CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceTucker Center, Tallahassee, FL
Florida
Efficiency #5
2025-26: 27-8 · 17-3 conf
@
Florida St
Efficiency #74
2025-26: 18-15 · 11-9 conf
Tue, Nov 10 · TBD
82.7
win 71%
Projected
76.3
win 29%
No line posted yet.
Model: FLA −6.5 · total 159.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Florida St 70.5, Florida 70.2 → 72.4 possessions
+8.9
Florida St offense vs Florida defense
−4.4
Florida offense vs Florida St defense
+6.2
Projected total
159.0
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Florida St offense vs Florida defense
−4.4
Florida offense vs Florida St defense
−6.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.2
Florida by 6.5
6.5
Florida side ◂▸ Florida St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 158.9 against a projected 159.0, and the margin steps add to −6.4 against −6.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Florida St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 72.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Florida is the faster team (72.0, #23 of 365) and Florida St the slower (71.8, #27). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
72.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
159.0
model
Projected team totals
82.7 / 76.3
Florida / Florida St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.2#35
Florida
70.5#26
Florida St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageFlorida
Where Florida scores: the offensive glass
Florida rebounds 43.3% of its own misses (#2); Florida St lets opponents grab 34.1% of their own misses (#319). Expect about 41.2%, 10.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.6 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
Florida St averages 71.8 possessions per 40, Florida 72.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 74 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageFlorida St
Where Florida St struggles: shooting
Florida St shoots an effective 52.3% (#132); Florida allows 46.1% (#10). Expect about 49.3%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversFlorida St
Florida St protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.9% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Florida St's offense.
ClashFlorida St
Style clash: 3-point volume
Florida St takes 50.6% of its shots from three; Florida runs teams off the line (34.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 44.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashFlorida St
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
Florida St (#53 in 2-point shooting) against Florida (#8 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 50.1%. Historically Florida St's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
Florida has the ball
OffenseFlorida St allowsvs D1 avg
54.1% #63
52.2% #226
+3.1 pt/100
16.3% #160
19.0% #52
-1.4 pt/100
43.3% #2
34.1% #319
+6.6 pt/100
39.0% #80
32.7% #122
+0.1 pt/100
71.2% #232
—
-0.1 pt/100
Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.2 pts/100
Florida St has the ball
OffenseFlorida allowsvs D1 avg
52.3% #132
46.1% #10
-2.9 pt/100
15.2% #83
15.3% #269
+2.3 pt/100
30.8% #170
24.8% #7
-1.5 pt/100
34.7% #191
34.0% #153
-0.1 pt/100
71.3% #231
—
-0.1 pt/100
Florida St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.3 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersFloridaoffense vsFlorida Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Florida shoots
44.2
7.3
10.3
38.2
Florida St allows
32.9
5.7
15.5
45.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.9%#24 | 60.2%#236 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.9%#52 | 38.8%#154 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.4%#97 | 38.8%#194 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.2%#315 | 34.6%#228 | 33.7% |
Florida Stoffense vsFloridadefense
Share of shots by zone
Florida St shoots
35.5
6.0
8.4
50.1
Florida allows
38.8
7.9
20.9
32.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.5%#109 | 50.6%#5 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 48.1%#20 | 34.8%#53 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.7%#241 | 34.9%#73 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.1%#226 | 32.1%#66 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersFlorida
+6.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#8 of 365
Off reb %
43.3%
#2
Def reb %
75.2%
#7
Turnover %
16.3%
#160
Forced TO %
15.3%
#269
FT rate
39.0%
#80
FT allowed
34.0%
#153
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+4.2
Defensive rebounding+1.9
Ball security+0.3
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn+1.0
Foul shots allowed+0.3
Florida St
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#89 of 365
Off reb %
30.8%
#170
Def reb %
65.9%
#319
Turnover %
15.2%
#83
Forced TO %
19.0%
#52
FT rate
34.7%
#191
FT allowed
32.7%
#122
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding−1.1
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Florida has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.7 (#8 of 365) to Florida St’s +2.2 (#89).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Florida2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Thomas Haugh | F | Sr | 6'9" | 34-34 | 33.3 | 17.1 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 53.3% | 32.6% | 5.2 | 77.4% | 26.9% | |
| 1 | Denzel Aberdeenat Kentucky | G | Sr | 6'5" | 36-35 | 30.6 | 13.5 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 51.6% | 36.3% | 4.8 | 79.8% | 25.1% | |
| 0 | Boogie Fland | G | Jr | 6'3" | 35-35 | 30.0 | 11.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 49.2% | 24.0% | 3.6 | 72.6% | 23.3% | |
| 21 | Alex Condon | F | Sr | 6'11" | 34-34 | 30.5 | 15.1 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 56.9% | 17.0% | 1.6 | 64.9% | 27.8% | |
| 9 | Rueben Chinyelu | C | Sr | 6'10" | 35-35 | 24.5 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 58.4% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 69.5% | 23.8% | |
| 7 | Urban Klavzar | G | Sr | 6'1" | 35-0 | 20.7 | 9.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 59.6% | 40.6% | 5.0 | 90.3% | 22.4% | |
