CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceWelsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL

DePaul

Efficiency #113

2025-26: 16-16 · 8-13 conf

Northwestern

Efficiency #78

2025-26: 15-19 · 7-16 conf

Fri, Nov 13 · TBD

67.0

win 30%

Projected

73.1

win 70%

No line posted yet.

Model: NU −6.1 · total 140.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Northwestern 66.9, DePaul 67.7 → 66.2 possessions

−4.5

Northwestern offense vs DePaul defense

−0.7

DePaul offense vs Northwestern defense

−3.0

Projected total

140.1

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Northwestern offense vs DePaul defense

−0.7

DePaul offense vs Northwestern defense

+3.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Northwestern by 6.1

6.1

DePaul side ◂▸ Northwestern side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 140.0 against a projected 140.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Northwestern.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, DePaul is the faster team (67.7, #213 of 365) and Northwestern the slower (65.3, #322). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

140.1

model

Projected team totals

67.0 / 73.1

DePaul / Northwestern

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.7#236

DePaul

66.9#299

Northwestern

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashDePaul

Style match: ball movement

DePaul assists on 60.9% of its made baskets; Northwestern allows assists on 63.8% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 65.3% — both habits push the same way.

ClashNorthwestern

Style match: ball movement

Northwestern assists on 65.8% of its made baskets; DePaul allows assists on 57.5% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 64.4% — both habits push the same way.

Pace

Half-court grind

Northwestern averages 65.3 possessions per 40, DePaul 67.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashNorthwestern

Style match: 3-point volume

Northwestern rarely shoots threes (34.0% of its shots); DePaul runs teams off the line (33.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.5% — both habits push the same way.

DePaul has the ball

OffenseNorthwestern allowsvs D1 avg

49.8% #243

51.0% #157

-1.4 pt/100

17.8% #256

17.5% #119

-1.3 pt/100

30.0% #197

34.7% #332

+1.1 pt/100

35.3% #169

34.8% #172

-0.0 pt/100

69.2% #295

—

-0.3 pt/100

DePaul net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.9 pts/100

Northwestern has the ball

OffenseDePaul allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #159

49.3% #77

-1.1 pt/100

13.0% #7

18.6% #67

+1.2 pt/100

28.1% #260

31.1% #205

-0.8 pt/100

33.9% #213

37.8% #257

+0.1 pt/100

75.1% #80

—

+0.2 pt/100

Northwestern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

DePauloffense vsNorthwesterndefense

Share of shots by zone

DePaul shoots

38.2

5.5

17.5

38.8

Northwestern allows

37.9

6.1

16.5

39.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.4%#287	60.5%#248	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.9%#66	33.6%#38	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.4%#255	38.8%#190	38.0%
Three	32.5%#253	33.4%#145	33.7%

Northwesternoffense vsDePauldefense

Share of shots by zone

Northwestern shoots

35.0

7.2

23.9

34.0

DePaul allows

39.4

6.5

21.2

33.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.4%#47	53.6%#34	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.6%#233	35.3%#65	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.6%#66	36.2%#117	38.0%
Three	33.0%#232	35.4%#274	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

DePaul

−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#188 of 365

Off reb %

30.0%

#197

Def reb %

68.9%

#205

Turnover %

17.8%

#256

Forced TO %

18.6%

#67

FT rate

35.3%

#169

FT allowed

37.8%

#257

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn+0.1

Foul shots allowed−0.7

Northwestern

+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#140 of 365

Off reb %

28.1%

#260

Def reb %

65.3%

#332

Turnover %

13.0%

Forced TO %

17.5%

#119

FT rate

33.9%

#213

FT allowed

34.8%

#172

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding−1.3

Ball security+2.6

Forcing turnovers+0.6

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed+0.1

Northwestern has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.9 (#140 of 365) to DePaul’s −0.2 (#188).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

