Alcorn State Braves vs Murray State Racers basketball prediction & odds
Tue, Nov 10 · 8:00 PM ET · CFSB Center, Murray, KY
Non-conferenceESPN+CFSB Center, Murray, KY
Alcorn St
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #358
@
Murray St
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #78
Live
68.893.8
Projected score
ALCN win 2%MUR win 98%
MarketClose
Spread
MUR −31.0
open MUR −24.5
Total
165.5
open 162.5
Our line
MUR −25.0
as of Tue, Nov 10 · 7:52 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
from the market's opening number| Line | Market open | Our adjustment | Our line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MUR −24.5 | 0.5 toward Murray St | MUR −25.0 |
Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 77.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Murray St is the faster team (78.3, #26 of 365) and Alcorn St the slower (74.0, #86). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
77.0
per team, 40 min
Market total
165.5
Market close · open 162.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.2#85
Alcorn St
75.4#9
Murray St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
MUR −25.0
Four factors +32.8 · not in these stats −7.8
From the four factors
Murray St has the ball+20.2
Alcorn St has the ball−12.6
Murray St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 59.3% #43 · ALCN allows 62.4% #337+12.5
✓Wins second chancesOR% 33.8% #130 · ALCN allows 43.6% #335+3.5
✓Gets to the lineFTR 43.1% #103 · ALCN allows 62.4% #345 · FT 77.4% #69+2.2
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 19.1% #220 · ALCN forces 14.2% #289 · ~12 turnovers+1.9
Alcorn St has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 25.0% #332 · MUR forces 28.1% #10 · ~22 turnovers−9.6
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 50.0% #176 · MUR allows 45.8% #92−2.7
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 35.0% #200 · MUR allows 47.7% #286 · FT 58.5% #327−0.3
✗Few second chancesOR% 35.1% #107 · MUR allows 26.1% #85−0.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootAlcorn Stoffense vsMurray Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Alcorn St shoots
20.4
10.8
23.7
45.2
Murray St allows
48.2
8.4
15.7
27.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 68.4%#64 | 50.0%#75 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.0%#228 | 57.1%#295 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.5%#84 | 23.1%#76 | 34.7% |
| Three | 35.8%#117 | 35.3%#235 | 32.5% |
Murray Stoffense vsAlcorn Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Murray St shoots
41.7
3.7
8.3
46.3
Alcorn St allows
42.7
10.4
12.5
34.4
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.2%#124 | 82.9%#355 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 25.0%#250 | 30.0%#111 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.4%#89 | 41.7%#235 | 34.7% |
| Three | 38.5%#77 | 33.3%#185 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineAlcorn St
−17.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#355 of 365
Off reb %
35.1%
#107
Def reb %
56.4%
#335
Turnover %
25.0%
#332
Forced TO %
14.2%
#289
FT rate
35.0%
#200
FT allowed
62.4%
#345
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding−4.0
Ball security−4.8
Forcing turnovers−2.8
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−6.4
Murray St
+8.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#72 of 365
Off reb %
33.8%
#130
Def reb %
73.9%
#85
Turnover %
19.1%
#220
Forced TO %
28.1%
#10
FT rate
43.1%
#103
FT allowed
47.7%
#286
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding+1.8
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+7.1
Foul shots drawn+1.5
Foul shots allowed−2.5
Murray St has more extra scoring chances per game: +8.0 (#72 of 365) to Alcorn St’s −17.3 (#355).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notAlcorn St2026-27 numbers · last game: Howard, Nov 5
