CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceXFINITY Center, College Park, MD

Virginia

Efficiency #15

2025-26: 30-6 · 17-4 conf

Maryland

Efficiency #198

2025-26: 12-21 · 5-17 conf

Fri, Nov 13 · TBD

76.6

win 75%

Projected

68.8

win 25%

No line posted yet.

Model: UVA −7.8 · total 145.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Maryland 67.7, Virginia 67.1 → 66.5 possessions

−4.0

Maryland offense vs Virginia defense

−5.3

Virginia offense vs Maryland defense

+6.4

Projected total

145.3

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Maryland offense vs Virginia defense

−5.3

Virginia offense vs Maryland defense

−6.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Virginia by 7.8

7.8

Virginia side ◂▸ Maryland side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −7.9 against −7.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Maryland.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Maryland is the faster team (66.7, #257 of 365) and Virginia the slower (66.4, #276). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.3

model

Projected team totals

76.6 / 68.8

Virginia / Maryland

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.1#278

Virginia

67.7#239

Maryland

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMaryland

Where Maryland struggles: shooting

Maryland shoots an effective 48.1% (#311); Virginia allows 45.7% (#8). Expect about 46.6%, 4.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.6 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseVirginia

Virginia's shot-blocking

Virginia ranks #2 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 15.8% of Maryland's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageVirginia

Where Virginia scores: shooting

Virginia shoots an effective 54.6% (#49); Maryland allows 54.4% (#312). Expect about 54.8%, 3.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.0 points per 100 possessions.

ClashVirginia

Style match: ball movement

Virginia assists on 58.3% of its made baskets; Maryland allows assists on 61.2% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 61.9% — both habits push the same way.

GlassVirginia

Virginia owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.0% is worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions for Virginia's offense.

Pace

Half-court grind

Maryland averages 66.7 possessions per 40, Virginia 66.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Virginia has the ball

OffenseMaryland allowsvs D1 avg

54.6% #49

54.4% #312

+5.0 pt/100

16.0% #140

14.9% #296

+2.0 pt/100

37.9% #9

29.1% #111

+2.8 pt/100

32.3% #253

35.8% #205

-0.1 pt/100

72.8% #177

—

+0.0 pt/100

Virginia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.7 pts/100

Maryland has the ball

OffenseVirginia allowsvs D1 avg

48.1% #311

45.7% #8

-6.6 pt/100

18.6% #304

15.4% #255

-0.2 pt/100

33.8% #73

29.2% #120

+1.1 pt/100

36.4% #142

32.9% #129

-0.1 pt/100

72.2% #202

—

-0.0 pt/100

Maryland net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Virginiaoffense vsMarylanddefense

Share of shots by zone

Virginia shoots

36.0

6.7

10.5

46.7

Maryland allows

37.3

4.4

14.6

43.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#105	59.6%#211	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.3%#59	31.9%#22	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.6%#164	41.3%#283	38.0%
Three	36.2%#48	36.3%#317	33.7%

Marylandoffense vsVirginiadefense

Share of shots by zone

Maryland shoots

32.6

5.0

15.9

46.5

Virginia allows

34.2

7.9

21.0

36.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.8%#279	50.9%#7	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.1%#328	38.6%#150	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.6%#129	35.7%#97	38.0%
Three	31.7%#293	31.6%#46	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Virginia

