CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceJohn Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA

Bucknell

Efficiency #334

2025-26: 10-23 · 7-13 conf

Virginia

Efficiency #15

2025-26: 30-6 · 17-4 conf

Tue, Nov 10 · TBD

60.9

win 3%

Projected

82.7

win 97%

No line posted yet.

Model: UVA −21.8 · total 143.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Virginia 67.1, Bucknell 68.1 → 66.9 possessions

−3.0

Virginia offense vs Bucknell defense

+8.2

Bucknell offense vs Virginia defense

−9.8

Projected total

143.6

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Virginia offense vs Bucknell defense

+8.2

Bucknell offense vs Virginia defense

+9.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Virginia by 21.8

21.8

Bucknell side ◂▸ Virginia side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +21.9 against +21.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Virginia.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bucknell is the faster team (66.9, #247 of 365) and Virginia the slower (66.4, #276). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

143.6

model

Projected team totals

60.9 / 82.7

Bucknell / Virginia

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.1#202

Bucknell

67.1#278

Virginia

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageBucknell

Where Bucknell struggles: shooting

Bucknell shoots an effective 48.5% (#304); Virginia allows 45.7% (#8). Expect about 46.8%, 4.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.3 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseVirginia

Virginia's shot-blocking

Virginia ranks #2 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 15.7% of Bucknell's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageVirginia

Where Virginia scores: shooting

Virginia shoots an effective 54.6% (#49); Bucknell allows 54.7% (#323). Expect about 55.0%, 3.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.3 points per 100 possessions.

GlassVirginia

Virginia owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 36.0% is worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions for Virginia's offense.

ClashVirginia

Style match: ball movement

Virginia assists on 58.3% of its made baskets; Bucknell allows assists on 61.8% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 62.3% — both habits push the same way.

ClashVirginia

Style match: 3-point volume

Virginia takes 46.7% of its shots from three; Bucknell lets opponents take 45.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 49.2% — both habits push the same way.

Bucknell has the ball

OffenseVirginia allowsvs D1 avg

48.5% #304

45.7% #8

-6.3 pt/100

19.0% #320

15.4% #255

-0.5 pt/100

27.0% #295

29.2% #120

-1.8 pt/100

29.8% #314

32.9% #129

-0.5 pt/100

76.8% #35

—

+0.4 pt/100

Bucknell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.8 pts/100

Virginia has the ball

OffenseBucknell allowsvs D1 avg

54.6% #49

54.7% #323

+5.3 pt/100

16.0% #140

17.9% #99

-0.3 pt/100

37.9% #9

31.3% #216

+3.4 pt/100

32.3% #253

35.3% #186

-0.1 pt/100

72.8% #177

—

+0.0 pt/100

Virginia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Bucknelloffense vsVirginiadefense

Share of shots by zone

Bucknell shoots

39.5

6.2

12.0

42.2

Virginia allows

34.2

7.9

21.0

36.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.8%#201	50.9%#7	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.2%#265	38.6%#150	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.5%#336	35.7%#97	38.0%
Three	30.6%#328	31.6%#46	33.7%

Virginiaoffense vsBucknelldefense

Share of shots by zone

Virginia shoots

36.0

6.7

10.5

46.7

Bucknell allows

33.5

6.5

13.6

46.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#105	60.3%#245	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.3%#59	45.5%#309	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.6%#164	40.7%#268	38.0%
Three	36.2%#48	37.0%#344	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Bucknell

