South Dakota Coyotes vs Drake Bulldogs basketball preview & prediction
Fri, Nov 13 · 7:30 PM ET · Knapp Center, Des Moines, IA
Non-conferenceESPN+Knapp Center, Des Moines, IA
South Dakota
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #293
@
Drake
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #195
Fri, Nov 13 · 7:30 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 73.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, South Dakota is the faster team (80.4, #15 of 365) and Drake the slower (71.1, #170). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
73.6
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
74.0#30
South Dakota
70.2#214
Drake
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Drake has the ball+6.2
South Dakota has the ball−1.8
Drake has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 53.8% #128 · SDAK allows 62.4% #338+8.6
✗Few second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · SDAK allows 22.2% #30−1.5
✗Coughs it upTO% 22.5% #302 · SDAK forces 16.8% #214 · ~15 turnovers−1.4
✓Gets to the lineFTR 59.6% #16 · SDAK allows 36.8% #185 · FT 61.3% #299+0.4
South Dakota has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 19.9% #248 · DRKE forces 29.6% #4 · ~19 turnovers−7.4
✓Shoots it welleFG% 55.7% #94 · DRKE allows 55.6% #269+6.1
✗Few second chancesOR% 28.6% #233 · DRKE allows 25.9% #79−2.1
✓Gets to the lineFTR 47.5% #68 · DRKE allows 53.3% #321 · FT 74.1% #117+1.6
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootSouth Dakotaoffense vsDrakedefense
Share of shots by zone
South Dakota shoots
48.6
7.2
1.8
42.3
Drake allows
43.9
9.8
19.5
26.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.3%#163 | 66.7%#274 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 62.5%#42 | 0.0%#1 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 0.0%#327 | 50.0%#285 | 34.7% |
| Three | 31.4%#199 | 42.9%#324 | 32.5% |
Drakeoffense vsSouth Dakotadefense
Share of shots by zone
Drake shoots
35.3
9.8
5.9
49.0
South Dakota allows
39.0
9.8
12.2
39.0
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 72.2%#35 | 62.5%#229 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 20.0%#275 | 25.0%#76 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.3%#174 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 32.0%#181 | 54.2%#357 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineSouth Dakota
+3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#135 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#233
Def reb %
77.8%
#30
Turnover %
19.9%
#248
Forced TO %
16.8%
#214
FT rate
47.5%
#68
FT allowed
36.8%
#185
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding+3.1
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+2.6
Foul shots allowed+0.3
Drake
+9.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#59 of 365
Off reb %
33.3%
#135
Def reb %
74.1%
#79
Turnover %
22.5%
#302
Forced TO %
29.6%
#4
FT rate
59.6%
#16
FT allowed
53.3%
#321
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding+1.9
Ball security−3.0
Forcing turnovers+8.2
Foul shots drawn+5.8
Foul shots allowed−4.0
Drake has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.4 (#59 of 365) to South Dakota’s +3.0 (#135).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notSouth Dakota2026-27 numbers · last game: Fullerton, Nov 7
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | G | So | 6'4" | 3-3 | 27.7 | 32 | — | Started last | 20.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 77.8% | 27.8% | |
| 2 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-3 | 27.0 | 31 | — | Started last | 5.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 40.0% | 18.2% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 12.4% | |
| 44 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-3 | 24.3 | 24 | — | Started last | 17.0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 57.6% | 36.4% | 7.3 | 100.0% | 30.6% | |
| 13 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-2 | 23.0 | 23 | — | Bench | 10.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 36.7% | 20.0% | 3.3 | 76.9% | 30.9% | |
