Winthrop Eagles vs Kennesaw State Owls basketball prediction & odds
Tue, Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET · VyStar Arena, Kennesaw, GA
Non-conferenceESPN+VyStar Arena, Kennesaw, GA
Winthrop
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #182
@
Kennesaw St
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #153
Live
79.288.3
Projected score
WIN win 22%KENN win 78%
MarketClose
Spread
KENN −10.0
open KENN −9.5
Total
169.0
open 167.5
Our line
KENN −9.1
as of Tue, Nov 10 · 6:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
from the market's opening number| Line | Market open | Our adjustment | Our line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | KENN −9.5 | 0.4 toward Winthrop | KENN −9.1 |
Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 76.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Winthrop is the faster team (77.2, #37 of 365) and Kennesaw St the slower (75.0, #64). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
76.5
per team, 40 min
Market total
169.0
Market close · open 167.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
73.9#35
Winthrop
73.2#52
Kennesaw St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
KENN −9.1
Four factors 1.3Not in these stats 7.8
From the four factors
Kennesaw St has the ball+4.3
Winthrop has the ball+3.0
Kennesaw St has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 35.0% #110 · WIN allows 37.0% #280+2.4
✓Shoots it welleFG% 47.4% #233 · WIN allows 55.8% #275+1.2
✓Gets to the lineFTR 50.9% #49 · WIN allows 51.5% #310 · FT 58.6% #326+0.7
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 24.0% #325 · WIN forces 12.9% #316 · ~14 turnovers+0.1
Winthrop has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 18.8% #206 · KENN forces 13.3% #307 · ~12 turnovers+2.6
✓Shoots it welleFG% 62.1% #19 · KENN allows 40.7% #32+2.1
✗Few second chancesOR% 37.5% #77 · KENN allows 18.6% #12−1.0
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 25.0% #309 · KENN allows 50.8% #303 · FT 55.9% #336−0.7
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootWinthropoffense vsKennesaw Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Winthrop shoots
39.4
10.6
3.8
46.2
Kennesaw St allows
40.7
8.5
11.9
39.0
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 67.3%#81 | 41.7%#19 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 21.4%#273 | 60.0%#305 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 80.0%#9 | 28.6%#116 | 34.7% |
| Three | 42.9%#35 | 26.1%#61 | 32.5% |
Kennesaw Stoffense vsWinthropdefense
Share of shots by zone
Kennesaw St shoots
50.9
1.8
0.0
47.4
Winthrop allows
51.5
6.9
5.4
36.2
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.1%#125 | 70.1%#307 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 0.0%#323 | 44.4%#222 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | — | 28.6%#116 | 34.7% |
| Three | 22.2%#333 | 27.7%#88 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineWinthrop
−10.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#319 of 365
Off reb %
37.5%
#77
Def reb %
63.0%
#280
Turnover %
18.8%
#206
Forced TO %
12.9%
#316
FT rate
25.0%
#309
FT allowed
51.5%
#310
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.0
Defensive rebounding−1.8
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers−3.6
Foul shots drawn−3.2
Foul shots allowed−3.5
Kennesaw St
−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#206 of 365
Off reb %
35.0%
#110
Def reb %
81.4%
#12
Turnover %
24.0%
#325
Forced TO %
13.3%
#307
FT rate
50.9%
#49
FT allowed
50.8%
#303
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding+4.3
Ball security−4.1
Forcing turnovers−3.4
Foul shots drawn+3.5
Foul shots allowed−3.4
