CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceStabler Arena, Bethlehem, PA
Marist
Efficiency #153
2025-26: 19-12 · 13-9 conf
@
Lehigh
Efficiency #273
2025-26: 18-17 · 14-7 conf
Fri, Nov 13 · TBD
68.7
win 53%
Projected
67.8
win 47%
No line posted yet.
Model: MRST −0.9 · total 136.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Lehigh 67.8, Marist 67.6 → 67.1 possessions
−2.7
Lehigh offense vs Marist defense
−6.9
Marist offense vs Lehigh defense
−2.2
Projected total
136.5
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Lehigh offense vs Marist defense
−6.9
Marist offense vs Lehigh defense
+2.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Marist by 0.9
0.9
Marist side ◂▸ Lehigh side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 136.4 against a projected 136.5, and the margin steps add to −0.8 against −0.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Lehigh.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Marist is the faster team (66.5, #271 of 365) and Lehigh the slower (66.5, #275). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
136.5
model
Projected team totals
68.7 / 67.8
Marist / Lehigh
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.6#246
Marist
67.8#221
Lehigh
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageLehigh
Where Lehigh struggles: the offensive glass
Lehigh rebounds 23.2% of its own misses (#349); Marist lets opponents grab 28.3% of their own misses (#77). Expect about 24.3%, 6.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.7 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversLehigh
Lehigh turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.0% is worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions against Lehigh's offense.
ClashMarist
Style match: 3-point volume
Marist rarely shoots threes (34.6% of its shots); Lehigh runs teams off the line (31.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 30.6% — both habits push the same way.
Pace
Half-court grind
Lehigh averages 66.5 possessions per 40, Marist 66.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageMarist
Where Marist struggles: shooting
Marist shoots an effective 49.3% (#276); Lehigh allows 50.6% (#133). Expect about 49.8%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Marist's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Marist at about 30.6% of its shots from three, Lehigh about 36.8%.
Marist has the ball
OffenseLehigh allowsvs D1 avg
49.3% #276
50.6% #133
-2.1 pt/100
16.9% #193
16.2% #213
+0.4 pt/100
29.1% #233
31.4% #226
-0.2 pt/100
25.7% #360
32.5% #115
-0.8 pt/100
78.1% #16
—
+0.5 pt/100
Marist net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.2 pts/100
Lehigh has the ball
OffenseMarist allowsvs D1 avg
52.9% #107
45.6% #5
-2.8 pt/100
17.7% #252
19.5% #34
-2.8 pt/100
23.2% #349
28.3% #77
-3.7 pt/100
31.8% #258
37.6% #252
-0.0 pt/100
72.6% #180
—
+0.0 pt/100
Lehigh net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMaristoffense vsLehighdefense
Share of shots by zone
Marist shoots
35.8
6.9
23.6
33.7
Lehigh allows
44.6
5.6
18.5
31.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.4%#181 | 55.8%#82 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.7%#152 | 45.6%#318 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.5%#92 | 40.9%#274 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.2%#272 | 32.9%#109 | 33.7% |
Lehighoffense vsMaristdefense
Share of shots by zone
Lehigh shoots
34.4
7.9
18.9
38.8
Marist allows
37.4
6.1
19.2
37.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.6%#82 | 54.0%#40 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.7%#229 | 36.7%#105 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.8%#116 | 34.9%#72 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.1%#56 | 28.6%#2 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMarist
−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#218 of 365
Off reb %
29.1%
#233
Def reb %
71.7%
#77
Turnover %
16.9%
#193
Forced TO %
19.5%
#34
FT rate
25.7%
#360
FT allowed
37.6%
#252
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers+1.9
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.6
Lehigh
−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#320 of 365
Off reb %
23.2%
#349
Def reb %
68.6%
#226
Turnover %
17.7%
#252
Forced TO %
16.2%
#213
FT rate
31.8%
#258
FT allowed
32.5%
#115
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.3
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.4
Foul shots drawn−0.8
Foul shots allowed+0.7
