CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMemorial Gymnasium (TN), Nashville, TN

Memphis

Efficiency #152

2025-26: 13-19 · 8-11 conf

Vanderbilt

Efficiency #12

2025-26: 27-9 · 13-8 conf

Tue, Nov 10 · TBD

69.9

win 10%

Projected

85.0

win 90%

No line posted yet.

Model: VAN −15.1 · total 154.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Vanderbilt 69.2, Memphis 70.1 → 71.0 possessions

+5.8

Vanderbilt offense vs Memphis defense

+5.9

Memphis offense vs Vanderbilt defense

−5.1

Projected total

154.8

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Vanderbilt offense vs Memphis defense

+5.9

Memphis offense vs Vanderbilt defense

+5.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Vanderbilt by 15.1

15.1

Memphis side ◂▸ Vanderbilt side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Vanderbilt.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Memphis is the faster team (71.4, #37 of 365) and Vanderbilt the slower (70.4, #77). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.8

model

Projected team totals

69.9 / 85.0

Memphis / Vanderbilt

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.1#44

Memphis

69.2#105

Vanderbilt

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMemphis

Where Memphis struggles: shooting

Memphis shoots an effective 48.7% (#298); Vanderbilt allows 49.0% (#67). Expect about 48.6%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.8 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Track meet

Vanderbilt averages 70.4 possessions per 40, Memphis 71.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

GlassMemphis

Memphis owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.3% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for Memphis's offense.

DefenseVanderbilt

Vanderbilt's shot-blocking

Vanderbilt ranks #40 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.8% of Memphis's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

TurnoversMemphis

Memphis turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.6% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Memphis's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Memphis's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Memphis at about 33.8% of its shots from three, Vanderbilt about 45.7%.

Memphis has the ball

OffenseVanderbilt allowsvs D1 avg

48.7% #298

49.0% #67

-3.8 pt/100

18.9% #317

17.7% #111

-2.2 pt/100

35.3% #41

31.5% #231

+2.4 pt/100

34.7% #190

39.5% #295

+0.3 pt/100

72.1% #205

—

-0.0 pt/100

Memphis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.3 pts/100

Vanderbilt has the ball

OffenseMemphis allowsvs D1 avg

55.3% #31

48.7% #55

+1.5 pt/100

13.5% #15

18.5% #70

+0.9 pt/100

31.2% #158

35.6% #350

+1.9 pt/100

38.1% #101

42.4% #329

+0.7 pt/100

78.9% #5

—

+0.6 pt/100

Vanderbilt net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Memphisoffense vsVanderbiltdefense

Share of shots by zone

Memphis shoots

37.6

6.9

22.0

33.5

Vanderbilt allows

37.6

6.5

19.0

37.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.8%#205	55.2%#65	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.5%#207	39.3%#166	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.5%#169	34.1%#52	38.0%
Three	31.6%#303	32.6%#96	33.7%

Vanderbiltoffense vsMemphisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Vanderbilt shoots

35.2

5.1

15.3

44.4

Memphis allows

35.7

5.6

16.2

42.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	65.2%#19	59.0%#190	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.3%#97	44.8%#292	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.2%#139	34.3%#55	38.0%
Three	35.6%#86	30.5%#22	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Memphis

