CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceThe Pit, Albuquerque, NM
Little Rock
Efficiency #300
2025-26: 12-20 · 9-12 conf
@
New Mexico
Efficiency #42
2025-26: 26-11 · 14-8 conf
Tue, Nov 10 · TBD
66.6
win 8%
Projected
83.1
win 92%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNM −16.5 · total 149.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: New Mexico 70.0, Little Rock 67.7 → 69.3 possessions
+2.2
New Mexico offense vs Little Rock defense
+5.9
Little Rock offense vs New Mexico defense
−6.6
Projected total
149.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
New Mexico offense vs Little Rock defense
+5.9
Little Rock offense vs New Mexico defense
+6.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
New Mexico by 16.5
16.5
Little Rock side ◂▸ New Mexico side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help New Mexico.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, New Mexico is the faster team (70.7, #67 of 365) and Little Rock the slower (67.6, #217). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.7
model
Projected team totals
66.6 / 83.1
Little Rock / New Mexico
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.7#233
Little Rock
70.0#51
New Mexico
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageLittle Rock
Where Little Rock struggles: ball control
Little Rock turns it over on 18.4% of possessions (#293); New Mexico forces turnovers on 19.0% of opponent possessions (#51). Expect about 19.1%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageNew Mexico
Where New Mexico scores: shooting
New Mexico shoots an effective 53.5% (#82); Little Rock allows 51.8% (#199). Expect about 52.8%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (New Mexico's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Little Rock at about 38.3% of its shots from three, New Mexico about 42.0%.
GlassNew Mexico
New Mexico owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.6% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for New Mexico's offense.
DefenseLittle Rock
Little Rock's shot-blocking
Little Rock ranks #37 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.4% of New Mexico's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
ClashLittle Rock
Style clash: 3-point volume
Little Rock rarely shoots threes (31.0% of its shots); New Mexico lets opponents take 48.2% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Little Rock has the ball
OffenseNew Mexico allowsvs D1 avg
49.4% #273
49.5% #84
-2.8 pt/100
18.4% #293
19.0% #51
-2.9 pt/100
31.5% #143
27.7% #57
-0.3 pt/100
27.7% #345
33.3% #138
-0.6 pt/100
68.0% #327
—
-0.4 pt/100
Little Rock net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.0 pts/100
New Mexico has the ball
OffenseLittle Rock allowsvs D1 avg
53.5% #82
51.8% #199
+2.2 pt/100
14.9% #58
18.5% #71
-0.1 pt/100
30.6% #176
36.6% #357
+1.9 pt/100
35.8% #160
33.1% #134
-0.1 pt/100
72.9% #176
—
+0.0 pt/100
New Mexico net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.0 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersLittle Rockoffense vsNew Mexicodefense
Share of shots by zone
Little Rock shoots
36.0
6.9
25.9
31.2
New Mexico allows
30.7
4.1
17.3
48.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.8%#57 | 59.1%#196 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 32.4%#323 | 43.4%#258 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 30.6%#349 | 43.4%#333 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.3%#96 | 30.5%#20 | 33.7% |
New Mexicooffense vsLittle Rockdefense
Share of shots by zone
New Mexico shoots
42.6
5.3
10.7
41.4
Little Rock allows
41.3
5.8
12.8
40.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.1%#225 | 62.6%#315 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.9%#125 | 28.7%#10 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.8%#84 | 29.6%#5 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.6%#83 | 34.4%#211 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersLittle Rock
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#296 of 365
Off reb %
31.5%
#143
Def reb %
63.4%
#357
Turnover %
18.4%
#293
Forced TO %
18.5%
#71
FT rate
27.7%
#345
FT allowed
33.1%
#134
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−1.9
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed+0.6
New Mexico
+4.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#30 of 365
Off reb %
30.6%
#176
Def reb %
72.3%
#57
Turnover %
14.9%
#58
Forced TO %
19.0%
#51
FT rate
35.8%
#160
FT allowed
33.3%
#138
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+1.3
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.5
