CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCharles E. Smith Center, Washington, DC
Harvard
Efficiency #133
2025-26: 17-12 · 10-5 conf
@
G Washington
Efficiency #68
2025-26: 19-16 · 9-11 conf
Fri, Nov 13 · TBD
68.9
win 26%
Projected
76.2
win 74%
No line posted yet.
Model: GW −7.3 · total 145.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: G Washington 69.5, Harvard 65.6 → 66.7 possessions
−3.4
G Washington offense vs Harvard defense
+1.9
Harvard offense vs G Washington defense
−1.6
Projected total
145.0
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
G Washington offense vs Harvard defense
+1.9
Harvard offense vs G Washington defense
+1.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
G Washington by 7.3
7.3
Harvard side ◂▸ G Washington side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 145.1 against a projected 145.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help G Washington.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, G Washington is the faster team (69.9, #97 of 365) and Harvard the slower (63.9, #357). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.0
model
Projected team totals
68.9 / 76.2
Harvard / G Washington
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.6#354
Harvard
69.5#83
G Washington

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
G Washington averages 69.9 possessions per 40, Harvard 63.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageHarvard
Where Harvard scores: shooting
Harvard shoots an effective 53.2% (#94); G Washington allows 52.4% (#234). Expect about 52.9%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
GlassHarvard
Harvard gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.1% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Harvard's offense.
AdvantageG Washington
Where G Washington scores: shooting
G Washington shoots an effective 54.4% (#55); Harvard allows 50.4% (#122). Expect about 52.7%, 1.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.
GlassG Washington
G Washington owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.1% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for G Washington's offense.
Harvard has the ball
OffenseG Washington allowsvs D1 avg
53.2% #94
52.4% #234
+2.4 pt/100
17.4% #233
17.7% #114
-1.2 pt/100
26.8% #302
28.7% #91
-2.0 pt/100
25.7% #359
34.9% #178
-0.6 pt/100
80.8% #1
—
+0.7 pt/100
Harvard net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.7 pts/100
G Washington has the ball
OffenseHarvard allowsvs D1 avg
54.4% #55
50.4% #122
+2.0 pt/100
18.2% #282
17.1% #141
-1.2 pt/100
35.8% #26
28.2% #69
+1.7 pt/100
34.9% #184
26.6% #17
-0.6 pt/100
72.3% #194
—
-0.0 pt/100
G Washington net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Harvardoffense vsG Washingtondefense
Share of shots by zone
Harvard shoots
G Washington allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.7%#8062.2%#30358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.5%#3536.1%#9239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.8%#11834.3%#5538.0%
Three34.7%#13533.9%#17533.7%
G Washingtonoffense vsHarvarddefense
Share of shots by zone
G Washington shoots
Harvard allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.6%#13856.4%#9558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.6%#16144.9%#29539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.6%#31941.3%#28438.0%
Three35.1%#10632.6%#9433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Harvard
−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#212 of 365
Off reb %
26.8%
#302
Def reb %
71.8%
#69
Turnover %
17.4%
#233
Forced TO %
17.1%
#141
FT rate
25.7%
#359
FT allowed
26.6%
#17
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed+2.2
G Washington
+2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#93 of 365
Off reb %
35.8%
#26
Def reb %
71.3%
#91
Turnover %
18.2%
#282
Forced TO %
17.7%
#114
FT rate
34.9%
#184
FT allowed
34.9%
#178
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.8
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers+0.7
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed+0.1

G Washington has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.1 (#93 of 365) to Harvard’s −0.7 (#212).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Harvard2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Harvard's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
8Tey BarbourGSo6'4"29-2833.613.65.21.41.360.8%39.6%6.881.6%22.1%
13Chandler PiggeGSr6'5"29-2933.612.95.13.32.050.6%31.5%3.175.3%26.3%
4Robert HintonGSo6'5"29-2933.416.84.82.11.852.4%29.4%2.982.9%31.2%
15Thomas Batties IIIFJr6'7"29-2933.012.35.42.31.657.7%45.3%4.487.2%22.4%
5Ben EisendrathGSo6'2"28-2629.15.32.23.32.245.2%14.3%1.589.7%15.9%
7Austin HuntGSo6'4"14-322.86.93.61.01.158.7%37.8%2.681.8%18.6%
10Frankie ManninoGFr6'5"28-08.91.81.30.50.357.4%10.0%0.466.7%13.1%
34Ryan SullivanFFr6'9"21-07.51.32.00.20.260.0%0.0%0.030.0%11.3%
3Xavier NesbittGJr5'11"27-05.20.60.60.30.324.1%11.1%0.775.0%17.0%
0Kenan ParrishFFr7'0"18-06.22.21.20.10.445.8%33.3%0.566.7%26.6%
35Luca Ace-NasteskiFJr6'10"20-05.51.10.90.30.143.8%0.0%0.181.8%13.6%
12Dutch DowdellGSo6'6"16-03.90.90.40.10.144.1%31.3%1.0—18.3%
18Joseph QuarteyGFr6'2"7-02.90.00.10.10.10.0%0.0%0.4—18.3%
14Greg CooperGSr6'0"4-12.30.80.30.00.075.0%50.0%0.5—13.6%
24Payton PittsGJr6'2"3-01.70.00.30.00.00.0%—0.0—12.5%
41Avner DrorFFr6'9"2-02.00.00.50.00.00.0%—0.0—15.5%
11Alex TouomouFFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
HarvardG Washington
Efficiency
107.6
114.2
105.6
107.0
65.6
69.5
—
—
Shooting
53.2%
54.4%
54.0%
55.9%
34.7%
35.1%
80.8%
72.3%
25.7%
34.9%
Ball control & glass
17.4%
18.2%
17.1%
17.7%
26.8%
35.8%
28.2%
28.7%
10.2%
11.4%
7.4%
10.3%
Style
40.2%
47.0%
43.0%
42.2%
10.7%
11.7%
56.1%
55.4%
19.9%
33.7%
Roster
2.45
3.11
6'4.9"
6'4.9"
—
78.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Harvard
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Harvard's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

G Washington
Returning minutes: 78.6%Returning production: 71.0%
Lost
  • Rafael Castro 22.6 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Luke Hunger 18.1 mpg, 7.9 ppg · transferred to Boston College
  • Ty Bevins 2.2 mpg, 0.5 ppg · transferred to Rider
Added
  • Jalen Rougier-Roane no D1 minutes last season
  • Vincent Chaudhri no D1 minutes last season
  • Trey Moss no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 79% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.