CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
Georgia
Efficiency #32
2025-26: 22-11 · 10-9 conf
@
North Carolina
Efficiency #29
2025-26: 24-9 · 12-7 conf
Fri, Nov 13 · TBD
78.1
win 35%
Projected
82.6
win 65%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNC −4.5 · total 160.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: North Carolina 68.7, Georgia 71.5 → 71.9 possessions
+7.8
North Carolina offense vs Georgia defense
+2.5
Georgia offense vs North Carolina defense
+2.2
Projected total
160.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
North Carolina offense vs Georgia defense
+2.5
Georgia offense vs North Carolina defense
−2.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
North Carolina by 4.5
4.5
Georgia side ◂▸ North Carolina side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +4.4 against +4.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help North Carolina.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Georgia is the faster team (73.6, #8 of 365) and North Carolina the slower (68.8, #162). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
160.7
model
Projected team totals
78.1 / 82.6
Georgia / North Carolina
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.5#10
Georgia
68.7#144
North Carolina
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageGeorgia
Where Georgia scores: ball control
Georgia turns it over on 14.3% of possessions (#31); North Carolina forces turnovers on 13.6% of opponent possessions (#344). Expect about 13.3%, 3.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.2 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
North Carolina averages 68.8 possessions per 40, Georgia 73.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
DefenseGeorgia
Georgia's shot-blocking
Georgia ranks #10 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.0% of North Carolina's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageNorth Carolina
Where North Carolina scores: shooting
North Carolina shoots an effective 54.3% (#57); Georgia allows 50.6% (#134). Expect about 52.7%, 1.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.
ClashGeorgia
Style match: ball movement
Georgia creates off the dribble (assists on 48.1% of its baskets); North Carolina breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.8% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 46.7% — both habits push the same way.
GlassNorth Carolina
North Carolina owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.1% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for North Carolina's offense.
Georgia has the ball
OffenseNorth Carolina allowsvs D1 avg
54.2% #61
48.3% #44
+0.3 pt/100
14.3% #31
13.6% #344
+4.2 pt/100
34.9% #49
27.8% #59
+1.1 pt/100
36.9% #131
23.8% #3
-0.7 pt/100
75.0% #81
—
+0.2 pt/100
Georgia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.1 pts/100
North Carolina has the ball
OffenseGeorgia allowsvs D1 avg
54.3% #57
50.6% #134
+2.0 pt/100
13.9% #19
18.4% #81
+0.7 pt/100
31.2% #159
34.9% #336
+1.6 pt/100
37.1% #127
30.2% #65
-0.2 pt/100
68.2% #322
—
-0.4 pt/100
North Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersGeorgiaoffense vsNorth Carolinadefense
Share of shots by zone
Georgia shoots
41.0
4.6
10.7
43.7
North Carolina allows
33.9
7.1
22.1
36.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.2%#68 | 55.8%#79 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 46.0%#51 | 41.1%#211 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.1%#218 | 33.5%#38 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.8%#185 | 34.7%#234 | 33.7% |
North Carolinaoffense vsGeorgiadefense
Share of shots by zone
North Carolina shoots
37.1
7.1
14.0
41.8
Georgia allows
40.6
4.8
16.8
37.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.0%#22 | 56.7%#106 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.3%#114 | 43.8%#265 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.1%#51 | 38.7%#186 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.2%#159 | 33.6%#165 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersGeorgia
+4.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#28 of 365
Off reb %
34.9%
#49
Def reb %
65.1%
#336
Turnover %
14.3%
#31
Forced TO %
18.4%
#81
FT rate
36.9%
#131
FT allowed
30.2%
#65
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.5
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed+1.3
North Carolina
+4.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#31 of 365
Off reb %
31.2%
#159
Def reb %
72.2%
#59
Turnover %
13.9%
#19
Forced TO %
13.6%
#344
FT rate
37.1%
#127
FT allowed
23.8%
#3
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+2.0
Forcing turnovers−2.1
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed+2.9
Georgia has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.7 (#28 of 365) to North Carolina’s +4.5 (#31).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Georgia2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Freddie Dilione Vat Penn State | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-15 | 27.5 | 14.0 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 53.0% | 31.8% | 4.1 | 81.7% | 30.3% | |
| 0 | Blue Cain | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 27.8 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 53.6% | 30.0% | 4.5 | 90.7% | 24.2% | |
| 4 | Marcus Millender | G | Sr | 5'11" | 33-8 | 26.2 | 12.0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 55.6% | 38.6% | 4.8 | 84.0% | 24.6% | |
| 6 | Kanon Catchings | F | Jr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 23.3 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 53.2% | 37.6% | 5.7 | 65.1% | 27.7% | |
| 9 | James Scottat Ole Miss | F | Sr | 6'11" | 35-27 | 17.9 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 72.9% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 11.0% | |
| 11 | Brady Dunlapat Saint Louis | F | Sr | 6'8" | 34-2 | 16.9 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 62.0% | 45.1% | 3.3 | 81.4% | 20.4% | |
| 1 | Kareem Stagg | F | So | 6'8" | 33-9 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 57.5% | 30.0% | 1.5 | 75.6% | 19.8% | |
| 34 | Andrew Osasuyiat St Bonaventure | F | So | 6'10" | 33-2 | 11.9 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 65.1% | — | 0.0 | 46.9% | 17.9% | |
| 30 | Brandon Klatsky | G | Sr | 6'4" | 7-0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 0.4 | — | 23.0% | |
| 12 | Markel Jennings | G | Sr | 5'11" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 48.4% | |
| 16 | David Ugonna Ike | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Donovan Williams Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Hakeem Weems | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 55 | Kemauri Millender | G | Sr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Mading Kuany | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Freddie Dilione V (from Penn State), Brady Dunlap (from Saint Louis), Andrew Osasuyi (from St Bonaventure), James Scott (from Ole Miss)
North Carolina2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrence Brownat Utah | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 31.5 | 19.9 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 48.6% | 32.7% | 3.1 | 77.5% | 38.7% | |
| 17 | Neo Avdalasat Virginia Tech | G | So | 6'9" | 31-31 | 31.7 | 12.1 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 46.0% | 31.4% | 5.0 | 67.3% | 26.9% | |
| 14 | Angelo Brizziat Buffalo | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 29.8 | 14.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 56.3% | 37.3% | 4.2 | 83.4% | 27.4% | |
| 15 | Jarin Stevenson | F | Sr | 6'10" | 33-25 | 25.8 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 54.1% | 29.5% | 2.7 | 74.2% | 17.5% | |
| 54 | Cameron Fensat South Dakota | C | Sr | 7'0" | 32-32 | 25.3 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 57.9% | — | 0.0 | 58.5% | 31.1% | |
| 3 | Matt Ableat NC State | G | So | 6'5" | 34-0 | 21.7 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 51.4% | 35.5% | 4.1 | 79.6% | 24.0% | |