New Mexico has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.5 (#30 of 365) to Little Rock’s −2.8 (#296).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Little Rock2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Little Rock's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Johnathan Lawson | G | Sr | 6'7" | 31-31 | 36.7 | 16.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 48.7% | 34.7% | 7.2 | 82.8% | 27.3% | |
| 0 | Braxton Bayless | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 33.0 | 10.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 46.5% | 35.1% | 3.0 | 70.4% | 22.7% | |
| 24 | Cameron Wallace | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-22 | 28.6 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 49.0% | 5.3% | 0.6 | 57.4% | 29.0% | |
| 32 | Tuongthach Gatkek | F | Sr | 6'9" | 29-29 | 31.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 59.1% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 66.2% | 17.6% | |
| 15 | Kachi Nzeh | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 28.4 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 54.9% | 41.5% | 3.7 | 69.9% | 24.9% | |
| 22 | Truman Claytor IV | F | Jr | 6'6" | 28-0 | 16.2 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 47.0% | 34.3% | 2.4 | 72.4% | 27.5% | |
| 10 | Caleb Pennyfeather | F | So | 6'9" | 29-4 | 11.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 45.5% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 33.3% | 14.2% | |
| 12 | Tracy Steele Jr. | G | Sr | 6'3" | 24-0 | 10.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 43.6% | 38.1% | 0.9 | 35.3% | 14.6% | |
| 23 | Terrion Burgess | F | Fr | 6'9" | 6-4 | 23.5 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 71.2% | 42.9% | 1.2 | 66.7% | 15.9% | |
| 1 | Joseph Thomas | G | So | 6'3" | 13-1 | 10.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 45.5% | 1.7 | 80.0% | 19.7% | |
| 5 | Christian Hughes | G | So | 6'2" | 9-5 | 15.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 18.4% | 14.3% | 0.8 | 25.0% | 9.9% | |
| 4 | Kellen Robinson | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Khasen Robinson | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | KK Robinson | G | Sr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Travonne Jackson | G | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
New Mexico2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted New Mexico's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Jake Hall | G | Fr | 6'4" | 37-37 | 31.0 | 16.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 61.7% | 43.8% | 7.2 | 80.0% | 25.2% | |
| 3 | Luke Haupt | G | Sr | 6'7" | 37-27 | 28.1 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 71.6% | 17.2% | |
| 4 | Uriah Tenette | G | Fr | 5'11" | 36-8 | 27.5 | 10.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 47.8% | 32.4% | 3.8 | 83.2% | 22.2% | |
| 10 | Tomislav Buljan | F | Fr | 6'9" | 35-35 | 26.0 | 13.1 | 10.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 55.3% | 30.8% | 0.7 | 60.7% | 29.0% | |
| 5 | Antonio Chol | F | Jr | 6'9" | 37-32 | 24.2 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 32.3% | 5.0 | 60.0% | 19.3% | |
| 1 | Deyton Albury | G | Sr | 6'2" | 35-34 | 24.8 | 11.7 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 55.6% | 37.7% | 1.5 | 77.9% | 26.9% | |
| 2 | Tajavis Miller | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-0 | 16.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 50.6% | 34.3% | 3.3 | 66.7% | 20.0% | |
| 35 | JT Rock | C | So | 7'1" | 37-1 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 61.9% | 39.7% | 1.6 | 64.4% | 24.6% | |
| 8 | Chris Howell | G | Sr | 6'6" | 11-11 | 24.5 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 42.4% | 27.8% | 1.6 | 87.5% | 16.0% | |
| 31 | Milos Vicentic | F | Sr | 6'7" | 16-0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 40.8% | 20.7% | 1.8 | 100.0% | 27.7% | |
| 0 | Kevin Patton Jr. | G | Jr | 6'8" | 9-0 | 9.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 39.6% | 10.0% | 1.1 | 57.1% | 20.0% | |
| 29 | Timeo Pons | G | Fr | 6'8" | 13-0 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 45.0% | 30.4% | 1.8 | 87.5% | 29.5% | |
| 11 | Kallai Patton | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Sir Marius Jones | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Little Rock2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Little Rock's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Johnathan Lawson | G | Sr | 6'7" | 31-31 | 36.7 | 16.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 48.7% | 34.7% | 7.2 | 82.8% | 27.3% | |
| 0 | Braxton Bayless | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 33.0 | 10.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 46.5% | 35.1% | 3.0 | 70.4% | 22.7% | |
| 24 | Cameron Wallace | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-22 | 28.6 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 49.0% | 5.3% | 0.6 | 57.4% | 29.0% | |