DePaul2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted DePaul's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Layden Blocker	G	Jr	6'2"	32-29	29.1	11.1	2.5	3.5	2.2	41.7%	31.8%	3.4	82.8%	27.3%
11	CJ Gunn	G	Sr	6'7"	32-23	27.7	13.1	3.7	1.9	1.9	47.3%	32.7%	5.3	72.5%	32.1%
5	RJ Smith	G	Jr	6'3"	32-23	27.7	6.6	2.4	2.4	1.1	46.1%	30.8%	3.8	75.0%	16.7%
35	NJ Benson	F	Sr	6'8"	32-31	25.9	11.7	7.6	1.2	1.3	63.6%	0.0%	0.1	50.5%	24.6%
0	Brandon Maclin	G	Sr	6'3"	29-16	27.6	10.5	4.5	2.8	1.8	48.5%	30.6%	2.5	69.5%	25.2%
22	Kruz McClure	G	Fr	6'6"	28-4	18.6	5.0	1.4	1.5	1.4	41.6%	29.9%	2.8	74.1%	20.7%
1	Kaleb Banks	F	Sr	6'8"	31-11	16.2	5.6	2.5	0.4	0.6	54.0%	35.5%	2.0	74.1%	19.5%
21	Theo Pierre-Justin	F	So	6'10"	30-22	15.5	4.0	2.6	0.9	0.5	54.5%	39.7%	2.1	61.1%	15.7%
15	Fabian Flores	C	Fr	7'2"	28-1	10.5	2.9	2.9	0.3	0.3	68.1%	—	0.0	64.0%	13.8%
10	Ilija Milijasevic	G	Jr	6'2"	15-0	7.9	2.2	0.5	0.5	0.3	53.6%	35.7%	1.9	75.0%	16.4%
32	Jeremy Lorenz	F	Jr	6'8"	9-0	10.4	2.2	1.8	1.0	0.9	60.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	15.4%
14	Khaman Maker	C	So	7'1"	12-0	5.5	1.3	1.2	0.0	0.3	50.0%	—	0.0	25.0%	16.1%
3	Nate Kasher	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	1.8	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	18.7%
52	Amsal Delalic	G	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Isaiah Medina	F	Fr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Jonas Johnson	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Northwestern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Jayden Reid	G	Jr	5'10"	34-28	25.8	10.1	1.4	5.0	1.9	44.5%	31.7%	3.0	82.0%	28.3%
8	Tre Singleton	F	Fr	6'8"	34-31	25.0	7.6	4.8	1.5	1.0	50.0%	16.7%	1.6	73.8%	19.5%
44	Angelo Ciaravino	G	So	6'6"	33-18	22.0	6.3	3.9	1.2	0.4	54.6%	25.6%	1.3	58.3%	17.0%
3	Jake West	G	Fr	6'3"	33-17	21.8	5.3	0.8	2.8	1.0	49.4%	36.4%	2.3	77.4%	17.4%
22	Arrinten Page	F	Jr	6'11"	29-16	22.8	10.2	4.5	1.8	1.2	57.2%	25.0%	1.5	65.6%	26.2%
11	Jordan Clayton	G	Jr	6'2"	31-10	18.3	3.9	1.7	1.4	0.5	57.7%	41.0%	2.5	53.3%	12.9%
1	Tyler Kropp	F	Fr	6'9"	31-10	11.9	3.1	2.1	0.3	0.3	46.1%	27.3%	0.4	92.3%	16.6%
10	Max Green	G	So	6'6"	23-4	14.8	4.3	1.8	1.0	0.3	48.5%	33.8%	3.0	60.0%	19.5%
20	Justin Mullins	G	Sr	6'6"	24-3	13.5	3.2	1.6	0.8	0.6	53.2%	32.3%	1.3	50.0%	16.4%
24	K.J. Windham	G	So	6'3"	13-0	13.3	3.8	1.5	1.2	0.2	45.7%	33.3%	2.8	100.0%	17.8%
13	Phoenix Gill	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	3.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.2	12.5%	0.0%	0.4	75.0%	18.6%
54	Gus Hurlburt	F	Jr	6'9"	2-0	2.0	2.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	26.4%
43	Blake Smith	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

DePaul2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted DePaul's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Layden Blocker	G	Jr	6'2"	32-29	29.1	11.1	2.5	3.5	2.2	41.7%	31.8%	3.4	82.8%	27.3%
11	CJ Gunn	G	Sr	6'7"	32-23	27.7	13.1	3.7	1.9	1.9	47.3%	32.7%	5.3	72.5%	32.1%
5	RJ Smith	G	Jr	6'3"	32-23	27.7	6.6	2.4	2.4	1.1	46.1%	30.8%	3.8	75.0%	16.7%
35	NJ Benson	F	Sr	6'8"	32-31	25.9	11.7	7.6	1.2	1.3	63.6%	0.0%	0.1	50.5%	24.6%
0	Brandon Maclin	G	Sr	6'3"	29-16	27.6	10.5	4.5	2.8	1.8	48.5%	30.6%	2.5	69.5%	25.2%
22	Kruz McClure	G	Fr	6'6"	28-4	18.6	5.0	1.4	1.5	1.4	41.6%	29.9%	2.8	74.1%	20.7%
1	Kaleb Banks	F	Sr	6'8"	31-11	16.2	5.6	2.5	0.4	0.6	54.0%	35.5%	2.0	74.1%	19.5%
21	Theo Pierre-Justin	F	So	6'10"	30-22	15.5	4.0	2.6	0.9	0.5	54.5%	39.7%	2.1	61.1%	15.7%
15	Fabian Flores	C	Fr	7'2"	28-1	10.5	2.9	2.9	0.3	0.3	68.1%	—	0.0	64.0%	13.8%
10	Ilija Milijasevic	G	Jr	6'2"	15-0	7.9	2.2	0.5	0.5	0.3	53.6%	35.7%	1.9	75.0%	16.4%
32	Jeremy Lorenz	F	Jr	6'8"	9-0	10.4	2.2	1.8	1.0	0.9	60.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	15.4%
14	Khaman Maker	C	So	7'1"	12-0	5.5	1.3	1.2	0.0	0.3	50.0%	—	0.0	25.0%	16.1%
3	Nate Kasher	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	1.8	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	18.7%
52	Amsal Delalic	G	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Isaiah Medina	F	Fr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Jonas Johnson	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

