CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceChaifetz Arena, St. Louis, MO

N Kentucky

Efficiency #164

2025-26: 20-14 · 12-11 conf

Saint Louis

Efficiency #20

2025-26: 29-6 · 16-4 conf

Tue, Nov 10 · TBD

72.8

win 11%

Projected

87.2

win 89%

No line posted yet.

Model: SLU −14.4 · total 160.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Saint Louis 70.7, N Kentucky 70.0 → 72.4 possessions

+8.9

Saint Louis offense vs N Kentucky defense

+6.5

N Kentucky offense vs Saint Louis defense

−3.7

Projected total

160.0

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Saint Louis offense vs N Kentucky defense

+6.5

N Kentucky offense vs Saint Louis defense

+3.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.2

Saint Louis by 14.4

14.4

N Kentucky side ◂▸ Saint Louis side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 159.9 against a projected 160.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Saint Louis.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Saint Louis is the faster team (72.1, #22 of 365) and N Kentucky the slower (70.9, #58). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

72.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

160.0

model

Projected team totals

72.8 / 87.2

N Kentucky / Saint Louis

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.0#49

N Kentucky

70.7#21

Saint Louis

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSaint Louis

Where Saint Louis scores: shooting

Saint Louis shoots an effective 59.7% (#2); N Kentucky allows 54.2% (#305). Expect about 57.7%, 6.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +9.1 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Track meet

Saint Louis averages 72.1 possessions per 40, N Kentucky 70.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageN Kentucky

Where N Kentucky struggles: shooting

N Kentucky shoots an effective 53.2% (#93); Saint Louis allows 45.2% (#3). Expect about 49.3%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Saint Louis, Saint Louis's defense, N Kentucky's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect N Kentucky at about 45.4% of its shots from three, Saint Louis about 43.1%.

TurnoversSaint Louis

Saint Louis turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Saint Louis's offense.

DefenseN Kentucky

N Kentucky's ball-hawking

N Kentucky ranks #30 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.2% of Saint Louis's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

N Kentucky has the ball

OffenseSaint Louis allowsvs D1 avg

53.2% #93

45.2% #3

-2.8 pt/100

16.3% #156

15.9% #224

+1.0 pt/100

32.2% #117

27.2% #43

-0.2 pt/100

35.9% #158

37.1% #242

+0.2 pt/100

72.1% #208

—

-0.0 pt/100

N Kentucky net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.8 pts/100

Saint Louis has the ball

OffenseN Kentucky allowsvs D1 avg

59.7% #2

54.2% #305

+9.1 pt/100

17.2% #217

18.6% #68

-1.7 pt/100

30.7% #173

31.6% #236

+0.5 pt/100

33.7% #221

37.2% #245

+0.1 pt/100

74.1% #128

—

+0.1 pt/100

Saint Louis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

N Kentuckyoffense vsSaint Louisdefense

Share of shots by zone

N Kentucky shoots

41.8

5.2

8.3

44.6

Saint Louis allows

38.4

7.1

12.5

42.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#102	48.0%#2	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.0%#104	35.0%#57	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.8%#264	37.0%#132	38.0%
Three	33.6%#193	30.3%#14	33.7%

Saint Louisoffense vsN Kentuckydefense

Share of shots by zone

Saint Louis shoots

46.6

4.8

3.8

44.8

N Kentucky allows

42.4

7.5

12.3

37.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.9%#76	58.4%#159	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.2%#99	45.6%#317	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.8%#317	38.8%#196	38.0%
Three	39.9%#2	36.6%#333	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