+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#79 of 365

Off reb %

37.9%

Def reb %

70.8%

#120

Turnover %

16.0%

#140

Forced TO %

15.4%

#255

FT rate

32.3%

#253

FT allowed

32.9%

#129

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.4

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers−0.9

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Maryland

−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#204 of 365

Off reb %

33.8%

#73

Def reb %

70.9%

#111

Turnover %

18.6%

#304

Forced TO %

14.9%

#296

FT rate

36.4%

#142

FT allowed

35.8%

#205

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.1

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn+0.3

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Virginia has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.5 (#79 of 365) to Maryland’s −0.6 (#204).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Virginia2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
30	Dallin Hall	G	Sr	6'4"	36-36	28.4	5.9	3.6	4.4	1.3	50.9%	32.0%	2.9	81.3%	14.3%
28	Thijs De Ridder	F	Fr	6'9"	36-36	27.7	15.6	6.2	1.6	1.8	55.9%	35.7%	3.1	70.9%	32.5%
5	Sam Lewis	G	Jr	6'7"	36-35	25.6	10.6	3.6	1.4	1.3	55.9%	40.3%	4.3	75.0%	24.7%
2	Chance Mallory	G	Fr	5'10"	36-0	24.1	9.3	3.7	3.4	1.1	50.6%	34.5%	3.1	77.5%	23.3%
17	Johann Grunloh	C	Fr	7'0"	36-36	21.0	7.1	5.2	0.6	0.8	59.0%	35.0%	1.7	55.7%	19.5%
11	Devin Tillis	F	Sr	6'7"	31-1	15.9	4.1	2.7	1.5	0.8	50.5%	37.5%	2.1	78.3%	17.7%
12	Elijah Gertrude	G	So	6'4"	17-0	6.2	1.7	0.8	0.6	0.2	45.2%	14.3%	0.8	33.3%	20.6%
7	Martin Carrere	G	Fr	6'9"	16-0	4.0	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.4	42.3%	16.7%	0.4	50.0%	19.3%
35	Carter Lang	F	So	6'9"	12-0	2.2	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.0	35.7%	33.3%	0.3	0.0%	18.1%
13	Desmond Roberts	G	So	6'4"	12-0	1.5	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	9.9%
22	Owen Odom	G	Fr	6'1"	11-0	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.1	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	25.2%
21	Silas Barksdale	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Maryland2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
13	Elijah Saunders	F	Sr	6'8"	33-32	30.7	9.0	4.4	0.9	1.1	56.4%	41.1%	4.3	80.0%	17.2%
7	Andre Mills	G	Fr	6'4"	33-25	26.7	12.2	4.1	1.6	1.7	49.2%	34.6%	4.8	76.7%	29.7%
8	David Coit	G	Sr	5'11"	33-16	26.7	13.5	1.8	2.8	1.8	51.0%	32.4%	6.6	85.6%	31.4%
1	Darius Adams	G	Fr	6'5"	33-28	25.6	10.8	3.4	1.6	2.0	40.6%	24.8%	4.0	71.4%	31.5%
12	Isaiah Watts	G	Jr	6'3"	32-8	17.0	4.3	1.8	0.7	0.8	44.5%	29.3%	3.1	64.3%	18.8%
45	Collin Metcalf	C	Sr	6'9"	31-13	13.5	1.3	3.2	0.3	0.5	54.5%	0.0%	0.0	38.5%	8.2%
2	Myles Rice	G	Jr	6'3"	17-4	16.5	5.6	2.1	1.3	1.4	43.3%	34.4%	1.9	92.6%	24.4%
21	Pharrel Payne	F	Sr	6'9"	10-10	26.8	17.5	7.2	1.4	2.7	62.4%	—	0.0	71.9%	32.8%
11	George Turkson Jr.	G	Fr	6'7"	23-5	11.4	1.3	2.0	0.2	0.3	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	10.3%
18	Guillermo Del Pino	G	Fr	6'5"	23-2	9.3	1.6	0.7	0.5	0.6	37.0%	27.6%	1.3	50.0%	17.5%
24	Aleks Alston	F	Fr	6'10"	25-0	8.4	1.4	1.7	0.3	0.4	40.3%	20.8%	1.0	55.6%	13.8%
15	Jaziah Harper	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
30	Lukas Sotell	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
25	Nick Blake	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
4	Rakease Passmore	G	So	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Virginia2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
30	Dallin Hall	G	Sr	6'4"	36-36	28.4	5.9	3.6	4.4	1.3	50.9%	32.0%	2.9	81.3%	14.3%
28	Thijs De Ridder	F	Fr	6'9"	36-36	27.7	15.6	6.2	1.6	1.8	55.9%	35.7%	3.1	70.9%	32.5%
5	Sam Lewis	G	Jr	6'7"	36-35	25.6	10.6	3.6	1.4	1.3	55.9%	40.3%	4.3	75.0%	24.7%
2	Chance Mallory	G	Fr	5'10"	36-0	24.1	9.3	3.7	3.4	1.1	50.6%	34.5%	3.1	77.5%	23.3%
17	Johann Grunloh	C	Fr	7'0"	36-36	21.0	7.1	5.2	0.6	0.8	59.0%	35.0%	1.7	55.7%	19.5%
11	Devin Tillis	F	Sr	6'7"	31-1	15.9	4.1	2.7	1.5	0.8	50.5%	37.5%	2.1	78.3%	17.7%
12	Elijah Gertrude	G	So	6'4"	17-0	6.2	1.7	0.8	0.6	0.2	45.2%	14.3%	0.8	33.3%	20.6%
7	Martin Carrere	G	Fr	6'9"	16-0	4.0	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.4	42.3%	16.7%	0.4	50.0%	19.3%
35	Carter Lang	F	So	6'9"	12-0	2.2	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.0	35.7%	33.3%	0.3	0.0%	18.1%
13	Desmond Roberts	G	So	6'4"	12-0	1.5	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	9.9%
22	Owen Odom	G	Fr	6'1"	11-0	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.1	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	25.2%
21	Silas Barksdale	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Virginia

