CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceLenovo Center, Raleigh, NC

Presbyterian

Efficiency #252

2025-26: 15-18 · 8-10 conf

NC State

Efficiency #34

2025-26: 20-14 · 11-9 conf

Tue, Nov 10 · TBD

66.8

win 10%

Projected

81.6

win 90%

No line posted yet.

Model: NCSU −14.8 · total 148.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: NC State 69.4, Presbyterian 66.2 → 67.3 possessions

−2.1

NC State offense vs Presbyterian defense

+6.6

Presbyterian offense vs NC State defense

−4.3

Projected total

148.4

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

NC State offense vs Presbyterian defense

+6.6

Presbyterian offense vs NC State defense

+4.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

NC State by 14.8

14.8

Presbyterian side ◂▸ NC State side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help NC State.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, NC State is the faster team (69.5, #112 of 365) and Presbyterian the slower (66.1, #292). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.4

model

Projected team totals

66.8 / 81.6

Presbyterian / NC State

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.2#332

Presbyterian

69.4#88

NC State

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageNC State

Where NC State scores: ball control

NC State turns it over on 13.1% of possessions (#8); Presbyterian forces turnovers on 15.7% of opponent possessions (#233). Expect about 14.0%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantagePresbyterian

Where Presbyterian struggles: ball control

Presbyterian turns it over on 19.3% of possessions (#332); NC State forces turnovers on 18.2% of opponent possessions (#90). Expect about 19.1%, 2.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (NC State) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Presbyterian at about 33.8% of its shots from three, NC State about 40.6%.

DefensePresbyterian

Presbyterian's shot-blocking

Presbyterian ranks #36 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.5% of NC State's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

ClashPresbyterian

Style clash: 3-point volume

Presbyterian rarely shoots threes (28.0% of its shots); NC State lets opponents take 44.9% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 33.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

DefenseNC State

NC State's ball-hawking

NC State ranks #39 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.1% of Presbyterian's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Presbyterian has the ball

OffenseNC State allowsvs D1 avg

51.0% #196

52.7% #256

+0.8 pt/100

19.3% #332

18.2% #90

-2.9 pt/100

33.1% #86

30.5% #181

+1.2 pt/100

39.3% #71

36.9% #235

+0.4 pt/100

68.5% #312

—

-0.3 pt/100

Presbyterian net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.9 pts/100

NC State has the ball

OffensePresbyterian allowsvs D1 avg

55.0% #35

51.2% #170

+3.0 pt/100

13.1% #8

15.7% #233

+3.4 pt/100

28.2% #258

30.6% #188

-0.9 pt/100

35.1% #175

37.1% #241

+0.2 pt/100

76.8% #36

—

+0.4 pt/100

NC State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Presbyterianoffense vsNC Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

Presbyterian shoots

42.5

11.2

18.8

27.6

NC State allows

38.3

5.2

11.9

44.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.6%#175	58.4%#160	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.6%#30	37.2%#117	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.8%#192	37.2%#137	38.0%
Three	31.6%#301	35.5%#281	33.7%

NC Stateoffense vsPresbyteriandefense

Share of shots by zone

NC State shoots

39.1

5.5

13.0

42.4

Presbyterian allows

42.0

6.2

15.8

36.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.4%#148	55.1%#61	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	28.4%#354	42.9%#247	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.6%#273	40.0%#243	38.0%
Three	38.8%#6	34.7%#235	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Presbyterian

