Texas Southern Tigers vs Murray State Racers basketball preview & prediction

Fri, Nov 13 · 8:00 PM ET · CFSB Center, Murray, KY

Non-conferenceESPN+CFSB Center, Murray, KY
Texas Southern
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #331
@
Murray St
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #78
Fri, Nov 13 · 8:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 77.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Murray St is the faster team (78.3, #26 of 365) and Texas Southern the slower (78.1, #29). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
77.8
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.9#59
Texas Southern
75.4#9
Murray St

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup
From the four factors
Murray St has the ball+16.0
Texas Southern has the ball−18.9
Murray St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 59.3% #43 · TXSO allows 60.2% #325+11.4
✓Wins second chancesOR% 33.8% #130 · TXSO allows 44.1% #339+3.7
✓Gets to the lineFTR 43.1% #103 · TXSO allows 51.6% #311 · FT 77.4% #69+1.6
✗Coughs it upTO% 19.1% #220 · TXSO forces 18.6% #148 · ~15 turnovers−0.7
Texas Southern has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 37.7% #342 · MUR allows 45.8% #92−10.6
✗Coughs it upTO% 17.9% #178 · MUR forces 28.1% #10 · ~19 turnovers−5.8
✗Few second chancesOR% 24.7% #284 · MUR allows 26.1% #85−3.5
✓Gets to the lineFTR 53.4% #37 · MUR allows 47.7% #286 · FT 65.1% #256+1.0

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot
Texas Southernoffense vsMurray Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Texas Southern shoots
Murray St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim51.6%#25150.0%#7558.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)50.0%#7557.1%#29538.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.0%#11723.1%#7634.7%
Three27.5%#25035.3%#23532.5%
Murray Stoffense vsTexas Southerndefense
Share of shots by zone
Murray St shoots
Texas Southern allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.2%#12467.9%#28458.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)25.0%#250100.0%#34838.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.4%#8950.0%#28534.7%
Three38.5%#7728.6%#9932.5%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line
Texas Southern
−5.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#250 of 365
Off reb %
24.7%
#284
Def reb %
55.9%
#339
Turnover %
17.9%
#178
Forced TO %
18.6%
#148
FT rate
53.4%
#37
FT allowed
51.6%
#311
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.3
Defensive rebounding−4.2
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn+4.2
Foul shots allowed−3.5
Murray St
+8.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#72 of 365
Off reb %
33.8%
#130
Def reb %
73.9%
#85
Turnover %
19.1%
#220
Forced TO %
28.1%
#10
FT rate
43.1%
#103
FT allowed
47.7%
#286
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding+1.8
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+7.1
Foul shots drawn+1.5
Foul shots allowed−2.5

Murray St has more extra scoring chances per game: +8.0 (#72 of 365) to Texas Southern’s −5.2 (#250).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not
Texas Southern2026-27 numbers · last game: LSU, Nov 6
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGMin/40, last 8Last 3 vs beforeStatusPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%Usage
32GSr6'6"2-233.533—Started last4.56.51.50.07.7%0.0%3.570.0%13.7%
1GSr6'0"2-230.535—Started last15.02.52.02.068.4%54.5%5.5100.0%21.2%
3GSo6'3"2-230.032—Started last12.01.02.03.016.1%0.0%3.577.8%39.7%
5GSr6'6"2-228.027—Started last6.58.00.03.036.7%50.0%1.050.0%21.3%
9GSo6'8"2-020.021—Bench5.51.50.00.050.0%16.7%3.066.7%13.6%
35FSr6'9"2-217.025—Started last5.51.50.02.042.9%—0.045.5%25.2%
2GJr6'6"2-013.011—Bench2.50.51.00.535.7%33.3%1.50.0%17.9%
12G—6'3"2-012.010—Bench3.51.51.51.550.0%50.0%1.066.7%20.4%
11GSo6'5"1-015.00—Missed last game7.02.02.01.033.3%0.0%1.050.0%32.8%
9FJr6'10"1-015.00—Missed last game13.03.00.02.091.7%100.0%1.0100.0%29.8%
0GJr6'2"1-02.03—Bench0.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Texas SouthernMurray St
Efficiency
99.0
112.2
111.8
104.2
72.9
75.4
13.2
-7.8
Shooting
37.7%
59.3%
35.9%
60.6%
27.5%
38.5%
65.1%
77.4%
53.4%
43.1%
Ball control & glass
17.9%
19.1%
18.6%
28.1%
24.7%
33.8%
44.1%
26.1%
9.6%
9.6%
16.7%
5.6%
Style
33.9%
42.3%
38.5%
42.8%
11.5%
24.6%
46.2%
57.1%
30.5%
41.5%
Roster
3.27
2.52
6'5"
6'6.3"
8.1%
27.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Texas Southern
Returning minutes: 21.2%Returning production: 15.4%
Lost
  • Zaire Hayes 25.5 mpg, 8.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Troy Hupstead 24.6 mpg, 12.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Bryce Roberts 24.6 mpg, 9.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Alex Anderson 22.0 mpg, 9.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaylen Wysinger 21.0 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Zytarious Mortle 18.2 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Karris Bilal from Louisiana · 13.2 mpg, 3.5 ppg last season
  • Ben Vungo from Jax State · 3.3 mpg, 1.0 ppg last season
  • Jason Kimbrough from Bowling Green · 2.9 mpg, 0.9 ppg last season
  • Xander Wedlow from St Bonaventure · 0.2 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
  • Josh Farmer no D1 minutes last season
  • Sayed Sayed no D1 minutes last season

Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Murray St
Returning minutes: 27.6%Returning production: 26.9%
Lost
  • Javon Jackson 25.6 mpg, 16.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Fredrick King 24.0 mpg, 12.7 ppg · transferred to Creighton
  • Layne Taylor 23.2 mpg, 7.5 ppg · transferred to Arkansas St
  • Mason Miller 22.1 mpg, 5.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • JJ Traynor 21.9 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • KJ Tenner 16.5 mpg, 6.0 ppg · transferred to UTSA
Added
  • Christian Jones from G Washington · 25.6 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
  • Shon Tupuola from Valparaiso · 24.6 mpg, 6.4 ppg last season
  • Brigham Rogers from Belmont · 18.2 mpg, 7.1 ppg last season
  • Kaden Magwood from Auburn · 5.6 mpg, 1.9 ppg last season
  • Mark Padjen no D1 minutes last season
  • Lachlan Crate no D1 minutes last season

Returns 28% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Fri, Nov 13

← Thu, Nov 12 · Sat, Nov 14 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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