| 32 | Tuongthach Gatkek | F | Sr | 6'9" | 29-29 | 31.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 59.1% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 66.2% | 17.6% | |
| 15 | Kachi Nzeh | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 28.4 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 54.9% | 41.5% | 3.7 | 69.9% | 24.9% | |
| 22 | Truman Claytor IV | F | Jr | 6'6" | 28-0 | 16.2 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 47.0% | 34.3% | 2.4 | 72.4% | 27.5% | |
| 10 | Caleb Pennyfeather | F | So | 6'9" | 29-4 | 11.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 45.5% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 33.3% | 14.2% | |
| 12 | Tracy Steele Jr. | G | Sr | 6'3" | 24-0 | 10.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 43.6% | 38.1% | 0.9 | 35.3% | 14.6% | |
| 23 | Terrion Burgess | F | Fr | 6'9" | 6-4 | 23.5 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 71.2% | 42.9% | 1.2 | 66.7% | 15.9% | |
| 1 | Joseph Thomas | G | So | 6'3" | 13-1 | 10.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 45.5% | 1.7 | 80.0% | 19.7% | |
| 5 | Christian Hughes | G | So | 6'2" | 9-5 | 15.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 18.4% | 14.3% | 0.8 | 25.0% | 9.9% | |
| 4 | Kellen Robinson | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Khasen Robinson | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | KK Robinson | G | Sr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Travonne Jackson | G | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Little Rock
Against the spread
Season
12-18
Home
4-7
Road
8-10
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −0.7
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-15
Home
7-4
Road
8-10
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −2.4
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Lindenwood | N | L 62–72 | +4.5 | L−5.5 | 148.5 | U134 | 80.1 | 93.0 | 77.4 |
| Feb 28 | S Indiana | H | W 89–70 | −6.0 | W+13.0 | 139.5 | O159 | 132.8 | 104.5 | 67.0 |
| Feb 26 | Morehead St | H | L 70–76 | −2.5 | L−8.5 | 139.0 | O146 | 108.5 | 117.8 | 64.5 |
| Feb 21 | SE Missouri | H | L 65–70 | +2.5 | L−2.5 | 144.0 | U135 | 95.3 | 102.6 | 68.2 |
| Feb 19 | UT Martin | H | W 67–65 | +2.5 | W+4.5 | 136.0 | U132 | 112.3 | 109.0 | 59.6 |
| Feb 14 | E Illinois | A | L 72–78 | −1.5 | L−7.5 | 135.5 | O150 | 108.4 | 117.5 | 66.4 |
| Feb 12 | W Illinois | A | W 77–58 | −7.5 | W+11.5 | 142.0 | U135 | 108.7 | 81.8 | 70.9 |
| Feb 7 | SIUE | H | L 61–71 | −1.5 | L−11.5 | 133.0 | U132 | 90.5 | 105.3 | 67.4 |
| Feb 5 | Lindenwood | H | L 74–79 | +1.5 | L−3.5 | 150.5 | O153 | 109.2 | 116.6 | 67.8 |
| Feb 3 | UT Martin | A | L 52–55 | +6.5 | W+3.5 | 138.5 | U107 | 83.8 | 88.6 | 62.1 |
New Mexico
Against the spread
Season
21-14
Home
11-7
Road
7-5
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +1.7
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
22-12-1
Home
11-6-1
Road
8-4
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −0.1
Under 3 straightOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 | Tulsa | N | L 69–74 | +3.0 | L−2.0 | 162.5 | U143 | 97.1 | 104.2 | 71.0 |
| Mar 24 | Saint Joseph's | H | W 84–69 | −10.5 | W+4.5 | 155.0 | U153 | 113.9 | 93.5 | 73.8 |
| Mar 22 | G Washington | H | W 86–61 | −7.0 | W+18.0 | 161.5 | U147 | 125.8 | 89.2 | 68.4 |
| Mar 18 | Sam Houston | H | W 107–83 | −11.5 | W+12.5 | 163.0 | O190 | 140.7 | 109.2 | 76.0 |
| Mar 13 | San Diego St | N | L 62–64 | +2.5 | W+0.5 | 150.5 | U126 | 93.7 | 96.8 | 66.1 |
| Mar 12 | San José St | N | W 93–77 | −15.5 | W+0.5 | 154.5 | O170 | 135.2 | 111.9 | 68.8 |
| Mar 7 | Utah State | A | L 90–94 | +7.5 | W+3.5 | 156.5 | O184 | 130.0 | 135.8 | 69.2 |
| Mar 4 | Colorado St | H | L 74–82 | −8.0 | L−16.0 | 151.0 | O156 | 101.9 | 112.9 | 72.6 |
| Feb 28 | San Diego St | H | W 81–76 | −1.5 | W+3.5 | 149.0 | O157 | 115.3 | 108.1 | 70.3 |
| Feb 24 | Nevada | A | L 60–67 | −1.0 | L−8.0 | 150.0 | U127 | 84.9 | 94.7 | 70.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeLittle RockNew Mexico
Efficiency
104.6
113.5
111.9
102.9
67.7
70.0
—
—
Shooting
49.4%
53.5%
47.9%
53.6%
35.3%
35.6%
68.0%
72.9%
27.7%
35.8%
Ball control & glass
18.4%
14.9%
18.5%
19.0%
31.5%
30.6%
36.6%
27.7%
10.6%
8.6%
5.6%
9.2%
Style
31.0%
41.9%
47.2%
42.8%
16.2%
15.4%
52.2%
52.8%
20.6%
31.5%
Roster
3.39
2.48
6'6.5"
6'5.5"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputLittle Rock
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Little Rock's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
New Mexico
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted New Mexico's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.