CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceRupp Arena, Lexington, KY

N Arizona

Efficiency #329

2025-26: 10-22 · 4-15 conf

Kentucky

Efficiency #27

2025-26: 22-14 · 12-9 conf

Fri, Nov 13 · TBD

63.9

win 5%

Projected

83.2

win 95%

No line posted yet.

Model: UK −19.3 · total 147.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Kentucky 68.9, N Arizona 66.0 → 66.5 possessions

−3.9

Kentucky offense vs N Arizona defense

+9.1

N Arizona offense vs Kentucky defense

−6.3

Projected total

147.1

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Kentucky offense vs N Arizona defense

+9.1

N Arizona offense vs Kentucky defense

+6.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Kentucky by 19.3

19.3

N Arizona side ◂▸ Kentucky side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +19.2 against +19.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kentucky.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kentucky is the faster team (69.7, #106 of 365) and N Arizona the slower (65.5, #317). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.1

model

Projected team totals

63.9 / 83.2

N Arizona / Kentucky

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.0#342

N Arizona

68.9#130

Kentucky

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageKentucky

Where Kentucky scores: shooting

Kentucky shoots an effective 53.3% (#87); N Arizona allows 56.9% (#355). Expect about 55.4%, 4.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.8 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageN Arizona

Where N Arizona struggles: the offensive glass

N Arizona rebounds 23.3% of its own misses (#348); Kentucky lets opponents grab 30.0% of their own misses (#158). Expect about 25.2%, 5.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions.

GlassKentucky

Kentucky owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.8% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for Kentucky's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (N Arizona's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect N Arizona at about 37.5% of its shots from three, Kentucky about 40.0%.

DefenseKentucky

Kentucky's shot-blocking

Kentucky ranks #34 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.4% of N Arizona's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

TurnoversN Arizona

N Arizona protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions for N Arizona's offense.

N Arizona has the ball

OffenseKentucky allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #161

48.9% #63

-1.4 pt/100

16.0% #141

15.5% #249

+1.5 pt/100

23.3% #348

30.0% #158

-3.1 pt/100

31.8% #260

36.4% #223

-0.1 pt/100

68.9% #304

—

-0.3 pt/100

N Arizona net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.4 pts/100

Kentucky has the ball

OffenseN Arizona allowsvs D1 avg

53.3% #87

56.9% #355

+5.8 pt/100

15.4% #96

16.6% #180

+1.1 pt/100

33.2% #84

33.4% #305

+2.1 pt/100

37.4% #119

32.7% #124

-0.0 pt/100

72.7% #179

—

+0.0 pt/100

Kentucky net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

N Arizonaoffense vsKentuckydefense

Share of shots by zone

N Arizona shoots

38.6

7.1

19.1

35.2

Kentucky allows

33.9

7.6

18.8

39.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.6%#284	57.3%#124	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.5%#31	42.8%#246	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.4%#101	39.3%#211	38.0%
Three	35.6%#79	31.8%#55	33.7%

Kentuckyoffense vsN Arizonadefense

Share of shots by zone

Kentucky shoots

37.5

6.8

17.0

38.7

N Arizona allows

42.8

5.2

11.7

40.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.1%#35	62.3%#307	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.4%#58	37.2%#115	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.5%#322	41.1%#278	38.0%
Three	34.2%#158	38.7%#362	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

