CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFood City Center, Knoxville, TN

Tennessee St

Efficiency #155

2025-26: 23-10 · 17-5 conf

Tennessee

Efficiency #13

2025-26: 25-12 · 12-8 conf

Fri, Nov 13 · TBD

67.3

win 10%

Projected

81.9

win 90%

No line posted yet.

Model: TENN −14.6 · total 149.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Tennessee 67.1, Tennessee St 70.3 → 69.0 possessions

+1.5

Tennessee offense vs Tennessee St defense

+5.0

Tennessee St offense vs Tennessee defense

−5.6

Projected total

149.1

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Tennessee offense vs Tennessee St defense

+5.0

Tennessee St offense vs Tennessee defense

+5.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Tennessee by 14.6

14.6

Tennessee St side ◂▸ Tennessee side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Tennessee.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Tennessee St is the faster team (70.8, #61 of 365) and Tennessee the slower (67.4, #226). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

149.1

model

Projected team totals

67.3 / 81.9

Tennessee St / Tennessee

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.3#32

Tennessee St

67.1#284

Tennessee

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageTennessee

Where Tennessee scores: the offensive glass

Tennessee rebounds 44.7% of its own misses (#1); Tennessee St lets opponents grab 30.6% of their own misses (#184). Expect about 40.5%, 10.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.1 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageTennessee St

Where Tennessee St struggles: shooting

Tennessee St shoots an effective 50.0% (#234); Tennessee allows 47.8% (#37). Expect about 48.8%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversTennessee

Tennessee turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 19.0% is worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions against Tennessee's offense.

ClashTennessee

Style match: 3-point volume

Tennessee rarely shoots threes (32.1% of its shots); Tennessee St runs teams off the line (35.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.2% — both habits push the same way.

ClashTennessee St

Style match: ball movement

Tennessee St creates off the dribble (assists on 45.5% of its baskets); Tennessee breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.7% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 44.3% — both habits push the same way.

DefenseTennessee St

Tennessee St's ball-hawking

Tennessee St ranks #14 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.9% of Tennessee's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Tennessee St has the ball

OffenseTennessee allowsvs D1 avg

50.0% #234

47.8% #37

-3.6 pt/100

16.7% #176

16.2% #214

+0.5 pt/100

34.8% #53

27.8% #61

+1.1 pt/100

33.4% #228

36.3% #221

-0.0 pt/100

76.0% #52

—

+0.3 pt/100

Tennessee St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.6 pts/100

Tennessee has the ball

OffenseTennessee St allowsvs D1 avg

51.4% #174

51.6% #190

+0.4 pt/100

17.3% #227

19.8% #28

-2.8 pt/100

44.7% #1

30.6% #184

+6.1 pt/100

37.4% #115

41.4% #317

+0.6 pt/100

69.1% #296

—

-0.3 pt/100

Tennessee net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Tennessee Stoffense vsTennesseedefense

Share of shots by zone

Tennessee St shoots

40.8

6.0

23.8

29.5

Tennessee allows

32.0

7.2

15.9

44.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.4%#151	55.1%#60	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.0%#303	34.1%#45	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.4%#256	41.4%#287	38.0%
Three	33.3%#208	30.5%#21	33.7%

Tennesseeoffense vsTennessee Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Tennessee shoots

42.9

7.1

18.4

31.6

Tennessee St allows

44.2

6.1

14.2

35.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.5%#140	56.3%#93	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#134	42.9%#247	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.7%#268	40.7%#264	38.0%
Three	33.4%#201	34.0%#183	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Tennessee St