−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#310 of 365

Off reb %

27.0%

#295

Def reb %

68.7%

#216

Turnover %

19.0%

#320

Forced TO %

17.9%

#99

FT rate

29.8%

#314

FT allowed

35.3%

#186

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security−1.5

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed0.0

Virginia

+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#79 of 365

Off reb %

37.9%

Def reb %

70.8%

#120

Turnover %

16.0%

#140

Forced TO %

15.4%

#255

FT rate

32.3%

#253

FT allowed

32.9%

#129

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.4

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers−0.9

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Virginia has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.5 (#79 of 365) to Bucknell’s −3.4 (#310).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bucknell2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Achile Spadone	G	Sr	6'4"	33-33	34.8	12.4	6.1	1.9	1.9	47.3%	29.7%	4.4	79.2%	23.9%
2	Jayden Williams	G	So	5'10"	33-33	32.6	7.5	2.9	4.0	1.8	39.4%	31.0%	3.5	82.8%	18.7%
22	Amon Dorries	C	Fr	6'11"	33-32	32.5	16.2	4.4	1.4	2.7	57.8%	33.3%	2.5	78.8%	29.2%
3	Aleksander Pachucki	G	So	6'5"	33-10	20.7	5.9	2.8	0.8	0.7	53.9%	35.9%	3.5	69.6%	17.5%
21	Pat Curtin	G	Fr	6'3"	27-19	25.1	12.8	4.3	1.5	1.8	47.8%	26.9%	4.4	80.2%	33.4%
4	Ruot Bijiek	F	Sr	6'9"	12-11	28.8	11.8	5.2	0.8	2.6	44.2%	28.4%	6.2	85.4%	29.2%
1	Jacob Meachem	G	Fr	5'8"	30-0	10.4	1.5	0.5	1.6	1.0	27.4%	25.0%	0.4	77.3%	17.5%
23	Grgur Brcic	C	Jr	6'10"	18-8	16.9	4.3	4.8	0.4	0.7	56.9%	—	0.0	46.2%	16.2%
10	Brandon McCreesh	G	Jr	6'4"	8-8	27.6	7.4	3.1	1.6	0.8	52.9%	37.5%	4.0	62.5%	16.2%
0	Patrick O'Brien	F	Jr	6'8"	21-3	9.8	2.2	1.2	0.1	0.2	39.7%	16.7%	0.9	70.4%	15.1%
5	Josh Fulton	G	Sr	6'6"	8-0	10.9	2.3	2.4	1.3	1.0	75.0%	0.0%	0.1	85.7%	12.7%
7	Matt Lange	G	So	6'2"	8-0	2.5	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.1	150.0%	100.0%	0.1	25.0%	11.0%
32	Kellen Welch	F	So	6'7"	10-0	1.9	0.5	0.7	0.1	0.0	28.6%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	23.9%
11	Brady Muller	F	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Virginia2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
30	Dallin Hall	G	Sr	6'4"	36-36	28.4	5.9	3.6	4.4	1.3	50.9%	32.0%	2.9	81.3%	14.3%
28	Thijs De Ridder	F	Fr	6'9"	36-36	27.7	15.6	6.2	1.6	1.8	55.9%	35.7%	3.1	70.9%	32.5%
5	Sam Lewis	G	Jr	6'7"	36-35	25.6	10.6	3.6	1.4	1.3	55.9%	40.3%	4.3	75.0%	24.7%
2	Chance Mallory	G	Fr	5'10"	36-0	24.1	9.3	3.7	3.4	1.1	50.6%	34.5%	3.1	77.5%	23.3%
17	Johann Grunloh	C	Fr	7'0"	36-36	21.0	7.1	5.2	0.6	0.8	59.0%	35.0%	1.7	55.7%	19.5%
11	Devin Tillis	F	Sr	6'7"	31-1	15.9	4.1	2.7	1.5	0.8	50.5%	37.5%	2.1	78.3%	17.7%
12	Elijah Gertrude	G	So	6'4"	17-0	6.2	1.7	0.8	0.6	0.2	45.2%	14.3%	0.8	33.3%	20.6%
7	Martin Carrere	G	Fr	6'9"	16-0	4.0	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.4	42.3%	16.7%	0.4	50.0%	19.3%
35	Carter Lang	F	So	6'9"	12-0	2.2	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.0	35.7%	33.3%	0.3	0.0%	18.1%
13	Desmond Roberts	G	So	6'4"	12-0	1.5	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	9.9%
22	Owen Odom	G	Fr	6'1"	11-0	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.1	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	25.2%
21	Silas Barksdale	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bucknell2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Achile Spadone	G	Sr	6'4"	33-33	34.8	12.4	6.1	1.9	1.9	47.3%	29.7%	4.4	79.2%	23.9%
2	Jayden Williams	G	So	5'10"	33-33	32.6	7.5	2.9	4.0	1.8	39.4%	31.0%	3.5	82.8%	18.7%
22	Amon Dorries	C	Fr	6'11"	33-32	32.5	16.2	4.4	1.4	2.7	57.8%	33.3%	2.5	78.8%	29.2%
3	Aleksander Pachucki	G	So	6'5"	33-10	20.7	5.9	2.8	0.8	0.7	53.9%	35.9%	3.5	69.6%	17.5%
21	Pat Curtin	G	Fr	6'3"	27-19	25.1	12.8	4.3	1.5	1.8	47.8%	26.9%	4.4	80.2%	33.4%
4	Ruot Bijiek	F	Sr	6'9"	12-11	28.8	11.8	5.2	0.8	2.6	44.2%	28.4%	6.2	85.4%	29.2%
1	Jacob Meachem	G	Fr	5'8"	30-0	10.4	1.5	0.5	1.6	1.0	27.4%	25.0%	0.4	77.3%	17.5%
23	Grgur Brcic	C	Jr	6'10"	18-8	16.9	4.3	4.8	0.4	0.7	56.9%	—	0.0	46.2%	16.2%
10	Brandon McCreesh	G	Jr	6'4"	8-8	27.6	7.4	3.1	1.6	0.8	52.9%	37.5%	4.0	62.5%	16.2%
0	Patrick O'Brien	F	Jr	6'8"	21-3	9.8	2.2	1.2	0.1	0.2	39.7%	16.7%	0.9	70.4%	15.1%
5	Josh Fulton	G	Sr	6'6"	8-0	10.9	2.3	2.4	1.3	1.0	75.0%	0.0%	0.1	85.7%	12.7%
7	Matt Lange	G	So	6'2"	8-0	2.5	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.1	150.0%	100.0%	0.1	25.0%	11.0%
32	Kellen Welch	F	So	6'7"	10-0	1.9	0.5	0.7	0.1	0.0	28.6%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	23.9%
11	Brady Muller	F	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Bucknell

