Green Bay Phoenix vs Northern Iowa Panthers basketball prediction & odds
Tue, Nov 10 · 8:00 PM ET · McLeod Center, Cedar Falls, IA
Non-conferenceESPN+McLeod Center, Cedar Falls, IA
Green Bay
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #166
@
Northern Iowa
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #113
Live
73.377.2
Projected score
GB win 37%UNI win 63%
MarketClose
Spread
UNI −3.5
open UNI −3.5
Total
151.0
open 150.5
Our line
UNI −3.9
as of Tue, Nov 10 · 7:52 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
from the market's opening number| Line | Market open | Our adjustment | Our line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNI −3.5 | 0.4 toward Northern Iowa | UNI −3.9 |
Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Northern Iowa is the faster team (75.0, #66 of 365) and Green Bay the slower (67.2, #283). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.6
per team, 40 min
Market total
151.0
Market close · open 150.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.3#347
Green Bay
69.8#231
Northern Iowa
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
UNI −3.9
Four factors −6.9 · not in these stats +10.8
From the four factors
Northern Iowa has the ball+2.7
Green Bay has the ball+9.6
Northern Iowa has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 12.0% #24 · GB forces 17.1% #207 · ~9 turnovers+3.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 26.2% #272 · GB allows 29.5% #148−1.9
✓Gets to the lineFTR 27.5% #283 · GB allows 49.5% #295 · FT 84.2% #18+1.1
✓Shoots it welleFG% 48.6% #202 · GB allows 52.4% #212+0.1
Green Bay has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 52.8% #141 · UNI allows 62.0% #336+7.1
✓Gets to the lineFTR 32.4% #228 · UNI allows 81.5% #359 · FT 74.3% #116+2.2
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 22.3% #297 · UNI forces 12.0% #330 · ~11 turnovers+1.3
✗Few second chancesOR% 30.0% #207 · UNI allows 28.6% #132−1.0
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootGreen Bayoffense vsNorthern Iowadefense
Share of shots by zone
Green Bay shoots
32.6
11.6
7.4
48.4
Northern Iowa allows
29.4
2.0
5.9
62.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 51.6%#251 | 53.3%#115 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 72.7%#24 | 100.0%#348 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 85.7%#6 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 30.8%#213 | 45.5%#344 | 32.5% |
Northern Iowaoffense vsGreen Baydefense
Share of shots by zone
Northern Iowa shoots
38.3
6.7
11.7
43.3
Green Bay allows
39.1
12.0
1.1
47.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.9%#136 | 63.9%#249 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 0.0%#323 | 27.3%#97 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 28.6%#224 | 0.0%#1 | 34.7% |
| Three | 31.0%#209 | 31.4%#157 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineGreen Bay
−7.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#283 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#207
Def reb %
70.5%
#148
Turnover %
22.3%
#297
Forced TO %
17.1%
#207
FT rate
32.4%
#228
FT allowed
49.5%
#295
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.5
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security−2.9
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed−3.0
Northern Iowa
−14.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#345 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#272
Def reb %
71.4%
#132
Turnover %
12.0%
#24
Forced TO %
12.0%
#330
FT rate
27.5%
#283
FT allowed
81.5%
#359
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.8
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+4.4
Forcing turnovers−4.3
Foul shots drawn−2.6
Foul shots allowed−11.3
Green Bay has more extra scoring chances per game: −7.7 (#283 of 365) to Northern Iowa’s −14.5 (#345).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notGreen Bay2026-27 numbers · last game: St Thomas, Nov 8
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | F | Sr | 6'6" | 3-3 | 29.3 | 37 | — | Started last | 10.0 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 47.7% | 35.7% | 4.7 | 81.8% | 20.2% | |
| 0 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 3-3 | 27.3 | 37 | — | Started last | 11.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 65.2% | — | 0.0 | 40.0% | 24.9% | |
| 7 | G | Jr | 6'8" | 3-1 | 22.3 | 32 | — | Started last | 10.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 48.0% | 33.3% | 4.0 | 87.5% | 32.4% | |
| 24 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 3-2 | 18.7 | 23 | — | Bench | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 86.7% | 61.5% | 4.3 | — | 15.8% | |
| 2 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-2 | 18.0 | 21 | — | Started last | 9.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 45.5% | 20.0% | 3.3 | 88.9% | 30.7% | |