N Arizona

−2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#300 of 365

Off reb %

23.3%

#348

Def reb %

66.6%

#305

Turnover %

16.0%

#141

Forced TO %

16.6%

#180

FT rate

31.8%

#260

FT allowed

32.7%

#124

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.3

Defensive rebounding−0.9

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers−0.1

Foul shots drawn−0.8

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Kentucky

+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#119 of 365

Off reb %

33.2%

#84

Def reb %

70.0%

#158

Turnover %

15.4%

#96

Forced TO %

15.5%

#249

FT rate

37.4%

#119

FT allowed

36.4%

#223

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.9

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers−0.8

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Kentucky has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#119 of 365) to N Arizona’s −2.9 (#300).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N Arizona2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N Arizona's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Ryan Abelman	G	Jr	6'4"	30-30	32.3	10.5	5.1	1.9	1.1	49.5%	36.1%	4.8	89.4%	20.3%
2	Chris Komin	G	Fr	6'3"	31-17	26.6	7.8	2.1	2.2	0.8	53.1%	35.7%	2.3	81.8%	17.3%
3	Traivar Jackson	F	Sr	6'7"	32-20	22.0	7.3	5.0	0.9	1.1	57.8%	—	0.0	64.8%	19.6%
9	Karl Poom	F	So	6'8"	32-2	19.6	8.9	3.3	1.2	1.7	54.2%	30.5%	1.8	54.4%	30.3%
7	Brennan Peterson	G	Fr	6'0"	32-16	19.4	4.8	0.7	2.0	0.8	56.5%	41.1%	2.8	71.4%	15.7%
24	Isaiah Shaw	G	Jr	6'8"	29-22	18.3	8.1	2.1	0.6	1.2	56.9%	46.4%	2.4	81.1%	25.1%
44	Arne Osojnik	G	Jr	6'6"	29-14	16.1	6.4	2.5	1.0	0.9	48.3%	32.4%	2.3	77.3%	26.8%
12	Diego Campisano	F	Sr	6'6"	26-9	17.8	7.0	2.4	0.5	0.5	52.1%	37.9%	3.7	76.9%	23.5%
22	Kavon Bradford	G	So	6'1"	28-12	16.2	5.3	1.6	1.7	1.3	44.9%	26.7%	0.5	65.6%	24.0%
5	Zack Davidson	F	So	6'9"	14-13	23.6	14.0	4.8	0.8	1.9	62.0%	25.0%	0.3	46.3%	33.1%
4	Oakland Fort	G	Sr	5'10"	29-5	11.1	3.1	0.8	1.5	0.5	57.3%	37.0%	0.9	50.0%	17.2%
82	Erez Poran	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	5.4	0.8	1.3	0.3	0.2	32.1%	14.3%	0.5	33.3%	15.0%
8	Walker Timme	F	Jr	6'7"	1-0	8.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	13.7%
0	JT Amundsen	G	Fr	5'8"	4-0	1.8	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.8	—	22.2%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Kentucky2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
22	Milan Momcilovicat Iowa State	F	Sr	6'9"	37-37	30.4	16.9	3.1	1.0	0.8	67.2%	48.7%	7.5	87.8%	25.0%
10	Alex Wilkinsat Furman	G	So	6'6"	35-35	29.7	17.8	2.0	4.7	3.8	52.8%	32.8%	5.7	82.4%	39.2%
5	Zoom Dialloat Washington	G	Jr	6'6"	33-29	29.6	15.7	3.9	4.5	2.5	51.7%	31.5%	2.2	82.5%	33.0%
21	Justin McBrideat James Madison	F	Sr	6'8"	31-30	27.1	15.3	5.6	1.5	1.8	54.9%	40.0%	3.1	78.2%	32.4%
1	Jerone Mortonat Washington St	G	Sr	6'4"	32-29	24.9	7.8	1.9	2.6	1.2	51.8%	38.8%	2.5	82.0%	18.8%
24	Malachi Moreno	C	So	7'0"	36-30	22.6	7.8	6.3	1.8	1.3	58.2%	0.0%	0.1	69.8%	19.1%
11	Franck Kepnangat Washington	C	Sr	7'0"	27-25	22.9	6.2	6.3	0.2	1.0	51.5%	0.0%	0.0	68.9%	17.2%
3	Kam Williams	G	Jr	6'7"	24-7	18.5	6.0	2.1	1.0	0.6	57.9%	35.9%	3.3	95.5%	17.0%
9	Trent Noah	F	Jr	6'6"	26-3	11.0	3.1	2.4	0.5	0.3	49.2%	33.3%	2.0	82.6%	16.2%
2	Braydon Hawthorne	F	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Reece Potter	F	Sr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
4	Mason Williams	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
19	Ousmane N'Diaye	F	—	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
0	Zyon Hawthorne	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Zoom Diallo (from Washington), Franck Kepnang (from Washington), Justin McBride (from James Madison), Milan Momcilovic (from Iowa State), Jerone Morton (from Washington St), Alex Wilkins (from Furman)

N Arizona2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N Arizona's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Ryan Abelman	G	Jr	6'4"	30-30	32.3	10.5	5.1	1.9	1.1	49.5%	36.1%	4.8	89.4%	20.3%
2	Chris Komin	G	Fr	6'3"	31-17	26.6	7.8	2.1	2.2	0.8	53.1%	35.7%	2.3	81.8%	17.3%
3	Traivar Jackson	F	Sr	6'7"	32-20	22.0	7.3	5.0	0.9	1.1	57.8%	—	0.0	64.8%	19.6%
9	Karl Poom	F	So	6'8"	32-2	19.6	8.9	3.3	1.2	1.7	54.2%	30.5%	1.8	54.4%	30.3%
7	Brennan Peterson	G	Fr	6'0"	32-16	19.4	4.8	0.7	2.0	0.8	56.5%	41.1%	2.8	71.4%	15.7%
24	Isaiah Shaw	G	Jr	6'8"	29-22	18.3	8.1	2.1	0.6	1.2	56.9%	46.4%	2.4	81.1%	25.1%
44	Arne Osojnik	G	Jr	6'6"	29-14	16.1	6.4	2.5	1.0	0.9	48.3%	32.4%	2.3	77.3%	26.8%
12	Diego Campisano	F	Sr	6'6"	26-9	17.8	7.0	2.4	0.5	0.5	52.1%	37.9%	3.7	76.9%	23.5%
22	Kavon Bradford	G	So	6'1"	28-12	16.2	5.3	1.6	1.7	1.3	44.9%	26.7%	0.5	65.6%	24.0%
5	Zack Davidson	F	So	6'9"	14-13	23.6	14.0	4.8	0.8	1.9	62.0%	25.0%	0.3	46.3%	33.1%
4	Oakland Fort	G	Sr	5'10"	29-5	11.1	3.1	0.8	1.5	0.5	57.3%	37.0%	0.9	50.0%	17.2%
82	Erez Poran	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	5.4	0.8	1.3	0.3	0.2	32.1%	14.3%	0.5	33.3%	15.0%
8	Walker Timme	F	Jr	6'7"	1-0	8.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	13.7%
0	JT Amundsen	G	Fr	5'8"	4-0	1.8	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.8	—	22.2%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

