CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceState Farm Center, Champaign, IL
Sam Houston
Efficiency #101
2025-26: 22-12 · 14-8 conf
@
Illinois
Efficiency #4
2025-26: 28-9 · 15-6 conf
Fri, Nov 13 · TBD
70.0
win 8%
Projected
86.0
win 92%
No line posted yet.
Model: ILL −16.0 · total 156.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Illinois 67.0, Sam Houston 70.1 → 68.8 possessions
+1.0
Illinois offense vs Sam Houston defense
+9.4
Sam Houston offense vs Illinois defense
−2.7
Projected total
156.0
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Illinois offense vs Sam Houston defense
+9.4
Sam Houston offense vs Illinois defense
+2.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Illinois by 16.0
16.0
Sam Houston side ◂▸ Illinois side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 155.9 against a projected 156.0, and the margin steps add to +16.1 against +16.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Illinois.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Sam Houston is the faster team (70.6, #69 of 365) and Illinois the slower (65.7, #310). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
156.0
model
Projected team totals
70.0 / 86.0
Sam Houston / Illinois
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.1#42
Sam Houston
67.0#289
Illinois
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageSam Houston
Where Sam Houston scores: ball control
Sam Houston turns it over on 16.8% of possessions (#181); Illinois forces turnovers on 11.6% of opponent possessions (#365). Expect about 13.5%, 3.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.0 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageIllinois
Where Illinois scores: the offensive glass
Illinois rebounds 39.2% of its own misses (#3); Sam Houston lets opponents grab 30.1% of their own misses (#168). Expect about 36.4%, 6.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.7 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversIllinois
Illinois protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.2% is worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions for Illinois's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Sam Houston, Illinois's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Sam Houston at about 39.1% of its shots from three, Illinois about 49.2%.
DefenseIllinois
Illinois's shot-blocking
Illinois ranks #26 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.4% of Sam Houston's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
ClashSam Houston
Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding
Sam Houston (#25 in offensive rebounding) against Illinois (#28 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 32.5%. Historically Sam Houston's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).
Sam Houston has the ball
OffenseIllinois allowsvs D1 avg
52.5% #128
47.3% #26
-1.9 pt/100
16.8% #181
11.6% #365
+4.0 pt/100
35.9% #25
26.7% #28
+1.2 pt/100
34.4% #199
19.7% #1
-1.2 pt/100
71.6% #216
—
-0.1 pt/100
Sam Houston net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.2 pts/100
Illinois has the ball
OffenseSam Houston allowsvs D1 avg
54.7% #46
51.4% #180
+2.9 pt/100
13.1% #10
16.1% #219
+3.1 pt/100
39.2% #3
30.1% #168
+3.7 pt/100
33.2% #232
36.7% #230
+0.0 pt/100
78.0% #17
—
+0.5 pt/100
Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +10.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersSam Houstonoffense vsIllinoisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Sam Houston shoots
41.6
7.6
14.7
36.2
Illinois allows
27.0
7.0
21.9
44.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.0%#297 | 59.4%#208 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.6%#129 | 37.7%#129 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.7%#158 | 35.8%#101 | 38.0% |
| Three | 37.2%#24 | 31.3%#38 | 33.7% |
Illinoisoffense vsSam Houstondefense
Share of shots by zone
Illinois shoots
32.9
6.9
10.2
49.9
Sam Houston allows
37.8
5.9
14.9
41.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 66.5%#11 | 61.5%#285 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.2%#141 | 36.3%#97 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.1%#181 | 35.9%#105 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.5%#142 | 32.5%#89 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSam Houston
+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#138 of 365
Off reb %
35.9%
#25
Def reb %
69.9%
#168
Turnover %
16.8%
#181
Forced TO %
16.1%
#219
FT rate
34.4%
#199
FT allowed
36.7%
#230
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.8
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers−0.4
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed−0.4
Illinois
+6.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#9 of 365
Off reb %
39.2%
#3
Def reb %
73.3%
#28
Turnover %
13.1%
#10
Forced TO %
11.6%