−2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#275 of 365

Off reb %

35.3%

#41

Def reb %

64.4%

#350

Turnover %

18.9%

#317

Forced TO %

18.5%

#70

FT rate

34.7%

#190

FT allowed

42.4%

#329

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed−1.8

Vanderbilt

+2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#73 of 365

Off reb %

31.2%

#158

Def reb %

68.5%

#231

Turnover %

13.5%

#15

Forced TO %

17.7%

#111

FT rate

38.1%

#101

FT allowed

39.5%

#295

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security+2.3

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn+0.8

Foul shots allowed−1.1

Vanderbilt has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.6 (#73 of 365) to Memphis’s −2.2 (#275).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Memphis2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Dug McDaniel	G	Sr	5'11"	32-32	34.4	13.9	3.7	4.6	2.6	47.2%	32.9%	4.6	84.9%	26.6%
5	Curtis Givens III	G	So	6'3"	25-15	25.6	9.4	2.1	2.3	1.6	52.4%	36.5%	3.8	66.1%	22.4%
2	Zach Davis	G	Sr	6'7"	29-11	21.0	7.2	4.2	1.1	1.8	47.0%	27.8%	2.5	75.5%	23.9%
23	Sincere Parker	G	Sr	6'3"	31-4	19.5	11.4	3.7	1.1	0.9	46.2%	32.9%	2.7	79.8%	34.4%
15	Julius Thedford	G	So	6'4"	27-17	20.4	8.4	5.0	0.7	0.9	53.8%	34.1%	1.6	68.2%	22.5%
11	Aaron Bradshaw	F	Jr	7'1"	29-22	18.9	8.6	4.2	0.6	1.4	56.3%	33.3%	0.9	77.2%	25.3%
0	Quante Berry	G	Jr	6'4"	30-11	18.0	6.1	2.5	1.2	1.0	46.5%	29.8%	2.8	69.8%	21.7%
3	Ashton Hardaway	F	Jr	6'8"	25-9	19.6	5.6	2.5	1.4	1.2	48.8%	34.3%	2.7	73.7%	19.4%
31	Thierno Sylla	C	Sr	6'11"	23-14	13.9	3.8	2.5	0.3	0.7	50.8%	0.0%	0.2	60.0%	16.9%
10	Simon Majok	C	Fr	7'1"	25-10	12.4	2.9	2.4	0.2	0.6	48.9%	28.6%	0.3	71.8%	14.4%
14	Hasan Abdul Hakim	G	Sr	6'8"	13-10	22.4	6.2	4.1	1.8	2.2	42.0%	15.8%	1.5	60.7%	22.8%
19	Tariq Ingraham	F	Sr	6'9"	25-1	9.2	3.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	20.5%
12	William Whorton	F	So	6'8"	19-4	8.9	1.8	1.5	0.2	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	55.6%	15.3%
8	Mason Matthews	F	Sr	6'8"	7-0	3.3	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	21.4%	16.7%	0.9	—	16.7%
4	Arop Arop	F	Jr	6'11"	9-0	2.4	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	22.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Vanderbilt2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Tyler Tanner	G	So	6'0"	36-36	33.5	19.5	3.6	5.1	1.9	54.9%	36.8%	4.5	85.3%	30.4%
7	Chandler Bing	G	Fr	6'5"	35-0	15.3	3.7	1.6	0.4	0.6	53.9%	28.9%	1.1	63.5%	14.8%
8	Tyler Harris	F	Jr	6'7"	29-2	13.2	5.7	2.4	0.3	0.4	47.8%	28.7%	2.8	53.3%	26.4%
0	Mike James	G	Jr	6'5"	21-0	11.2	1.5	2.0	0.8	0.3	41.2%	33.3%	1.1	57.1%	10.7%
1	Frankie Collins	G	Sr	6'1"	9-0	20.9	7.8	4.2	4.7	2.2	41.8%	25.0%	1.8	66.7%	26.4%
34	Jayden Leverett	C	Fr	6'11"	26-0	4.0	1.0	1.2	0.0	0.0	61.8%	50.0%	0.1	57.1%	11.8%
12	Jaylon Dean-Vines	G	Fr	6'4"	10-0	2.5	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.2	90.0%	50.0%	0.2	0.0%	16.5%
25	Miles Keeffe	G	Sr	6'5"	11-0	1.9	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.2	31.3%	33.3%	0.3	—	27.0%
50	Mason Nicholson	F	Sr	6'9"	5-0	4.0	0.4	1.0	0.0	0.2	50.0%	—	0.0	—	7.9%
15	Coleson Messer	G	So	6'4"	7-0	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	18.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Memphis2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Dug McDaniel	G	Sr	5'11"	32-32	34.4	13.9	3.7	4.6	2.6	47.2%	32.9%	4.6	84.9%	26.6%
5	Curtis Givens III	G	So	6'3"	25-15	25.6	9.4	2.1	2.3	1.6	52.4%	36.5%	3.8	66.1%	22.4%
2	Zach Davis	G	Sr	6'7"	29-11	21.0	7.2	4.2	1.1	1.8	47.0%	27.8%	2.5	75.5%	23.9%
23	Sincere Parker	G	Sr	6'3"	31-4	19.5	11.4	3.7	1.1	0.9	46.2%	32.9%	2.7	79.8%	34.4%
15	Julius Thedford	G	So	6'4"	27-17	20.4	8.4	5.0	0.7	0.9	53.8%	34.1%	1.6	68.2%	22.5%
11	Aaron Bradshaw	F	Jr	7'1"	29-22	18.9	8.6	4.2	0.6	1.4	56.3%	33.3%	0.9	77.2%	25.3%
0	Quante Berry	G	Jr	6'4"	30-11	18.0	6.1	2.5	1.2	1.0	46.5%	29.8%	2.8	69.8%	21.7%
3	Ashton Hardaway	F	Jr	6'8"	25-9	19.6	5.6	2.5	1.4	1.2	48.8%	34.3%	2.7	73.7%	19.4%
31	Thierno Sylla	C	Sr	6'11"	23-14	13.9	3.8	2.5	0.3	0.7	50.8%	0.0%	0.2	60.0%	16.9%
10	Simon Majok	C	Fr	7'1"	25-10	12.4	2.9	2.4	0.2	0.6	48.9%	28.6%	0.3	71.8%	14.4%
14	Hasan Abdul Hakim	G	Sr	6'8"	13-10	22.4	6.2	4.1	1.8	2.2	42.0%	15.8%	1.5	60.7%	22.8%
19	Tariq Ingraham	F	Sr	6'9"	25-1	9.2	3.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	20.5%
12	William Whorton	F	So	6'8"	19-4	8.9	1.8	1.5	0.2	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	55.6%	15.3%
8	Mason Matthews	F	Sr	6'8"	7-0	3.3	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	21.4%	16.7%	0.9	—	16.7%
4	Arop Arop	F	Jr	6'11"	9-0	2.4	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	22.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Memphis

