CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceJeffery P. Hazell Athletics Center, West Haven, CT

Army

Efficiency #336

2025-26: 11-21 · 5-14 conf

New Haven

Efficiency #326

2025-26: 14-17 · 9-9 conf

Tue, Nov 10 · TBD

66.6

win 34%

Projected

71.3

win 66%

No line posted yet.

Model: NHVN −4.7 · total 137.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: New Haven 65.7, Army 68.2 → 65.6 possessions

−6.0

New Haven offense vs Army defense

−1.7

Army offense vs New Haven defense

−2.6

Projected total

137.9

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

New Haven offense vs Army defense

−1.7

Army offense vs New Haven defense

+2.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

New Haven by 4.7

4.7

Army side ◂▸ New Haven side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help New Haven.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Army is the faster team (67.2, #234 of 365) and New Haven the slower (63.5, #360). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

137.9

model

Projected team totals

66.6 / 71.3

Army / New Haven

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.2#195

Army

65.7#349

New Haven

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageNew Haven

Where New Haven struggles: the offensive glass

New Haven rebounds 21.5% of its own misses (#359); Army lets opponents grab 27.7% of their own misses (#54). Expect about 22.9%, 7.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.6 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Half-court grind

New Haven averages 63.5 possessions per 40, Army 67.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (New Haven) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Army at about 49.9% of its shots from three, New Haven about 41.2%.

Army has the ball

OffenseNew Haven allowsvs D1 avg

49.3% #279

51.8% #203

-1.3 pt/100

17.2% #220

17.1% #142

-0.5 pt/100

29.6% #219

26.8% #30

-1.4 pt/100

26.8% #352

27.7% #31

-1.0 pt/100

71.7% #215

—

-0.1 pt/100

Army net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.3 pts/100

New Haven has the ball

OffenseArmy allowsvs D1 avg

48.7% #296

55.1% #334

+0.7 pt/100

17.8% #257

15.4% #257

+0.3 pt/100

21.5% #359

27.7% #54

-4.6 pt/100

31.7% #261

39.6% #298

+0.1 pt/100

70.2% #266

—

-0.2 pt/100

New Haven net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Armyoffense vsNew Havendefense

Share of shots by zone

Army shoots

34.7

3.5

9.1

52.7

New Haven allows

39.2

6.2

16.7

38.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.2%#187	57.9%#146	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.0%#194	45.2%#305	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	27.5%#364	38.5%#179	38.0%
Three	32.0%#278	34.3%#198	33.7%

New Havenoffense vsArmydefense

Share of shots by zone

New Haven shoots

37.9

4.4

17.0

40.6

Army allows

38.3

5.2

14.3

42.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.1%#92	64.9%#348	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.2%#264	37.3%#121	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.2%#327	37.6%#144	38.0%
Three	30.2%#340	35.6%#285	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Army

