CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceColeman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL

Seton Hall

Efficiency #56

2025-26: 21-12 · 11-11 conf

Alabama

Efficiency #18

2025-26: 25-10 · 13-6 conf

Fri, Nov 13 · TBD

71.7

win 21%

Projected

81.0

win 79%

No line posted yet.

Model: ALA −9.3 · total 152.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Alabama 71.9, Seton Hall 66.9 → 70.5 possessions

+4.7

Alabama offense vs Seton Hall defense

+2.5

Seton Hall offense vs Alabama defense

−2.7

Projected total

152.7

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Alabama offense vs Seton Hall defense

+2.5

Seton Hall offense vs Alabama defense

+2.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Alabama by 9.3

9.3

Seton Hall side ◂▸ Alabama side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Alabama.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Alabama is the faster team (74.2, #5 of 365) and Seton Hall the slower (66.5, #273). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

152.7

model

Projected team totals

71.7 / 81.0

Seton Hall / Alabama

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.9#298

Seton Hall

71.9#5

Alabama

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

DefenseSeton Hall

Seton Hall's shot-blocking

Seton Hall ranks #1 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 17.1% of Alabama's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageSeton Hall

Where Seton Hall struggles: shooting

Seton Hall shoots an effective 47.6% (#321); Alabama allows 49.2% (#73). Expect about 48.1%, 3.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.5 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Alabama averages 74.2 possessions per 40, Seton Hall 66.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashSeton Hall

Style match: 3-point volume

Seton Hall rarely shoots threes (26.8% of its shots); Alabama runs teams off the line (35.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 26.7% — both habits push the same way.

TurnoversSeton Hall

Seton Hall protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.2% is worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions for Seton Hall's offense.

GlassSeton Hall

Seton Hall owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.2% is worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions for Seton Hall's offense.

Seton Hall has the ball

OffenseAlabama allowsvs D1 avg

47.6% #321

49.2% #73

-4.5 pt/100

16.7% #175

12.8% #359

+3.2 pt/100

35.6% #33

32.8% #295

+2.9 pt/100

35.3% #168

32.0% #103

-0.2 pt/100

72.3% #199

—

-0.0 pt/100

Seton Hall net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.4 pts/100

Alabama has the ball

OffenseSeton Hall allowsvs D1 avg

55.2% #34

47.3% #25

+0.3 pt/100

13.1% #9

21.5% #5

-1.1 pt/100

32.4% #111

31.9% #251

+1.3 pt/100

36.0% #150

42.1% #325

+0.6 pt/100

76.7% #39

—

+0.4 pt/100

Alabama net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Seton Halloffense vsAlabamadefense

Share of shots by zone

Seton Hall shoots

46.7

5.3

21.8

26.2

Alabama allows

36.8

7.0

21.2

35.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.5%#314	55.1%#64	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.7%#311	36.3%#98	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.9%#146	38.5%#175	38.0%
Three	30.5%#334	33.8%#170	33.7%

Alabamaoffense vsSeton Halldefense

Share of shots by zone

Alabama shoots

33.8

4.7

7.5

54.0

Seton Hall allows

39.7

3.7

14.7

41.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.8%#98	52.7%#22	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.6%#88	29.3%#13	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	45.7%#10	32.6%#22	38.0%
Three	35.8%#66	32.4%#87	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Seton Hall

