Lindenwood Lions vs Omaha Mavericks basketball preview & prediction

Fri, Nov 13 · 8:45 PM ET · Baxter Arena, Omaha, NE

Non-conferenceBaxter Arena, Omaha, NE

Lindenwood

2-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #280

Omaha

1-2 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #308

Fri, Nov 13 · 8:45 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 74.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Lindenwood is the faster team (75.5, #58 of 365) and Omaha the slower (72.1, #130). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

74.7

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

74.2#28

Lindenwood

71.0#150

Omaha

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Omaha has the ball−0.6

Lindenwood has the ball+2.1

Omaha has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 41.7% #314 · LIN allows 54.7% #254−2.9

✓Wins second chancesOR% 26.7% #264 · LIN allows 46.2% #347+1.7

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 18.7% #205 · LIN forces 17.2% #203 · ~13 turnovers+0.3

✓Gets to the lineFTR 21.4% #336 · LIN allows 59.4% #338 · FT 66.7% #229+0.3

Lindenwood has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 44.2% #279 · OMA allows 66.2% #349+4.8

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 35.0% #201 · OMA allows 30.0% #98 · FT 28.6% #359−3.2

✓Wins second chancesOR% 36.4% #92 · OMA allows 32.8% #211+1.8

✗Coughs it upTO% 26.5% #344 · OMA forces 13.2% #313 · ~15 turnovers−1.4

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Lindenwoodoffense vsOmahadefense

Share of shots by zone

Lindenwood shoots

33.3

7.7

15.4

43.6

Omaha allows

41.7

11.9

7.1

39.3

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	69.2%#60	74.3%#339	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.3%#183	30.0%#111	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	50.0%#45	66.7%#340	34.7%
Three	23.8%#317	42.9%#324	32.5%

Omahaoffense vsLindenwooddefense

Share of shots by zone

Omaha shoots

28.2

9.0

12.8

50.0

Lindenwood allows

52.6

5.3

10.5

31.6

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	50.0%#261	60.0%#195	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	28.6%#235	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	30.0%#213	0.0%#1	34.7%
Three	27.8%#248	52.6%#355	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Lindenwood

−15.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#350 of 365

Off reb %

36.4%

#92

Def reb %

53.8%

#347

Turnover %

26.5%

#344

Forced TO %

17.2%

#203

FT rate

35.0%

#201

FT allowed

59.4%

#338

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding−4.8

Ball security−5.9

Forcing turnovers−0.6

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed−5.6

Omaha

−7.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#286 of 365

Off reb %

26.7%

#264

Def reb %

67.2%

#211

Turnover %

18.7%

#205

Forced TO %

13.2%

#313

FT rate

21.4%

#336

FT allowed

30.0%

#98

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.6

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−0.3

Forcing turnovers−3.5

Foul shots drawn−4.2

Foul shots allowed+2.1

Omaha has more extra scoring chances per game: −7.9 (#286 of 365) to Lindenwood’s −15.9 (#350).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Lindenwood2026-27 numbers

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage	Status
11	G	Sr	6'1"	3-3	24.0	8.3	3.0	4.3	2.7	75.0%	60.0%	1.7	66.7%	18.5%	Active
1	G	Jr	6'2"	3-1	21.3	12.3	7.3	5.3	1.7	66.0%	50.0%	0.7	50.0%	28.5%	Active
7	G	Sr	6'4"	3-0	21.3	10.3	2.7	1.7	2.0	62.5%	35.3%	5.7	50.0%	26.0%	Active
14	G	So	6'3"	3-2	19.7	8.7	3.3	2.0	0.7	45.8%	28.6%	4.7	100.0%	25.4%	Active
42	F	Fr	6'5"	3-1	18.0	9.7	5.3	0.7	0.7	83.3%	100.0%	1.0	66.7%	19.7%	Active
3	G	Jr	6'4"	3-3	16.0	12.3	2.3	2.0	1.0	68.0%	53.3%	5.0	75.0%	33.5%	Active
21	F	Sr	6'10"	3-3	15.3	3.7	5.3	0.7	0.7	80.0%	0.0%	0.3	33.3%	13.2%	Active
41	C	Fr	6'10"	3-0	14.7	3.7	5.7	1.3	0.7	44.4%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	17.0%	Active
23	C	Fr	6'10"	3-0	12.3	3.7	2.7	2.7	0.7	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	18.8%	Active
35	F	Jr	6'11"	2-1	18.0	15.5	7.0	0.0	1.5	65.2%	—	0.0	100.0%	39.5%	Active
4	G	So	6'3"	2-0	14.0	12.5	1.5	3.0	0.0	57.1%	66.7%	1.5	50.0%	42.2%	Active
10	F	Jr	6'6"	1-1	23.0	10.0	7.0	0.0	2.0	45.0%	25.0%	4.0	14.3%	36.0%	Missed last
0	G	Fr	6'4"	3-0	4.3	1.7	1.0	0.0	0.3	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	24.7%	Active
2	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	4.0	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%	100.0%	0.3	—	22.4%	Active