+1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#115 of 365

Off reb %

34.8%

#53

Def reb %

69.4%

#184

Turnover %

16.7%

#176

Forced TO %

19.8%

#28

FT rate

33.4%

#228

FT allowed

41.4%

#317

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.4

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers+2.1

Foul shots drawn−0.4

Foul shots allowed−1.6

Tennessee

+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#21 of 365

Off reb %

44.7%

Def reb %

72.2%

#61

Turnover %

17.3%

#227

Forced TO %

16.2%

#214

FT rate

37.4%

#115

FT allowed

36.3%

#221

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+4.6

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security−0.4

Forcing turnovers−0.4

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Tennessee has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#21 of 365) to Tennessee St’s +1.6 (#115).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Tennessee St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Dante Harris	G	Sr	6'0"	33-33	32.3	11.7	3.6	4.5	1.9	43.9%	30.0%	1.5	72.6%	24.1%
2	Travis Harper II	G	Sr	6'6"	33-32	31.3	17.1	4.1	1.2	1.5	57.4%	39.1%	6.3	85.7%	27.2%
12	Carlous Williams	F	Sr	6'5"	32-9	19.4	5.6	3.1	0.5	1.1	50.7%	32.1%	1.7	76.7%	18.0%
3	Khalil London	G	So	6'3"	24-0	15.3	6.4	1.6	1.1	1.3	39.7%	23.6%	3.0	75.0%	30.1%
7	Jabrion Spikes	G	Sr	6'2"	30-0	10.9	3.0	1.3	0.3	0.6	53.3%	25.0%	0.7	69.2%	16.7%
23	Kavien Jones	F	Fr	6'7"	30-0	10.6	2.7	2.4	0.2	0.2	60.3%	40.0%	0.2	44.4%	13.0%
1	Damon Howard Jr.	G	Fr	6'1"	21-0	7.3	1.7	0.7	0.9	0.3	32.2%	25.0%	1.0	77.8%	20.2%
4	JC Brooks	F	So	6'10"	18-1	8.1	1.7	2.0	0.3	0.5	47.8%	28.6%	0.4	60.0%	14.4%
31	Alex Garcia	F	Jr	6'9"	10-0	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.3	43.8%	16.7%	0.6	—	23.2%
20	Jayden Jones	G	Fr	6'4"	4-0	3.3	1.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	37.5%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	32.6%
21	Jean Yvens Lafleur	F	Jr	6'11"	2-0	6.0	1.0	2.5	0.0	0.5	50.0%	—	0.0	—	13.0%
5	Maddux Bodenhamer	G	So	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
24	Ogien Ayo	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tennessee2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Bishop Boswell	G	So	6'4"	34-33	26.5	6.2	4.4	3.1	1.6	52.2%	38.5%	2.3	66.7%	16.4%
13	J.P. Estrella	F	So	6'11"	33-13	18.3	10.0	5.4	0.8	0.9	60.4%	40.0%	0.3	63.4%	29.5%
6	DeWayne Brown II	F	Fr	6'8"	35-10	14.6	4.8	3.6	0.9	0.9	58.6%	—	0.0	66.0%	19.4%
1	Amari Evans	G	Fr	6'5"	35-2	14.4	4.1	3.2	0.8	0.6	46.1%	22.0%	1.4	57.5%	20.0%
35	Ethan Burg	G	So	6'3"	30-1	11.1	2.6	0.9	1.2	0.7	56.6%	40.5%	1.2	81.8%	15.6%
77	Amaree Abram	G	Sr	6'3"	25-3	10.6	3.2	1.4	0.7	0.3	50.0%	36.8%	1.5	77.8%	18.0%
24	Troy Henderson	G	Fr	6'1"	26-0	7.4	1.9	0.5	1.1	0.3	46.2%	33.3%	1.7	0.0%	18.0%
12	Cade Phillips	F	Jr	6'9"	10-9	16.8	3.8	4.0	0.4	0.7	65.4%	—	0.0	30.8%	13.3%
4	Clarence Massamba	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	3.7	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.2	21.4%	14.3%	0.6	50.0%	13.4%
21	Campbell Duncan	G	So	6'6"	1-0	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
11	Gavin Paull	G	So	5'11"	1-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	56.6%
7	Grant Hurst	G	Sr	6'2"	1-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	2.0	0.0%	70.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tennessee St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Dante Harris	G	Sr	6'0"	33-33	32.3	11.7	3.6	4.5	1.9	43.9%	30.0%	1.5	72.6%	24.1%
2	Travis Harper II	G	Sr	6'6"	33-32	31.3	17.1	4.1	1.2	1.5	57.4%	39.1%	6.3	85.7%	27.2%
12	Carlous Williams	F	Sr	6'5"	32-9	19.4	5.6	3.1	0.5	1.1	50.7%	32.1%	1.7	76.7%	18.0%
3	Khalil London	G	So	6'3"	24-0	15.3	6.4	1.6	1.1	1.3	39.7%	23.6%	3.0	75.0%	30.1%
7	Jabrion Spikes	G	Sr	6'2"	30-0	10.9	3.0	1.3	0.3	0.6	53.3%	25.0%	0.7	69.2%	16.7%
23	Kavien Jones	F	Fr	6'7"	30-0	10.6	2.7	2.4	0.2	0.2	60.3%	40.0%	0.2	44.4%	13.0%
1	Damon Howard Jr.	G	Fr	6'1"	21-0	7.3	1.7	0.7	0.9	0.3	32.2%	25.0%	1.0	77.8%	20.2%
4	JC Brooks	F	So	6'10"	18-1	8.1	1.7	2.0	0.3	0.5	47.8%	28.6%	0.4	60.0%	14.4%
31	Alex Garcia	F	Jr	6'9"	10-0	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.3	43.8%	16.7%	0.6	—	23.2%
20	Jayden Jones	G	Fr	6'4"	4-0	3.3	1.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	37.5%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	32.6%
21	Jean Yvens Lafleur	F	Jr	6'11"	2-0	6.0	1.0	2.5	0.0	0.5	50.0%	—	0.0	—	13.0%
5	Maddux Bodenhamer	G	So	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
24	Ogien Ayo	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Tennessee St

