CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMcGuirk Arena, Mount Pleasant, MI
Youngstown St
Efficiency #204
2025-26: 15-17 · 8-13 conf
@
C Michigan
Efficiency #283
2025-26: 10-21 · 6-12 conf
Tue, Nov 10 · TBD
73.3
win 48%
Projected
74.0
win 52%
No line posted yet.
Model: CMU −0.7 · total 147.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: C Michigan 68.1, Youngstown St 68.3 → 68.1 possessions
−0.5
C Michigan offense vs Youngstown St defense
−1.8
Youngstown St offense vs C Michigan defense
+1.4
Projected total
147.4
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
C Michigan offense vs Youngstown St defense
−1.8
Youngstown St offense vs C Michigan defense
−1.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
C Michigan by 0.7
0.7
Youngstown St side ◂▸ C Michigan side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 147.3 against a projected 147.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help C Michigan.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Youngstown St is the faster team (68.6, #169 of 365) and C Michigan the slower (68.3, #185). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.4
model
Projected team totals
73.3 / 74.0
Youngstown St / C Michigan
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.3#187
Youngstown St
68.1#198
C Michigan
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageYoungstown St
Where Youngstown St scores: shooting
Youngstown St shoots an effective 53.7% (#76); C Michigan allows 54.0% (#299). Expect about 54.0%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.9 points per 100 possessions.
ClashC Michigan
Style match: 3-point volume
C Michigan rarely shoots threes (34.0% of its shots); Youngstown St runs teams off the line (34.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.8% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageC Michigan
Where C Michigan struggles: ball control
C Michigan turns it over on 18.1% of possessions (#276); Youngstown St forces turnovers on 17.8% of opponent possessions (#106). Expect about 18.2%, 1.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversYoungstown St
Youngstown St turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.1% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against Youngstown St's offense.
ClashC Michigan
Style match: paint scoring
C Michigan scores 47.8% of its points in the paint; Youngstown St gives up 46.9% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.4% — both habits push the same way.
Youngstown St has the ball
OffenseC Michigan allowsvs D1 avg
53.7% #76
54.0% #299
+3.9 pt/100
18.8% #313
17.0% #156
-1.6 pt/100
30.4% #182
34.3% #323
+1.2 pt/100
31.4% #272
39.0% #284
+0.1 pt/100
73.3% #159
—
+0.1 pt/100
Youngstown St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.6 pts/100
C Michigan has the ball
OffenseYoungstown St allowsvs D1 avg
51.8% #158
52.3% #228
+1.1 pt/100
18.1% #276
17.8% #106
-1.8 pt/100
29.2% #230
30.7% #191
-0.4 pt/100
31.4% #269
36.0% #210
-0.1 pt/100
69.7% #277
—
-0.2 pt/100
C Michigan net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersYoungstown Stoffense vsC Michigandefense
Share of shots by zone
Youngstown St shoots
39.9
5.3
5.5
49.2
C Michigan allows
44.8
6.0
10.8
38.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.9%#75 | 61.1%#270 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 31.3%#337 | 44.2%#270 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.4%#176 | 31.6%#14 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.8%#184 | 35.5%#282 | 33.7% |
C Michiganoffense vsYoungstown Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
C Michigan shoots
38.2
10.0
18.5
33.3
Youngstown St allows
42.4
8.0
15.8
33.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.3%#154 | 59.8%#217 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 46.8%#41 | 37.4%#123 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.4%#99 | 33.6%#41 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.9%#181 | 35.5%#280 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersYoungstown St
−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#263 of 365
Off reb %
30.4%
#182
Def reb %
69.3%
#191
Turnover %
18.8%
#313
Forced TO %
17.8%
#106
FT rate
31.4%
#272
FT allowed
36.0%
#210
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security−1.4
Forcing turnovers+0.8
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed−0.2
C Michigan
−4.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#330 of 365
Off reb %
29.2%
#230
Def reb %
65.7%
#323
Turnover %
18.1%
#276
Forced TO %
17.0%
#156
FT rate
31.4%
#269
FT allowed
39.0%
#284
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding−1.2
Ball security−0.9
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed−1.0