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | G | So | 6'5" | 2-2 | 26.0 | 28 | — | Started last | 9.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 44.4% | 4.5 | — | 20.9% | |
| 3 | G | — | — | 2-2 | 24.0 | 24 | — | Started last | 12.0 | 1.5 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 95.0% | 71.4% | 3.5 | 50.0% | 25.7% | |
| 11 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 21.0 | 23 | — | Bench | 9.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 53.8% | 66.7% | 1.5 | 55.6% | 27.5% | |
| 2 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 19.5 | 15 | — | Bench | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 2.5 | 87.5% | 27.5% | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 1-1 | 33.0 | 33 | — | Started last | 27.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 44.4% | 30.8% | 13.0 | 75.0% | 54.7% | |
| 35 | C | So | 6'11" | 2-0 | 15.5 | 17 | — | Bench | 1.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 5.2% | |
| 13 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 2-2 | 14.0 | 19 | — | Started last | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 31.3% | 25.0% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 21.3% | |
| 7 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 2-1 | 12.5 | 11 | — | Bench | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 23.8% | |
| 15 | C | Sr | 7'1" | 2-2 | 11.0 | 9 | — | Started last | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 80.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 20.9% | |
| 23 | G | Fr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 11.0 | 14 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 13.4% | |
| 6 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 1 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 13.3% | |
| 10 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 7.5 | — | — | Active | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 10.8% | |
| 5 | F | Jr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 6.0 | — | — | Active | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 22.4% | |
| 8 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 11.0 | — | — | Missed last | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 2.0 | — | 14.6% | |
| 12 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 4.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 26.8% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesAlcorn St
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-1
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −6.0
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-0
avg vs total +18.0
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | Howard | H | L 83–94 | +9.5 | L−1.5 | 149.5 | O177 | 114.5 | 129.6 | 72.5 |
| Nov 2 | Ole Miss | A | L 58–99 | +30.5 | L−10.5 | 148.5 | O157 | 76.8 | 131.0 | 75.6 |
| Mar 10 | Prairie View | N | L 56–65 | +6.0 | L−3.0 | 142.5 | U121 | 84.2 | 97.7 | 66.5 |
| Mar 9 | Alabama St | N | W 77–65 | +7.5 | W+19.5 | 142.0 | P142 | 109.4 | 92.4 | 70.4 |
| Mar 5 | AR-Pine Bluff | H | L 48–83 | +1.0 | L−34.0 | 144.0 | U131 | 64.5 | 111.6 | 74.4 |
| Mar 3 | Miss Valley St | H | W 67–64 | −9.5 | L−6.5 | 139.0 | U131 | 103.7 | 99.1 | 64.6 |
| Feb 28 | Prairie View | A | L 51–72 | +4.5 | L−16.5 | 150.0 | U123 | 72.5 | 102.3 | 70.4 |
| Feb 26 | Texas Southern | A | L 87–92 OT | +6.5 | W+1.5 | 145.0 | O179 | 109.3 | 115.6 | 79.6 |
| Feb 21 | Jackson St | H | W 83–65 | −1.0 | W+17.0 | 149.0 | U148 | 115.8 | 90.7 | 71.7 |
| Feb 16 | Florida A&M | H | L 78–86 | +1.5 | L−6.5 | 137.0 | O164 | 109.0 | 120.1 | 71.6 |
Murray St
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +9.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +0.8
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | N'Western St | H | W 93–71 | −23.5 | L−1.5 | 155.5 | O164 | 128.3 | 97.9 | 72.5 |
| Nov 2 | Tennessee St | N | W 94–64 | −9.5 | W+20.5 | 165.0 | U158 | 111.6 | 76.0 | 84.2 |