| 4 | Jaydon Young | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-4 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 40.8% | 28.3% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 18.4% | |
| 2 | Isaiah Denis | G | So | 6'4" | 10-0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 64.3% | 50.0% | 0.8 | 50.0% | 26.4% | |
| 32 | Evan Smith | G | Sr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 34.4% | |
| 99 | John Holbrook | F | Jr | 6'8" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 13.7% | |
| 35 | Cade Bennermanat Northwestern | C | So | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Alex Samodurov | F | Jr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Kevin Thomas | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Malloy Smith | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 25 | Maximo Adams | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Sayon Keita | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Matt Able (from NC State), Neo Avdalas (from Virginia Tech), Cade Bennerman (from Northwestern), Angelo Brizzi (from Buffalo), Terrence Brown (from Utah), Cameron Fens (from South Dakota)
Georgia2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Freddie Dilione Vat Penn State | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-15 | 27.5 | 14.0 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 53.0% | 31.8% | 4.1 | 81.7% | 30.3% | |
| 0 | Blue Cain | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 27.8 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 53.6% | 30.0% | 4.5 | 90.7% | 24.2% | |
| 4 | Marcus Millender | G | Sr | 5'11" | 33-8 | 26.2 | 12.0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 55.6% | 38.6% | 4.8 | 84.0% | 24.6% | |
| 6 | Kanon Catchings | F | Jr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 23.3 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 53.2% | 37.6% | 5.7 | 65.1% | 27.7% | |
| 9 | James Scottat Ole Miss | F | Sr | 6'11" | 35-27 | 17.9 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 72.9% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 11.0% | |
| 11 | Brady Dunlapat Saint Louis | F | Sr | 6'8" | 34-2 | 16.9 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 62.0% | 45.1% | 3.3 | 81.4% | 20.4% | |
| 1 | Kareem Stagg | F | So | 6'8" | 33-9 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 57.5% | 30.0% | 1.5 | 75.6% | 19.8% | |
| 34 | Andrew Osasuyiat St Bonaventure | F | So | 6'10" | 33-2 | 11.9 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 65.1% | — | 0.0 | 46.9% | 17.9% | |
| 30 | Brandon Klatsky | G | Sr | 6'4" | 7-0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 0.4 | — | 23.0% | |
| 12 | Markel Jennings | G | Sr | 5'11" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 48.4% | |
| 16 | David Ugonna Ike | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Donovan Williams Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Hakeem Weems | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 55 | Kemauri Millender | G | Sr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Mading Kuany | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Freddie Dilione V (from Penn State), Brady Dunlap (from Saint Louis), Andrew Osasuyi (from St Bonaventure), James Scott (from Ole Miss)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Georgia
Against the spread
Season
15-17-1
Home
8-9-1
Road
6-4
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −2.0
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
18-15
Home
11-7
Road
5-5
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +4.8
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #9Saint Louis | N | L 77–102 | −1.5 | L−26.5 | 167.5 | O179 | 96.5 | 127.8 | 79.8 |
| Mar 12 | Ole Miss | N | L 72–76 | −5.5 | L−9.5 | 156.5 | U148 | 97.0 | 102.4 | 74.2 |
| Mar 7 | Mississippi St | A | W 102–96 | −5.0 | W+1.0 | 164.5 | O198 | 128.7 | 121.1 | 79.3 |
| Mar 3 | #16Alabama | H | W 98–88 | +1.5 | W+11.5 | 180.0 | O186 | 131.1 | 117.7 | 74.7 |
| Feb 28 | South Carolina | H | W 87–68 | −12.5 | W+6.5 | 159.0 | U155 | 136.9 | 107.0 | 63.5 |