−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#225 of 365

Off reb %

33.1%

#86

Def reb %

69.4%

#188

Turnover %

19.3%

#332

Forced TO %

15.7%

#233

FT rate

39.3%

#71

FT allowed

37.1%

#241

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.9

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security−1.7

Forcing turnovers−0.7

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed−0.5

NC State

+2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#80 of 365

Off reb %

28.2%

#258

Def reb %

69.5%

#181

Turnover %

13.1%

Forced TO %

18.2%

#90

FT rate

35.1%

#175

FT allowed

36.9%

#235

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security+2.5

Forcing turnovers+1.0

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−0.4

NC State has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.4 (#80 of 365) to Presbyterian’s −0.9 (#225).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Presbyterian2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Presbyterian's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Carl Parrish	G	Jr	6'3"	33-33	33.5	14.4	2.8	2.4	1.6	51.3%	40.2%	5.7	84.5%	26.3%
15	Jonah Pierce	F	Sr	6'10"	33-33	32.6	16.0	9.6	1.3	2.9	55.2%	0.0%	0.0	57.3%	31.5%
7	Triston Wilson	G	So	6'6"	33-33	30.7	11.4	3.3	3.8	2.4	46.4%	23.7%	2.8	82.4%	25.3%
42	Jaylen Peterson	F	Jr	6'8"	33-33	30.0	10.9	7.5	0.8	1.5	61.4%	100.0%	0.0	54.9%	20.8%
4	Josh Pickett	G	So	6'5"	33-27	27.0	5.8	1.5	2.3	1.6	47.6%	34.7%	3.7	68.9%	16.5%
0	Iverson King	G	So	6'6"	21-2	19.3	4.5	2.8	0.7	1.0	41.5%	22.2%	2.1	68.0%	19.3%
6	Chidi Chiakwelu	F	Fr	6'8"	33-0	11.1	3.4	2.4	0.1	0.5	68.2%	—	0.0	43.8%	17.0%
2	Khalon Hudson	G	So	6'6"	32-0	11.1	3.9	2.5	0.3	0.4	53.9%	20.8%	0.8	90.3%	19.3%
3	JD Bowden	G	Fr	6'1"	26-0	8.8	2.2	0.4	1.1	0.7	37.0%	28.0%	1.0	87.0%	20.5%
11	Erik Taylor	G	So	6'1"	6-4	20.8	6.2	1.7	3.3	1.2	51.9%	29.4%	2.8	76.9%	19.0%
10	Amare Anderson	G	Fr	6'1"	20-0	5.0	1.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	50.0%	14.3%	0.3	66.7%	17.9%
1	Luke Allison	G	So	6'0"	7-0	2.9	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	37.5%	25.0%	0.6	—	14.3%
13	Augustine Ayelyine	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

NC State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Darrion Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	33-33	30.1	14.0	4.6	2.8	1.5	51.1%	40.4%	5.8	77.3%	28.0%
2	Paul McNeil Jr.	G	So	6'5"	34-32	28.7	13.8	3.6	0.8	0.4	59.7%	42.7%	7.2	82.4%	22.7%
22	Ven-Allen Lubin	F	Sr	6'9"	34-34	28.1	13.6	7.1	0.9	0.8	67.4%	27.3%	0.3	74.3%	21.8%
21	Terrance Arceneaux	G	Jr	6'6"	30-0	15.8	3.8	2.6	0.5	0.4	48.5%	32.6%	1.5	77.3%	14.8%
13	Musa Sagnia	F	Fr	6'10"	34-1	12.4	2.3	2.8	0.2	0.5	60.5%	25.0%	0.1	45.5%	11.3%
7	Alyn Breed	G	Sr	6'3"	21-7	14.8	4.5	1.9	1.3	0.4	47.3%	34.5%	1.4	89.3%	17.7%
15	Jerry Deng	F	Jr	6'9"	8-0	12.6	6.1	2.1	0.4	0.4	46.7%	32.4%	4.3	85.7%	28.9%
12	Scottie Ebube	C	Sr	6'10"	17-1	4.1	1.1	1.0	0.0	0.4	88.9%	—	0.0	23.1%	17.5%
0	Jordan Snell	G	Sr	6'3"	8-1	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.3	0.0	37.5%	28.6%	0.9	—	23.8%
45	Colt Langdon	F	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.8	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.7	100.0%	25.8%
10	Jayme Kontuniemi	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Zymicah Wilkins	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Presbyterian2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Presbyterian's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Carl Parrish	G	Jr	6'3"	33-33	33.5	14.4	2.8	2.4	1.6	51.3%	40.2%	5.7	84.5%	26.3%
15	Jonah Pierce	F	Sr	6'10"	33-33	32.6	16.0	9.6	1.3	2.9	55.2%	0.0%	0.0	57.3%	31.5%
7	Triston Wilson	G	So	6'6"	33-33	30.7	11.4	3.3	3.8	2.4	46.4%	23.7%	2.8	82.4%	25.3%
42	Jaylen Peterson	F	Jr	6'8"	33-33	30.0	10.9	7.5	0.8	1.5	61.4%	100.0%	0.0	54.9%	20.8%
4	Josh Pickett	G	So	6'5"	33-27	27.0	5.8	1.5	2.3	1.6	47.6%	34.7%	3.7	68.9%	16.5%
0	Iverson King	G	So	6'6"	21-2	19.3	4.5	2.8	0.7	1.0	41.5%	22.2%	2.1	68.0%	19.3%
6	Chidi Chiakwelu	F	Fr	6'8"	33-0	11.1	3.4	2.4	0.1	0.5	68.2%	—	0.0	43.8%	17.0%
2	Khalon Hudson	G	So	6'6"	32-0	11.1	3.9	2.5	0.3	0.4	53.9%	20.8%	0.8	90.3%	19.3%
3	JD Bowden	G	Fr	6'1"	26-0	8.8	2.2	0.4	1.1	0.7	37.0%	28.0%	1.0	87.0%	20.5%
11	Erik Taylor	G	So	6'1"	6-4	20.8	6.2	1.7	3.3	1.2	51.9%	29.4%	2.8	76.9%	19.0%
10	Amare Anderson	G	Fr	6'1"	20-0	5.0	1.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	50.0%	14.3%	0.3	66.7%	17.9%
1	Luke Allison	G	So	6'0"	7-0	2.9	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	37.5%	25.0%	0.6	—	14.3%
13	Augustine Ayelyine	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Presbyterian

