 22 | Wake Forest | A | W 78–75 | +8.0 | W+11.0 | 152.5 | O153 | 112.3 | 108.0 | 69.5 |
| Mar 18 | Kent State | H | W 79–58 | −4.5 | W+16.5 | 154.5 | U137 | 114.3 | 83.9 | 69.1 |
| Mar 6 | Northern Iowa | N | L 52–74 | +2.0 | L−20.0 | 129.5 | U126 | 83.5 | 118.9 | 62.3 |
| Mar 1 | Belmont | H | W 81–74 | +1.0 | W+8.0 | 151.0 | O155 | 131.1 | 119.8 | 61.8 |
| Feb 25 | Northern Iowa | A | W 71–69 | +5.0 | W+7.0 | 132.0 | O140 | 114.3 | 111.1 | 62.1 |
N Dakota St
Against the spread
Season
0-3
Home
0-0
Road
0-3
Last 10
0-3
avg cover −13.8
Missed the spread 3 straight
Over / under
Season
3-0
Home
0-0
Road
3-0
Last 10
3-0
avg vs total +14.0
Over 3 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | Bakersfield | A | L 80–91 | −2.5 | L−13.5 | 153.5 | O171 | 114.5 | 130.2 | 69.9 |
| Nov 6 | San Francisco | A | L 70–79 | +8.5 | L−0.5 | 145.5 | O149 | 103.3 | 116.6 | 67.7 |
| Nov 4 | Saint Mary's | A | L 64–105 | +13.5 | L−27.5 | 148.0 | O169 | 94.3 | 154.7 | 67.9 |
| Nov 2 | Crookston (MN) Golden Eagles | H | W 90–59 | — | — | — | — | 127.6 | 83.7 | 70.5 |
| Mar 19 | #3Michigan St | N | L 67–92 | +16.0 | L−9.0 | 144.5 | O159 | 92.0 | 126.4 | 72.8 |
| Mar 8 | North Dakota | N | W 70–62 | −11.0 | L−3.0 | 148.0 | U132 | 108.4 | 96.0 | 64.6 |
| Mar 7 | Omaha | N | W 74–50 | −8.0 | W+16.0 | 147.0 | U124 | 109.2 | 73.8 | 67.8 |
| Mar 5 | Oral Roberts | N | W 76–65 | −12.0 | L−1.0 | 147.5 | U141 | 113.3 | 96.9 | 67.1 |
| Feb 28 | North Dakota | H | W 96–63 | −12.0 | W+21.0 | 152.5 | O159 | 131.1 | 86.1 | 73.2 |
| Feb 26 | St Thomas | A | L 62–84 | +3.0 | L−19.0 | 155.5 | U146 | 95.1 | 128.8 | 65.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeIllinois StN Dakota St
Efficiency
108.6
107.8
102.7
111.6
68.1
69.3
17.0
3.6
Shooting
56.1%
46.9%
60.0%
46.1%
34.6%
31.9%
70.6%
68.2%
31.8%
22.4%
Ball control & glass
19.8%
16.1%
16.9%
16.1%
22.2%
33.3%
37.9%
28.0%
13.2%
6.3%
3.6%
21.6%
Style
48.6%
48.0%
34.7%
42.1%
13.2%
7.0%
66.7%
48.1%
38.6%
42.1%
Roster
3.13
2.56
6'4.7"
6'4.4"
34.0%
23.2%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputIllinois St
Returning minutes: 34.0%Returning production: 37.1%
Lost
- Boden Skunberg 26.3 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ty Pence 23.5 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Akron
- Landon Wolf 23.2 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ty'Reek Coleman 22.1 mpg, 9.7 ppg · transferred to Iowa
- Landon Moore 13.9 mpg, 3.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brandon Lieb 12.6 mpg, 3.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Malik Messina-Moore from Xavier · 33.2 mpg, 10.9 ppg last season
- Deng Garang from Le Moyne · 30.1 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
- Zaxton King from Missouri St · 27.0 mpg, 7.2 ppg last season
- Demarion Burch from Bradley · 17.6 mpg, 6.7 ppg last season
- Louie Semona III from Western KY · 2.4 mpg, 0.8 ppg last season
- Leyton Wolf no D1 minutes last season
Returns 34% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
N Dakota St
Returning minutes: 23.2%Returning production: 18.0%
Lost
- Trevian Carson 31.6 mpg, 11.9 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
- Damari Wheeler-Thomas 27.9 mpg, 13.2 ppg · transferred to Boise St
- Markhi Strickland 24.3 mpg, 11.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Noah Feddersen 21.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Colorado
- Tay Smith 19.8 mpg, 7.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Treyson Anderson 18.3 mpg, 10.4 ppg · transferred to Butler
Added
- Melvin Bell Jr. from San José St · 33.4 mpg, 8.7 ppg last season
- Rob Diaz III from Long Beach St · 21.9 mpg, 8.1 ppg last season
- Karl Poom from N Arizona · 19.6 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
- Jack Robison from Wisconsin · 0.9 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
- Oliver Junker no D1 minutes last season
- Colin Stack no D1 minutes last season
Returns 23% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Fri, Nov 13
- West Florida vs Cleveland St · 3:00 PM ET
- Texas A&M-CC at Florida St · 5:00 PM ET
- North Alabama at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
- Georgetown at Clemson · 6:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Rutgers · 6:00 PM ET
- Pitt at Butler · 6:30 PM ET
- Merrimack at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Georgia at North Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Tennessee St at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
- Long Island at Fordham · 7:00 PM ET
- Harvard at G Washington · 7:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Illinois · 7:00 PM ET
- Troy at NC State · 7:00 PM ET
- Mount St Marys at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Yale at Northeastern · 7:00 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Elon · 7:00 PM ET
- Iona at Hofstra · 7:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
- Prairie View at Vanderbilt · 7:00 PM ET
- FIU at FGCU · 7:00 PM ET
- Columbia at Bucknell · 7:00 PM ET
- Marist at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Northern Iowa at Michigan St · 7:00 PM ET
- App State at Charlotte · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio State at UConn · 7:30 PM ET
- SE Missouri at MTSU · 7:30 PM ET
- NC Central at Liberty · 7:30 PM ET
- South Dakota at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
- FDU at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- SIUE at Duke · 8:00 PM ET
- Virginia at Maryland · 8:00 PM ET
- C Arkansas at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
- Milwaukee at TCU · 8:00 PM ET
- GA Southern at UCF · 8:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Tarleton St · 8:00 PM ET
- Wright St at Samford · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas Southern at Murray St · 8:00 PM ET
- Southern Miss at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood at Omaha · 8:45 PM ET
- Seton Hall at Alabama · 9:00 PM ET
- Xavier vs Mississippi St · 9:00 PM ET
- DePaul at Northwestern · 9:00 PM ET
- Arizona at Auburn · 9:00 PM ET
- Ball State at SMU · 9:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
- Stanford at UNLV · 9:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
- Miss Valley St at Oregon St · 9:30 PM ET
- UIC at Saint Mary's · 10:00 PM ET
- East Texas A&M at Portland · 10:00 PM ET
- UC San Diego at Utah State · 10:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at CA Baptist · 10:30 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.