CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceAlico Arena, Fort Myers, FL

FIU

Efficiency #200

2025-26: 15-17 · 8-13 conf

FGCU

Efficiency #246

2025-26: 16-18 · 10-11 conf

Fri, Nov 13 · TBD

76.2

win 42%

Projected

78.6

win 58%

No line posted yet.

Model: FGCU −2.4 · total 154.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: FGCU 68.5, FIU 71.0 → 71.2 possessions

+6.2

FGCU offense vs FIU defense

−0.7

FIU offense vs FGCU defense

+1.0

Projected total

154.7

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

FGCU offense vs FIU defense

−0.7

FIU offense vs FGCU defense

−1.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

FGCU by 2.4

2.4

FIU side ◂▸ FGCU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help FGCU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, FIU is the faster team (71.5, #33 of 365) and FGCU the slower (69.1, #142). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.7

model

Projected team totals

76.2 / 78.6

FIU / FGCU

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

71.0#16

FIU

68.5#167

FGCU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

FGCU averages 69.1 possessions per 40, FIU 71.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

DefenseFIU

FIU's shot-blocking

FIU ranks #21 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.7% of FGCU's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageFGCU

Where FGCU struggles: ball control

FGCU turns it over on 15.9% of possessions (#131); FIU forces turnovers on 20.1% of opponent possessions (#21). Expect about 18.4%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions.

GlassFGCU

FGCU owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.0% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for FGCU's offense.

DefenseFIU

FIU's ball-hawking

FIU ranks #20 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.1% of FGCU's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

ClashFIU

Style clash: 3-point volume

FIU rarely shoots threes (32.7% of its shots); FGCU lets opponents take 46.2% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

FIU has the ball

OffenseFGCU allowsvs D1 avg

50.6% #210

53.4% #280

+1.0 pt/100

17.7% #254

16.5% #183

-0.5 pt/100

33.9% #69

28.2% #73

+0.8 pt/100

38.6% #87

38.3% #268

+0.5 pt/100

69.4% #287

—

-0.3 pt/100

FIU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100

FGCU has the ball

OffenseFIU allowsvs D1 avg

52.0% #147

52.9% #264

+1.8 pt/100

15.9% #131

20.1% #21

-2.0 pt/100

31.1% #161

34.8% #335

+1.6 pt/100

29.1% #331

35.9% #209

-0.3 pt/100

72.1% #207

—

-0.0 pt/100

FGCU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

FIUoffense vsFGCUdefense

Share of shots by zone

FIU shoots

45.4

7.7

14.5

32.5

FGCU allows

39.0

5.4

10.0

45.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.7%#249	59.6%#212	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.6%#233	39.8%#188	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.6%#271	37.6%#147	38.0%
Three	34.7%#137	35.4%#275	33.7%

FGCUoffense vsFIUdefense

Share of shots by zone

FGCU shoots

36.9

4.9

19.8

38.3

FIU allows

39.0

5.4

10.0

45.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.2%#89	54.1%#41	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.0%#171	39.5%#175	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.0%#55	42.5%#317	38.0%
Three	33.2%#219	36.2%#313	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

FIU

+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#91 of 365

Off reb %

33.9%

#69

Def reb %

65.2%

#335

Turnover %

17.7%

#254

Forced TO %

20.1%

#21

FT rate

38.6%

#87

FT allowed

35.9%

#209

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.1

Defensive rebounding−1.4

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers+2.3

Foul shots drawn+0.9

Foul shots allowed−0.2

FGCU

−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#221 of 365

Off reb %

31.1%

#161

Def reb %

71.8%

#73

Turnover %

15.9%

#131

Forced TO %

16.5%

#183

FT rate

29.1%

#331

FT allowed

38.3%

#268

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding+0.8

Ball security+0.6

Forcing turnovers−0.1

Foul shots drawn−1.5

Foul shots allowed−0.8

FIU has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#91 of 365) to FGCU’s −0.9 (#221).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