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#319 of 365

Off reb %

29.6%

#219

Def reb %

72.3%

#54

Turnover %

17.2%

#220

Forced TO %

15.4%

#257

FT rate

26.8%

#352

FT allowed

39.6%

#298

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.3

Defensive rebounding+1.0

Ball security−0.3

Forcing turnovers−0.9

Foul shots drawn−2.1

Foul shots allowed−1.1

New Haven

−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#230 of 365

Off reb %

21.5%

#359

Def reb %

73.2%

#30

Turnover %

17.8%

#257

Forced TO %

17.1%

#142

FT rate

31.7%

#261

FT allowed

27.7%

#31

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.9

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers+0.3

Foul shots drawn−0.8

Foul shots allowed+1.9

New Haven has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.0 (#230 of 365) to Army’s −3.7 (#319).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Army2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Army's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Ryan Curry	G	Jr	6'0"	31-31	33.8	13.3	4.1	4.5	2.2	50.4%	33.5%	7.3	81.3%	25.6%
10	Jacen Holloway	F	So	6'4"	31-23	28.2	10.8	3.6	2.1	1.6	54.5%	30.9%	1.8	64.8%	23.3%
4	Jaxson Bell	G	So	6'3"	30-8	25.3	12.2	5.0	1.5	2.0	51.5%	35.9%	4.8	80.9%	29.8%
1	Jackson Furman	G	Fr	6'3"	32-8	23.5	8.9	3.3	1.3	1.7	47.7%	34.7%	5.4	82.2%	26.7%
22	Kevin McCarthy	G	So	6'4"	30-29	24.3	7.9	2.7	1.2	0.9	50.9%	34.6%	5.3	68.8%	20.9%
32	Tate Laczkowski	F	Jr	6'8"	32-30	21.5	5.2	5.3	1.9	1.1	57.1%	28.1%	1.0	43.8%	15.8%
54	Jorn Everson	F	Sr	6'8"	32-26	18.9	7.6	2.3	0.9	0.7	50.0%	30.1%	3.5	60.0%	25.5%
5	Joshua Eli	F	So	6'6"	29-0	14.3	4.3	3.5	0.8	0.3	53.9%	54.2%	0.8	62.2%	17.3%
24	Alex Engro	G	So	6'2"	23-0	6.6	0.9	1.3	0.3	0.1	25.0%	12.5%	1.0	50.0%	15.4%
13	Dillon Watt	G	Fr	5'11"	21-0	5.1	1.0	0.2	0.2	0.3	17.6%	0.0%	0.3	84.2%	18.0%
23	Dylan Benner	F	Fr	6'7"	19-1	5.7	1.6	0.7	0.4	0.4	43.1%	20.8%	1.3	62.5%	22.3%
21	Jackson Mayo	G	Sr	6'0"	16-2	5.9	1.9	0.9	0.4	0.3	39.5%	27.8%	2.3	50.0%	27.1%
0	Dayon Polk	G	So	6'0"	10-1	8.0	0.7	1.2	0.6	0.9	20.6%	8.3%	1.2	—	18.9%
12	Dylan Murans	F	So	6'7"	12-0	3.6	0.7	0.5	0.0	0.0	27.3%	0.0%	0.5	50.0%	17.5%
25	Jahaan Green	G	Fr	6'5"	10-0	3.1	1.0	0.4	0.2	0.2	50.0%	100.0%	0.1	100.0%	21.9%
14	Brendon O'Keefe	G	So	5'10"	8-0	2.8	1.1	0.6	0.4	0.0	50.0%	50.0%	0.8	—	23.3%
34	Nnaemeka Ikechi	F	So	6'7"	3-0	5.0	0.0	1.7	0.7	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	11.3%
15	Chanse Perkins	F	Sr	6'4"	0-1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

