CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceWatsco Center, Coral Gables, FL
North Alabama
Efficiency #343
2025-26: 9-21 · 4-15 conf
@
Miami
Efficiency #30
2025-26: 26-9 · 14-6 conf
Fri, Nov 13 · TBD
63.2
win 4%
Projected
83.7
win 96%
No line posted yet.
Model: MIA −20.5 · total 146.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Miami 68.7, North Alabama 66.6 → 67.0 possessions
−2.8
Miami offense vs North Alabama defense
+9.1
North Alabama offense vs Miami defense
−7.6
Projected total
146.9
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Miami offense vs North Alabama defense
+9.1
North Alabama offense vs Miami defense
+7.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Miami by 20.5
20.5
North Alabama side ◂▸ Miami side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +20.6 against +20.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Miami.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Miami is the faster team (69.2, #137 of 365) and North Alabama the slower (65.6, #313). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
146.9
model
Projected team totals
63.2 / 83.7
North Alabama / Miami
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.6#312
North Alabama
68.7#145
Miami

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageMiami
Where Miami scores: shooting
Miami shoots an effective 55.3% (#32); North Alabama allows 55.2% (#337). Expect about 55.6%, 4.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.2 points per 100 possessions.
GlassMiami
Miami owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 36.0% is worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions for Miami's offense.
AdvantageNorth Alabama
Where North Alabama struggles: shooting
North Alabama shoots an effective 48.0% (#312); Miami allows 51.7% (#198). Expect about 49.6%, 1.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversMiami
Miami protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.0% is worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions for Miami's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (North Alabama) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect North Alabama at about 35.7% of its shots from three, Miami about 35.8%.
TurnoversNorth Alabama
North Alabama turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.1% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against North Alabama's offense.
North Alabama has the ball
OffenseMiami allowsvs D1 avg
48.0% #312
51.7% #198
-2.3 pt/100
17.5% #240
18.2% #88
-1.7 pt/100
31.2% #160
25.9% #19
-1.0 pt/100
37.6% #111
29.5% #50
-0.3 pt/100
68.4% #315
—
-0.3 pt/100
North Alabama net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.6 pts/100
Miami has the ball
OffenseNorth Alabama allowsvs D1 avg
55.3% #32
55.2% #337
+6.2 pt/100
16.2% #150
14.5% #321
+2.2 pt/100
37.2% #14
32.2% #268
+3.4 pt/100
37.1% #125
30.3% #68
-0.2 pt/100
68.3% #320
—
-0.4 pt/100
Miami net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +11.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
North Alabamaoffense vsMiamidefense
Share of shots by zone
North Alabama shoots
Miami allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.8%#30259.8%#21958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.0%#24444.3%#27739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.5%#30037.3%#13838.0%
Three30.7%#32735.8%#29633.7%
Miamioffense vsNorth Alabamadefense
Share of shots by zone
Miami shoots
North Alabama allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.2%#3460.2%#23958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.6%#27553.3%#36239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.0%#5441.4%#28838.0%
Three34.9%#12735.7%#29233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
North Alabama
−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#192 of 365
Off reb %
31.2%
#160
Def reb %
67.8%
#268
Turnover %
17.5%
#240
Forced TO %
14.5%
#321
FT rate
37.6%
#111
FT allowed
30.3%
#68
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers−1.5
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed+1.3
Miami
+7.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#7 of 365
Off reb %
37.2%
#14
Def reb %
74.1%
#19
Turnover %
16.2%
#150
Forced TO %
18.2%
#88
FT rate
37.1%
#125
FT allowed
29.5%
#50
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.2
Defensive rebounding+1.5
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers+1.0
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed+1.5

Miami has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.2 (#7 of 365) to North Alabama’s −0.4 (#192).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

North Alabama2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted North Alabama's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Donte BacchusFSr6'7"30-2933.414.75.81.11.450.8%27.1%2.064.0%27.1%
34Dallas HowellFSr6'7"30-2931.98.43.61.01.146.0%30.2%6.664.5%19.0%
2Corneilous WilliamsFJr6'9"29-2932.512.29.30.81.355.1%—0.072.5%21.6%
8Kevin de KovachichGSo6'4"30-3031.211.82.22.21.847.4%33.7%3.579.2%25.2%
4Canin JeffersonGJr6'2"22-1830.112.41.82.62.047.2%29.0%4.574.7%27.6%
3Braylon PattonGFr6'0"26-1217.15.81.91.42.450.4%25.7%1.356.8%28.4%
12Cortez Graham-HowardGFr6'5"27-013.63.71.71.21.046.3%33.3%1.361.9%21.8%
25DarKaun KingFSo6'7"17-114.64.23.10.40.551.7%40.0%1.266.7%18.3%
35Jamal AlbrittonCSr6'9"28-18.31.11.90.10.456.5%—0.036.4%10.0%
5Kedar BodieGJr6'3"12-09.52.61.20.30.331.6%36.4%0.970.0%23.9%
0Tank WashingtonFJr6'7"9-19.91.21.90.60.128.9%16.7%0.70.0%14.4%
55King WalkerGFr6'6"12-04.70.70.50.20.137.5%—0.0100.0%10.8%
21Israel JenretteCSo7'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24Mitchell ChaffeeCSr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
North AlabamaMiami
Efficiency
102.5
115.9
114.6
103.2
66.6
68.7
—
—
Shooting
48.0%
55.3%
49.1%
56.7%
30.7%
34.9%
68.4%
68.3%
37.6%
37.1%
Ball control & glass
17.5%
16.2%
14.5%
18.2%
31.2%
37.2%
32.2%
25.9%
11.0%
9.7%
9.9%
10.2%
Style
33.7%
31.9%
48.1%
51.9%
9.8%
14.2%
40.5%
54.4%
22.2%
25.0%
Roster
2.88
3.04
6'5.7"
6'5.9"
—
42.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
North Alabama
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted North Alabama's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Miami
Returning minutes: 42.5%Returning production: 45.1%
Lost
  • Tre Donaldson 34.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Ernest Udeh Jr. 26.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Tru Washington 24.3 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Timotej Malovec 14.1 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Noam Dovrat 7.3 mpg, 2.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Salih Altuntas 7.1 mpg, 1.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Brent Bland from Saint Peter's · 33.1 mpg, 13.9 ppg last season
  • DeSean Goode from Robert Morris · 31.0 mpg, 15.2 ppg last season
  • Acaden Lewis from Villanova · 30.5 mpg, 12.2 ppg last season
  • Nick Dorn from Indiana · 21.8 mpg, 7.6 ppg last season
  • Somto Cyril from Georgia · 21.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
  • Robert Miller III from LSU · 18.8 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season

Returns 42% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.