FIU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Zawdie Jackson	G	Sr	6'1"	31-31	29.1	12.1	2.5	3.1	1.4	50.8%	37.7%	2.5	86.9%	21.9%
9	Eric Dibami	F	Fr	6'10"	30-30	29.0	9.3	7.4	1.4	1.6	52.7%	0.0%	0.0	52.1%	19.9%
5	Hamed Olayinka	F	Jr	6'9"	32-32	23.7	10.0	6.7	0.9	1.5	55.0%	15.4%	0.4	54.5%	24.8%
10	Julian Mackey	G	Sr	6'2"	30-9	22.7	12.4	2.4	1.8	1.4	52.1%	36.4%	5.0	72.9%	30.2%
1	Brit Harris	G	Sr	6'5"	32-0	18.7	5.6	2.5	1.6	0.8	49.7%	31.5%	3.5	64.7%	18.4%
4	Ashton Williamson	G	So	6'3"	26-25	22.7	7.7	2.3	2.6	2.0	46.0%	31.6%	3.8	81.8%	24.2%
34	Ibrahim Olajuwon	F	Jr	6'10"	32-2	14.2	4.0	3.2	0.2	0.7	55.8%	0.0%	0.0	52.3%	16.6%
6	Thiago Sucatzky	G	Fr	5'10"	32-0	13.7	3.6	1.0	2.3	1.5	46.2%	44.0%	0.8	82.6%	20.5%
25	Kennedy Brown	F	Sr	6'8"	20-0	7.3	1.6	1.6	0.3	0.4	40.0%	0.0%	0.1	44.4%	16.9%
11	Amarion Nimmers	G	Jr	6'3"	5-0	8.4	1.6	0.4	0.6	0.0	18.2%	0.0%	1.6	57.1%	16.4%
15	Renato Ruiz	G	Sr	6'1"	6-0	4.5	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.2	75.0%	—	0.0	—	8.9%
23	Aydan Clinton	F	Fr	6'6"	2-0	3.0	1.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	15.2%
7	Gvidas Gicevicius	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Jorge Santos	F	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
0	Michael Kelvin II	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

FGCU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted FGCU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Rahmir Barno	G	Jr	6'0"	34-34	31.6	11.7	2.8	5.0	2.0	48.2%	31.0%	1.7	65.3%	24.5%
20	J.R. Konieczny	F	Sr	6'7"	30-28	31.6	15.6	6.8	2.1	1.8	50.1%	32.6%	4.5	73.2%	30.0%
7	Jordan Ellerbee	G	Fr	6'2"	34-24	27.0	13.1	3.4	2.1	1.7	54.6%	35.3%	4.6	73.4%	28.3%
15	Michael Duax	F	Sr	6'5"	34-31	24.5	7.7	5.2	1.3	1.2	56.5%	21.4%	0.8	72.0%	18.6%
32	Isaiah Malone	F	Jr	6'8"	34-27	22.4	10.5	5.8	0.5	1.4	61.8%	44.0%	0.7	78.2%	24.4%
6	Rory Stewart	F	Sr	6'8"	30-7	21.6	7.1	2.9	0.8	0.4	48.3%	32.1%	5.5	64.7%	20.6%
2	Darren Williams	G	So	6'4"	34-10	18.6	6.2	1.9	1.0	0.6	50.5%	35.7%	4.1	100.0%	20.1%
21	Tristen Guillouette	C	So	6'10"	29-7	13.4	3.4	3.0	0.6	0.6	53.0%	—	0.0	63.6%	15.1%
0	Jack Reddick	G	So	6'3"	32-0	10.9	2.5	1.7	1.3	0.6	42.9%	22.4%	1.5	63.2%	17.8%
3	Gabe Tanner	F	Fr	6'4"	15-0	9.9	2.8	1.3	0.9	0.6	50.0%	28.6%	1.9	50.0%	19.4%
10	George Washington III	G	Jr	6'2"	14-2	9.0	3.1	0.6	0.4	0.7	38.9%	25.0%	2.9	100.0%	29.8%
4	Matt McCarthy	G	Fr	6'3"	13-0	2.8	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.1	42.9%	33.3%	0.5	50.0%	13.6%
31	Brandon Dwyer	G	Sr	6'3"	3-0	2.3	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	66.7%	1.0	—	23.8%
8	BB Washington	G	So	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Chase Konieczny	F	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Evan Barlow	F	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

FIU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Zawdie Jackson	G	Sr	6'1"	31-31	29.1	12.1	2.5	3.1	1.4	50.8%	37.7%	2.5	86.9%	21.9%
9	Eric Dibami	F	Fr	6'10"	30-30	29.0	9.3	7.4	1.4	1.6	52.7%	0.0%	0.0	52.1%	19.9%
5	Hamed Olayinka	F	Jr	6'9"	32-32	23.7	10.0	6.7	0.9	1.5	55.0%	15.4%	0.4	54.5%	24.8%
10	Julian Mackey	G	Sr	6'2"	30-9	22.7	12.4	2.4	1.8	1.4	52.1%	36.4%	5.0	72.9%	30.2%
1	Brit Harris	G	Sr	6'5"	32-0	18.7	5.6	2.5	1.6	0.8	49.7%	31.5%	3.5	64.7%	18.4%
4	Ashton Williamson	G	So	6'3"	26-25	22.7	7.7	2.3	2.6	2.0	46.0%	31.6%	3.8	81.8%	24.2%
34	Ibrahim Olajuwon	F	Jr	6'10"	32-2	14.2	4.0	3.2	0.2	0.7	55.8%	0.0%	0.0	52.3%	16.6%
6	Thiago Sucatzky	G	Fr	5'10"	32-0	13.7	3.6	1.0	2.3	1.5	46.2%	44.0%	0.8	82.6%	20.5%
25	Kennedy Brown	F	Sr	6'8"	20-0	7.3	1.6	1.6	0.3	0.4	40.0%	0.0%	0.1	44.4%	16.9%
11	Amarion Nimmers	G	Jr	6'3"	5-0	8.4	1.6	0.4	0.6	0.0	18.2%	0.0%	1.6	57.1%	16.4%
15	Renato Ruiz	G	Sr	6'1"	6-0	4.5	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.2	75.0%	—	0.0	—	8.9%
23	Aydan Clinton	F	Fr	6'6"	2-0	3.0	1.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	15.2%
7	Gvidas Gicevicius	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Jorge Santos	F	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
0	Michael Kelvin II	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