Against the spread

Season

14-19

Home

5-9

Road

7-10

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −3.1

Covered 2 straightCovered 3 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-20-1

Home

5-8-1

Road

7-10

Last 10

4-5-1

avg vs total −0.8

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	NavyAdjEM #104	A	L 69–74	+14.5	W+9.5	132.5	O143	110.1	118.1	62.7
Mar 3	ArmyAdjEM #336	H	W 65–55	−2.0	W+8.0	144.0	U120	97.2	82.2	66.9
Feb 28	LehighAdjEM #273	A	L 79–89	+4.5	L−5.5	139.5	O168	116.3	131.1	67.9
Feb 25	ArmyAdjEM #336	A	W 75–73	+3.5	W+5.5	142.5	O148	103.6	100.8	72.4
Feb 22	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	H	L 63–72	−2.5	L−11.5	141.5	U135	95.7	109.4	65.8
Feb 18	AmericanAdjEM #234	H	L 57–75	+3.0	L−15.0	140.5	U132	88.1	115.9	64.7
Feb 14	Boston UAdjEM #237	A	L 69–82	+5.5	L−7.5	137.0	O151	105.6	125.5	65.3
Feb 9	NavyAdjEM #104	H	L 60–76	+6.5	L−9.5	136.0	P136	86.7	109.9	69.2
Feb 7	ColgateAdjEM #223	H	L 59–78	+5.0	L−14.0	141.5	U137	80.4	106.3	73.4
Feb 4	AmericanAdjEM #234	A	W 60–59	+8.0	W+9.0	142.0	U119	101.4	99.7	59.2

Virginia

Against the spread

Season

17-18-1

Home

9-8

Road

5-5

Last 10

3-6-1

avg cover −0.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 0 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-19

Home

6-11

Road

4-6

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +3.5

Over 6 straightOver in 5 of 7 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#6TennesseeAdjEM #13	N	L 72–79	+1.0	L−6.0	136.5	O151	109.8	120.5	65.5
Mar 20	#14Wright StAdjEM #119	N	W 82–73	−18.0	L−9.0	146.5	O155	126.3	112.4	64.9
Mar 14	#1DukeAdjEM #2	N	L 70–74	+6.5	W+2.5	139.5	O144	110.1	116.4	63.5
Mar 13	MiamiAdjEM #30	N	W 84–62	−3.5	W+18.5	145.0	O146	134.6	99.3	62.4
Mar 12	NC StateAdjEM #34	N	W 81–74	−7.0	P0.0	152.0	O155	118.2	108.0	68.5
Mar 7	Virginia TechAdjEM #61	H	W 76–72	−12.0	L−8.0	146.5	O148	114.6	108.5	66.3
Mar 3	Wake ForestAdjEM #76	H	W 75–70	−14.0	L−9.0	149.5	U145	110.3	102.9	68.0
Feb 28	#1DukeAdjEM #2	A	L 51–77	+10.0	L−16.0	143.0	U128	83.7	126.4	60.9
Feb 24	NC StateAdjEM #34	H	W 90–61	−6.0	W+23.0	152.0	U151	128.0	86.7	70.3
Feb 21	MiamiAdjEM #30	H	W 86–83	−7.5	L−4.5	146.5	O169	132.7	128.1	64.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

BucknellVirginia

Efficiency

101.2

117.4

111.7

101.2

68.1

67.1

—

Shooting

48.5%

54.6%

50.4%

54.9%

30.6%

36.2%

76.8%

72.8%

29.8%

32.3%

Ball control & glass

19.0%

16.0%

17.9%

15.4%

27.0%

37.9%

31.3%

29.2%

11.1%

9.6%

11.5%

10.0%

Style

42.7%

46.7%

43.4%

40.8%

9.9%

14.1%

54.0%

58.3%

24.0%

38.2%

Roster

2.30

2.24

6'4.5"

6'6"

92.5%

72.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Bucknell

Returning minutes: 92.5%Returning production: 96.3%

Lost

Quin Berger 15.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg · transferred to Miami

Added

Brady Muller no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Virginia

Returning minutes: 72.1%Returning production: 68.7%

Lost

Malik Thomas 22.7 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ugonna Onyenso 18.7 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jacari White 15.4 mpg, 8.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Silas Barksdale no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.