Georgia State Panthers vs Fresno State Bulldogs basketball prediction & odds
Tue, Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ET · Save Mart Center, Fresno, CA
Non-conferenceYouTubeSave Mart Center, Fresno, CA
Georgia St
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #285
@
Fresno St
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #185
Live
71.777.8
Projected score
GAST win 30%FRES win 70%
MarketClose
Spread
FRES −6.0
open FRES −6.5
Total
145.5
open 149.5
Our line
FRES −6.1
as of Tue, Nov 10 · 8:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
from the market's opening number| Line | Market open | Our adjustment | Our line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | FRES −6.5 | 0.4 toward Georgia St | FRES −6.1 |
Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Georgia St is the faster team (69.0, #236 of 365) and Fresno St the slower (67.1, #290). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.7
per team, 40 min
Market total
145.5
Market close · open 149.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.1#143
Georgia St
70.2#213
Fresno St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
FRES −6.1
Four factors −2.9 · not in these stats +9.0
From the four factors
Fresno St has the ball+1.2
Georgia St has the ball+4.1
Fresno St has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 37.2% #85 · GAST allows 32.3% #200+1.9
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 44.9% #269 · GAST allows 55.4% #264−0.6
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 7.4% #358 · GAST allows 42.0% #234 · FT 80.0% #45−0.4
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 19.4% #227 · GAST forces 16.7% #222 · ~13 turnovers+0.3
Georgia St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 51.3% #165 · FRES allows 57.7% #306+4.4
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.7% #138 · FRES forces 11.9% #333 · ~9 turnovers+4.3
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 29.7% #259 · FRES allows 15.4% #6 · FT 54.3% #343−2.4
✗Few second chancesOR% 24.7% #286 · FRES allows 31.4% #186−2.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootGeorgia Stoffense vsFresno Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Georgia St shoots
27.4
11.1
13.7
47.9
Fresno St allows
48.4
9.7
4.8
37.1
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 40.6%#338 | 70.0%#303 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.5%#161 | 16.7%#45 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 50.0%#45 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 41.1%#53 | 36.0%#257 | 32.5% |
Fresno Stoffense vsGeorgia Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Fresno St shoots
37.7
4.9
0.0
57.4
Georgia St allows
48.2
8.0
8.9
34.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.5%#200 | 64.8%#260 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 66.7%#29 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | — | 30.0%#128 | 34.7% |
| Three | 24.3%#311 | 35.9%#255 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineGeorgia St
−5.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#255 of 365
Off reb %
24.7%
#286
Def reb %
67.7%
#200
Turnover %
16.7%
#138
Forced TO %
16.7%
#222
FT rate
29.7%
#259
FT allowed
42.0%
#234
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.3
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn−2.0
Foul shots allowed−1.0
Fresno St
−5.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#249 of 365
Off reb %
37.2%
#85
Def reb %
68.6%
#186
Turnover %
19.4%
#227
Forced TO %
11.9%
#333
FT rate
7.4%
#358
FT allowed
15.4%
#6
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers−4.3
Foul shots drawn−7.8
Foul shots allowed+5.9
Fresno St has more extra scoring chances per game: −5.2 (#249 of 365) to Georgia St’s −5.4 (#255).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notGeorgia St2026-27 numbers · last game: Charlotte, Nov 5
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | Jr | 6'0" | 3-3 | 36.0 | 40 | — | Started last | 17.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 56.7% | 37.5% | 13.3 | — | 25.3% | |
| 4 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-3 | 35.0 | 40 | — | Started last | 15.3 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 46.2% | 33.3% | 4.0 | 62.5% | 29.1% | |
| 12 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-3 | 34.7 | 38 | — | Started last | 12.7 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 40.0% | 19.0% | 7.0 | 76.9% | 23.7% | |