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Lindenwood

Against the spread

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg cover −9.5

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg vs total +2.5

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 7	East West Phantoms	H	W 115–44	—	—	—	—	158.0	60.4	72.8
Nov 5	Central Bible Saints	H	W 120–46	—	—	—	—	155.9	59.8	77.0
Nov 2	TCUAdjEM #20	A	L 59–98	+29.5	L−9.5	154.5	O157	78.1	129.8	75.5
Mar 5	SE MissouriAdjEM #180	N	L 66–68	+3.0	W+1.0	149.0	U134	97.2	100.1	67.9
Mar 4	Little RockAdjEM #284	N	W 72–62	−4.5	W+5.5	148.5	U134	93.0	80.1	77.4
Feb 28	W IllinoisAdjEM #359	A	W 91–69	−11.5	W+10.5	150.5	O160	129.0	97.8	70.5
Feb 26	E IllinoisAdjEM #348	H	L 67–71	−7.5	L−11.5	144.0	U138	96.9	102.7	69.2
Feb 21	Tennessee TechAdjEM #265	A	L 57–72	−2.0	L−17.0	152.0	U129	86.1	108.8	66.2
Feb 19	Tennessee StAdjEM #209	A	L 80–89	+3.5	L−5.5	159.0	O169	100.9	112.2	79.3
Feb 14	SE MissouriAdjEM #180	H	L 61–73	−2.0	L−14.0	156.5	U134	84.2	100.8	72.4

Omaha

Against the spread

Season

0-2

Home

0-0

Road

0-2

Last 10

0-2

avg cover −6.5

Missed the spread 2 straight

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

0-0

Road

1-1

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total +3.0

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 7	Utah StateAdjEM #23	A	L 56–90	+29.0	L−5.0	153.5	U146	76.9	123.6	72.8
Nov 6	#25BYUAdjEM #19	A	L 67–108	+33.0	L−8.0	161.5	O175	93.9	151.3	71.4
Nov 2	Mid America Christian Evangels	H	W 73–65	—	—	—	—	107.9	96.1	67.6
Mar 7	N Dakota StAdjEM #223	N	L 50–74	+8.0	L−16.0	147.0	U124	73.8	109.2	67.8
Mar 6	South DakotaAdjEM #293	N	W 76–62	−2.0	W+12.0	151.5	U138	117.4	95.8	64.7
Feb 28	St ThomasAdjEM #135	A	L 53–68	+11.5	L−3.5	159.5	U121	81.3	104.3	65.2
Feb 25	South DakotaAdjEM #293	A	L 72–89	−1.5	L−18.5	153.5	O161	98.3	121.5	73.3
Feb 18	Oral RobertsAdjEM #328	H	W 80–71	−6.5	W+2.5	152.0	U151	121.2	107.6	66.0
Feb 15	DenverAdjEM #198	H	W 83–76	−2.5	W+4.5	160.5	U159	125.7	115.1	66.0
Feb 12	St ThomasAdjEM #135	H	W 98–94	+4.5	W+8.5	156.5	O192	132.5	127.1	74.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

LindenwoodOmaha

Efficiency

99.6

101.6

106.6

112.1

74.2

71.0

18.9

18.7

Shooting

44.2%

41.7%

48.7%

41.7%

23.8%

27.8%

28.6%

66.7%

35.0%

21.4%

Ball control & glass

26.5%

18.7%

17.2%

13.2%

36.4%

26.7%

46.2%

32.8%

19.9%

9.7%

7.7%

18.1%

Style

35.0%

42.9%

57.6%

35.8%

22.0%

3.3%

41.7%

60.0%

51.5%

39.3%

Roster

2.63

3.08

6'5.1"