#365
FT rate
33.2%
#232
FT allowed
19.7%
#1
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.8
Defensive rebounding+1.3
Ball security+2.5
Forcing turnovers−3.5
Foul shots drawn−0.5
Foul shots allowed+4.0
Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.7 (#9 of 365) to Sam Houston’s +1.0 (#138).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Sam Houston2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Sam Houston's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Damon Nicholas Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-34 | 27.1 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 49.2% | 35.2% | 2.1 | 82.0% | 19.3% | |
| 4 | Kashie Natt | G | Sr | 6'3" | 34-34 | 26.4 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 48.7% | 38.3% | 2.4 | 78.0% | 23.7% | |
| 55 | Jacob Walker | G | Fr | 6'1" | 34-12 | 25.8 | 11.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 50.9% | 35.8% | 3.2 | 74.8% | 26.1% | |
| 35 | Po'Boigh King | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-31 | 27.8 | 13.7 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 51.9% | 37.0% | 5.9 | 84.8% | 26.5% | |
| 8 | Veljko Ilic | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-34 | 24.3 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 59.2% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 45.0% | 26.8% | |
| 2 | Jacobe Coleman | G | Fr | 6'3" | 33-3 | 21.8 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 56.0% | 37.8% | 3.6 | 69.2% | 22.1% | |
| 5 | Justin Begg | G | So | 6'0" | 22-22 | 26.3 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 48.4% | 32.3% | 4.5 | 73.7% | 26.7% | |
| 13 | Isaiah Manning | F | So | 6'8" | 16-0 | 19.8 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 54.8% | 34.9% | 3.9 | 86.8% | 27.8% | |
| 1 | CJ Beaumont | G | Jr | 6'8" | 30-0 | 10.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 57.9% | 46.8% | 1.6 | 62.5% | 17.3% | |
| 12 | Matt Dann | F | Fr | 7'0" | 31-0 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 64.1% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 60.6% | 17.6% | |
| 10 | Jaxson Ford | F | So | 6'7" | 17-0 | 11.1 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 60.4% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 20.6% | |
| 23 | Cheikh Ndiaye | F | So | 6'10" | 1-0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 22 | Jackson Rogers | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Nathan Nguyen | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Noah Benny | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Illinois2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | David Mirkovic | F | Fr | 6'9" | 37-36 | 29.5 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 56.2% | 37.5% | 4.1 | 75.7% | 27.3% | |
| 2 | Andrej Stojakovic | G | Jr | 6'7" | 34-21 | 26.3 | 13.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 53.0% | 24.4% | 2.4 | 80.5% | 30.0% | |
| 13 | Tomislav Ivisic | C | Jr | 7'1" | 34-33 | 25.4 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 57.6% | 31.3% | 4.7 | 77.8% | 24.5% | |
| 15 | Jake Davis | F | Jr | 6'6" | 37-22 | 19.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 61.2% | 40.6% | 3.6 | 75.0% | 13.9% | |
| 44 | Zvonimir Ivisic | C | Jr | 7'2" | 37-4 | 17.2 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 59.1% | 28.0% | 2.7 | 69.2% | 20.2% | |
| 77 | Mihailo Petrovic | G | Fr | 6'3" | 18-0 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 36.1% | 20.0% | 0.6 | 83.3% | 27.7% | |
| 1 | Brandon Lee | G | Fr | 6'4" | 16-0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 93.3% | 23.7% | |
| 31 | Jason Jakstys | F | Fr | 6'10" | 9-0 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 80.0% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 9.3% | |
| 8 | Blake Fagbemi | G | Fr | 6'0" | 11-0 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 20.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 10.0% | |
| 5 | AJ Redd | G | Sr | 6'3" | 11-0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 66.7% | 32.6% | |
| 20 | Ty Rodgers | G | Jr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Sam Houston2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Sam Houston's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Damon Nicholas Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-34 | 27.1 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 49.2% | 35.2% | 2.1 | 82.0% | 19.3% | |
| 4 | Kashie Natt | G | Sr | 6'3" | 34-34 | 26.4 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 48.7% | 38.3% | 2.4 | 78.0% | 23.7% | |
| 55 | Jacob Walker | G | Fr | 6'1" | 34-12 | 25.8 | 11.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 50.9% | 35.8% | 3.2 | 74.8% | 26.1% | |
| 35 | Po'Boigh King | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-31 | 27.8 | 13.7 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 51.9% | 37.0% | 5.9 | 84.8% | 26.5% | |