N Arizona

Against the spread

Season

14-15

Home

7-6

Road

6-8

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.5

Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 2 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-18

Home

6-7

Road

4-10

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −2.9

Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Idaho StAdjEM #253	N	L 65–73	+4.5	L−3.5	142.5	U138	98.2	110.3	66.2
Mar 2	Montana StAdjEM #130	H	L 65–76	+6.0	L−5.0	143.5	U141	106.6	124.6	61.0
Feb 28	E WashingtonAdjEM #189	A	L 57–88	+9.5	L−21.5	147.0	U145	89.7	138.6	63.5
Feb 26	IdahoAdjEM #156	A	L 58–78	+10.5	L−9.5	146.0	U136	95.6	128.6	60.7
Feb 21	N ColoradoAdjEM #146	A	L 77–78	+12.5	W+11.5	150.5	O155	115.6	117.1	66.6
Feb 14	Sacramento StAdjEM #280	H	W 79–74	−1.5	W+3.5	155.0	U153	111.2	104.2	71.0
Feb 12	Portland StAdjEM #145	H	L 68–77	+7.5	L−1.5	135.5	O145	107.6	121.8	63.2
Feb 7	Weber StAdjEM #203	A	L 53–72	+7.0	L−12.0	151.0	U125	90.3	122.6	58.7
Feb 5	Idaho StAdjEM #253	A	W 79–73	+8.0	W+14.0	141.5	O152	133.1	123.0	59.4
Jan 31	IdahoAdjEM #156	H	L 62–79	+5.5	L−11.5	147.0	U141	94.8	120.8	65.4

Kentucky

Against the spread

Season

18-18

Home

9-9

Road

5-5

Last 10

6-4

avg cover −0.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-18-1

Home

10-8

Road

4-5-1

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.5

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#2Iowa StateAdjEM #7	N	L 63–82	+4.5	L−14.5	146.5	U145	91.0	118.4	69.2
Mar 20	#10Santa ClaraAdjEM #33	N	W 89–84 OT	−3.5	W+1.5	157.5	O173	119.3	112.6	74.6
Mar 13	#4FloridaAdjEM #5	N	L 63–71	+10.0	W+2.0	160.5	U134	86.2	97.1	73.1
Mar 12	MissouriAdjEM #67	N	W 78–72	−3.5	W+2.5	149.5	O150	113.2	104.5	68.9
Mar 11	LSUAdjEM #72	N	W 87–82	−9.0	L−4.0	151.5	O169	123.9	116.8	70.2
Mar 7	#5FloridaAdjEM #5	H	L 77–84	+5.5	L−1.5	162.0	U161	107.6	117.3	71.6
Mar 3	Texas A&MAdjEM #43	A	L 85–96	+1.5	L−9.5	162.0	O181	112.7	127.3	75.4
Feb 28	#25VanderbiltAdjEM #12	H	W 91–77	−1.0	W+13.0	157.5	O168	133.7	113.2	68.0
Feb 24	South CarolinaAdjEM #123	A	W 72–63	−7.5	W+1.5	151.0	U135	100.3	87.7	71.8
Feb 21	AuburnAdjEM #41	A	L 74–75	+2.5	W+1.5	162.5	U149	104.6	106.0	70.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

N ArizonaKentucky

Efficiency

105.0

115.6

115.1

102.5

66.0

68.9

—

Shooting

51.7%

53.3%

50.7%

54.7%

35.6%

34.2%

68.9%

72.7%

31.8%

37.4%

Ball control & glass

16.0%

15.4%

16.6%

15.5%

23.3%

33.2%

33.4%

30.0%

8.4%

9.7%

8.9%

8.5%

Style

36.7%

39.7%

44.1%

44.7%

10.0%

19.2%

51.0%

56.9%

35.9%

34.9%

Roster

2.54

3.22

6'4.6"

6'7.8"

—

21.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

N Arizona

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted N Arizona's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Kentucky

Returning minutes: 21.4%Returning production: 21.9%

Lost

Otega Oweh 32.7 mpg, 18.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Denzel Aberdeen 30.6 mpg, 13.5 ppg · transferred to Florida
Collin Chandler 27.1 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Mouhamed Dioubate 18.6 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Brandon Garrison 16.2 mpg, 4.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Andrija Jelavic 14.0 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Milan Momcilovic from Iowa State · 30.4 mpg, 16.9 ppg last season
Alex Wilkins from Furman · 29.7 mpg, 17.8 ppg last season
Zoom Diallo from Washington · 29.6 mpg, 15.7 ppg last season
Justin McBride from James Madison · 25.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg last season
Jerone Morton from Washington St · 24.9 mpg, 7.8 ppg last season
Franck Kepnang from Washington · 18.8 mpg, 5.1 ppg last season

Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.