| 9 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-1 | 22.0 | 27 | — | Started last | 11.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 62.5% | 42.9% | 2.3 | 76.9% | 24.6% | |
| 15 | C | Jr | 6'10" | 3-3 | 19.0 | 17 | — | Started last | 10.7 | 6.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 76.5% | — | 0.0 | 54.5% | 26.9% | |
| 21 | F | Jr | 6'5" | 3-0 | 15.7 | 18 | — | Bench | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 4.0 | 50.0% | 16.0% | |
| 8 | F | Jr | 6'10" | 3-0 | 12.0 | 13 | — | Bench | 3.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 83.3% | 13.9% | |
| 19 | G | So | 6'5" | 2-0 | 12.0 | 12 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 17.8% | |
| 34 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 3-0 | 8.0 | 1 | — | Bench | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 14.0% | |
| 6 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 2 | — | Bench | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 2.0 | — | 16.5% | |
| 3 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 1-0 | 13.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | — | 16.4% | |
| 0 | G | Fr | 6'0" | 1-0 | 8.0 | — | — | Missed last | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 2.0 | 100.0% | 19.7% | |
| 22 | F | So | 6'7" | 1-0 | 2.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesSouth Dakota
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −4.2
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +14.8
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Fullerton | H | L 85–87 | −1.0 | L−3.0 | 176.0 | U172 | 102.9 | 105.3 | 82.6 |
| Nov 4 | N Kentucky | H | L 94–102 | +2.5 | L−5.5 | 162.5 | O196 | 120.4 | 130.6 | 78.1 |
| Nov 2 | Mount Marty Lancers | H | W 95–57 | — | — | — | — | 125.7 | 75.4 | 75.6 |
| Mar 6 | Omaha | N | L 62–76 | +2.0 | L−12.0 | 151.5 | U138 | 95.8 | 117.4 | 64.7 |
| Feb 28 | S Dakota St | H | W 75–70 | +3.0 | W+8.0 | 151.0 | U145 | 108.0 | 100.8 | 69.4 |
| Feb 25 | Omaha | H | W 89–72 | +1.5 | W+18.5 | 153.5 | O161 | 121.5 | 98.3 | 73.3 |
| Feb 21 | Oral Roberts | A | L 62–67 | −1.0 | L−6.0 | 151.5 | U129 | 85.4 | 92.2 | 72.6 |
| Feb 19 | Denver | A | L 70–90 | +6.0 | L−14.0 | 162.5 | U160 | 107.3 | 137.9 | 65.3 |
| Feb 11 | North Dakota | H | L 71–72 | −1.5 | L−2.5 | 156.5 | U143 | 106.2 | 107.7 | 66.8 |
| Feb 7 | S Dakota St | A | W 68–67 | +11.5 | W+12.5 | 157.5 | U135 | 97.6 | 96.1 | 69.7 |
Drake
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −7.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −8.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | Southern | H | W 75–68 | −14.0 | L−7.0 | 151.0 | U143 | 105.5 | 95.7 | 71.1 |
| Nov 4 | Central College Dutch | H | W 101–48 | — | — | — | — | 139.3 | 66.2 | 72.5 |
| Mar 7 | UIC | N | L 51–72 | +4.5 | L−16.5 | 143.5 | U123 | 82.1 | 115.9 | 62.1 |
| Mar 6 | Belmont | N | W 100–79 | +12.5 | W+33.5 | 153.5 | O179 | 138.6 | 109.5 | 72.2 |
| Mar 5 | S Illinois | N | W 67–63 | +4.5 | W+8.5 | 138.0 | U130 | 104.0 | 97.8 | 64.4 |
| Mar 1 | Northern Iowa | H | L 53–75 | +4.0 | L−18.0 | 137.5 | U128 | 84.2 | 119.1 | 63.0 |
| Feb 25 | Valparaiso | A | L 71–74 | +3.0 | P0.0 | 147.5 | U145 | 111.6 | 116.3 | 63.6 |
| Feb 18 | S Illinois | H | L 61–66 | +1.5 | L−3.5 | 150.0 | U127 | 86.4 | 93.5 | 70.6 |
| Feb 15 | Northern Iowa | A | L 62–86 | +8.5 | L−15.5 | 138.5 | O148 | 94.5 | 131.0 | 65.6 |
| Feb 12 | UIC | H | L 70–80 | −1.0 | L−11.0 | 146.5 | O150 | 106.7 | 122.0 | 65.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSouth DakotaDrake
Efficiency
104.1
105.4
112.6
107.7
74.0
70.2
-1.7
-10.4
Shooting
55.7%
53.8%
62.0%
59.3%
31.4%
32.0%
74.1%
61.3%
47.5%
59.6%
Ball control & glass
19.9%
22.5%
16.8%
29.6%
28.6%
33.3%
22.2%
25.9%
10.0%
14.1%
9.9%
11.1%
Style
41.8%
48.1%
49.2%
40.0%
12.8%
10.7%
41.7%
62.5%
38.7%
36.3%
Roster
3.18
2.89
6'4.7"
6'3.9"
21.4%
45.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSouth Dakota
Returning minutes: 21.4%Returning production: 15.6%
Lost
- Jordan Crawford 31.2 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to Missouri
- Uzziah Buntyn 29.4 mpg, 11.7 ppg · transferred to N Illinois
- Cameron Fens 25.3 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to North Carolina
