CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMarriott Center, Provo, UT
Queens
Efficiency #191
2025-26: 21-14 · 16-5 conf
@
BYU
Efficiency #26
2025-26: 23-12 · 11-10 conf
Tue, Nov 10 · TBD
76.0
win 11%
Projected
90.5
win 89%
No line posted yet.
Model: BYU −14.5 · total 166.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: BYU 69.9, Queens 69.7 → 71.3 possessions
+6.4
BYU offense vs Queens defense
+11.1
Queens offense vs BYU defense
+0.7
Projected total
166.5
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
BYU offense vs Queens defense
+11.1
Queens offense vs BYU defense
−0.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
BYU by 14.5
14.5
Queens side ◂▸ BYU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 166.4 against a projected 166.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help BYU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Queens is the faster team (70.6, #68 of 365) and BYU the slower (70.4, #80). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
166.5
model
Projected team totals
76.0 / 90.5
Queens / BYU
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.7#68
Queens
69.9#57
BYU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageBYU
Where BYU scores: shooting
BYU shoots an effective 54.4% (#54); Queens allows 54.6% (#319). Expect about 54.8%, 3.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.0 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageQueens
Where Queens scores: shooting
Queens shoots an effective 56.4% (#15); BYU allows 51.2% (#174). Expect about 54.2%, 3.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.2 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
BYU averages 70.4 possessions per 40, Queens 70.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
GlassBYU
BYU owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.7% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for BYU's offense.
TurnoversBYU
BYU protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for BYU's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Queens's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Queens at about 44.8% of its shots from three, BYU about 39.7%.
Queens has the ball
OffenseBYU allowsvs D1 avg
56.4% #15
51.2% #174
+4.2 pt/100
14.8% #54
16.4% #196
+1.7 pt/100
30.2% #190
29.6% #145
-0.3 pt/100
35.4% #167
28.9% #42
-0.4 pt/100
74.9% #88
—
+0.2 pt/100
Queens net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.4 pts/100
BYU has the ball
OffenseQueens allowsvs D1 avg
54.4% #54
54.6% #319
+5.0 pt/100
15.2% #80
15.1% #277
+2.4 pt/100
34.3% #61
33.6% #308
+2.6 pt/100
34.4% #198
38.1% #263
+0.2 pt/100
74.7% #94
—
+0.2 pt/100
BYU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +10.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Queensoffense vsBYUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Queens shoots
BYU allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.2%#3261.2%#27458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)46.8%#4235.4%#7039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.5%#9541.0%#27638.0%
Three35.7%#7435.3%#26933.7%
BYUoffense vsQueensdefense
Share of shots by zone
BYU shoots
Queens allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim65.4%#1758.9%#18658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.5%#16450.5%#35739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.0%#2637.8%#15338.0%
Three34.5%#14536.5%#32533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Queens
−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#251 of 365
Off reb %
30.2%
#190
Def reb %
66.4%
#308
Turnover %
14.8%
#54
Forced TO %
15.1%
#277
FT rate
35.4%
#167
FT allowed
38.1%
#263
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.9
Ball security+1.4
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.7
BYU
+3.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#38 of 365
Off reb %
34.3%
#61
Def reb %
70.4%
#145
Turnover %
15.2%
#80
Forced TO %
16.4%
#196
FT rate
34.4%
#198
FT allowed
28.9%
#42
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+1.6

BYU has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.9 (#38 of 365) to Queens’s −1.3 (#251).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Queens2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Queens's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
11Chris AshbyGSr6'2"35-3530.711.62.01.50.753.5%37.5%8.587.8%20.5%
1Nasir MannGSr6'5"35-3530.413.35.72.81.654.6%31.8%3.178.0%24.1%
24Yoav BermanGSo6'6"35-3029.212.33.93.61.748.3%29.7%4.278.7%25.2%
22Carson SchwiegerFSo6'8"34-2724.610.13.10.80.660.7%40.9%6.669.0%20.4%
6Avantae ParkerFJr6'9"35-3422.111.15.31.21.668.2%38.5%0.461.7%25.1%
0Jordan WatfordGFr6'5"35-820.811.82.63.91.961.8%37.5%0.777.8%29.0%
9Maban JabrielFSo6'9"35-219.87.73.81.00.961.6%43.2%3.277.4%19.9%
7Gus LarsonFSr6'10"35-111.83.12.10.70.755.3%18.8%0.557.4%16.8%
3Isaiah HenryGFr6'4"26-07.93.01.70.40.555.0%25.0%0.673.3%22.2%
5Kam ClarkFJr6'7"26-37.31.81.00.30.335.1%11.1%1.078.9%19.1%
4Reid CelestinGJr6'6"15-02.90.20.70.20.220.0%0.0%0.125.0%12.9%
12Tyler CriderGFr6'0"8-01.30.00.00.10.00.0%0.0%0.4—22.6%
25Jacob BrandlyGFr6'6"1-01.00.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
35Colby ChristiansenGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Danzelle Bullock ColesGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Jimma JamesGJr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
23Matthew WalterGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Saif-Allah ZatariGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Seamus WilsonGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
QueensBYU
Efficiency
113.5
118.2
114.4
104.5
69.7
69.9
—
—
Shooting
56.4%
54.4%
58.9%
56.2%
35.7%
34.5%
74.9%
74.7%
35.4%
34.4%
Ball control & glass
14.8%
15.2%
15.1%
16.4%
30.2%
34.3%
33.6%
29.6%
9.0%
8.9%
9.4%
8.1%
Style
46.5%
39.8%
43.6%
45.4%
13.2%
15.6%
54.9%
45.0%
32.2%
26.2%
Roster
2.73
2.08
6'6.2"
6'5.3"
—
47.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Queens
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Queens's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

BYU
Returning minutes: 47.4%Returning production: 37.8%
Lost
  • AJ Dybantsa 34.8 mpg, 25.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kennard Davis Jr. 27.0 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Missouri
  • Richie Saunders 22.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Keba Keita 21.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Brody Kozlowski no D1 minutes last season
  • KJ Perry no D1 minutes last season
  • Nate Pickens no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 47% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.