Against the spread

Season

17-13

Home

7-4

Road

7-9

Last 10

6-4

avg cover −0.8

Covered 4 straightCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-14

Home

7-4

Road

8-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +2.0

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	WinthropAdjEM #116	N	L 71–73	+6.5	W+4.5	145.0	U144	103.4	106.4	68.6
Mar 6	RadfordAdjEM #245	N	W 91–85 OT	+2.0	W+8.0	146.5	O176	114.0	106.4	79.8
Feb 28	WinthropAdjEM #116	A	L 70–74	+9.0	W+5.0	150.5	U144	99.6	105.3	70.3
Feb 26	High PointAdjEM #50	H	L 73–79	+11.5	W+5.5	151.5	O152	106.8	115.6	68.3
Feb 21	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	A	L 74–76	−1.0	L−3.0	141.5	O150	114.9	118.0	64.4
Feb 19	LongwoodAdjEM #248	H	W 72–65	−2.5	W+4.5	140.0	U137	108.3	97.8	66.5
Feb 14	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	A	W 58–57	+4.5	W+5.5	136.5	U115	92.1	90.5	63.0
Feb 12	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	A	L 67–84	+1.5	L−15.5	146.5	O151	99.3	124.5	67.5
Feb 7	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	H	W 68–62	−17.5	L−11.5	145.5	U130	107.4	97.9	63.3
Jan 31	RadfordAdjEM #245	H	L 84–93 2OT	−1.5	L−10.5	152.0	O177	102.0	112.9	82.4

NC State

Against the spread

Season

15-17-2

Home

8-9

Road

4-5-1

Last 10

2-7-1

avg cover −9.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 0 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

21-13

Home

9-8

Road

8-2

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +8.7

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	#11TexasAdjEM #38	N	L 66–68	−1.0	L−3.0	157.5	U134	97.5	100.5	67.7
Mar 12	#10VirginiaAdjEM #15	N	L 74–81	+7.0	P0.0	152.0	O155	108.0	118.2	68.5
Mar 11	PittAdjEM #120	N	W 98–88	−9.0	W+1.0	144.5	O186	148.8	133.6	65.8
Mar 7	StanfordAdjEM #77	H	L 84–85	−9.0	L−10.0	152.5	O169	122.3	123.7	68.7
Mar 2	#1DukeAdjEM #2	H	L 64–93	+9.0	L−20.0	150.5	O157	99.3	144.3	64.5
Feb 28	Notre DameAdjEM #106	A	L 90–96 OT	−6.5	L−12.5	155.0	O186	126.1	134.5	71.4
Feb 24	#11VirginiaAdjEM #15	A	L 61–90	+6.0	L−23.0	152.0	U151	86.7	128.0	70.3
Feb 17	#16North CarolinaAdjEM #29	H	W 82–58	−7.5	W+16.5	155.5	U140	127.6	90.2	64.3
Feb 14	MiamiAdjEM #30	H	L 76–77	−5.5	L−6.5	158.0	U153	117.3	118.8	64.8
Feb 9	#24LouisvilleAdjEM #14	A	L 77–118	+7.0	L−34.0	161.5	O195	95.7	146.7	80.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

PresbyterianNC State

Efficiency

105.0

117.3

109.5

105.5

66.2

69.4

—

Shooting

51.0%

55.0%

52.3%

52.6%

31.6%

38.8%

68.5%

76.8%

39.3%

35.1%

Ball control & glass

19.3%

13.1%

15.7%

18.2%

33.1%

28.2%

30.6%

30.5%

10.2%

7.4%

8.4%

9.4%

Style

28.0%

43.4%

52.6%

39.8%

11.5%

12.9%

49.1%

54.6%

23.3%

31.0%

Roster

2.53

3.11

6'6.1"

6'6.7"

—

63.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Presbyterian

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Presbyterian's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

NC State

Returning minutes: 63.1%Returning production: 61.6%

Lost

Quadir Copeland 28.9 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tre Holloman 24.0 mpg, 8.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Matt Able 21.7 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to North Carolina

Added

Zymicah Wilkins no D1 minutes last season
Jayme Kontuniemi no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 63% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.