- Isaac Bruns 19.3 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to USC
- Silas Bennion 14.4 mpg, 2.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Evan Anderson 13.1 mpg, 2.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jahni Summers from Sacramento St · 25.8 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
- Melo Sanchez from C Connecticut · 23.9 mpg, 9.2 ppg last season
- Kajus Kublickas from Pacific · 20.2 mpg, 5.6 ppg last season
- Stef van Bussel from Duquesne · 3.0 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
- Cade Kelderman from Iowa State · 1.8 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Josh Townley-Thomas from Creighton · 0.1 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Drake
Returning minutes: 45.6%Returning production: 39.9%
Lost
- Jalen Quinn 33.6 mpg, 19.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Okku Federiko 23.3 mpg, 8.6 ppg · transferred to Northwestern
- Jaehshon Thomas 20.7 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isaiah Carr 11.0 mpg, 3.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Braden Appelhans 10.9 mpg, 4.2 ppg · transferred to Xavier
- Wilguens Jr. Exacte 10.3 mpg, 3.9 ppg · transferred to Mount St Marys
Added
- Gabe Oldham from Denver · 25.6 mpg, 5.6 ppg last season
- Jon Carroll from Morehead St · 24.6 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
- Dre Kindell from Wichita St · 17.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season
- Bryson Bahl no D1 minutes last season
- LJ Rush no D1 minutes last season
- Miles Flemons no D1 minutes last season
Returns 46% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Fri, Nov 13
- West Florida vs Cleveland St · 3:00 PM ET
- Texas A&M-CC at Florida St · 5:00 PM ET
- North Alabama at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
- Georgetown at Clemson · 6:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Rutgers · 6:00 PM ET
- Pitt at Butler · 6:30 PM ET
- Merrimack at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Georgia at North Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Tennessee St at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
- Long Island at Fordham · 7:00 PM ET
- Harvard at G Washington · 7:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Illinois · 7:00 PM ET
- Troy at NC State · 7:00 PM ET
- Mount St Marys at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Yale at Northeastern · 7:00 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Elon · 7:00 PM ET
- Iona at Hofstra · 7:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
- Prairie View at Vanderbilt · 7:00 PM ET
- FIU at FGCU · 7:00 PM ET
- Columbia at Bucknell · 7:00 PM ET
- Marist at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Northern Iowa at Michigan St · 7:00 PM ET
- App State at Charlotte · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio State at UConn · 7:30 PM ET
- SE Missouri at MTSU · 7:30 PM ET
- NC Central at Liberty · 7:30 PM ET
- FDU at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- SIUE at Duke · 8:00 PM ET
- Virginia at Maryland · 8:00 PM ET
- C Arkansas at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
- Milwaukee at TCU · 8:00 PM ET
- GA Southern at UCF · 8:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Tarleton St · 8:00 PM ET
- Wright St at Samford · 8:00 PM ET
- Illinois St at N Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas Southern at Murray St · 8:00 PM ET
- Southern Miss at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood at Omaha · 8:45 PM ET
- Seton Hall at Alabama · 9:00 PM ET
- Xavier vs Mississippi St · 9:00 PM ET
- DePaul at Northwestern · 9:00 PM ET
- Arizona at Auburn · 9:00 PM ET
- Ball State at SMU · 9:00 PM ET
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- Cal Poly at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
- Stanford at UNLV · 9:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
- Miss Valley St at Oregon St · 9:30 PM ET
- UIC at Saint Mary's · 10:00 PM ET
- East Texas A&M at Portland · 10:00 PM ET
- UC San Diego at Utah State · 10:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at CA Baptist · 10:30 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.