| 23 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 16.3 | 10 | — | Bench | 9.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 83.3% | 55.6% | 3.0 | 66.7% | 23.7% | |
| 20 | C | So | 7'0" | 3-3 | 12.3 | 13 | — | Started last | 1.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 6.3% | |
| 4 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 3-0 | 10.7 | 8 | — | Bench | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 66.7% | 8.1% | |
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 9.0 | 6 | — | Bench | 3.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 57.1% | 50.0% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 21.8% | |
| 6 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 8.7 | 4 | — | Bench | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 50.0% | 26.7% | |
| 22 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 3-1 | 7.3 | 1 | — | Bench | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 25.1% | |
| 3 | G | So | 6'3" | 2-0 | 9.5 | — | — | Active | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 3.0 | — | 22.0% | |
| 31 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 13.0 | — | — | Missed last | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 15.9% | |
| 36 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 4.3 | — | — | Active | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 75.0% | 26.8% | |
| 5 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 8.0 | — | — | Missed last | 6.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 60.0% | 40.0% | 5.0 | — | 37.1% | |
| 21 | G | So | 6'4" | 1-0 | 7.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesGreen Bay
Against the spread
Season
2-0
Home
0-0
Road
2-0
Last 10
2-0
avg cover +12.2
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
0-2
Home
0-0
Road
0-2
Last 10
0-2
avg vs total −7.5
Under 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | St Thomas | A | W 76–67 | +7.5 | W+16.5 | 150.0 | U143 | 113.2 | 99.8 | 67.2 |
| Nov 5 | Cincinnati | A | L 64–81 | +25.0 | W+8.0 | 153.0 | U145 | 95.1 | 120.4 | 67.3 |
| Nov 2 | Lawrence Vikings | H | W 94–51 | — | — | — | — | 138.0 | 74.9 | 68.1 |
| Mar 8 | N Kentucky | N | L 76–96 | +4.0 | L−16.0 | 147.5 | O172 | 115.2 | 145.5 | 66.0 |
| Mar 3 | Purdue FW | H | W 64–56 | −4.5 | W+3.5 | 145.0 | U120 | 110.6 | 96.7 | 57.9 |
| Feb 28 | Youngstown St | H | W 85–63 | −1.5 | W+20.5 | 142.0 | O148 | 130.0 | 96.4 | 65.4 |
| Feb 22 | Detroit Mercy | A | L 70–74 | +1.0 | L−3.0 | 147.5 | U144 | 101.4 | 107.2 | 69.0 |
| Feb 20 | Oakland | A | W 73–68 | +6.5 | W+11.5 | 153.5 | U141 | 115.7 | 107.8 | 63.1 |
| Feb 15 | Milwaukee | A | L 72–75 | +2.5 | L−0.5 | 145.5 | O147 | 117.0 | 121.8 | 61.6 |
| Feb 12 | Purdue FW | H | W 76–59 | −1.5 | W+15.5 | 144.5 | U135 | 129.0 | 100.1 | 58.9 |
Northern Iowa
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −9.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +30.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Furman | A | L 83–98 | +5.5 | L−9.5 | 150.5 | O181 | 110.7 | 130.7 | 75.0 |
| Nov 3 | Cornell (IA) Rams | H | W 106–70 | — | — | — | — | 118.8 | 78.4 | 89.3 |
| Mar 20 | #5St John's | N | L 53–79 | +10.5 | L−15.5 | 133.5 | U132 | 84.0 | 125.2 | 63.1 |
| Mar 8 | UIC | N | W 84–69 | −3.0 | W+12.0 | 124.5 | O153 | 141.8 | 116.5 | 59.2 |
| Mar 7 | Bradley | N | W 73–69 | −4.5 | L−0.5 | 126.5 | O142 | 115.3 | 108.9 | 63.3 |
| Mar 6 | Illinois St | N | W 74–52 | −2.0 | W+20.0 | 129.5 | U126 | 118.9 | 83.5 | 62.3 |
| Mar 5 | Evansville | N | W 68–59 | −15.0 | L−6.0 | 128.5 | U127 | 108.3 | 94.0 | 62.8 |
| Mar 1 | Drake | A | W 75–53 | −4.0 | W+18.0 | 137.5 | U128 | 119.1 | 84.2 | 63.0 |
| Feb 25 | Illinois St | H | L 69–71 | −5.0 | L−7.0 | 132.0 | O140 | 111.1 | 114.3 | 62.1 |
| Feb 21 | S Illinois | H | L 57–59 | −6.5 | L−8.5 | 134.5 | U116 | 92.9 | 96.2 | 61.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeGreen BayNorthern Iowa
Efficiency
109.2
107.1
109.4
102.1
67.3
69.8
6.7
3.9
Shooting
52.8%
48.6%
58.9%
50.0%
30.8%
31.0%
74.3%
84.2%
32.4%
27.5%
Ball control & glass
22.3%
12.0%
17.1%
12.0%
30.0%
26.2%
29.5%
28.6%
8.9%
8.0%
14.3%
7.5%
Style
48.1%
42.0%
38.6%
45.8%
10.7%
12.0%
55.1%
37.9%
45.2%
49.5%
Roster
3.27
2.54
6'5.7"
6'5.4"
31.7%
9.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputGreen Bay
Returning minutes: 31.7%Returning production: 27.7%
Lost
- Preston Ruedinger 35.3 mpg, 11.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- C.J. O'Hara 32.6 mpg, 14.1 ppg · transferred to Wright St
- Justin Allen 25.6 mpg, 13.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Caden Wilkins 21.5 mpg, 6.9 ppg · transferred to St Thomas
- Ramel Bethea 11.5 mpg, 3.3 ppg · transferred to The Citadel