Youngstown St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.8 (#263 of 365) to C Michigan’s −4.2 (#330).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Youngstown St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cris Carroll | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 30.3 | 17.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 59.4% | 39.6% | 7.1 | 78.0% | 32.7% | |
| 9 | Bryson Dawkins | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 26.8 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 56.9% | 30.7% | 3.2 | 61.4% | 27.5% | |
| 2 | Rich Rolf | F | Jr | 6'7" | 31-30 | 26.6 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 56.7% | 36.8% | 4.0 | 88.1% | 19.4% | |
| 0 | Jason Nelson | G | Sr | 5'10" | 31-31 | 25.0 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 44.1% | 28.0% | 2.4 | 75.0% | 20.3% | |
| 6 | Drew King | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-1 | 17.4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 50.9% | 29.4% | 0.5 | 71.1% | 12.5% | |
| 1 | Cam Polak | G | Sr | 6'2" | 29-10 | 17.2 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 55.3% | 38.5% | 3.6 | 79.3% | 21.5% | |
| 7 | Vlad Salaridze | F | Sr | 6'7" | 27-4 | 17.7 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 50.9% | 33.3% | 2.4 | 77.6% | 28.3% | |
| 10 | Imanuel Zorgvol | C | Sr | 7'0" | 32-14 | 14.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 65.2% | 33.3% | 0.4 | 69.6% | 21.7% | |
| 8 | Jaiden Haynes | G | Fr | 6'3" | 21-2 | 16.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 52.9% | 33.3% | 2.3 | 81.8% | 18.5% | |
| 4 | Tyler Robinett | F | Sr | 6'8" | 11-4 | 12.5 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 44.1% | 16.7% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 18.5% | |
| 5 | Shaheed Solebo | G | Fr | 6'4" | 7-0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 40.9% | 16.7% | 0.9 | 53.8% | 35.7% | |
| 3 | Derrick Anderson | G | Sr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 57.7% | 16.7% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 38.7% | |
| 21 | Connor Swider | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Markus Navarra | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
C Michigan2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jayson Pettyat Kansas City | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 31.1 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 49.0% | 33.5% | 5.3 | 83.3% | 22.2% | |
| 10 | Phat Phat Brooks | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-27 | 28.1 | 11.0 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 43.2% | 17.6% | 1.1 | 73.3% | 27.3% | |
| 13 | Keenan Garner | F | Jr | 6'7" | 31-18 | 24.2 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 56.1% | 47.1% | 0.5 | 59.2% | 19.9% | |
| 3 | Jaxson Whitaker | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-6 | 18.2 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 52.3% | 34.5% | 3.7 | 83.3% | 17.8% | |
| 2 | Jalen Kampen | G | So | 6'4" | 20-0 | 13.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 49.3% | 31.3% | 1.6 | 68.8% | 18.3% | |
| 4 | Kareem Aburashed | C | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Nsikan Usen | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Uchenna Amene | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Brock Mendoza | C | Sr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 55 | Conrad Luczynski | C | Sr | 7'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Jacob Wrencher | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Jake Bascom | F | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 20 | Jayden Hackett | G | Sr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 40 | Travis Ambrose | F | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Tyre Acuff | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Jayson Petty (from Kansas City)
Youngstown St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cris Carroll | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 30.3 | 17.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 59.4% | 39.6% | 7.1 | 78.0% | 32.7% | |
| 9 | Bryson Dawkins | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 26.8 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 56.9% | 30.7% | 3.2 | 61.4% | 27.5% | |
| 2 | Rich Rolf | F | Jr | 6'7" | 31-30 | 26.6 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 56.7% | 36.8% | 4.0 | 88.1% | 19.4% | |
| 0 | Jason Nelson | G | Sr | 5'10" | 31-31 | 25.0 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 44.1% | 28.0% | 2.4 | 75.0% | 20.3% | |
| 6 | Drew King | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-1 | 17.4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 50.9% | 29.4% | 0.5 | 71.1% | 12.5% | |
| 1 | Cam Polak | G | Sr | 6'2" | 29-10 | 17.2 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 55.3% | 38.5% | 3.6 | 79.3% | 21.5% | |
| 7 | Vlad Salaridze | F | Sr | 6'7" | 27-4 | 17.7 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 50.9% | 33.3% | 2.4 | 77.6% | 28.3% | |