Against the spread

Season

18-12

Home

5-5

Road

11-6

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +8.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

5-5

Road

8-9

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +1.1

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#2Iowa StateAdjEM #7	N	L 74–108	+25.0	L−9.0	147.5	O182	94.4	137.7	78.4
Mar 7	Morehead StAdjEM #266	N	W 93–67	−5.0	W+21.0	144.0	O160	133.2	96.0	69.8
Mar 6	UT MartinAdjEM #182	N	W 68–55	−2.0	W+11.0	137.5	U123	111.4	90.1	61.1
Feb 28	UT MartinAdjEM #182	A	W 67–42	+2.5	W+27.5	143.5	U109	101.5	63.6	66.0
Feb 26	SE MissouriAdjEM #209	A	W 79–71	+3.5	W+11.5	152.0	U150	107.3	96.4	73.6
Feb 21	SIUEAdjEM #229	H	W 80–53	−4.5	W+22.5	143.5	U133	125.6	83.2	63.7
Feb 19	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	H	W 89–80	−3.5	W+5.5	159.0	O169	112.2	100.9	79.3
Feb 14	Morehead StAdjEM #266	A	L 86–94	−1.5	L−9.5	151.0	O180	124.3	135.8	69.2
Feb 12	S IndianaAdjEM #333	A	W 73–71	−6.0	L−4.0	148.5	U144	110.2	107.2	66.2
Feb 7	W IllinoisAdjEM #362	H	W 83–56	−14.5	W+12.5	151.0	U139	121.9	82.3	68.1

Tennessee

Against the spread

Season

17-18-2

Home

7-9-1

Road

4-5-1

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −1.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

18-19

Home

10-7

Road

3-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −1.3

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 29	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 62–95	+8.0	L−25.0	146.0	O157	82.3	126.1	75.3
Mar 27	#2Iowa StateAdjEM #7	N	W 76–62	+3.0	W+17.0	139.5	U138	111.8	91.2	68.0
Mar 22	#3VirginiaAdjEM #15	N	W 79–72	−1.0	W+6.0	136.5	O151	120.5	109.8	65.5
Mar 20	#11Miami OHAdjEM #66	N	W 78–56	−12.0	W+10.0	149.0	U134	118.7	85.2	65.7
Mar 13	#22VanderbiltAdjEM #12	N	L 68–75	−2.0	L−9.0	147.0	U143	109.1	120.3	62.4
Mar 12	AuburnAdjEM #41	N	W 72–62	−5.5	W+4.5	145.0	U134	112.8	97.1	63.9
Mar 7	#24VanderbiltAdjEM #12	H	L 82–86	−3.0	L−7.0	145.5	O168	112.2	117.7	73.1
Mar 3	South CarolinaAdjEM #123	A	W 78–59	−11.0	W+8.0	142.0	U137	126.6	95.8	61.6
Feb 28	#17AlabamaAdjEM #18	H	L 69–71	−5.0	L−7.0	162.5	U140	109.5	112.7	63.0
Feb 24	MissouriAdjEM #67	A	L 69–73	−4.0	L−8.0	144.0	U142	105.3	111.4	65.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Tennessee StTennessee

Efficiency

109.4

115.9

108.3

99.5

70.3

67.1

—

Shooting

50.0%

51.4%

50.0%

52.0%

33.3%

33.4%

76.0%

69.1%

33.4%

37.4%

Ball control & glass

16.7%

17.3%

19.8%

16.2%

34.8%

44.7%

30.6%

27.8%

10.3%

10.4%

7.7%

9.4%

Style

30.7%

32.1%

45.1%

48.5%

18.3%

13.7%

45.5%

60.4%

29.7%

31.7%

Roster

3.38

1.84

6'3.7"

6'5.8"

61.6%

47.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Tennessee St

Returning minutes: 61.6%Returning production: 51.9%

Lost

Aaron Nkrumah 31.3 mpg, 17.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jalen Pitre 24.3 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
Antoine Lorick III 21.5 mpg, 9.8 ppg · transferred to Buffalo

Added

Maddux Bodenhamer no D1 minutes last season
Ogien Ayo no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 62% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred).

Tennessee

Returning minutes: 47.2%Returning production: 42.6%

Lost

Ja'Kobi Gillespie 34.8 mpg, 18.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Nate Ament 28.1 mpg, 15.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Felix Okpara 25.5 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jaylen Carey 18.4 mpg, 7.4 ppg · transferred to Missouri

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 47% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Thu, Nov 20	2025-26	Tennessee St 60 – 89 Tennessee

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.