- Vukasin Todorovic 5.9 mpg, 1.7 ppg · transferred to Niagara
Added
- Aidan Hadaway from Ohio · 31.8 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
- Orlando Lovejoy from Detroit Mercy · 30.0 mpg, 15.3 ppg last season
- Isaiah Sutherland from ETSU · 7.8 mpg, 2.5 ppg last season
- Christian Burnett no D1 minutes last season
- Ne'quan Brown no D1 minutes last season
- Henry Gruetzmacher no D1 minutes last season
Returns 32% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Northern Iowa
Returning minutes: 9.6%Returning production: 5.7%
Lost
- Trey Campbell 33.5 mpg, 13.7 ppg · transferred to Utah
- Leon Bond III 32.8 mpg, 11.9 ppg · transferred to Iowa State
- Ben Schwieger 27.8 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Will Hornseth 25.5 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Utah State
- Max Weisbrod 24.7 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to N Illinois
- Tristan Smith 16.5 mpg, 7.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Tate McCubbin from Austin Peay · 29.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
- Greyson Uelmen from North Dakota · 27.8 mpg, 16.8 ppg last season
- Isaiah Johnson-Arigu from St Thomas · 20.7 mpg, 10.2 ppg last season
- Carson Vis from W Michigan · 14.8 mpg, 5.8 ppg last season
- Ian Smikle from Tulsa · 13.8 mpg, 3.1 ppg last season
- Jules Isebaert no D1 minutes last season
Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -3.5-115 | 151.5→150.5o-115 u-105 | -166 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5-110 | 150.5o-115 u-105 | -162 | +134 |
| BetMGM | -3.5-115 | 151.5→150.5o-115 u-105 | -170 | +140 |
| BetRivers | -3.5-112 | 151.5→150.5o-113 u-110 | -180 | +143 |
| Caesars | -3.5-110 | 151.5→151o-110 u-110 | -165 | +140 |
| Fanatics | -3.5-115 | 150.5o-112 u-107 | -170 | +140 |
| BetOnline | -3→-3.5-115 | 151→150o-115 u-105 | -162 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3.5-110 | 150.5→151o-110 u-110 | -170 | +145 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5-115 | 151.5→150.5o-110 u-110 | -155 | +135 |
| Hard Rock | -3.5-110 | 151.5→150.5o-110 u-110 | -180 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5-108 | 150.5o-104 u+100 | -163 | +156 |
| Polymarket | -3.5-108 | 150.5o-104 u+100 | -163 | +156 |
| Novig | -3.5-108 | 150.5o-102 u+100 | -163 | +160 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Tue, Nov 10
- Florida at Florida St · 6:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at Georgetown · 6:30 PM ET
- NJIT at Rutgers · 6:30 PM ET
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- Detroit Mercy at Xavier · 7:00 PM ET
- MD Eastern at Boston College · 7:00 PM ET
- Michigan St vs Duke · 7:00 PM ET
- Charleston So at Wake Forest · 7:00 PM ET
- Youngstown St at C Michigan · 7:00 PM ET
- Siena at Dayton · 7:00 PM ET
- Iona at Fordham · 7:00 PM ET
- Elon at G Washington · 7:00 PM ET
- Army at New Haven · 7:00 PM ET
- Wyoming at North Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- LMU at Troy · 7:00 PM ET
- Presbyterian at NC State · 7:00 PM ET
- Maine at Rhode Island · 7:00 PM ET
- E Kentucky at Georgia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Harvard at Northeastern · 7:00 PM ET
- Virginia Tech vs Iowa · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercer at GA Southern · 7:00 PM ET
- South Alabama at UCF · 7:00 PM ET
- La Salle at Villanova · 7:00 PM ET
- Winthrop at Kennesaw St · 7:00 PM ET
- Bradley at Davidson · 7:00 PM ET
- Washington St at Duquesne · 7:00 PM ET
- Wright St at Toledo · 7:00 PM ET
- Memphis at Vanderbilt · 7:15 PM ET
- Nicholls at Tulane · 7:30 PM ET
- Texas St at UT Rio Grande · 7:30 PM ET
- Evansville at MTSU · 7:30 PM ET
- Yale at Baylor · 8:00 PM ET
- Southern at Iowa State · 8:00 PM ET
- N Kentucky at Saint Louis · 8:00 PM ET
- Illinois at Texas Tech · 8:00 PM ET
- Prairie View at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
- Belmont at Lipscomb · 8:00 PM ET
- Hou Christian at South Dakota · 8:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Murray St · 8:00 PM ET
- UT Martin at Arkansas St · 8:00 PM ET
- SE Louisiana at Ole Miss · 8:30 PM ET
- Fairfield at Wisconsin · 8:30 PM ET
- Creighton at Kansas St · 9:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Arizona · 9:00 PM ET
- San Diego at Colorado · 9:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at TCU · 9:00 PM ET
- Bucknell at Virginia · 9:00 PM ET
- Weber St at Utah · 9:00 PM ET
- Hofstra at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- Queens at BYU · 9:00 PM ET
- Little Rock at New Mexico · 9:00 PM ET
- Utah Tech at Utah State · 9:00 PM ET
- Georgia St at Fresno St · 9:00 PM ET
- Kansas vs Kentucky · 9:30 PM ET
- Montana at San Francisco · 10:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.