CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceRose Hill Gym, Bronx, NY
Iona
Efficiency #227
2025-26: 18-14 · 10-11 conf
@
Fordham
Efficiency #170
2025-26: 17-15 · 8-11 conf
Tue, Nov 10 · TBD
67.0
win 30%
Projected
72.9
win 70%
No line posted yet.
Model: FOR −5.9 · total 140.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Fordham 66.2, Iona 69.4 → 67.3 possessions
−2.1
Fordham offense vs Iona defense
−2.0
Iona offense vs Fordham defense
−4.1
Projected total
140.0
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Fordham offense vs Iona defense
−2.0
Iona offense vs Fordham defense
+4.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Fordham by 5.9
5.9
Iona side ◂▸ Fordham side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +6.0 against +5.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Fordham.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Iona is the faster team (68.4, #177 of 365) and Fordham the slower (64.5, #341). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
140.0
model
Projected team totals
67.0 / 72.9
Iona / Fordham
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.4#87
Iona
66.2#334
Fordham

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageFordham
Where Fordham struggles: shooting
Fordham shoots an effective 48.6% (#300); Iona allows 48.9% (#64). Expect about 48.5%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Fordham averages 64.5 possessions per 40, Iona 68.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageIona
Where Iona struggles: the offensive glass
Iona rebounds 27.8% of its own misses (#274); Fordham lets opponents grab 26.8% of their own misses (#29). Expect about 26.8%, 3.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Fordham, Iona's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Iona at about 46.4% of its shots from three, Fordham about 39.3%.
GlassFordham
Fordham owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.4% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for Fordham's offense.
Iona has the ball
OffenseFordham allowsvs D1 avg
51.9% #149
49.9% #95
-0.5 pt/100
17.2% #221
17.2% #136
-0.6 pt/100
27.8% #274
26.8% #29
-2.2 pt/100
29.3% #326
30.3% #66
-0.7 pt/100
70.7% #250
—
-0.2 pt/100
Iona net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.1 pts/100
Fordham has the ball
OffenseIona allowsvs D1 avg
48.6% #300
48.9% #64
-3.9 pt/100
17.2% #218
16.6% #178
-0.2 pt/100
34.1% #64
31.2% #212
+1.8 pt/100
26.4% #354
28.8% #40
-1.0 pt/100
70.2% #265
—
-0.2 pt/100
Fordham net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Ionaoffense vsFordhamdefense
Share of shots by zone
Iona shoots
Fordham allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.7%#28157.7%#13758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.2%#24138.1%#13739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.8%#11739.0%#20338.0%
Three35.1%#10533.4%#14933.7%
Fordhamoffense vsIonadefense
Share of shots by zone
Fordham shoots
Iona allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#22557.4%#12658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.0%#22139.5%#17439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.3%#3335.9%#10738.0%
Three28.9%#35630.6%#2533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Iona
−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#242 of 365
Off reb %
27.8%
#274
Def reb %
68.8%
#212
Turnover %
17.2%
#221
Forced TO %
16.6%
#178
FT rate
29.3%
#326
FT allowed
28.8%
#40
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed+1.7
Fordham
+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#117 of 365
Off reb %
34.1%
#64
Def reb %
73.2%
#29
Turnover %
17.2%
#218
Forced TO %
17.2%
#136
FT rate
26.4%
#354
FT allowed
30.3%
#66
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn−2.2
Foul shots allowed+1.3

Fordham has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#117 of 365) to Iona’s −1.2 (#242).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Iona2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
5Kevon Vanderhorstat DrexelGSr6'2"33-3329.99.32.82.91.550.0%26.3%2.976.1%20.8%
95Martin Kheilat Idaho StGJr6'5"31-2729.69.12.41.20.951.7%35.3%6.178.8%18.6%
8Aiden Disuat Holy CrossFSo6'7"29-2927.410.85.10.81.650.0%29.6%2.479.7%25.4%
3Kosy AkametuGSr6'5"29-2824.311.05.00.91.547.2%30.1%3.276.7%29.1%
44Alliou FallFSo6'10"31-1318.92.74.11.11.343.9%0.0%0.150.0%13.2%
7Luke JungersFSr6'9"30-116.26.01.90.20.565.7%43.9%3.378.1%18.2%
11Sadiku Ibine Ayoat St John'sFSr6'6"30-17.71.81.00.40.349.1%31.6%0.6100.0%14.7%
22Keyshawn Mitchellat VCUFSr6'11"20-210.63.22.60.50.545.7%20.8%1.265.6%19.2%
12Oscar Hourruitiner Jr.GSo6'0"6-01.70.00.30.00.00.0%0.0%0.2—17.7%
00Ore OdutayoFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Abram WilliamsGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Daniel DoyleGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24Max MoshinskiGFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
4Micah TannenbaumGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
21Nathan KirkGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Oliver SassellaGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Panagiotis LefasGFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Aiden Disu (from Holy Cross), Sadiku Ibine Ayo (from St John's), Martin Kheil (from Idaho St), Keyshawn Mitchell (from VCU), Kevon Vanderhorst (from Drexel)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
IonaFordham
Efficiency
105.8
105.4
108.5
105.1
69.4
66.2
—
—
Shooting
51.9%
48.6%
51.2%
51.9%
35.1%
28.9%
70.7%
70.2%
29.3%
26.4%
Ball control & glass
17.2%
17.2%
16.6%
17.2%
27.8%
34.1%
31.2%
26.8%
10.7%
8.8%
11.1%
8.5%
Style
45.9%
38.3%
40.3%
48.9%
11.8%
11.1%
53.7%
52.4%
31.4%
29.5%
Roster
3.25
3.07
6'6"
6'5.8"
27.4%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Iona
Returning minutes: 27.4%Returning production: 24.8%
Lost
  • CJ Anthony 30.8 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Lamin Sabally 29.4 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Denver Anglin 27.2 mpg, 9.0 ppg · transferred to Merrimack
  • Toby Harris 26.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Keshawn Williams 11.5 mpg, 4.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Khalil Badru 9.8 mpg, 3.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Kevon Vanderhorst from Drexel · 29.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
  • Martin Kheil from Idaho St · 27.8 mpg, 8.5 ppg last season
  • Aiden Disu from Holy Cross · 24.1 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
  • Sadiku Ibine Ayo from St John's · 6.2 mpg, 1.4 ppg last season
  • Keyshawn Mitchell from VCU · 5.9 mpg, 1.8 ppg last season
  • Ore Odutayo no D1 minutes last season

Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Fordham
Returning minutes: 99.6%Returning production: 99.7%
ESPN hasn't posted Fordham's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Fri, Nov 142025-26Fordham 71 – 76 Iona

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.