New Haven2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Najimi George	G	So	6'4"	30-29	33.7	11.2	3.6	1.6	1.6	46.0%	27.8%	3.6	64.0%	24.2%
15	Andre Pasha	F	So	6'9"	31-31	31.7	10.7	5.2	1.8	1.5	51.5%	35.1%	3.7	82.9%	22.8%
5	Stefano Faloppa	F	Jr	6'9"	31-31	26.1	6.2	4.4	1.3	1.1	58.0%	35.6%	1.9	70.3%	15.1%
3	Kheni Briggs	G	Sr	6'3"	28-18	18.3	6.9	1.3	1.2	1.2	55.4%	34.7%	2.6	72.5%	24.6%
22	Maison Adeleye	G	Sr	6'3"	31-12	15.9	4.5	2.1	1.0	0.9	47.9%	26.4%	1.7	68.4%	20.9%
14	Teshaun Steele	G	Fr	6'7"	31-0	15.2	3.9	3.2	0.9	0.5	47.3%	17.1%	1.1	71.7%	17.1%
10	Vere Anthony	G	Fr	6'0"	14-0	13.5	2.6	0.8	1.2	0.9	33.8%	7.1%	1.0	57.9%	18.5%
21	Zoumana Traore	G	Fr	6'8"	21-1	8.7	2.3	1.6	0.4	0.6	45.8%	33.3%	1.1	80.0%	20.6%
2	Aidan Losiewicz	G	Fr	6'3"	23-1	6.7	2.9	0.7	0.3	0.3	63.5%	43.9%	1.8	25.0%	25.4%
20	Tristan Burth	F	Fr	6'8"	19-0	7.2	1.6	1.7	0.2	0.2	48.0%	—	0.0	37.5%	16.0%
25	Kyle Kearson	G	Sr	6'4"	19-2	6.9	1.3	1.4	0.4	0.2	44.2%	33.3%	0.8	25.0%	14.5%
7	Dior Kennedy	G	Fr	6'2"	6-0	2.8	1.7	1.0	0.8	0.0	44.4%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	35.9%
8	Jagger Bascombe	G	So	6'4"	3-0	4.0	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.0	25.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	18.3%
12	Timothy Coleman	F	Jr	6'7"	3-0	4.0	2.7	1.0	1.0	0.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.7	—	18.3%
4	Dominick LaDuca	G	Fr	5'7"	3-0	2.7	2.7	0.3	0.0	0.0	133.3%	100.0%	0.7	—	20.6%
11	Nathan Narcisse	G	So	6'4"	1-0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	17.3%
13	John Oladipo	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Justice Hanna	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
31	Matiss Ogle	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	Owen Hotaling	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Army2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Army's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Ryan Curry	G	Jr	6'0"	31-31	33.8	13.3	4.1	4.5	2.2	50.4%	33.5%	7.3	81.3%	25.6%
10	Jacen Holloway	F	So	6'4"	31-23	28.2	10.8	3.6	2.1	1.6	54.5%	30.9%	1.8	64.8%	23.3%
4	Jaxson Bell	G	So	6'3"	30-8	25.3	12.2	5.0	1.5	2.0	51.5%	35.9%	4.8	80.9%	29.8%
1	Jackson Furman	G	Fr	6'3"	32-8	23.5	8.9	3.3	1.3	1.7	47.7%	34.7%	5.4	82.2%	26.7%
22	Kevin McCarthy	G	So	6'4"	30-29	24.3	7.9	2.7	1.2	0.9	50.9%	34.6%	5.3	68.8%	20.9%
32	Tate Laczkowski	F	Jr	6'8"	32-30	21.5	5.2	5.3	1.9	1.1	57.1%	28.1%	1.0	43.8%	15.8%
54	Jorn Everson	F	Sr	6'8"	32-26	18.9	7.6	2.3	0.9	0.7	50.0%	30.1%	3.5	60.0%	25.5%
5	Joshua Eli	F	So	6'6"	29-0	14.3	4.3	3.5	0.8	0.3	53.9%	54.2%	0.8	62.2%	17.3%
24	Alex Engro	G	So	6'2"	23-0	6.6	0.9	1.3	0.3	0.1	25.0%	12.5%	1.0	50.0%	15.4%
13	Dillon Watt	G	Fr	5'11"	21-0	5.1	1.0	0.2	0.2	0.3	17.6%	0.0%	0.3	84.2%	18.0%
23	Dylan Benner	F	Fr	6'7"	19-1	5.7	1.6	0.7	0.4	0.4	43.1%	20.8%	1.3	62.5%	22.3%
21	Jackson Mayo	G	Sr	6'0"	16-2	5.9	1.9	0.9	0.4	0.3	39.5%	27.8%	2.3	50.0%	27.1%
0	Dayon Polk	G	So	6'0"	10-1	8.0	0.7	1.2	0.6	0.9	20.6%	8.3%	1.2	—	18.9%
12	Dylan Murans	F	So	6'7"	12-0	3.6	0.7	0.5	0.0	0.0	27.3%	0.0%	0.5	50.0%	17.5%
25	Jahaan Green	G	Fr	6'5"	10-0	3.1	1.0	0.4	0.2	0.2	50.0%	100.0%	0.1	100.0%	21.9%
14	Brendon O'Keefe	G	So	5'10"	8-0	2.8	1.1	0.6	0.4	0.0	50.0%	50.0%	0.8	—	23.3%
34	Nnaemeka Ikechi	F	So	6'7"	3-0	5.0	0.0	1.7	0.7	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	11.3%
15	Chanse Perkins	F	Sr	6'4"	0-1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Army