Marist has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.8 (#218 of 365) to Lehigh’s −3.7 (#320).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Marist2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jadin Collins-Roberts | G | Sr | 6'1" | 31-31 | 30.3 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 47.2% | 23.8% | 1.4 | 80.4% | 18.4% | |
| 1 | Jack Grahamat New Hampshire | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-23 | 28.0 | 11.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 50.7% | 32.2% | 5.8 | 66.7% | 25.2% | |
| 5 | Myles Parker | F | So | 6'8" | 31-0 | 14.5 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 59.1% | 38.5% | 2.5 | 78.6% | 19.4% | |
| 21 | Jordan Gabriel | C | So | 6'9" | 25-0 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 53.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 45.5% | 21.5% | |
| 25 | Tarik Watson | C | Jr | 6'8" | 10-0 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 44.8% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 35.1% | |
| 23 | Brady MacAdams | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Brandon Arnold | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Cameron Sweeney | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Drew Diaz | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Dywane Chess | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Edward Onyia | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Josh Williams | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Logan Franz | C | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Logan Rodriguez | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Jack Graham (from New Hampshire)
Lehigh2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Joshua Ingram | G | Jr | 6'4" | 35-35 | 34.9 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 58.1% | 38.4% | 3.6 | 72.5% | 18.3% | |
| 35 | Hank Alvey | F | So | 6'9" | 35-35 | 30.9 | 15.2 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 63.1% | 41.7% | 0.3 | 65.9% | 26.5% | |
| 25 | Peter Kramer | G | So | 6'5" | 35-14 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 53.8% | 37.5% | 2.7 | 68.4% | 12.5% | |
| 5 | Edouard Benoit | F | So | 6'8" | 24-23 | 28.8 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 46.9% | 31.3% | 4.0 | 82.5% | 24.6% | |
| 31 | Jalen Vazquez | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-19 | 21.9 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 43.6% | 28.2% | 1.3 | 68.6% | 14.3% | |
| 0 | Andrew Urosevic | G | Fr | 6'3" | 28-1 | 19.6 | 7.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 51.8% | 33.1% | 5.2 | 77.8% | 23.6% | |
| 10 | Caleb Thomas | G | Fr | 5'10" | 21-13 | 22.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 36.7% | 18.8% | 1.5 | 58.3% | 21.1% | |
| 15 | Alfredo Addesa | F | So | 6'10" | 33-0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 42.5% | 28.1% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 21.2% | |
| 21 | Jake Pike | F | Jr | 6'8" | 15-0 | 11.0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 0.5 | 80.0% | 9.7% | |
| 32 | Henri Adiassa | C | Sr | 6'11" | 22-0 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 80.0% | 8.0% | |
| 44 | Tommy Conniff | C | Sr | 6'11" | 11-0 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 7.5% | |
| 11 | Brendan Reed | G | Sr | 6'0" | 6-0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 17.6% | |
| 23 | Bube Momah | F | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Caesar Burrows | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Marist2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jadin Collins-Roberts | G | Sr | 6'1" | 31-31 | 30.3 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 47.2% | 23.8% | 1.4 | 80.4% | 18.4% | |
| 1 | Jack Grahamat New Hampshire | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-23 | 28.0 | 11.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 50.7% | 32.2% | 5.8 | 66.7% | 25.2% | |
| 5 | Myles Parker | F | So | 6'8" | 31-0 | 14.5 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 59.1% | 38.5% | 2.5 | 78.6% | 19.4% | |
| 21 | Jordan Gabriel | C | So | 6'9" | 25-0 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 53.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 45.5% | 21.5% | |
| 25 | Tarik Watson | C | Jr | 6'8" | 10-0 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 44.8% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 35.1% | |