| Feb 25 | #25Vanderbilt | A | L 80–88 | +7.5 | L−0.5 | 163.0 | O168 | 121.1 | 133.2 | 66.1 |
| Feb 21 | Texas | H | W 91–80 | −3.0 | W+8.0 | 163.5 | O171 | 146.7 | 129.0 | 62.0 |
| Feb 17 | Kentucky | A | W 86–78 | +6.5 | W+14.5 | 160.5 | O164 | 127.9 | 116.0 | 67.3 |
| Feb 14 | Oklahoma | A | L 78–94 | +2.0 | L−14.0 | 165.0 | O172 | 124.7 | 150.3 | 62.5 |
| Feb 11 | #14Florida | H | L 66–86 | +9.0 | L−11.0 | 165.0 | U152 | 87.2 | 113.6 | 75.7 |
North Carolina
Against the spread
Season
19-13-1
Home
12-5-1
Road
5-5
Last 10
6-3-1
avg cover −0.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 4 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-19
Home
6-12
Road
5-5
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −3.1
Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #11VCU | N | L 78–82 OT | −2.5 | L−6.5 | 151.0 | O160 | 101.9 | 107.1 | 76.5 |
| Mar 12 | Clemson | N | L 79–80 | +1.5 | W+0.5 | 140.5 | O159 | 114.5 | 115.9 | 69.0 |
| Mar 7 | #1Duke | A | L 61–76 | +18.0 | W+3.0 | 147.0 | U137 | 93.8 | 116.9 | 65.0 |
| Mar 3 | Clemson | H | W 67–63 | −2.5 | W+1.5 | 142.0 | U130 | 102.3 | 96.2 | 65.5 |
| Feb 28 | Virginia Tech | H | W 89–82 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 150.0 | O171 | 128.5 | 118.4 | 69.2 |
| Feb 23 | #24Louisville | H | W 77–74 | +3.5 | W+6.5 | 163.0 | U151 | 115.6 | 111.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 21 | Syracuse | A | W 77–64 | +1.5 | W+14.5 | 154.5 | U141 | 113.3 | 94.2 | 67.9 |
| Feb 17 | NC State | A | L 58–82 | +7.5 | L−16.5 | 155.5 | U140 | 90.2 | 127.6 | 64.3 |
| Feb 14 | Pitt | H | W 79–65 | −11.5 | W+2.5 | 145.0 | U144 | 120.7 | 99.3 | 65.4 |
| Feb 10 | Miami | A | L 66–75 | −1.0 | L−10.0 | 156.5 | U141 | 95.2 | 108.2 | 69.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeGeorgiaNorth Carolina
Efficiency
117.4
115.5
105.0
102.6
71.5
68.7
—
—
Shooting
54.2%
54.3%
57.0%
56.5%
33.8%
34.2%
75.0%
68.2%
36.9%
37.1%
Ball control & glass
14.3%
13.9%
18.4%
13.6%
34.9%
31.2%
34.9%
27.8%
9.4%
8.3%
9.8%
9.1%
Style
44.3%
42.2%
43.2%
42.6%
22.1%
14.4%
48.1%
57.2%
41.6%
28.4%
Roster
3.56
3.37
6'6.2"
6'6.7"
44.2%
17.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputGeorgia
Returning minutes: 44.2%Returning production: 44.6%
Lost
- Jeremiah Wilkinson 24.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg · transferred to Arkansas
- Somto Cyril 21.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Miami
- Jordan Ross 20.2 mpg, 6.5 ppg · transferred to California
- Dylan James 15.0 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Justin Bailey 11.8 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Justin Abson 10.7 mpg, 2.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Freddie Dilione V from Penn State · 27.5 mpg, 14.0 ppg last season
- James Scott from Ole Miss · 17.9 mpg, 3.9 ppg last season
- Brady Dunlap from Saint Louis · 16.4 mpg, 6.8 ppg last season
- Andrew Osasuyi from St Bonaventure · 11.6 mpg, 3.6 ppg last season
- Mading Kuany no D1 minutes last season
- Donovan Williams Jr. no D1 minutes last season
Returns 44% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred).
North Carolina
Returning minutes: 17.0%Returning production: 13.2%
Lost
- Henri Veesaar 29.5 mpg, 16.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Luka Bogavac 24.4 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Seth Trimble 23.6 mpg, 10.2 ppg · transferred to Louisville
- Caleb Wilson 22.9 mpg, 14.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Derek Dixon 22.3 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kyan Evans 17.6 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Terrence Brown from Utah · 31.5 mpg, 19.9 ppg last season
- Neo Avdalas from Virginia Tech · 30.8 mpg, 11.7 ppg last season
- Angelo Brizzi from Buffalo · 29.8 mpg, 14.5 ppg last season
- Cameron Fens from South Dakota · 25.3 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
- Matt Able from NC State · 21.7 mpg, 8.8 ppg last season
- Kevin Thomas no D1 minutes last season
Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.