Against the spread

Season

14-18

Home

10-6

Road

2-11

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −7.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

16-16

Home

8-8

Road

8-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +7.5

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	TulaneAdjEM #239	N	L 69–81	−4.5	L−16.5	150.5	U150	97.8	114.8	70.5
Mar 8	TulaneAdjEM #239	A	W 96–95 OT	−2.5	L−1.5	154.0	O191	124.2	122.9	77.3
Mar 5	South FloridaAdjEM #36	H	L 89–96	+7.5	W+0.5	161.5	O185	114.8	123.8	77.5
Mar 1	East CarolinaAdjEM #272	A	L 68–84	−4.0	L−20.0	153.5	U152	92.5	114.3	73.5
Feb 26	Wichita StAdjEM #60	H	L 82–88	−1.0	L−7.0	149.5	O170	114.1	122.4	71.9
Feb 22	UABAdjEM #111	H	L 67–78	−6.0	L−17.0	152.0	U145	93.4	108.7	71.8
Feb 19	South FloridaAdjEM #36	A	L 66–87	+9.5	L−11.5	163.5	U153	94.2	124.2	70.1
Feb 14	Utah StateAdjEM #24	A	L 75–99	+14.0	L−10.0	154.5	O174	104.7	138.2	71.6
Feb 12	North TexasAdjEM #151	A	L 69–76	−1.5	L−8.5	138.0	O145	100.3	110.5	68.8
Feb 8	CharlotteAdjEM #193	H	W 77–54	−9.5	W+13.5	144.5	U131	110.9	77.8	69.4

Vanderbilt

Against the spread

Season

17-18-1

Home

8-8

Road

5-6-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.2

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 1 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-19

Home

8-8

Road

6-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.5

Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	#4NebraskaAdjEM #17	N	L 72–74	−2.0	L−4.0	147.5	U146	112.7	115.8	63.9
Mar 19	#12McNeeseAdjEM #49	N	W 78–68	−12.0	L−2.0	148.0	U146	122.1	106.4	63.9
Mar 15	#17ArkansasAdjEM #19	N	L 75–86	−2.0	L−13.0	164.5	U161	107.0	122.6	70.1
Mar 14	#4FloridaAdjEM #5	N	W 91–74	+7.0	W+24.0	160.0	O165	142.4	115.8	63.9
Mar 13	#25TennesseeAdjEM #13	N	W 75–68	+2.0	W+9.0	147.0	U143	120.3	109.1	62.4
Mar 7	#23TennesseeAdjEM #13	A	W 86–82	+3.0	W+7.0	145.5	O168	117.7	112.2	73.1
Mar 3	Ole MissAdjEM #82	A	W 89–86 OT	−7.0	L−4.0	155.5	O175	115.6	111.7	77.0
Feb 28	KentuckyAdjEM #27	A	L 77–91	+1.0	L−13.0	157.5	O168	113.2	133.7	68.0
Feb 25	GeorgiaAdjEM #32	H	W 88–80	−7.5	W+0.5	163.0	O168	133.2	121.1	66.1
Feb 21	TennesseeAdjEM #13	H	L 65–69	−3.0	L−7.0	150.0	U134	102.7	109.1	63.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MemphisVanderbilt

Efficiency

106.9

119.5

105.8

102.9

70.1

69.2

—

Shooting

48.7%

55.3%

49.4%

56.9%

31.6%

35.6%

72.1%

78.9%

34.7%

38.1%

Ball control & glass

18.9%

13.5%

18.5%

17.7%

35.3%

31.2%

35.6%

31.5%

11.3%

7.4%

10.4%

7.4%

Style

33.7%

44.2%

44.9%

40.4%

17.0%

13.8%

49.8%

56.4%

40.2%

28.8%

Roster

3.19

2.15

6'5.6"

6'3"

—

37.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Memphis

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Vanderbilt

Returning minutes: 37.6%Returning production: 36.1%

Lost

Tyler Nickel 30.5 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
AK Okereke 26.2 mpg, 9.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Devin McGlockton 25.3 mpg, 9.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Duke Miles 23.0 mpg, 12.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jalen Washington 20.6 mpg, 8.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 38% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Dec 17	2025-26	Vanderbilt 77 – 70 Memphis

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.