| 23 | Brady MacAdams | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Brandon Arnold | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Cameron Sweeney | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Drew Diaz | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Dywane Chess | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Edward Onyia | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Josh Williams | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Logan Franz | C | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Logan Rodriguez | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Jack Graham (from New Hampshire)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Marist
Against the spread
Season
15-14-1
Home
7-6-1
Road
6-8
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −1.6
Covered 2 straightCovered 3 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
11-19
Home
4-10
Road
6-8
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −5.5
Under in the last gameOver in 1 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Merrimack | N | L 57–58 | +3.0 | W+2.0 | 128.5 | U115 | 89.2 | 90.7 | 63.9 |
| Mar 7 | Quinnipiac | N | W 77–75 | +2.0 | W+4.0 | 134.5 | O152 | 105.4 | 102.6 | 73.1 |
| Mar 1 | Saint Peter's | H | L 56–63 | −4.0 | L−11.0 | 132.0 | U119 | 87.6 | 98.6 | 63.9 |
| Feb 22 | Sacred Heart | H | W 65–63 | −7.5 | L−5.5 | 146.5 | U128 | 96.0 | 93.1 | 67.7 |
| Feb 20 | Manhattan | A | W 84–70 | −5.0 | W+9.0 | 142.0 | O154 | 131.2 | 109.3 | 64.0 |
| Feb 15 | Siena | H | L 63–67 | −2.0 | L−6.0 | 134.0 | U130 | 96.5 | 102.7 | 65.3 |
| Feb 12 | Merrimack | A | L 56–81 | +2.5 | L−22.5 | 129.5 | O137 | 84.5 | 122.2 | 66.3 |
| Feb 7 | Fairfield | A | L 60–63 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 138.0 | U123 | 98.1 | 103.0 | 61.2 |
| Feb 5 | Rider | H | W 81–52 | −14.0 | W+15.0 | 135.5 | U133 | 137.2 | 88.1 | 59.0 |
| Feb 1 | Niagara | A | W 58–46 | −9.5 | W+2.5 | 130.0 | U104 | 94.8 | 75.2 | 61.2 |
Lehigh
Against the spread
Season
19-14
Home
11-4
Road
6-9
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +3.6
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
18-15
Home
8-7
Road
9-6
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +2.1
Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | #16Prairie View | N | L 55–67 | −3.0 | L−15.0 | 142.5 | U122 | 84.4 | 102.8 | 65.2 |
| Mar 11 | Boston U | H | W 74–60 | +2.0 | W+16.0 | 139.0 | U134 | 121.0 | 98.1 | 61.2 |
| Mar 8 | Colgate | H | W 76–69 | +2.0 | W+9.0 | 146.0 | U145 | 110.9 | 100.7 | 68.5 |
| Mar 5 | Holy Cross | H | W 69–66 | −5.5 | L−2.5 | 142.5 | U135 | 103.6 | 99.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 28 | Bucknell | H | W 89–79 | −4.5 | W+5.5 | 139.5 | O168 | 131.1 | 116.3 | 67.9 |
| Feb 25 | American | A | W 78–73 | +7.0 | W+12.0 | 140.0 | O151 | 117.5 | 110.0 | 66.4 |
| Feb 22 | Boston U | H | W 70–67 | +2.0 | W+5.0 | 141.0 | U137 | 119.1 | 114.0 | 58.8 |
| Feb 18 | Navy | A | L 49–72 | +10.0 | L−13.0 | 139.5 | U121 | 76.0 | 111.7 | 64.5 |
| Feb 14 | Lafayette | A | W 78–69 | +1.0 | W+10.0 | 140.5 | O147 | 120.7 | 106.8 | 64.6 |
| Feb 11 | American | H | W 90–82 | +1.5 | W+9.5 | 140.0 | O172 | 121.4 | 110.6 | 74.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMaristLehigh
Efficiency
103.6
104.1
102.6
110.0
67.6
67.8
—
—
Shooting
49.3%
52.9%
49.8%
52.2%
32.2%
36.1%
78.1%
72.6%
25.7%
31.8%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
17.7%
19.5%
16.2%
29.1%
23.2%
28.3%
31.4%
10.0%
12.2%
8.3%
8.3%
Style
34.6%
38.3%
43.6%
41.2%
11.2%
13.4%
58.9%
54.3%
35.5%
25.4%
Roster
3.46
2.23
6'3.8"
6'5.4"
26.9%
83.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMarist
Returning minutes: 26.9%Returning production: 25.0%
Lost
- Rhyjon Blackwell 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Justin Menard 29.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elijah Lewis 22.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaden Daughtry 21.0 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Parby Kabamba 16.8 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jason Schofield 14.0 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jack Graham from New Hampshire · 28.0 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
- Cameron Sweeney no D1 minutes last season
- Josh Williams no D1 minutes last season
- Edward Onyia no D1 minutes last season
- Logan Franz no D1 minutes last season
- Logan Rodriguez no D1 minutes last season
Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Lehigh
Returning minutes: 83.1%Returning production: 77.0%
Lost
- Nasir Whitlock 35.0 mpg, 20.5 ppg · transferred to Georgia Tech
Added
- Caesar Burrows no D1 minutes last season
- Bube Momah no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 25 | 2025-26 | Lehigh 55 – 78 Marist |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.