Kennesaw St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.8 (#206 of 365) to Winthrop’s −10.6 (#319).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notWinthrop2026-27 numbers · last game: North Dakota, Nov 7
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | G | So | 6'1" | 2-2 | 34.5 | 34 | — | Started last | 22.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 81.5% | 52.2% | 11.5 | 0.0% | 24.4% | |
| 3 | G | So | 6'1" | 2-2 | 32.0 | 34 | — | Started last | 9.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 2.5 | 57.1% | 19.8% | |
| 45 | G | So | 6'7" | 2-2 | 30.0 | 25 | — | Started last | 23.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 82.0% | 53.8% | 6.5 | 75.0% | 28.2% | |
| 25 | G | Jr | 6'8" | 2-2 | 27.5 | 28 | — | Started last | 7.5 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 38.2% | 16.7% | 3.0 | 33.3% | 20.6% | |
| 8 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 25.0 | 23 | — | Bench | 14.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 65.0% | 42.9% | 7.0 | 66.7% | 24.3% | |
| 13 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 2-2 | 21.5 | 12 | — | Started last | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 55.6% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 25.5% | |
| 6 | G | Jr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 9.5 | 12 | — | Bench | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 24.8% | |
| 21 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 2-0 | 8.5 | 16 | — | Bench | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 15.2% | |
| 0 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 6.0 | 6 | — | Bench | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 30.3% | |
| 2 | F | Fr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 10 | — | Bench | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 14.5% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesWinthrop
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −6.5
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-0
avg vs total +28.2
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | North Dakota | H | L 90–93 | −8.5 | L−11.5 | 160.0 | O183 | 120.5 | 124.5 | 74.7 |
| Nov 2 | Queens | N | L 98–103 | +3.5 | L−1.5 | 167.5 | O201 | 122.8 | 129.1 | 79.8 |
| Mar 8 | High Point | N | L 76–91 | +7.0 | L−8.0 | 157.5 | O167 | 96.9 | 116.0 | 78.5 |
| Mar 7 | Presbyterian | N | W 73–71 | −6.5 | L−4.5 | 145.0 | U144 | 106.4 | 103.4 | 68.6 |
| Mar 6 | Charleston So | N | W 86–81 | −5.5 | L−0.5 | 163.5 | O167 | 111.2 | 104.8 | 77.3 |
| Feb 28 | Presbyterian | H | W 74–70 | −9.0 | L−5.0 | 150.5 | U144 | 105.3 | 99.6 | 70.3 |
| Feb 26 | Charleston So | A | L 84–86 | −8.0 | L−10.0 | 164.0 | O170 | 104.9 | 107.4 | 80.1 |
| Feb 21 | High Point | A | L 87–89 | +9.5 | W+7.5 | 166.5 | O176 | 117.8 | 120.5 | 73.9 |
| Feb 19 | SC Upstate | H | W 68–64 | −13.0 | L−9.0 | 155.0 | U132 | 101.2 | 95.3 | 67.2 |
| Feb 12 | Gardner-Webb | A | W 103–85 | −20.5 | L−2.5 | 155.0 | O188 | 134.4 | 110.9 | 76.7 |
Kennesaw St
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −4.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −21.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | Austin Peay | H | W 71–69 | −6.0 | L−4.0 | 161.0 | U140 | 94.7 | 92.0 | 75.0 |
| Nov 2 | Midway Eagles | H | W 116–57 | — | — | — | — | 142.7 | 70.1 | 81.3 |
| Mar 19 | #3Gonzaga | N | L 64–73 | +20.5 | W+11.5 | 151.5 | U137 | 92.6 | 105.6 | 69.1 |
| Mar 14 | Louisiana Tech | N | W 71–60 | +1.0 | W+12.0 | 142.0 | U131 | 110.1 | 93.1 | 64.5 |
| Mar 13 | Sam Houston | N | W 79–73 | +2.0 | W+8.0 | 159.5 | U152 | 113.4 | 104.8 | 69.7 |
| Mar 12 | Western KY | N | W 96–87 | +1.0 | W+10.0 | 159.5 | O183 | 124.6 | 113.0 | 77.0 |