| 10 | Imanuel Zorgvol | C | Sr | 7'0" | 32-14 | 14.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 65.2% | 33.3% | 0.4 | 69.6% | 21.7% | |
| 8 | Jaiden Haynes | G | Fr | 6'3" | 21-2 | 16.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 52.9% | 33.3% | 2.3 | 81.8% | 18.5% | |
| 4 | Tyler Robinett | F | Sr | 6'8" | 11-4 | 12.5 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 44.1% | 16.7% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 18.5% | |
| 5 | Shaheed Solebo | G | Fr | 6'4" | 7-0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 40.9% | 16.7% | 0.9 | 53.8% | 35.7% | |
| 3 | Derrick Anderson | G | Sr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 57.7% | 16.7% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 38.7% | |
| 21 | Connor Swider | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Markus Navarra | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Youngstown St
Against the spread
Season
10-18-1
Home
4-8
Road
5-9-1
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −0.9
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-14
Home
5-7
Road
10-5
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −0.8
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Robert Morris | A | L 53–68 | +4.0 | L−11.0 | 143.5 | U121 | 84.9 | 109.0 | 62.4 |
| Feb 28 | Green Bay | A | L 63–85 | +1.5 | L−20.5 | 142.0 | O148 | 96.4 | 130.0 | 65.4 |
| Feb 25 | Milwaukee | A | L 65–78 | −1.0 | L−14.0 | 148.5 | U143 | 94.9 | 113.9 | 68.5 |
| Feb 22 | N Kentucky | H | W 64–58 | −2.0 | W+4.0 | 152.5 | U122 | 86.5 | 78.4 | 73.9 |
| Feb 18 | Cleveland St | H | W 106–82 | −11.0 | W+13.0 | 156.5 | O188 | 151.0 | 116.8 | 70.2 |
| Feb 15 | Detroit Mercy | A | L 70–76 | −3.0 | L−9.0 | 150.5 | U146 | 97.9 | 106.3 | 71.5 |
| Feb 12 | Oakland | A | W 86–82 | +4.0 | W+8.0 | 156.0 | O168 | 123.1 | 117.4 | 69.8 |
| Feb 7 | Robert Morris | H | L 66–72 | −3.5 | L−9.5 | 144.0 | U138 | 102.2 | 111.5 | 64.6 |
| Feb 4 | Purdue FW | A | W 90–61 | +2.5 | W+31.5 | 147.0 | O151 | 141.6 | 96.0 | 63.5 |
| Jan 30 | IU Indy | H | W 85–76 | −10.5 | L−1.5 | 154.0 | O161 | 116.0 | 103.7 | 73.3 |
C Michigan
Against the spread
Season
15-13-1
Home
7-3-1
Road
6-10
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +6.0
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
13-16
Home
5-6
Road
8-8
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +0.5
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Ball State | A | L 69–85 | +2.0 | L−14.0 | 135.0 | O154 | 102.1 | 125.8 | 67.6 |
| Mar 3 | Akron | H | L 64–77 | +11.5 | L−1.5 | 158.5 | U141 | 94.1 | 113.2 | 68.0 |
| Feb 28 | Buffalo | A | W 75–70 | +6.0 | W+11.0 | 149.5 | U145 | 117.8 | 109.9 | 63.7 |
| Feb 24 | Kent State | A | L 81–83 | +12.0 | W+10.0 | 157.0 | O164 | 121.1 | 124.1 | 66.9 |
| Feb 21 | W Michigan | H | W 83–70 | −3.5 | W+9.5 | 151.5 | O153 | 111.5 | 94.0 | 74.5 |
| Feb 17 | E Michigan | A | L 54–66 | +5.0 | L−7.0 | 143.0 | U120 | 81.4 | 99.5 | 66.3 |
| Feb 14 | N Illinois | H | W 88–46 | −4.5 | W+37.5 | 146.0 | U134 | 128.9 | 67.4 | 68.3 |
| Feb 7 | Louisiana | A | L 80–85 | +2.5 | L−2.5 | 134.0 | O165 | 125.0 | 132.8 | 64.0 |
| Feb 3 | UMass | A | L 89–95 | +11.5 | W+5.5 | 152.5 | O184 | 127.4 | 136.0 | 69.8 |
| Jan 31 | Bowling Green | H | W 62–59 | +9.0 | W+12.0 | 149.0 | U121 | 88.1 | 83.8 | 70.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeYoungstown StC Michigan
Efficiency
106.8
106.1
108.3
112.3
68.3
68.1
—
—
Shooting
53.7%
51.8%
56.6%
52.2%
33.8%
33.9%
73.3%
69.7%
31.4%
31.4%
Ball control & glass
18.8%
18.1%
17.8%
17.0%
30.4%
29.2%
30.7%
34.3%
10.8%
11.1%
9.7%
8.8%
Style
49.4%
34.0%
42.0%
47.8%
14.0%
15.0%
53.8%
54.9%
36.9%
31.5%
Roster
3.58
3.20
6'4.3"
6'4.1"
93.2%
39.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputYoungstown St
Returning minutes: 93.2%Returning production: 94.3%
Lost
- Tae Blackshear 13.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Niagara
Added
- Connor Swider no D1 minutes last season
- Markus Navarra no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
C Michigan
Returning minutes: 39.7%Returning production: 34.3%
Lost
- Nathan Claerbaut 29.1 mpg, 12.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tamario Adley 29.0 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Logan McIntire 23.8 mpg, 10.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nick Mullen 19.0 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Will Ashford 9.9 mpg, 2.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Rodney Johnson Jr. 5.0 mpg, 2.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jayson Petty from Kansas City · 31.1 mpg, 11.1 ppg last season
- Conrad Luczynski no D1 minutes last season
- Uchenna Amene no D1 minutes last season
- Tyre Acuff no D1 minutes last season
- Jacob Wrencher no D1 minutes last season
- Kareem Aburashed no D1 minutes last season
Returns 40% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.