| 10 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 29.7 | 38 | — | Started last | 14.3 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 70.0% | 75.0% | 2.7 | 25.0% | 22.6% | |
| 0 | G | So | 6'6" | 3-2 | 24.0 | 26 | — | Started last | 13.0 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 80.6% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 58.8% | 22.4% | |
| 50 | C | Sr | 6'10" | 3-1 | 15.3 | 17 | — | Bench | 1.3 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 13.3% | |
| 15 | F | So | 6'7" | 2-0 | 15.0 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 44.4% | 0.0% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 19.1% | |
| 11 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 3-0 | 9.7 | 1 | — | Bench | 3.0 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 14.5% | |
| 2 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 1-0 | 12.0 | — | — | Active | 10.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 83.3% | 66.7% | 3.0 | — | 30.3% | |
| 32 | G | Fr | 6'0" | 1-0 | 5.0 | — | — | Active | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 20.8% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesGeorgia St
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-1
avg cover −2.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −6.2
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Andrew Fighting Tigers | H | W 111–61 | — | — | — | — | 143.7 | 79.0 | 77.2 |
| Nov 5 | Charlotte | A | L 67–77 | +11.5 | W+1.5 | 143.5 | O144 | 100.1 | 115.0 | 66.9 |
| Nov 2 | Bowling Green | H | L 73–76 | −3.5 | L−6.5 | 162.0 | U149 | 102.8 | 107.0 | 71.0 |
| Mar 3 | Louisiana | N | L 75–84 | −1.0 | L−10.0 | 134.0 | O159 | 108.3 | 121.3 | 69.3 |
| Feb 27 | Old Dominion | H | L 73–81 | +1.0 | L−7.0 | 149.5 | O154 | 99.1 | 109.9 | 73.7 |
| Feb 24 | Coastal | H | L 71–76 | +1.0 | L−4.0 | 141.0 | O147 | 105.9 | 113.3 | 67.1 |
| Feb 21 | James Madison | H | L 65–80 | +2.5 | L−12.5 | 142.5 | O145 | 97.0 | 119.4 | 67.0 |
| Feb 19 | GA Southern | H | W 66–64 | +1.0 | W+3.0 | 155.0 | U130 | 96.2 | 93.3 | 68.6 |
| Feb 14 | Old Dominion | A | L 55–78 | +4.0 | L−19.0 | 147.0 | U133 | 85.2 | 120.8 | 64.6 |
| Feb 12 | James Madison | A | L 79–81 OT | +6.0 | W+4.0 | 144.0 | O160 | 106.8 | 109.5 | 74.0 |
Fresno St
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −5.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −5.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | UC San Diego | A | L 65–81 | +11.0 | L−5.0 | 151.0 | U146 | 96.9 | 120.8 | 67.1 |
| Nov 2 | Fresno Pacific Sunbirds | H | W 88–79 | — | — | — | — | 113.4 | 101.8 | 77.6 |
| Mar 11 | Colorado St | N | L 63–67 | +7.5 | W+3.5 | 145.5 | U130 | 100.1 | 106.4 | 63.0 |
| Mar 7 | Grand Canyon | A | L 60–85 | +12.5 | L−12.5 | 150.0 | U145 | 82.6 | 117.0 | 72.7 |
| Mar 3 | San José St | H | W 82–68 | −7.5 | W+6.5 | 149.5 | O150 | 120.2 | 99.7 | 68.2 |
| Feb 28 | Boise St | H | L 53–69 | +7.0 | L−9.0 | 149.0 | U122 | 88.3 | 114.9 | 60.0 |
| Feb 24 | Colorado St | A | L 70–74 | +8.5 | W+4.5 | 148.5 | U144 | 105.0 | 111.0 | 66.7 |
| Feb 21 | New Mexico | H | L 78–80 | +9.0 | W+7.0 | 156.5 | O158 | 116.0 | 119.0 | 67.2 |
| Feb 17 | Wyoming | A | L 82–92 | +9.5 | L−0.5 | 147.5 | O174 | 125.6 | 140.9 | 65.3 |
| Feb 14 | Air Force | H | W 93–63 | −15.0 | W+15.0 | 142.0 | O156 | 127.5 | 86.4 | 72.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeGeorgia StFresno St
Efficiency
99.6
103.7
107.5
105.3
71.1
70.2
1.8
4.5
Shooting
51.3%
44.9%
41.9%
54.8%
41.1%
24.3%
54.3%
80.0%
29.7%
7.4%
Ball control & glass
16.7%
19.4%
16.7%
11.9%
24.7%
37.2%
32.3%
31.4%
9.4%
11.9%
6.5%
3.2%
Style
47.5%
54.4%
28.6%
52.3%
7.9%
7.7%
44.9%
53.8%
21.2%
18.3%
Roster
3.25
2.66
6'4.1"
6'5.9"
2.4%
0.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputGeorgia St
Returning minutes: 2.4%Returning production: 2.1%
Lost
- Malachi Brown 31.0 mpg, 12.3 ppg · transferred to W Carolina
- Micah Tucker 30.6 mpg, 13.1 ppg · transferred to Grand Canyon
- Jelani Hamilton 26.3 mpg, 15.0 ppg · transferred to FAU
- Anthony Enoh 20.8 mpg, 4.7 ppg · transferred to Kennesaw St
- Joah Chappelle 20.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Tulane
- Ayouba Berthe 16.9 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jaden Jackson from S Dakota St · 32.1 mpg, 12.3 ppg last season
- Eric Parnell from FDU · 25.7 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
- Jacob Meyer from UAB · 24.9 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
- Terrance Dixon Jr. from Southern · 20.5 mpg, 9.0 ppg last season
