North Carolina Central Eagles vs Liberty Flames basketball preview & prediction

Fri, Nov 13 · 7:30 PM ET · Liberty Arena (VA), Lynchburg, VA

Non-conferenceESPN+Liberty Arena (VA), Lynchburg, VA
NC Central
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #311
@
Liberty
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #145
Fri, Nov 13 · 7:30 PM ET
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Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, NC Central is the faster team (69.4, #223 of 365) and Liberty the slower (65.9, #314). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.4
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.1#281
NC Central
67.9#328
Liberty

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup
From the four factors
Liberty has the ball−5.8
NC Central has the ball−4.8
Liberty has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 42.0% #308 · NCCU allows 52.5% #213−3.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 23.7% #302 · NCCU allows 27.5% #118−3.0
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.7% #141 · NCCU forces 16.9% #210 · ~11 turnovers+1.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 26.8% #291 · NCCU allows 36.4% #179 · FT 66.7% #229−0.7
NC Central has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 19.7% #233 · LIB forces 19.7% #113 · ~13 turnovers−1.4
✗Few second chancesOR% 28.4% #242 · LIB allows 29.0% #141−1.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 27.2% #289 · LIB allows 21.1% #24 · FT 70.6% #165−1.2
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 45.2% #263 · LIB allows 54.4% #246−0.8

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot
NC Centraloffense vsLibertydefense
Share of shots by zone
NC Central shoots
Liberty allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim50.0%#26165.5%#26958.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)55.6%#6450.0%#24338.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.3%#16433.3%#15534.7%
Three31.4%#19730.0%#12632.5%
Libertyoffense vsNC Centraldefense
Share of shots by zone
Liberty shoots
NC Central allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.1%#16860.4%#20558.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)25.0%#25044.4%#22238.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.3%#17433.3%#15534.7%
Three19.2%#35231.5%#15932.5%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line
NC Central
−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#236 of 365
Off reb %
28.4%
#242
Def reb %
72.5%
#118
Turnover %
19.7%
#233
Forced TO %
16.9%
#210
FT rate
27.2%
#289
FT allowed
36.4%
#179
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding+1.4
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn−2.6
Foul shots allowed+0.4
Liberty
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#146 of 365
Off reb %
23.7%
#302
Def reb %
71.0%
#141
Turnover %
16.7%
#141
Forced TO %
19.7%
#113
FT rate
26.8%
#291
FT allowed
21.1%
#24
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.6
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn−2.8
Foul shots allowed+4.4

Liberty has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#146 of 365) to NC Central’s −3.7 (#236).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not
NC Central2026-27 numbers · last game: Longwood, Nov 7
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGMin/40, last 8Last 3 vs beforeStatusPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%Usage
23GSr6'6"2-236.535—Started last13.54.00.01.043.1%35.0%10.0100.0%25.2%
6GSr6'7"2-235.032—Started last10.08.51.51.535.0%0.0%1.075.0%22.0%
2GSr6'3"2-228.530—Started last14.02.56.03.556.3%66.7%1.571.4%30.1%
3FFr6'11"2-224.028—Started last2.05.01.00.525.0%0.0%1.00.0%11.5%
12FSr6'10"2-124.023—Started last11.05.01.01.555.6%—0.066.7%26.9%
8FJr6'9"2-115.011—Bench6.03.50.51.060.0%—0.0—22.7%
4GJr6'2"2-014.010—Bench3.51.51.03.533.3%0.0%1.075.0%30.2%
13FJr6'10"2-012.512—Bench4.00.50.00.566.7%50.0%2.0—16.1%
10GSr6'0"2-09.59—Bench4.01.00.00.557.1%0.0%0.5—24.2%
0FSr6'6"2-07.57—Bench0.00.50.00.5——0.0—3.8%
9GJr6'4"2-04.53—Bench0.50.50.00.00.0%0.0%0.550.0%37.2%
11GSo6'3"1-01.0——Active0.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home
NC CentralLiberty
Efficiency
99.5
108.9
110.2
107.5
69.1
67.9
2.9
10.5
Shooting
45.2%
42.0%
44.4%
53.3%
31.4%
19.2%
70.6%
66.7%
27.2%
26.8%
Ball control & glass
19.7%
16.7%
16.9%
19.7%
28.4%
23.7%
27.5%
29.0%
12.9%
13.7%
8.9%
20.0%
Style
28.0%
46.4%
51.1%
56.1%
12.4%
5.3%
43.1%
52.4%
31.0%
37.5%
Roster
3.44
2.25
6'6.6"
6'5.3"
3.1%
10.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
NC Central
Returning minutes: 3.1%Returning production: 2.1%
Lost
  • Gage Lattimore 35.7 mpg, 16.1 ppg · transferred to James Madison
  • Dionte Johnson 30.8 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kelechi Okworogwo 25.6 mpg, 8.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Tekao Carpenter 24.3 mpg, 6.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kyric Davis 21.8 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jae Slack 19.4 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Isaiah Buckley new to D1 · 40.0 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
  • Christian Meeks from Morgan St · 28.6 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season
  • Trey Brown from MD Eastern · 11.6 mpg, 2.8 ppg last season
  • Tyler Mason from Alabama St · 8.2 mpg, 3.5 ppg last season
  • Maurice Vassel from MD Eastern · 5.9 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
  • Daniel Mbaeteka new to D1 · 5.0 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season

Returns 3% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Liberty
Returning minutes: 10.5%Returning production: 7.4%
Lost
  • Zach Cleveland 33.9 mpg, 11.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Brett Decker Jr. 33.6 mpg, 16.9 ppg · transferred to Baylor
  • Kaden Metheny 32.9 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Colin Porter 32.3 mpg, 10.5 ppg · transferred to Marquette
  • JJ Harper 26.8 mpg, 10.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Josh Smith 14.9 mpg, 7.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Cooper Campbell from Troy · 33.8 mpg, 12.5 ppg last season
  • Cobi Campbell from Troy · 27.1 mpg, 8.8 ppg last season
  • Eli Sancomb no D1 minutes last season
  • Reece Davidson no D1 minutes last season
  • Osmar Garcia-Araujo no D1 minutes last season
  • Dillon Claussen no D1 minutes last season

Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Fri, Nov 13

← Thu, Nov 12 · Sat, Nov 14 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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