Against the spread

Season

17-18-1

Home

9-8

Road

5-5

Last 10

3-6-1

avg cover −0.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 0 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-19

Home

6-11

Road

4-6

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +3.5

Over 6 straightOver in 5 of 7 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#6TennesseeAdjEM #13	N	L 72–79	+1.0	L−6.0	136.5	O151	109.8	120.5	65.5
Mar 20	#14Wright StAdjEM #119	N	W 82–73	−18.0	L−9.0	146.5	O155	126.3	112.4	64.9
Mar 14	#1DukeAdjEM #2	N	L 70–74	+6.5	W+2.5	139.5	O144	110.1	116.4	63.5
Mar 13	MiamiAdjEM #30	N	W 84–62	−3.5	W+18.5	145.0	O146	134.6	99.3	62.4
Mar 12	NC StateAdjEM #34	N	W 81–74	−7.0	P0.0	152.0	O155	118.2	108.0	68.5
Mar 7	Virginia TechAdjEM #61	H	W 76–72	−12.0	L−8.0	146.5	O148	114.6	108.5	66.3
Mar 3	Wake ForestAdjEM #76	H	W 75–70	−14.0	L−9.0	149.5	U145	110.3	102.9	68.0
Feb 28	#1DukeAdjEM #2	A	L 51–77	+10.0	L−16.0	143.0	U128	83.7	126.4	60.9
Feb 24	NC StateAdjEM #34	H	W 90–61	−6.0	W+23.0	152.0	U151	128.0	86.7	70.3
Feb 21	MiamiAdjEM #30	H	W 86–83	−7.5	L−4.5	146.5	O169	132.7	128.1	64.8

Maryland

Against the spread

Season

15-16-2

Home

6-8-1

Road

6-5-1

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +1.9

Covered 3 straightCovered 7 of 9 as an underdogCovered 4 of 5 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

18-15

Home

9-6

Road

5-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −6.5

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 9 as an underdogOver in 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	IowaAdjEM #22	N	L 64–75	+12.0	W+1.0	134.5	O139	97.4	114.1	65.7
Mar 10	OregonAdjEM #143	N	W 70–60	+4.0	W+14.0	139.0	U130	111.5	95.6	62.8
Mar 8	#11IllinoisAdjEM #4	H	L 72–78	+14.0	W+8.0	145.0	O150	117.6	127.4	61.2
Mar 4	WisconsinAdjEM #28	A	L 45–78	+14.5	L−18.5	153.5	U123	77.9	135.0	57.8
Mar 1	RutgersAdjEM #192	H	L 65–69	−5.0	L−9.0	143.5	U134	92.5	98.2	70.3
Feb 25	#12NebraskaAdjEM #17	A	L 61–74	+16.5	W+3.5	141.0	U135	95.9	116.4	63.6
Feb 21	WashingtonAdjEM #59	H	W 64–60	+3.0	W+7.0	143.5	U124	112.7	105.7	56.8
Feb 18	NorthwesternAdjEM #78	A	L 74–78	+8.0	W+4.0	142.5	O152	112.2	118.3	65.9
Feb 15	RutgersAdjEM #192	A	L 57–68	+3.0	L−8.0	142.5	U125	88.0	105.0	64.8
Feb 11	IowaAdjEM #22	H	W 77–70	+10.0	W+17.0	139.0	O147	123.8	112.6	62.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

VirginiaMaryland

Efficiency

117.4

107.9

101.2

109.1

67.1

67.7

—

Shooting

54.6%

48.1%

54.9%

48.6%

36.2%

31.7%

72.8%

72.2%

32.3%

36.4%

Ball control & glass

16.0%

18.6%

15.4%

14.9%

37.9%

33.8%

29.2%

29.1%

9.6%

9.5%

10.0%

11.6%

Style

46.7%

46.9%

40.8%

34.4%

14.1%

8.7%

58.3%

45.2%

38.2%

31.4%

Roster

2.24

2.61

6'6"

6'4.9"

72.1%

87.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Virginia

Returning minutes: 72.1%Returning production: 68.7%

Lost

Malik Thomas 22.7 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ugonna Onyenso 18.7 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jacari White 15.4 mpg, 8.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Silas Barksdale no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Maryland

Returning minutes: 87.9%Returning production: 86.1%

Lost

Solomon Washington 24.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nick Blake no D1 minutes last season
Rakease Passmore no D1 minutes last season
Lukas Sotell no D1 minutes last season
Jaziah Harper no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 20	2025-26	Maryland 72 – 80 Virginia

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.