6'5.3"

0.0%

19.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Lindenwood

Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%

Lost

Anias Futrell 30.6 mpg, 16.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Mekhi Cooper 29.9 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Louisiana
Dontrez Williams 28.2 mpg, 13.3 ppg · transferred to UNLV
Jadis Jones 27.9 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to USC
Milos Nenadic 27.5 mpg, 12.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Clayton Jackson 25.0 mpg, 7.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Xavier Spencer from UMass Lowell · 33.9 mpg, 11.9 ppg last season
Noah Taitz from Utah Valley · 17.3 mpg, 4.4 ppg last season
Matar Diop from Stetson · 12.0 mpg, 2.6 ppg last season
Makhan Diouf from Fresno St · 2.7 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
Malek Archie from Tarleton St · 0.7 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
Marko Lukanoski no D1 minutes last season

Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Omaha

Returning minutes: 19.8%Returning production: 19.4%

Lost

Lance Waddles 29.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg · transferred to Campbell
Tony Osburn 28.8 mpg, 10.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ja'Sean Glover 24.3 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Paul Djobet 18.1 mpg, 10.6 ppg · transferred to Texas St
Kamryn Thomas 17.6 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Christian Richardson 12.8 mpg, 6.1 ppg · transferred to Alcorn St

Added

Chris Dockery from Kansas City · 20.7 mpg, 6.8 ppg last season
Cahmai Crosby from North Texas · 9.4 mpg, 2.7 ppg last season
Justin Bolis from Nebraska · 0.7 mpg, 0.1 ppg last season
Deke Thompson from Texas St · 0.3 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
Isaac Ondekane no D1 minutes last season
Jonny Jordan Jr. no D1 minutes last season

Returns 20% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Fri, Nov 13

West Florida vs Cleveland St · 3:00 PM ET
Texas A&M-CC at Florida St · 5:00 PM ET
North Alabama at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
Georgetown at Clemson · 6:00 PM ET
Bryant at Rutgers · 6:00 PM ET
Pitt at Butler · 6:30 PM ET
Merrimack at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
Georgia at North Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
Tennessee St at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
Long Island at Fordham · 7:00 PM ET
Harvard at G Washington · 7:00 PM ET
Sam Houston at Illinois · 7:00 PM ET
Troy at NC State · 7:00 PM ET
Mount St Marys at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
Yale at Northeastern · 7:00 PM ET
Chattanooga at Elon · 7:00 PM ET
Iona at Hofstra · 7:00 PM ET
N Arizona at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
Prairie View at Vanderbilt · 7:00 PM ET
FIU at FGCU · 7:00 PM ET
Columbia at Bucknell · 7:00 PM ET
Marist at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
Northern Iowa at Michigan St · 7:00 PM ET
App State at Charlotte · 7:00 PM ET
Ohio at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
Ohio State at UConn · 7:30 PM ET
SE Missouri at MTSU · 7:30 PM ET
NC Central at Liberty · 7:30 PM ET
South Dakota at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
FDU at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
SIUE at Duke · 8:00 PM ET
Virginia at Maryland · 8:00 PM ET
C Arkansas at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
Milwaukee at TCU · 8:00 PM ET
GA Southern at UCF · 8:00 PM ET
Alcorn St at Tarleton St · 8:00 PM ET
Wright St at Samford · 8:00 PM ET
Illinois St at N Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
Texas Southern at Murray St · 8:00 PM ET
Southern Miss at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
Seton Hall at Alabama · 9:00 PM ET
Xavier vs Mississippi St · 9:00 PM ET
DePaul at Northwestern · 9:00 PM ET
Arizona at Auburn · 9:00 PM ET
Ball State at SMU · 9:00 PM ET
UL Monroe at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
Cal Poly at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
Stanford at UNLV · 9:00 PM ET
Chicago St at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
Miss Valley St at Oregon St · 9:30 PM ET
UIC at Saint Mary's · 10:00 PM ET
East Texas A&M at Portland · 10:00 PM ET
UC San Diego at Utah State · 10:00 PM ET
AR-Pine Bluff at CA Baptist · 10:30 PM ET

← Thu, Nov 12 · Sat, Nov 14 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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