DePaul

Against the spread

Season

18-13-1

Home

9-9

Road

8-2-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −2.2

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-20-1

Home

7-10-1

Road

3-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −5.8

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	N	L 56–63	−5.0	L−12.0	130.0	U119	89.0	100.2	62.9
Mar 7	ButlerAdjEM #87	H	L 71–81	−4.0	L−14.0	142.5	O152	96.8	110.4	73.4
Mar 4	VillanovaAdjEM #40	H	L 57–76	+2.0	L−17.0	136.5	U133	81.1	108.2	70.3
Mar 1	MarquetteAdjEM #100	A	W 62–51	+4.5	W+15.5	139.5	U113	98.0	80.6	63.2
Feb 25	CreightonAdjEM #92	A	W 72–71	+4.5	W+5.5	142.5	O143	110.8	109.3	65.0
Feb 21	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	H	L 68–71	−3.0	L−6.0	152.5	U139	101.2	105.7	67.2
Feb 18	Seton HallAdjEM #56	A	W 69–57	+7.0	W+19.0	129.0	U126	106.6	88.0	64.7
Feb 11	CreightonAdjEM #92	H	W 72–71	+1.0	W+2.0	141.0	O143	116.4	114.8	61.9
Feb 7	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	A	L 72–90	+5.0	L−13.0	153.5	O162	100.6	125.8	71.5
Feb 3	#22St John'sAdjEM #16	H	L 56–68	+9.5	L−2.5	145.0	U124	85.3	103.6	65.6

Northwestern

Against the spread

Season

18-16

Home

7-10

Road

6-5

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.8

Covered 5 straightCovered 6 of 7 as an underdogCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-19

Home

8-9

Road

4-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.5

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	#18PurdueAdjEM #9	N	L 68–81	+13.5	W+0.5	140.0	O149	114.4	136.3	59.4
Mar 11	IndianaAdjEM #45	N	W 74–61	+6.0	W+19.0	142.0	U135	121.9	100.5	60.7
Mar 10	Penn StateAdjEM #194	N	W 76–66	−5.0	W+5.0	144.5	U142	119.6	103.9	63.6
Mar 7	MinnesotaAdjEM #94	A	L 66–67	+4.0	W+3.0	133.5	U133	119.7	121.5	55.1
Mar 4	#15PurdueAdjEM #9	H	L 66–70	+10.5	W+6.5	145.5	U136	114.9	121.8	57.5
Feb 28	OregonAdjEM #143	H	W 63–62	−3.5	L−2.5	142.5	U125	98.9	97.3	63.7
Feb 24	IndianaAdjEM #45	A	W 72–68	+8.5	W+12.5	146.0	U140	117.8	111.3	61.1
Feb 18	MarylandAdjEM #198	H	W 78–74	−8.0	L−4.0	142.5	O152	118.3	112.2	65.9
Feb 14	#7NebraskaAdjEM #17	A	L 49–68	+13.5	L−5.5	145.5	U117	76.0	105.5	64.5
Feb 11	#2MichiganAdjEM #1	H	L 75–87	+15.0	W+3.0	153.5	O162	100.4	116.4	74.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

DePaulNorthwestern

Efficiency

106.3

112.5

103.5

106.2

67.7

66.9

—

Shooting

49.8%

51.7%

50.5%

52.9%

32.5%

33.0%

69.2%

75.1%

35.3%

33.9%

Ball control & glass

17.8%

13.0%

18.6%

17.5%

30.0%

28.1%

31.1%

34.7%

10.8%

7.3%

10.7%

6.4%

Style

39.0%

34.0%

42.9%

44.0%

13.1%

15.6%

60.9%

65.8%

35.0%

31.7%

Roster

3.13

2.14

6'5.9"

6'4.9"

—

82.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

DePaul

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted DePaul's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Northwestern

Returning minutes: 82.8%Returning production: 74.0%

Lost

Nick Martinelli 34.6 mpg, 22.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Blake Smith no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Fri, Nov 14	2025-26	Northwestern 81 – 79 DePaul

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.