+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#56 of 365

Off reb %

35.6%

#33

Def reb %

68.1%

#251

Turnover %

16.7%

#175

Forced TO %

21.5%

FT rate

35.3%

#168

FT allowed

42.1%

#325

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.7

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers+3.3

Foul shots drawn+0.1

Foul shots allowed−1.8

Alabama

+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#148 of 365

Off reb %

32.4%

#111

Def reb %

67.2%

#295

Turnover %

13.1%

Forced TO %

12.8%

#359

FT rate

36.0%

#150

FT allowed

32.0%

#103

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.7

Ball security+2.5

Forcing turnovers−2.7

Foul shots drawn+0.2

Foul shots allowed+0.8

Seton Hall has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.9 (#56 of 365) to Alabama’s +0.8 (#148).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Seton Hall2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Adam Clark	G	Jr	5'10"	33-33	30.7	12.7	3.0	4.9	2.6	45.0%	22.0%	1.2	74.6%	30.0%
14	AJ Staton-McCray	G	Sr	6'4"	33-33	27.5	11.8	3.2	1.4	1.3	47.7%	33.3%	4.9	87.5%	27.9%
23	Mike Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	33-31	20.9	7.0	2.6	1.5	1.0	44.8%	33.7%	3.0	75.9%	23.8%
22	Elijah Fisher	G	Sr	6'6"	33-33	20.7	6.6	2.9	0.8	0.8	48.0%	23.7%	1.2	69.6%	20.6%
6	Stephon Payne	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	20.2	5.9	6.5	0.6	0.7	52.4%	—	0.0	51.8%	18.7%
25	Najai Hines	F	Fr	6'10"	31-0	17.9	6.5	5.5	0.6	0.8	60.2%	—	0.0	69.0%	20.1%
13	Trey Parker	G	So	6'0"	32-0	15.5	4.3	2.8	1.5	1.1	39.2%	20.5%	1.4	80.0%	22.7%
7	Josh Rivera	F	Sr	6'6"	30-0	11.7	3.3	2.0	0.5	0.4	50.0%	33.3%	0.2	53.6%	18.5%
1	Jacob Dar	G	Sr	6'7"	30-0	10.4	3.3	2.0	0.3	0.3	51.3%	19.0%	0.7	76.9%	19.1%
54	Godswill Erheriene	C	So	6'9"	10-0	4.5	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.5	60.0%	—	0.0	66.7%	15.0%
15	Jahseem Felton	G	So	6'5"	3-0	14.0	1.7	1.3	0.3	0.3	12.5%	0.0%	1.3	75.0%	16.2%
35	Assane Mbaye	C	So	7'2"	4-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	15.2%
41	David Gabriel	G	Sr	6'1"	3-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	41.4%
9	Patrick Suemnick	F	Sr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Alabama2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Amari Allen	F	Fr	6'8"	32-24	28.3	11.4	6.9	3.1	1.4	53.3%	34.1%	4.3	73.8%	21.7%
22	Aiden Sherrell	F	So	6'10"	34-34	23.9	11.1	6.2	1.1	0.9	59.5%	33.8%	2.4	71.3%	22.4%
2	Aden Holloway	G	Jr	6'1"	28-27	28.4	16.8	2.8	3.8	1.5	59.9%	43.8%	6.0	86.4%	27.3%
7	Taylor Bol Bowen	F	Jr	6'10"	30-11	19.1	6.3	4.2	0.5	0.6	51.0%	30.2%	3.2	79.6%	18.0%
6	London Jemison	F	Fr	6'8"	33-13	15.6	6.2	3.4	0.4	0.6	54.1%	34.8%	2.7	60.4%	21.5%
15	Noah Williamson	C	Sr	7'0"	33-0	8.1	1.3	1.5	0.3	0.5	36.5%	16.7%	0.9	64.3%	14.7%
1	Jalil Bethea	G	So	6'5"	26-0	8.0	3.9	1.7	0.5	0.5	47.5%	31.4%	2.0	80.6%	27.6%
4	Davion Hannah	G	Fr	6'6"	10-0	12.7	3.3	1.9	0.8	1.0	53.8%	36.4%	1.1	62.5%	16.4%
10	Keitenn Bristow	F	So	6'10"	10-1	12.6	3.6	4.0	0.5	0.8	37.9%	11.1%	0.9	73.3%	20.0%
11	Preston Murphy Jr.	G	Jr	6'1"	6-0	2.5	0.3	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	17.8%
25	Jacob Martin	F	So	—	9-0	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	8.1%
34	Collins Onyejiaka	C	Fr	6'11"	2-0	5.5	1.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	50.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	22.7%
31	Jack Fagan	G	So	—	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
30	Klark James	G	Sr	—	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Seton Hall2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Adam Clark	G	Jr	5'10"	33-33	30.7	12.7	3.0	4.9	2.6	45.0%	22.0%	1.2	74.6%	30.0%
14	AJ Staton-McCray	G	Sr	6'4"	33-33	27.5	11.8	3.2	1.4	1.3	47.7%	33.3%	4.9	87.5%	27.9%
23	Mike Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	33-31	20.9	7.0	2.6	1.5	1.0	44.8%	33.7%	3.0	75.9%	23.8%
22	Elijah Fisher	G	Sr	6'6"	33-33	20.7	6.6	2.9	0.8	0.8	48.0%	23.7%	1.2	69.6%	20.6%
6	Stephon Payne	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	20.2	5.9	6.5	0.6	0.7	52.4%	—	0.0	51.8%	18.7%
25	Najai Hines	F	Fr	6'10"	31-0	17.9	6.5	5.5	0.6	0.8	60.2%	—	0.0	69.0%	20.1%
13	Trey Parker	G	So	6'0"	32-0	15.5	4.3	2.8	1.5	1.1	39.2%	20.5%	1.4	80.0%	22.7%
7	Josh Rivera	F	Sr	6'6"	30-0	11.7	3.3	2.0	0.5	0.4	50.0%	33.3%	0.2	53.6%	18.5%
1	Jacob Dar	G	Sr	6'7"	30-0	10.4	3.3	2.0	0.3	0.3	51.3%	19.0%	0.7	76.9%	19.1%
54	Godswill Erheriene	C	So	6'9"	10-0	4.5	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.5	60.0%	—	0.0	66.7%	15.0%
15	Jahseem Felton	G	So	6'5"	3-0	14.0	1.7	1.3	0.3	0.3	12.5%	0.0%	1.3	75.0%	16.2%
35	Assane Mbaye	C	So	7'2"	4-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	15.2%
41	David Gabriel	G	Sr	6'1"	3-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	41.4%
9	Patrick Suemnick	F	Sr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Seton Hall