N Kentucky

+1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#116 of 365

Off reb %

32.2%

#117

Def reb %

68.4%

#236

Turnover %

16.3%

#156

Forced TO %

18.6%

#68

FT rate

35.9%

#158

FT allowed

37.2%

#245

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security+0.3

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn+0.2

Foul shots allowed−0.5

Saint Louis

−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#196 of 365

Off reb %

30.7%

#173

Def reb %

72.8%

#43

Turnover %

17.2%

#217

Forced TO %

15.9%

#224

FT rate

33.7%

#221

FT allowed

37.1%

#242

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.1

Defensive rebounding+1.1

Ball security−0.3

Forcing turnovers−0.5

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed−0.5

N Kentucky has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.6 (#116 of 365) to Saint Louis’s −0.4 (#196).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N Kentucky2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Dan Gherezgher	G	Sr	6'4"	34-29	29.5	15.9	3.2	2.7	2.3	53.4%	37.4%	7.7	73.4%	31.4%
8	Donovan Oday	G	Sr	6'2"	34-16	29.0	18.6	3.8	1.9	2.1	56.9%	33.0%	5.3	81.0%	32.7%
11	Tae Dozier	G	Sr	6'5"	34-29	28.9	8.6	5.2	2.3	0.9	58.2%	33.3%	3.5	66.7%	15.9%
6	Ethan Elliott	G	Fr	6'3"	32-31	28.5	5.1	2.8	4.6	1.4	39.2%	25.6%	2.6	48.6%	15.1%
24	Kael Robinson	F	Sr	6'7"	31-29	26.3	14.4	4.5	1.3	1.5	56.0%	39.2%	5.8	82.0%	28.8%
10	Donovan Rakotonanahary	G	Fr	6'6"	32-0	12.3	3.0	2.3	0.4	0.3	71.1%	33.3%	0.1	55.6%	11.3%
3	Shawn Nelson	G	Sr	6'3"	27-2	11.4	2.9	1.7	0.6	0.8	38.8%	17.6%	1.3	53.3%	20.9%
4	Bryce Darbyshire	G	So	6'4"	25-0	6.8	1.5	1.2	0.4	0.3	58.3%	38.9%	0.7	33.3%	13.0%
1	Ryan Tolliver	G	Fr	6'7"	22-1	6.7	1.0	1.7	0.3	0.4	47.1%	0.0%	0.1	77.8%	10.7%
12	Addison Archer	F	Jr	6'9"	20-0	6.2	1.0	1.3	0.2	0.3	43.3%	50.0%	0.1	70.0%	11.4%
26	Mitchel Minor	G	Sr	5'10"	4-0	1.5	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.3	116.7%	100.0%	0.3	—	33.1%
22	JJ Apathjang	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
17	Juanma Ruiz	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Saint Louis2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Quentin Jones	G	Jr	6'5"	35-33	26.5	9.1	3.9	3.0	1.9	52.3%	36.2%	2.7	80.0%	20.8%
3	Trey Green	G	So	6'0"	34-30	23.6	10.7	2.9	1.7	0.7	64.0%	44.2%	6.1	86.1%	20.7%
9	Ishan Sharma	F	So	6'5"	35-2	22.2	9.1	2.7	1.5	0.5	61.6%	41.7%	5.5	86.0%	19.0%
4	Amari McCottry	G	So	6'6"	34-31	22.9	10.5	5.3	2.9	2.4	55.1%	29.0%	1.8	58.2%	28.7%
0	Kellen Thames	G	Jr	6'6"	33-2	17.1	9.7	4.7	1.8	1.3	65.8%	25.0%	0.4	62.8%	28.3%
25	Paul Otieno	F	Sr	6'9"	35-4	15.3	5.3	3.9	0.9	0.6	60.0%	66.7%	0.1	77.5%	17.2%
15	Jax Kerr	F	Fr	6'11"	17-0	6.8	2.9	2.1	0.2	0.4	43.0%	18.5%	1.6	63.6%	28.8%
24	Cam Hutson	G	Fr	6'5"	18-0	5.4	1.8	0.9	0.2	0.8	39.3%	12.5%	0.9	71.4%	26.8%
5	Jaden Schertz	G	Jr	5'11"	12-1	3.2	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.2	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	15.5%
12	Isaac Holmes	G	Jr	6'4"	13-0	2.8	0.8	0.7	0.3	0.0	41.7%	22.2%	0.7	50.0%	18.7%
2	Badara Diakite	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Dylan Warlick	F	So	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Kalu Anya	F	Sr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Luke Laczkowski	G	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

N Kentucky2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Dan Gherezgher	G	Sr	6'4"	34-29	29.5	15.9	3.2	2.7	2.3	53.4%	37.4%	7.7	73.4%	31.4%
8	Donovan Oday	G	Sr	6'2"	34-16	29.0	18.6	3.8	1.9	2.1	56.9%	33.0%	5.3	81.0%	32.7%
11	Tae Dozier	G	Sr	6'5"	34-29	28.9	8.6	5.2	2.3	0.9	58.2%	33.3%	3.5	66.7%	15.9%
6	Ethan Elliott	G	Fr	6'3"	32-31	28.5	5.1	2.8	4.6	1.4	39.2%	25.6%	2.6	48.6%	15.1%
24	Kael Robinson	F	Sr	6'7"	31-29	26.3	14.4	4.5	1.3	1.5	56.0%	39.2%	5.8	82.0%	28.8%
10	Donovan Rakotonanahary	G	Fr	6'6"	32-0	12.3	3.0	2.3	0.4	0.3	71.1%	33.3%	0.1	55.6%	11.3%
3	Shawn Nelson	G	Sr	6'3"	27-2	11.4	2.9	1.7	0.6	0.8	38.8%	17.6%	1.3	53.3%	20.9%
4	Bryce Darbyshire	G	So	6'4"	25-0	6.8	1.5	1.2	0.4	0.3	58.3%	38.9%	0.7	33.3%	13.0%
1	Ryan Tolliver	G	Fr	6'7"	22-1	6.7	1.0	1.7	0.3	0.4	47.1%	0.0%	0.1	77.8%	10.7%
12	Addison Archer	F	Jr	6'9"	20-0	6.2	1.0	1.3	0.2	0.3	43.3%	50.0%	0.1	70.0%	11.4%
26	Mitchel Minor	G	Sr	5'10"	4-0	1.5	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.3	116.7%	100.0%	0.3	—	33.1%
22	JJ Apathjang	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
17	Juanma Ruiz	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

