UT Martin Skyhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves basketball prediction & odds
Tue, Nov 10 · 8:00 PM ET · First National Bank Arena, Jonesboro, AR
Non-conferenceESPN+First National Bank Arena, Jonesboro, AR
UT Martin
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #177
@
Arkansas St
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #130
Live
71.580.0
Projected score
UTM win 23%ARST win 77%
MarketClose
Spread
ARST −5.5
open ARST −8.5
Total
155.5
open 151.5
Our line
ARST −8.5
as of Tue, Nov 10 · 7:52 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
from the market's opening number| Line | Market open | Our adjustment | Our line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ARST −8.5 | none | ARST −8.5 |
Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 72.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Arkansas St is the faster team (80.4, #14 of 365) and UT Martin the slower (68.9, #239). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
72.5
per team, 40 min
Market total
155.5
Market close · open 151.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.6#335
UT Martin
75.4#8
Arkansas St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
ARST −8.5
Four factors −1.5 · not in these stats +10.0
From the four factors
Arkansas St has the ball+0.8
UT Martin has the ball+2.3
Arkansas St has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 18.0% #181 · UTM forces 10.3% #347 · ~9 turnovers+4.6
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 47.9% #223 · UTM allows 48.4% #137−2.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 26.7% #292 · UTM allows 54.7% #326 · FT 43.6% #358−1.2
✗Few second chancesOR% 34.0% #127 · UTM allows 27.2% #111−0.2
UT Martin has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 36.2% #94 · ARST allows 41.2% #323+3.5
✗Coughs it upTO% 23.2% #316 · ARST forces 18.6% #145 · ~15 turnovers−2.8
✓Shoots it welleFG% 58.4% #47 · ARST allows 44.6% #74+1.9
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 43.7% #98 · ARST allows 34.2% #154 · FT 63.5% #276−0.3
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootUT Martinoffense vsArkansas Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
UT Martin shoots
36.1
6.7
10.1
47.1
Arkansas St allows
28.1
6.5
13.7
51.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 74.4%#21 | 51.3%#92 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.5%#165 | 44.4%#222 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 25.0%#245 | 47.4%#281 | 34.7% |
| Three | 37.5%#87 | 27.3%#82 | 32.5% |
Arkansas Stoffense vsUT Martindefense
Share of shots by zone
Arkansas St shoots
41.7
4.5
3.0
50.8
UT Martin allows
33.6
9.4
13.3
43.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 45.5%#315 | 58.1%#176 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 16.7%#299 | 41.7%#215 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 75.0%#12 | 47.1%#280 | 34.7% |
| Three | 34.2%#143 | 28.6%#99 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineUT Martin
−8.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#298 of 365
Off reb %
36.2%
#94
Def reb %
72.8%
#111
Turnover %
23.2%
#316
Forced TO %
10.3%
#347
FT rate
43.7%
#98
FT allowed
54.7%
#326
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding+1.5
Ball security−3.5
Forcing turnovers−5.5
Foul shots drawn+1.6
Foul shots allowed−4.4
Arkansas St
−3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#235 of 365
Off reb %
34.0%
#127
Def reb %
58.8%
#323
Turnover %
18.0%
#181
Forced TO %
18.6%
#145
FT rate
26.7%
#292
FT allowed
34.2%
#154
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding−3.2
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn−2.8
Foul shots allowed+1.0
Arkansas St has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.6 (#235 of 365) to UT Martin’s −8.7 (#298).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notUT Martin2026-27 numbers · last game: IU Indy, Nov 7
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-1 | 32.0 | 24 | — | Bench | 15.0 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 47.6% | 20.0% | 5.0 | 76.9% | 36.4% | |
| 27 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 2-1 | 28.5 | 18 | — | Started last | 6.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 12.1% | |
| 22 | G | So | 6'5" | 2-2 | 28.0 | 31 | — | Started last | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 37.5% | 40.0% | 2.5 | 100.0% | 12.3% | |