| 8 | Veljko Ilic | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-34 | 24.3 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 59.2% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 45.0% | 26.8% | |
| 2 | Jacobe Coleman | G | Fr | 6'3" | 33-3 | 21.8 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 56.0% | 37.8% | 3.6 | 69.2% | 22.1% | |
| 5 | Justin Begg | G | So | 6'0" | 22-22 | 26.3 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 48.4% | 32.3% | 4.5 | 73.7% | 26.7% | |
| 13 | Isaiah Manning | F | So | 6'8" | 16-0 | 19.8 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 54.8% | 34.9% | 3.9 | 86.8% | 27.8% | |
| 1 | CJ Beaumont | G | Jr | 6'8" | 30-0 | 10.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 57.9% | 46.8% | 1.6 | 62.5% | 17.3% | |
| 12 | Matt Dann | F | Fr | 7'0" | 31-0 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 64.1% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 60.6% | 17.6% | |
| 10 | Jaxson Ford | F | So | 6'7" | 17-0 | 11.1 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 60.4% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 20.6% | |
| 23 | Cheikh Ndiaye | F | So | 6'10" | 1-0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 22 | Jackson Rogers | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Nathan Nguyen | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Noah Benny | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Sam Houston
Against the spread
Season
20-11
Home
7-4
Road
10-6
Last 10
4-6
avg cover +0.1
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
18-13
Home
6-5
Road
10-6
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +3.2
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | New Mexico | A | L 83–107 | +11.5 | L−12.5 | 163.0 | O190 | 109.2 | 140.7 | 76.0 |
| Mar 13 | Kennesaw St | N | L 73–79 | −2.0 | L−8.0 | 159.5 | U152 | 104.8 | 113.4 | 69.7 |
| Mar 11 | New Mexico St | N | W 69–61 | −4.5 | W+3.5 | 155.0 | U130 | 96.5 | 85.3 | 71.5 |
| Mar 7 | Liberty | A | L 72–79 | +4.5 | L−2.5 | 152.5 | U151 | 115.8 | 127.1 | 62.2 |
| Mar 5 | Delaware | A | L 80–83 | −7.5 | L−10.5 | 148.0 | O163 | 112.4 | 116.7 | 71.2 |
| Feb 28 | Missouri St | H | W 86–81 | −7.0 | L−2.0 | 154.5 | O167 | 127.1 | 119.8 | 67.6 |
| Feb 26 | FIU | H | W 100–67 | −6.0 | W+27.0 | 162.0 | O167 | 136.4 | 91.4 | 73.3 |
| Feb 21 | Jax State | H | W 82–78 | −7.5 | L−3.5 | 148.5 | O160 | 121.6 | 115.7 | 67.4 |
| Feb 18 | MTSU | H | W 78–70 | −4.0 | W+4.0 | 151.5 | U148 | 112.0 | 100.5 | 69.6 |
| Feb 14 | Kennesaw St | A | W 83–79 | +1.0 | W+5.0 | 163.0 | U162 | 125.4 | 119.3 | 66.2 |
Illinois
Against the spread
Season
19-15-2
Home
7-7-2
Road
6-4
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −0.4
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
14-22
Home
5-11
Road
7-3
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +2.1
Under 4 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4 | #2UConn | N | L 62–71 | −1.5 | L−10.5 | 139.0 | U133 | 97.6 | 111.8 | 63.5 |
| Mar 28 | #9Iowa | N | W 71–59 | −7.0 | W+5.0 | 138.5 | U130 | 129.5 | 107.6 | 54.8 |
| Mar 26 | #2Houston | N | W 65–55 | +2.5 | W+12.5 | 139.5 | U120 | 111.2 | 94.1 | 58.5 |
| Mar 21 | #11VCU | N | W 76–55 | −12.0 | W+9.0 | 150.5 | U131 | 115.2 | 83.4 | 66.0 |
| Mar 19 | #14Penn | N | W 105–70 | −25.5 | W+9.5 | 151.0 | O175 | 154.5 | 103.0 | 68.0 |
| Mar 13 | #23Wisconsin | N | L 88–91 OT | −8.0 | L−11.0 | 157.0 | O179 | 117.0 | 121.0 | 75.2 |
| Mar 8 | Maryland | A | W 78–72 | −14.0 | L−8.0 | 145.0 | O150 | 127.4 | 117.6 | 61.2 |
| Mar 3 | Oregon | H | W 80–54 | −17.5 | W+8.5 | 147.0 | U134 | 116.9 | 78.9 | 68.5 |
| Feb 27 | #3Michigan | H | L 70–84 | +2.0 | L−12.0 | 159.5 | U154 | 105.4 | 126.5 | 66.4 |
| Feb 21 | UCLA | A | L 94–95 OT | −6.0 | L−7.0 | 147.0 | O189 | 129.0 | 130.4 | 72.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSam HoustonIllinois
Efficiency
111.9
122.5
108.1
101.2
70.1
67.0
—
—
Shooting
52.5%
54.7%
50.6%
57.5%
37.2%
34.5%
71.6%
78.0%
34.4%
33.2%
Ball control & glass
16.8%
13.1%
16.1%
11.6%
35.9%
39.2%
30.1%
26.7%
9.2%
8.2%
8.4%
8.2%
Style
35.8%
49.7%
44.2%
39.7%
17.1%
6.8%
52.6%
50.0%
32.2%
29.2%
Roster
2.80
2.40
6'4.7"
6'9.3"
—
60.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSam Houston
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Sam Houston's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Illinois
Returning minutes: 60.1%Returning production: 60.0%
Lost
- Keaton Wagler 34.0 mpg, 17.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kylan Boswell 24.4 mpg, 9.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ben Humrichous 22.5 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Ty Rodgers no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 60% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.