Against the spread

Season

19-14

Home

6-11

Road

9-3

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +0.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-20-1

Home

5-11-1

Road

5-7

Last 10

4-5-1

avg vs total −3.0

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 13	#13St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 68–78	+8.0	L−2.0	136.5	O146	102.3	117.3	66.5
Mar 12	CreightonAdjEM #92	N	W 72–61	−3.0	W+8.0	135.5	U133	104.4	88.5	68.9
Mar 6	#18St John'sAdjEM #16	H	L 65–72	+5.0	L−2.0	137.0	P137	101.3	112.3	64.1
Mar 3	XavierAdjEM #129	A	W 77–68	−2.0	W+7.0	144.5	O145	121.4	107.2	63.4
Feb 28	#6UConnAdjEM #10	A	L 67–71	+13.0	W+9.0	130.0	O138	106.3	112.7	63.0
Feb 21	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	H	W 51–47	−5.5	L−1.5	136.0	U98	80.8	74.4	63.1
Feb 18	DePaulAdjEM #113	H	L 57–69	−7.0	L−19.0	129.0	U126	88.0	106.6	64.7
Feb 15	ButlerAdjEM #87	A	W 63–56	−4.0	W+3.0	138.5	U119	94.1	83.6	67.0
Feb 11	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	H	W 87–80	−5.0	W+2.0	150.5	O167	127.1	116.8	68.5
Feb 7	CreightonAdjEM #92	A	L 68–69	+2.5	W+1.5	138.5	U137	102.0	103.5	66.7

Alabama

Against the spread

Season

16-19

Home

6-9

Road

5-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +2.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

18-17

Home

7-8

Road

7-3

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +2.0

Under 2 straightOver in 5 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 27	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 77–90	+9.5	L−3.5	173.0	U167	108.3	126.6	71.1
Mar 22	#5Texas TechAdjEM #21	N	W 90–65	−1.0	W+24.0	164.5	U155	129.9	93.8	69.3
Mar 20	#13HofstraAdjEM #69	N	W 90–70	−11.5	W+8.5	159.0	O160	129.1	100.4	69.7
Mar 13	Ole MissAdjEM #82	N	L 79–80	−12.5	L−13.5	164.5	U159	107.5	108.8	73.5
Mar 7	AuburnAdjEM #41	H	W 96–84	−6.0	W+6.0	175.0	O180	134.9	118.0	71.2
Mar 3	GeorgiaAdjEM #32	A	L 88–98	−1.5	L−11.5	180.0	O186	117.7	131.1	74.7
Feb 28	#22TennesseeAdjEM #13	A	W 71–69	+5.0	W+7.0	162.5	U140	112.7	109.5	63.0
Feb 25	Mississippi StAdjEM #144	H	W 100–75	−12.5	W+12.5	175.5	U175	131.7	98.8	75.9
Feb 21	LSUAdjEM #72	A	W 90–83	−7.5	L−0.5	172.0	O173	126.7	116.9	71.0
Feb 18	#20ArkansasAdjEM #19	H	W 117–115 2OT	−4.0	L−2.0	181.0	O232	133.6	131.3	87.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Seton HallAlabama

Efficiency

108.3

120.7

99.8

104.9

66.9

71.9

—

Shooting

47.6%

55.2%

48.3%

57.0%

30.5%

35.8%

72.3%

76.7%

35.3%

36.0%

Ball control & glass

16.7%

13.1%

21.5%

12.8%

35.6%

32.4%

31.9%

32.8%

9.4%

8.6%

8.7%

12.6%

Style

26.8%

54.3%

49.1%

35.8%

13.1%

14.3%

51.6%

54.3%

39.5%

33.9%

Roster

3.21

2.08

6'4.2"

6'7.4"

87.4%

62.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Seton Hall

Returning minutes: 87.4%Returning production: 88.5%

Lost

Tajuan Simpkins 25.1 mpg, 9.7 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St

Added

Patrick Suemnick no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Alabama

Returning minutes: 62.0%Returning production: 60.6%

Lost

Labaron Philon Jr. 29.1 mpg, 20.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Houston Mallette 23.3 mpg, 6.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Latrell Wrightsell Jr. 21.0 mpg, 10.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Charles Bediako 3.1 mpg, 1.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 62% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.