FIU

Against the spread

Season

16-13

Home

9-6

Road

7-6

Last 10

4-6

avg cover +0.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

6-9

Road

9-4

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −1.8

Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	Missouri StAdjEM #212	N	L 72–75	+1.0	L−2.0	152.5	U147	110.5	115.1	65.1
Mar 7	Western KYAdjEM #159	H	W 92–67	+1.0	W+26.0	160.0	U159	125.7	91.5	73.2
Mar 5	MTSUAdjEM #167	H	L 67–73	+1.0	L−5.0	153.5	U140	97.4	106.1	68.8
Feb 28	Louisiana TechAdjEM #211	A	W 84–76	+2.0	W+10.0	146.0	O160	120.7	109.2	69.6
Feb 26	Sam HoustonAdjEM #101	A	L 67–100	+6.0	L−27.0	162.0	O167	91.4	136.4	73.3
Feb 21	Missouri StAdjEM #212	H	W 70–67	−3.5	L−0.5	155.0	U137	104.2	99.7	67.2
Feb 19	LibertyAdjEM #103	A	L 89–90 OT	+10.5	W+9.5	153.5	O179	112.3	113.6	79.2
Feb 14	Louisiana TechAdjEM #211	H	W 77–64	−3.0	W+10.0	146.5	U141	113.9	94.7	67.6
Feb 12	DelawareAdjEM #302	H	L 66–68	−8.5	L−10.5	146.5	U134	98.9	101.9	66.8
Feb 7	Western KYAdjEM #159	A	L 70–80	+4.0	L−6.0	156.0	U150	102.8	117.5	68.1

FGCU

Against the spread

Season

9-22

Home

4-11

Road

3-10

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

14-17

Home

10-5

Road

4-9

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −3.4

Under 6 straightOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	N	L 63–73	+4.5	L−5.5	145.0	U136	89.9	104.2	70.0
Mar 6	LipscombAdjEM #179	N	W 77–53	+4.5	W+28.5	150.0	U130	122.2	84.1	63.0
Mar 4	North AlabamaAdjEM #343	N	W 69–58	−7.5	W+3.5	139.5	U127	110.7	93.1	62.3
Feb 28	StetsonAdjEM #322	A	L 63–78	−5.5	L−20.5	151.5	U141	93.2	115.3	67.6
Feb 26	North FloridaAdjEM #338	A	L 70–76	−7.0	L−13.0	161.0	U146	101.2	109.8	69.2
Feb 21	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	H	W 75–71 OT	+1.0	W+5.0	153.0	U146	104.4	98.8	71.9
Feb 18	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	H	W 86–84	−6.5	L−4.5	136.0	O170	130.6	127.6	65.8
Feb 14	StetsonAdjEM #322	H	W 78–76	−10.5	L−8.5	148.5	O154	114.8	111.8	68.0
Feb 11	North FloridaAdjEM #338	H	W 90–81	−12.5	L−3.5	163.5	O171	123.6	111.2	72.8
Feb 7	BellarmineAdjEM #281	A	L 65–81	−2.0	L−18.0	152.5	U146	96.5	120.3	67.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

FIUFGCU

Efficiency

107.6

107.1

108.9

110.7

71.0

68.5

—

Shooting

50.6%

52.0%

49.9%

53.3%

34.7%

33.2%

69.4%

72.1%

38.6%

29.1%

Ball control & glass

17.7%

15.9%

20.1%

16.5%

33.9%

31.1%

34.8%

28.2%

11.1%

9.2%

8.4%

8.6%

Style

32.7%

38.4%

46.6%

43.1%

16.0%

15.4%

49.9%

52.0%

32.6%

33.0%

Roster

2.84

2.83

6'5"

6'4.7"

85.1%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

FIU

Returning minutes: 85.1%Returning production: 81.4%

Lost

Corey Stephenson 30.2 mpg, 17.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Jorge Santos no D1 minutes last season
Gvidas Gicevicius no D1 minutes last season
Michael Kelvin II no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

FGCU

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted FGCU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Dec 3	2025-26	FGCU 83 – 89 FIU

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.