| Mar 18 | Nevada | A | L 75–89 | +9.0 | L−5.0 | 160.0 | O164 | 103.8 | 123.2 | 72.2 |
| Mar 6 | UIC | N | L 79–92 | +1.0 | L−12.0 | 149.5 | O171 | 100.1 | 116.6 | 78.9 |
| Mar 1 | Bradley | A | L 78–87 | +4.0 | L−5.0 | 158.0 | O165 | 116.0 | 129.4 | 67.2 |
| Feb 21 | Evansville | H | W 88–75 | −14.0 | L−1.0 | 153.0 | O163 | 122.1 | 104.0 | 72.1 |
| Feb 18 | Illinois St | A | L 61–78 | +2.5 | L−14.5 | 158.5 | U139 | 93.9 | 120.1 | 64.9 |
| Feb 15 | Belmont | H | L 70–87 | +1.0 | L−16.0 | 166.5 | U157 | 95.6 | 118.8 | 73.2 |
| Feb 12 | Indiana St | A | W 74–72 | −3.5 | L−1.5 | 164.0 | U146 | 114.0 | 110.9 | 64.9 |
| Feb 9 | Northern Iowa | H | L 60–89 | −4.0 | L−33.0 | 145.0 | O149 | 91.8 | 136.2 | 65.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeAlcorn StMurray St
Efficiency
97.8
112.2
116.1
104.2
72.2
75.4
6.1
-7.8
Shooting
50.0%
59.3%
46.9%
60.6%
35.8%
38.5%
58.5%
77.4%
35.0%
43.1%
Ball control & glass
25.0%
19.1%
14.2%
28.1%
35.1%
33.8%
43.6%
26.1%
11.5%
9.6%
14.1%
5.6%
Style
45.3%
42.3%
28.4%
42.8%
14.2%
24.6%
67.3%
57.1%
50.7%
41.5%
Roster
2.65
2.52
6'6.5"
6'6.3"
0.0%
27.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputAlcorn St
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Nick Woodard 28.7 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Shane Lancaster 28.6 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to NC A&T
- Jameel Morris 27.7 mpg, 10.5 ppg · transferred to Bethune
- Tycen McDaniels 27.3 mpg, 12.0 ppg · transferred to UT Arlington
- Davian Williams 26.4 mpg, 7.8 ppg · transferred to Prairie View
- Omari Hamilton 21.4 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Ma'Kye Taylor from UAlbany · 13.3 mpg, 3.3 ppg last season
- Christian Richardson from Omaha · 12.8 mpg, 6.1 ppg last season
- Trey Thomas from S Indiana · 3.0 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
- Jayan Walker from Indiana St · 2.4 mpg, 0.8 ppg last season
- Braylhan Thomas from Winthrop · 1.5 mpg, 0.9 ppg last season
- Jahseem Felton from Seton Hall · 1.3 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Murray St
Returning minutes: 27.6%Returning production: 26.9%
Lost
- Javon Jackson 25.6 mpg, 16.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Fredrick King 24.0 mpg, 12.7 ppg · transferred to Creighton
- Layne Taylor 23.2 mpg, 7.5 ppg · transferred to Arkansas St
- Mason Miller 22.1 mpg, 5.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- JJ Traynor 21.9 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- KJ Tenner 16.5 mpg, 6.0 ppg · transferred to UTSA
Added
- Christian Jones from G Washington · 25.6 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
- Shon Tupuola from Valparaiso · 24.6 mpg, 6.4 ppg last season
- Brigham Rogers from Belmont · 18.2 mpg, 7.1 ppg last season
- Kaden Magwood from Auburn · 5.6 mpg, 1.9 ppg last season
- Mark Padjen no D1 minutes last season
- Lachlan Crate no D1 minutes last season
Returns 28% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -25.5→-31.5-108 | 164.5→166.5o-108 u-112 | — | +3500 |
| FanDuel | -24.5→-30.5-120 | 162.5→165.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -25.5→-31.5-115 | 164.5→166.5o-105 u-115 | — | +3300 |
| BetRivers | -25.5→-31.5-110 | 162.5→166.5o-108 u-114 | — | — |
| Caesars | -25.5→-31.5-110 | 164.5→166o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -25→-31.5-105 | 162.5→166o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| BetOnline | -25.5→-31-115 | 164.5→166o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -25.5→-31-115 | 164.5→166o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -25.5→-31.5-105 | 162.5→165.5o-120 u+100 | — | — |
| Hard Rock | -25.5→-31.5-110 | 162.5→165.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 164.5o-113 u+108 | — | — |
| Polymarket | -24.5→-30.5-122 | 162.5→165.5o-113 u+100 | — | — |
| Novig | -31.5+102 | 165.5o-108 u+100 | — | — |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.