- Jacolb Fredson-Cole from McNeese · 18.7 mpg, 5.5 ppg last season
- Zion Wilburn from Samford · 16.0 mpg, 4.3 ppg last season
Returns 2% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (5 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Fresno St
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Jake Heidbreder 34.7 mpg, 15.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- DeShawn Gory 29.3 mpg, 13.7 ppg · transferred to Oregon St
- Wilson Jacques 27.4 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to DePaul
- Zaon Collins 24.9 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Ball State
- Cameron Faas 19.1 mpg, 5.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Bastien Rieber 16.4 mpg, 4.0 ppg · transferred to Niagara
Added
- Ross Candelino from Lipscomb · 21.8 mpg, 9.8 ppg last season
- Bradey Henige from CA Baptist · 19.6 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season
- Brian Amuneke from Wichita St · 7.9 mpg, 2.4 ppg last season
- Dragos Lungu from UT Martin · 4.7 mpg, 2.5 ppg last season
- Baye Fall from Rutgers · 1.4 mpg, 0.1 ppg last season
- Nathan Zulemie no D1 minutes last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -6.5→-5.5-118 | 148.5→145.5o-115 u-105 | -258 | +210 |
| FanDuel | -6.5→-5.5-114 | 149.5→146.5o-106 u-114 | -240 | +195 |
| BetMGM | -6.5→-5.5-118 | 148.5→146.5o-105 u-115 | -250 | +200 |
| BetRivers | -5.5-120 | 149.5→144.5o-117 u-107 | -265 | +205 |
| Caesars | -6-110 | 148.5→145.5o-110 u-110 | -267 | +215 |
| Fanatics | -7→-6-110 | 149.5→145.5o-110 u-110 | -260 | +210 |
| BetOnline | -6.5→-6-113 | 148.5→146o-111 u-109 | -255 | +211 |
| Bovada | -6-110 | 148.5→145.5o-110 u-110 | -270 | +220 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5-110 | 148.5→145.5o-115 u-105 | -250 | +210 |
| Hard Rock | -5.5-120 | 149.5→144.5o-115 u-105 | -260 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -6.5+113 | 148.5→146.5o+108 u-113 | -233 | +223 |
| Polymarket | -6.5+108 | 146.5o+108 u-113 | -245 | +233 |
| Novig | -5.5-108 | 145.5o+100 u-104 | -233 | +228 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Tue, Nov 10
- Florida at Florida St · 6:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at Georgetown · 6:30 PM ET
- NJIT at Rutgers · 6:30 PM ET
- Bryant at Providence · 7:00 PM ET
- Detroit Mercy at Xavier · 7:00 PM ET
- MD Eastern at Boston College · 7:00 PM ET
- Michigan St vs Duke · 7:00 PM ET
- Charleston So at Wake Forest · 7:00 PM ET
- Youngstown St at C Michigan · 7:00 PM ET
- Siena at Dayton · 7:00 PM ET
- Iona at Fordham · 7:00 PM ET
- Elon at G Washington · 7:00 PM ET
- Army at New Haven · 7:00 PM ET
- Wyoming at North Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- LMU at Troy · 7:00 PM ET
- Presbyterian at NC State · 7:00 PM ET
- Maine at Rhode Island · 7:00 PM ET
- E Kentucky at Georgia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Harvard at Northeastern · 7:00 PM ET
- Virginia Tech vs Iowa · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercer at GA Southern · 7:00 PM ET
- South Alabama at UCF · 7:00 PM ET
- La Salle at Villanova · 7:00 PM ET
- Winthrop at Kennesaw St · 7:00 PM ET
- Bradley at Davidson · 7:00 PM ET
- Washington St at Duquesne · 7:00 PM ET
- Wright St at Toledo · 7:00 PM ET
- Memphis at Vanderbilt · 7:15 PM ET
- Nicholls at Tulane · 7:30 PM ET
- Texas St at UT Rio Grande · 7:30 PM ET
- Evansville at MTSU · 7:30 PM ET
- Yale at Baylor · 8:00 PM ET
- Southern at Iowa State · 8:00 PM ET
- N Kentucky at Saint Louis · 8:00 PM ET
- Illinois at Texas Tech · 8:00 PM ET
- Prairie View at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
- Belmont at Lipscomb · 8:00 PM ET
- Hou Christian at South Dakota · 8:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Murray St · 8:00 PM ET
- UT Martin at Arkansas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Green Bay at Northern Iowa · 8:00 PM ET
- SE Louisiana at Ole Miss · 8:30 PM ET
- Fairfield at Wisconsin · 8:30 PM ET
- Creighton at Kansas St · 9:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Arizona · 9:00 PM ET
- San Diego at Colorado · 9:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at TCU · 9:00 PM ET
- Bucknell at Virginia · 9:00 PM ET
- Weber St at Utah · 9:00 PM ET
- Hofstra at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- Queens at BYU · 9:00 PM ET
- Little Rock at New Mexico · 9:00 PM ET
- Utah Tech at Utah State · 9:00 PM ET
- Kansas vs Kentucky · 9:30 PM ET
- Montana at San Francisco · 10:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.