| 1 | G | So | 6'3" | 2-1 | 27.0 | 29 | — | Started last | 21.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 63.0% | 50.0% | 6.0 | 75.0% | 42.5% | |
| 6 | G | Fr | 6'11" | 2-2 | 26.5 | 13 | — | Started last | 11.0 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 73.3% | 46.2% | 6.5 | 0.0% | 18.1% | |
| 31 | F | So | 6'8" | 2-2 | 20.5 | 23 | — | Started last | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 77.8% | 50.0% | 2.0 | 57.1% | 21.6% | |
| 9 | G | Fr | 6'7" | 2-0 | 19.5 | 10 | — | Bench | 2.5 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 83.3% | 100.0% | 0.5 | — | 12.0% | |
| 4 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 17.0 | 16 | — | Bench | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 45.8% | 20.0% | 2.5 | 50.0% | 23.7% | |
| 11 | G | Fr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 14.0 | 20 | — | Bench | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 56.3% | 25.0% | 2.0 | 33.3% | 23.4% | |
| 10 | F | Fr | 6'10" | 2-1 | 11.0 | 15 | — | Bench | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 42.9% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 28.6% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesUT Martin
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +1.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +14.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | IU Indy | A | L 74–75 | −1.0 | L−2.0 | 171.0 | U149 | 106.2 | 107.6 | 69.7 |
| Nov 2 | Tulane | A | L 98–100 2OT | +6.0 | W+4.0 | 147.0 | O198 | 114.9 | 117.3 | 85.3 |
| Mar 6 | Tennessee St | N | L 55–68 | +2.0 | L−11.0 | 137.5 | U123 | 90.1 | 111.4 | 61.1 |
| Mar 5 | E Illinois | N | W 66–63 | −8.0 | L−5.0 | 126.0 | O129 | 106.7 | 101.8 | 61.9 |
| Feb 28 | Tennessee St | H | L 42–67 | −2.5 | L−27.5 | 143.5 | U109 | 63.6 | 101.5 | 66.0 |
| Feb 26 | Tennessee Tech | H | W 64–49 | −7.0 | W+8.0 | 133.5 | U113 | 97.0 | 74.2 | 66.0 |
| Feb 19 | Little Rock | A | L 65–67 | −2.5 | L−4.5 | 136.0 | U132 | 109.0 | 112.3 | 59.6 |
| Feb 17 | SE Missouri | H | L 53–56 OT | −2.5 | L−5.5 | 138.5 | U109 | 74.2 | 78.4 | 71.5 |
| Feb 14 | SIUE | A | W 81–76 | −1.5 | W+3.5 | 130.0 | O157 | 119.7 | 112.3 | 67.7 |
| Feb 12 | Lindenwood | A | L 74–75 | +1.0 | P0.0 | 145.5 | O149 | 106.8 | 108.2 | 69.3 |
Arkansas St
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +4.2
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −8.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | #20Alabama | A | L 86–101 | +26.0 | W+11.0 | 178.0 | O187 | 100.6 | 118.1 | 85.5 |
| Nov 2 | Toledo | H | W 71–70 | −3.5 | L−2.5 | 166.0 | U141 | 94.2 | 92.9 | 75.4 |
| Mar 5 | GA Southern | N | L 77–80 | −7.5 | L−10.5 | 166.0 | U157 | 112.0 | 116.4 | 68.7 |
| Feb 27 | Louisiana | H | W 81–58 | −14.0 | W+9.0 | 146.5 | U139 | 107.1 | 76.7 | 75.7 |
| Feb 24 | Southern Miss | H | W 89–84 | −9.0 | L−4.0 | 158.0 | O173 | 112.8 | 106.4 | 78.9 |
| Feb 21 | UL Monroe | A | W 102–94 | −15.5 | L−7.5 | 164.0 | O196 | 131.2 | 120.9 | 77.8 |
| Feb 19 | Louisiana | A | W 79–62 | −9.0 | W+8.0 | 145.0 | U141 | 114.9 | 90.2 | 68.8 |
| Feb 14 | South Alabama | H | L 88–92 OT | −7.5 | L−11.5 | 150.0 | O180 | 115.3 | 120.6 | 76.3 |
| Feb 11 | UL Monroe | H | W 103–70 | −21.0 | W+12.0 | 163.0 | O173 | 139.2 | 94.6 | 74.0 |
| Feb 7 | Bowling Green | H | W 91–54 | −3.5 | W+33.5 | 155.0 | U145 | 121.0 | 71.8 | 75.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUT MartinArkansas St
Efficiency
102.9
105.8
104.1
103.4
67.6
75.4
-7.2
11.4
Shooting
58.4%
47.9%
60.3%
44.3%
37.5%
34.2%
63.5%
43.6%
43.7%
26.7%
Ball control & glass
23.2%
18.0%
10.3%
18.6%
36.2%
34.0%
27.2%
41.2%
12.9%
9.3%
6.3%
11.4%
Style
47.1%
52.1%
40.7%
36.9%
14.5%
22.9%
61.0%
59.6%
45.5%
37.1%
Roster
1.34
2.53
6'7"
6'4.9"
18.2%
5.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUT Martin
Returning minutes: 18.2%Returning production: 11.6%
Lost
- Andrija Bukumirovic 28.4 mpg, 13.3 ppg · transferred to Boston College
- Matas Deniusas 25.9 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to Rhode Island
- Filip Radakovic 22.3 mpg, 7.9 ppg · transferred to Lamar
- Afan Trnka 21.0 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to S Indiana
- Pedro Santos 17.3 mpg, 6.5 ppg · transferred to UAlbany
- Damien King 12.7 mpg, 4.1 ppg · transferred to Le Moyne
Added
- Davi Remagen from Georgia Tech · 3.7 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
- Nikas Stuknys no D1 minutes last season
- Armandas Bancevicius no D1 minutes last season
- Reid Conley no D1 minutes last season