| Mar 7 | New Mexico St | A | L 76–79 | +1.0 | L−2.0 | 157.5 | U155 | 112.5 | 116.9 | 67.6 |
| Mar 5 | UTEP | A | L 71–78 | −3.5 | L−10.5 | 149.0 | P149 | 94.7 | 104.1 | 74.9 |
| Feb 28 | Delaware | H | W 90–82 | −12.0 | L−4.0 | 143.0 | O172 | 129.4 | 117.9 | 69.5 |
| Feb 26 | Liberty | H | W 74–65 | −1.0 | W+8.0 | 152.5 | U139 | 116.9 | 102.7 | 63.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeWinthropKennesaw St
Efficiency
109.3
105.4
110.8
104.6
73.9
73.2
-6.3
2.0
Shooting
62.1%
47.4%
60.3%
60.0%
42.9%
22.2%
55.9%
58.6%
25.0%
50.9%
Ball control & glass
18.8%
24.0%
12.9%
13.3%
37.5%
35.0%
37.0%
18.6%
11.7%
17.3%
8.2%
3.3%
Style
46.3%
47.4%
43.6%
50.7%
16.0%
14.1%
49.3%
58.3%
27.3%
53.1%
Roster
2.68
2.17
6'5.2"
6'6.4"
10.6%
30.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputWinthrop
Returning minutes: 11.1%Returning production: 9.8%
Lost
- Kody Clouet 29.0 mpg, 13.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kareem Rozier 28.8 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Logan Duncomb 22.9 mpg, 17.2 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame
- Daylen Berry 20.2 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isaiah Wilson 19.8 mpg, 3.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Josh Meo 18.3 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Micah Davis from IU Indy · 25.4 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
- Spence Sims from Gardner-Webb · 23.8 mpg, 9.6 ppg last season
- George Natsvlishvili from North Dakota · 18.7 mpg, 7.8 ppg last season
- Anthony Smith III from North Dakota · 17.2 mpg, 7.6 ppg last season
- Keshawn Fisher from Detroit Mercy · 7.1 mpg, 3.4 ppg last season
- Kyle Morgan no D1 minutes last season
Returns 11% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Kennesaw St
Returning minutes: 30.9%Returning production: 27.7%
Lost
- RJ Johnson 27.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
- Braedan Lue 26.6 mpg, 10.9 ppg · transferred to Tennessee
- Frankquon Sherman 25.2 mpg, 10.4 ppg · transferred to High Point
- Simeon Cottle 14.8 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaden Harris 13.9 mpg, 4.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ramone Seals 11.2 mpg, 4.8 ppg · transferred to FIU
Added
- Jacoby Hill from Jax State · 30.5 mpg, 10.0 ppg last season
- Avery Thomas II from Louisiana Tech · 24.4 mpg, 8.8 ppg last season
- Anthony Enoh from Georgia St · 20.8 mpg, 4.7 ppg last season
- CJ Beaumont from Sam Houston · 9.0 mpg, 2.9 ppg last season
- Kris Parker from UCF · 3.9 mpg, 1.2 ppg last season
- Keriawn Berry no D1 minutes last season
Returns 31% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -9.5→-10.5-102 | 166.5→169.5o-115 u-105 | -575 | +425 |
| FanDuel | -9.5→-10.5-106 | 167.5→170.5o-110 u-110 | -610 | +440 |
| BetMGM | -9.5→-10.5-105 | 166.5→169.5o-115 u-105 | -550 | +400 |
| BetRivers | -9.5→-10.5-108 | 166.5→170.5o-109 u-114 | -560 | +370 |
| Caesars | -9.5→-10-110 | 166.5→170o-110 u-110 | -550 | +400 |
| Fanatics | -9.5→-10.5-110 | 167→170o-110 u-110 | -575 | +420 |
| BetOnline | -10.5→-10-115 | 166→170o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -9.5→-10-110 | 166.5→169.5o-115 u-105 | -550 | +390 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5→-9.5-125 | 166.5→170.5o-110 u-110 | -650 | +425 |
| Hard Rock | -9.5→-10.5-105 | 166.5→170.5o-110 u-110 | -550 | +375 |
| Kalshi | -9.5-108 | 170.5o+104 u-113 | -488 | +426 |
| Polymarket | -9.5-108 | 169.5o-108 u+100 | -488 | +456 |
| Novig | -9.5-108 | 169.5o-106 u+100 | -471 | +441 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Tue, Nov 10
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.