Ohio Bobcats vs Purdue Boilermakers basketball preview & prediction

Fri, Nov 13 · 7:00 PM ET · Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN

Non-conferenceB1G+Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
Ohio
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #168
@
Purdue
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #28
Fri, Nov 13 · 7:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Ohio is the faster team (70.9, #178 of 365) and Purdue the slower (63.3, #342). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.5
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.9#104
Ohio
66.2#361
Purdue

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup
From the four factors
Purdue has the ball+1.9
Ohio has the ball+6.2
Purdue has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.0% #117 · OHIO forces 13.4% #304 · ~9 turnovers+3.6
✗Few second chancesOR% 28.9% #232 · OHIO allows 20.5% #16−3.0
✓Gets to the lineFTR 43.0% #104 · OHIO allows 46.5% #276 · FT 81.7% #36+1.4
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 51.5% #161 · OHIO allows 48.7% #144−0.1
Ohio has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 59.8% #38 · PUR allows 50.9% #186+5.6
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 19.7% #240 · PUR forces 13.6% #297 · ~11 turnovers+1.7
✗Few second chancesOR% 32.8% #155 · PUR allows 22.9% #40−1.4
✓Gets to the lineFTR 38.4% #159 · PUR allows 35.3% #169 · FT 74.4% #114+0.2

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot
Ohiooffense vsPurduedefense
Share of shots by zone
Ohio shoots
Purdue allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.8%#13772.7%#32658.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)20.0%#27540.0%#19338.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.0%#11751.4%#30834.7%
Three43.1%#3326.5%#7532.5%
Purdueoffense vsOhiodefense
Share of shots by zone
Purdue shoots
Ohio allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.5%#13167.4%#27958.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)73.7%#2330.0%#11138.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)45.7%#8241.2%#23034.7%
Three26.5%#27125.0%#4732.5%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line
Ohio
−2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#212 of 365
Off reb %
32.8%
#155
Def reb %
79.5%
#16
Turnover %
19.7%
#240
Forced TO %
13.4%
#304
FT rate
38.4%
#159
FT allowed
46.5%
#276
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding+3.7
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers−3.3
Foul shots drawn+0.3
Foul shots allowed−2.2
Purdue
+2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#138 of 365
Off reb %
28.9%
#232
Def reb %
77.1%
#40
Turnover %
16.0%
#117
Forced TO %
13.6%
#297
FT rate
43.0%
#104
FT allowed
35.3%
#169
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding+2.9
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers−3.2
Foul shots drawn+1.5
Foul shots allowed+0.7

Purdue has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.6 (#138 of 365) to Ohio’s −2.2 (#212).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not
Ohio2026-27 numbers · last game: NC A&T, Nov 7
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGMin/40, last 8Last 3 vs beforeStatusPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%Usage
13FFr6'8"2-235.535—Started last10.012.04.03.056.7%60.0%2.575.0%18.4%
3GSr6'2"2-235.533—Started last15.05.06.54.573.1%100.0%1.573.3%23.4%
1FSr6'7"2-231.026—Started last14.05.51.02.570.6%0.0%0.566.7%22.9%
10GSr6'7"2-229.031—Started last11.54.52.50.545.7%27.3%5.5100.0%24.5%
14GJr6'1"2-227.525—Started last13.51.02.50.563.2%42.1%9.560.0%23.2%
12GSr6'1"2-013.012—Bench2.02.00.50.025.0%25.0%2.050.0%15.2%
24GSr6'4"2-09.010—Bench5.50.50.00.091.7%60.0%2.5—19.0%
4GFr6'5"2-08.012—Bench10.02.01.01.0108.3%100.0%0.5100.0%40.1%
17FSo6'9"2-08.09—Bench0.52.50.01.00.0%0.0%0.550.0%28.3%
5FSo6'7"1-07.07—Bench2.02.00.01.050.0%0.0%1.0—24.2%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home
OhioPurdue
Efficiency
107.7
118.8
107.9
101.8
71.9
66.2
-4.8
11.3
Shooting
59.8%
51.5%
55.7%
59.8%
43.1%
26.5%
74.4%
81.7%
38.4%
43.0%
Ball control & glass
19.7%
16.0%
13.4%
13.6%
32.8%
28.9%
20.5%
22.9%
12.0%
7.8%
8.2%
6.2%
Style
45.5%
41.2%
38.6%
37.7%
10.8%
6.6%
64.3%
67.1%
20.8%
27.4%
Roster
3.10
2.59
6'4.9"
6'6.2"
34.9%
40.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Ohio
Returning minutes: 38.6%Returning production: 47.2%
Lost
  • Aidan Hadaway 31.8 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to Green Bay
  • Ajay Sheldon 30.8 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • JJ Kelly 25.8 mpg, 8.3 ppg · transferred to UTSA
  • Jalen Breath 11.8 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Dior Conners 11.2 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Elijah Elliott 8.7 mpg, 1.7 ppg · transferred to North Florida
Added
  • Kyler D'Augustino from IU Indy · 30.3 mpg, 17.3 ppg last season
  • Kolton Mitchell from Idaho · 27.9 mpg, 12.6 ppg last season
  • Christian Trudic no D1 minutes last season
  • Ché Brogan no D1 minutes last season
  • Jordie Bowens no D1 minutes last season
  • Dusan Makitan no D1 minutes last season

Returns 39% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Purdue
Returning minutes: 41.2%Returning production: 31.7%
Lost
  • Braden Smith 34.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Fletcher Loyer 29.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Trey Kaufman-Renn 26.7 mpg, 13.4 ppg · transferred to Kansas
  • Oscar Cluff 24.7 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Liam Murphy 2.3 mpg, 0.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Aaron Fine 0.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Added
  • Raleigh Burgess no D1 minutes last season
  • Rivers Knight no D1 minutes last season
  • Caden Pierce no D1 minutes last season
  • Jacob Webber no D1 minutes last season
  • Luke Ertel no D1 minutes last season
  • Antione West Jr no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 41% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Fri, Nov 13

← Thu, Nov 12 · Sat, Nov 14 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.