- Ousseynou Sambe no D1 minutes last season
- Gabrielius Bubnys no D1 minutes last season
Returns 18% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Arkansas St
Returning minutes: 5.5%Returning production: 4.6%
Lost
- Christian Harmon 27.5 mpg, 12.8 ppg · transferred to Virginia
- Chandler Jackson 26.9 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jalen Hampton 24.6 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaxon Ellingsworth 22.7 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Matt Hayman 22.0 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- T.J. Caldwell 20.2 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to UAB
Added
- Layne Taylor from Murray St · 23.2 mpg, 7.5 ppg last season
- Jordan Pyke from Incarnate Word · 22.1 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Amadou Doumbia from NC A&T · 12.6 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
- Tameron Ferguson no D1 minutes last season
- Grayson Bennett no D1 minutes last season
- Rho Omed no D1 minutes last season
Returns 5% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -7.5→-5.5-118 | 151.5→155.5o-110 u-110 | -258 | +210 |
| FanDuel | -7.5→-5.5-120 | 151.5→154.5o-115 u-105 | -255 | +205 |
| BetMGM | -7.5→-6.5-102 | 151.5→155.5o-105 u-115 | -275 | +220 |
| BetRivers | -6.5→-5.5-115 | 153.5→154.5o-115 u-108 | -265 | +205 |
| Caesars | -7→-5.5-110 | 151.5→155.5o-110 u-110 | -250 | +205 |
| Fanatics | -8→-6-110 | 151.5→155.5o-110 u-110 | -245 | +200 |
| BetOnline | -8.5→-5.5-115 | 151.5→155o-116 u-104 | -250 | +207 |
| Bovada | -6.5→-6-105 | 152.5→155.5o-110 u-110 | -250 | +210 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5→-5.5-110 | 152.5→155.5o-110 u-110 | -250 | +210 |
| Hard Rock | -6.5→-5.5-115 | 153.5→154.5o-115 u-105 | -260 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -7.5+113 | 151.5→156.5o+108 u-113 | -257 | +245 |
| Polymarket | -7.5→-6.5-104 | 151.5→154.5o-117 u+108 | -245 | +233 |
| Novig | -7.5→-6.5-106 | 151.5→155.5o-106 u-102 | -251 | +245 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Tue, Nov 10
- Florida at Florida St · 6:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at Georgetown · 6:30 PM ET
- NJIT at Rutgers · 6:30 PM ET
- Bryant at Providence · 7:00 PM ET
- Detroit Mercy at Xavier · 7:00 PM ET
- MD Eastern at Boston College · 7:00 PM ET
- Michigan St vs Duke · 7:00 PM ET
- Charleston So at Wake Forest · 7:00 PM ET
- Youngstown St at C Michigan · 7:00 PM ET
- Siena at Dayton · 7:00 PM ET
- Iona at Fordham · 7:00 PM ET
- Elon at G Washington · 7:00 PM ET
- Army at New Haven · 7:00 PM ET
- Wyoming at North Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- LMU at Troy · 7:00 PM ET
- Presbyterian at NC State · 7:00 PM ET
- Maine at Rhode Island · 7:00 PM ET
- E Kentucky at Georgia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Harvard at Northeastern · 7:00 PM ET
- Virginia Tech vs Iowa · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercer at GA Southern · 7:00 PM ET
- South Alabama at UCF · 7:00 PM ET
- La Salle at Villanova · 7:00 PM ET
- Winthrop at Kennesaw St · 7:00 PM ET
- Bradley at Davidson · 7:00 PM ET
- Washington St at Duquesne · 7:00 PM ET
- Wright St at Toledo · 7:00 PM ET
- Memphis at Vanderbilt · 7:15 PM ET
- Nicholls at Tulane · 7:30 PM ET
- Texas St at UT Rio Grande · 7:30 PM ET
- Evansville at MTSU · 7:30 PM ET
- Yale at Baylor · 8:00 PM ET
- Southern at Iowa State · 8:00 PM ET
- N Kentucky at Saint Louis · 8:00 PM ET
- Illinois at Texas Tech · 8:00 PM ET
- Prairie View at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
- Belmont at Lipscomb · 8:00 PM ET
- Hou Christian at South Dakota · 8:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Murray St · 8:00 PM ET
- Green Bay at Northern Iowa · 8:00 PM ET
- SE Louisiana at Ole Miss · 8:30 PM ET
- Fairfield at Wisconsin · 8:30 PM ET
- Creighton at Kansas St · 9:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Arizona · 9:00 PM ET
- San Diego at Colorado · 9:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at TCU · 9:00 PM ET
- Bucknell at Virginia · 9:00 PM ET
- Weber St at Utah · 9:00 PM ET
- Hofstra at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- Queens at BYU · 9:00 PM ET
- Little Rock at New Mexico · 9:00 PM ET
- Utah Tech at Utah State · 9:00 PM ET
- Georgia St at Fresno St · 9:00 PM ET
- Kansas vs Kentucky · 9:30 PM ET
- Montana at San Francisco · 10:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.