Against the spread

Season

12-18

Home

4-10

Road

8-7

Last 10

1-9

avg cover −3.7

Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 1 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-13

Home

7-7

Road

9-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −3.0

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 3	BucknellAdjEM #334	A	L 55–65	+2.0	L−8.0	144.0	U120	82.2	97.2	66.9
Feb 28	LafayetteAdjEM #319	A	L 77–83	+3.0	L−3.0	144.5	O160	106.2	114.5	72.5
Feb 25	BucknellAdjEM #334	H	L 73–75	−3.5	L−5.5	142.5	O148	100.8	103.6	72.4
Feb 21	NavyAdjEM #104	H	L 63–81	+7.5	L−10.5	137.5	O144	98.4	126.5	64.0
Feb 18	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	A	W 87–77	+4.5	W+14.5	150.0	O164	126.1	111.6	69.0
Feb 14	AmericanAdjEM #234	A	L 63–75	+9.5	L−2.5	145.5	U138	95.8	114.0	65.8
Feb 11	Boston UAdjEM #237	H	L 68–85	+3.0	L−14.0	140.0	O153	108.8	136.1	62.5
Feb 7	LafayetteAdjEM #319	H	L 60–63	+1.0	L−2.0	143.0	U123	89.1	93.6	67.3
Feb 4	ColgateAdjEM #223	A	L 55–69	+10.0	L−4.0	149.5	U124	85.6	107.3	64.3
Jan 31	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	H	W 69–68	−3.0	L−2.0	144.0	U137	101.8	100.3	67.8

New Haven

Against the spread

Season

15-13

Home

6-6

Road

9-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +2.9

Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

8-20

Home

2-10

Road

6-10

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total +0.9

Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Feb 28	Le MoyneAdjEM #270	H	W 66–59	+2.0	W+9.0	136.0	U125	96.8	86.5	68.2
Feb 26	WagnerAdjEM #285	A	L 62–65	+2.0	L−1.0	131.5	U127	99.5	104.3	62.3
Feb 24	Saint Francis Red Wolves	H	L 67–73	−7.0	L−13.0	141.0	U140	106.6	116.2	62.8
Feb 21	FDUAdjEM #332	A	W 84–77	+2.5	W+9.5	124.5	O161	133.7	122.6	62.8
Feb 19	StonehillAdjEM #320	H	W 64–51	−3.0	W+10.0	121.0	U115	97.8	77.9	65.5
Feb 14	Long IslandAdjEM #195	H	W 55–52	+7.0	W+10.0	129.5	U107	88.9	84.1	61.8
Feb 12	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	H	L 76–81	+3.0	L−2.0	129.0	O157	110.2	117.5	69.0
Feb 7	Chicago StAdjEM #342	H	L 57–63	−5.5	L−11.5	127.5	U120	96.8	106.9	58.9
Feb 5	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 55–60	+9.5	W+4.5	136.0	U115	87.1	95.0	63.1
Jan 31	Saint Francis Red Wolves	A	W 81–69	+1.0	W+13.0	131.5	O150	122.4	104.2	66.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

ArmyNew Haven

Efficiency

103.4

100.1

114.3

109.6

68.2

65.7

—

Shooting

49.3%

48.7%

50.7%

51.0%

32.0%

30.2%

71.7%

70.2%

26.8%

31.7%

Ball control & glass

17.2%

17.8%

15.4%

17.1%

29.6%

21.5%

27.7%

26.8%

10.4%

9.3%

11.2%

7.7%

Style

53.3%

39.8%

37.8%

45.0%

9.6%

9.8%

59.0%

49.7%

36.6%

27.6%

Roster

2.33

2.38

6'3.9"

6'5.9"

—

82.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Army

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Army's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

New Haven

Returning minutes: 82.7%Returning production: 78.3%

Lost

Jabri Fitzpatrick 34.5 mpg, 15.0 ppg · transferred to E Michigan

Added

Justice Hanna no D1 minutes last season
Matiss Ogle no D1 minutes last season
John Oladipo no D1 minutes last season
Owen Hotaling no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.