N Kentucky

Against the spread

Season

13-18

Home

7-7

Road

5-10

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

21-10

Home

9-5

Road

10-5

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +4.9

Over 4 straightOver in 5 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	Wright StAdjEM #119	N	L 90–103	+1.0	L−12.0	158.0	O193	114.7	131.3	78.5
Mar 8	Green BayAdjEM #222	N	W 96–76	−4.0	W+16.0	147.5	O172	145.5	115.2	66.0
Mar 4	OaklandAdjEM #172	A	W 85–84	+2.0	W+3.0	162.5	O169	116.5	115.1	73.0
Feb 28	Wright StAdjEM #119	H	L 91–92	−3.0	L−4.0	152.5	O183	130.0	131.4	70.0
Feb 25	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	A	W 81–70	−8.0	W+3.0	165.5	U151	112.2	97.0	72.2
Feb 22	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	A	L 58–64	+2.0	L−4.0	152.5	U122	78.4	86.5	73.9
Feb 18	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	H	W 87–71	−6.0	W+10.0	154.0	O158	122.1	99.7	71.2
Feb 12	IU IndyAdjEM #315	A	W 84–81	−6.0	L−3.0	164.5	O165	118.8	114.6	70.7
Feb 7	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	H	W 67–62	−7.0	L−2.0	156.5	U129	107.1	99.1	62.6
Feb 4	Green BayAdjEM #222	H	L 84–87 OT	−8.0	L−11.0	150.5	O171	111.3	115.3	75.5

Saint Louis

Against the spread

Season

19-14-1

Home

13-5

Road

4-6

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −6.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

17-16-1

Home

10-8

Road

4-5-1

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.5

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 72–95	+12.0	L−11.0	160.5	O167	102.1	134.7	70.5
Mar 19	#8GeorgiaAdjEM #32	N	W 102–77	+1.5	W+26.5	167.5	O179	127.8	96.5	79.8
Mar 14	DaytonAdjEM #62	N	L 69–70	−5.0	L−6.0	145.5	U139	100.8	102.3	68.4
Mar 13	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	N	W 88–81	−6.5	W+0.5	162.5	O169	118.2	108.8	74.4
Mar 7	George MasonAdjEM #83	A	L 57–86	−7.0	L−36.0	147.0	U143	90.6	136.6	62.9
Mar 4	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #309	H	W 79–65	−21.5	L−7.5	155.0	U144	132.9	109.4	59.4
Feb 28	DuquesneAdjEM #131	H	W 91–76	−13.5	W+1.5	160.0	O167	138.6	115.7	65.7
Feb 24	DaytonAdjEM #62	A	L 62–77	−3.5	L−18.5	157.5	U139	89.3	110.9	69.4
Feb 20	VCUAdjEM #39	H	W 88–75	−7.5	W+5.5	164.5	U163	114.1	97.3	77.1
Feb 17	Rhode IslandAdjEM #137	A	L 76–81	−9.5	L−14.5	152.0	O157	101.9	108.6	74.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

N KentuckySaint Louis

Efficiency

109.4

117.2

108.8

102.5

70.0

70.7

—

Shooting

53.2%

59.7%

55.5%

59.5%

33.6%

39.9%

72.1%

74.1%

35.9%

33.7%

Ball control & glass

16.3%

17.2%

18.6%

15.9%

32.2%

30.7%

31.6%

27.2%

8.8%

10.1%

7.7%

11.2%

Style

44.9%

45.1%

44.6%

44.4%

20.1%

18.7%

55.5%

60.4%

27.3%

39.3%

Roster

3.18

2.52

6'4.3"

6'5"

85.4%

66.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

N Kentucky

Returning minutes: 85.4%Returning production: 81.3%

Lost

LJ Wells 29.4 mpg, 14.5 ppg · transferred to Louisville

Added

Juanma Ruiz no D1 minutes last season
JJ Apathjang no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Saint Louis

Returning minutes: 66.8%Returning production: 64.6%

Lost

Robbie Avila 26.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Dion Brown 23.7 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Brady Dunlap 16.4 mpg, 6.8 ppg · transferred to Georgia

Added

Dylan Warlick no D1 minutes last season
Luke Laczkowski no D1 minutes last season
Kalu Anya no D1 minutes last season
Badara Diakite no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 67% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.