| 20 | Isaiah Brown | G | Jr | 6'4" | 32-0 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 54.0% | 34.6% | 1.6 | 73.3% | 22.9% | |
| 11 | CJ Ingram | G | So | 6'6" | 20-0 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 57.1% | 50.0% | 0.8 | 50.0% | 23.7% | |
| 4 | Alex Lloyd | G | So | 6'3" | 17-0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 38.5% | 21.1% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 23.2% | |
| 8 | Alex Kovatchev | G | Sr | 6'5" | 15-0 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 33.3% | 22.2% | 0.6 | — | 14.5% | |
| 12 | Viktor Mikic | C | Jr | 6'11" | 15-0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 32.6% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 53.8% | 39.7% | |
| 3 | AJ Brown | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 25 | Arturas Butajevas | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 19 | Domen Petrovic | F | Jr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Jones Lay | C | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Denzel Aberdeen (from Kentucky)
Florida St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kam Taylorat UNC Asheville | G | Jr | 6'7" | 32-30 | 34.7 | 18.9 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 49.6% | 28.1% | 4.3 | 70.1% | 34.2% | |
| 2 | Anthony Robinson IIat Missouri | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-19 | 27.0 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 48.3% | 31.4% | 3.2 | 67.0% | 21.9% | |
| 22 | Sebastian Rancikat Colorado | F | Jr | 6'11" | 29-26 | 28.0 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 48.0% | 33.1% | 4.1 | 86.0% | 25.8% | |
| 31 | Cooper Schwiegerat Wake Forest | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-11 | 20.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 55.0% | 34.3% | 1.0 | 73.7% | 14.8% | |
| 19 | AJ Swinton | F | Jr | 6'6" | 26-1 | 15.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 53.6% | 32.8% | 2.2 | 56.5% | 16.6% | |
| 1 | Shon Abaevat Cincinnati | F | So | 6'8" | 24-12 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 41.9% | 25.7% | 4.2 | 64.9% | 30.6% | |
| 15 | Jalen Crawford | G | Jr | 6'0" | 6-0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.0 | — | 53.4% | |
| 7 | Jasen Lopez | G | So | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 00 | Amare Robinson | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Brandon Bass Jr. | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Collin Paul | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Elise Assui | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | JD Jones | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Marcis Ponder | C | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Martay Barnes | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Shon Abaev (from Cincinnati), Sebastian Rancik (from Colorado), Anthony Robinson II (from Missouri), Cooper Schwieger (from Wake Forest), Kam Taylor (from UNC Asheville)
Florida2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Thomas Haugh | F | Sr | 6'9" | 34-34 | 33.3 | 17.1 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 53.3% | 32.6% | 5.2 | 77.4% | 26.9% | |
| 1 | Denzel Aberdeenat Kentucky | G | Sr | 6'5" | 36-35 | 30.6 | 13.5 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 51.6% | 36.3% | 4.8 | 79.8% | 25.1% | |
| 0 | Boogie Fland | G | Jr | 6'3" | 35-35 | 30.0 | 11.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 49.2% | 24.0% | 3.6 | 72.6% | 23.3% | |
| 21 | Alex Condon | F | Sr | 6'11" | 34-34 | 30.5 | 15.1 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 56.9% | 17.0% | 1.6 | 64.9% | 27.8% | |
| 9 | Rueben Chinyelu | C | Sr | 6'10" | 35-35 | 24.5 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 58.4% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 69.5% | 23.8% | |
| 7 | Urban Klavzar | G | Sr | 6'1" | 35-0 | 20.7 | 9.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 59.6% | 40.6% | 5.0 | 90.3% | 22.4% | |
| 20 | Isaiah Brown | G | Jr | 6'4" | 32-0 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 54.0% | 34.6% | 1.6 | 73.3% | 22.9% | |
| 11 | CJ Ingram | G | So | 6'6" | 20-0 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 57.1% | 50.0% | 0.8 | 50.0% | 23.7% | |
| 4 | Alex Lloyd | G | So | 6'3" | 17-0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 38.5% | 21.1% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 23.2% | |
| 8 | Alex Kovatchev | G | Sr | 6'5" | 15-0 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 33.3% | 22.2% | 0.6 | — | 14.5% | |
| 12 | Viktor Mikic | C | Jr | 6'11" | 15-0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 32.6% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 53.8% | 39.7% | |
| 3 | AJ Brown | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 25 | Arturas Butajevas | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 19 | Domen Petrovic | F | Jr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Jones Lay | C | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Denzel Aberdeen (from Kentucky)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Florida
Against the spread
Season
19-16
Home
7-8
Road
9-1
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +2.8
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 10 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 7 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
14-20-1
Home
6-9
Road
3-7
Last 10
5-4-1
avg vs total +3.0
Over in 5 of 10 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 4 of 7 with a line of 10+, 1 push
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22 | #9Iowa | N | L 72–73 | −10.0 | L−11.0 | 145.0 | P145 | 117.8 | 119.4 | 61.1 |
| Mar 20 | #16Prairie View | N | W 114–55 | −35.0 | W+24.0 | 154.0 | O169 | 164.5 | 79.4 | 69.3 |
| Mar 14 | #22Vanderbilt | N | L 74–91 | −7.0 | L−24.0 | 160.0 | O165 | 115.8 | 142.4 | 63.9 |
| Mar 13 | Kentucky | N | W 71–63 | −10.0 | L−2.0 | 160.5 | U134 | 97.1 | 86.2 | 73.1 |
| Mar 7 | Kentucky | A | W 84–77 | −5.5 | W+1.5 | 162.0 | U161 | 117.3 | 107.6 | 71.6 |
| Mar 3 | Mississippi St | H | W 108–74 | −21.0 | W+13.0 | 160.5 | O182 | 143.9 | 98.6 | 75.1 |
| Feb 28 | #20Arkansas | H | W 111–77 | −10.5 | W+23.5 | 170.0 | O188 | 137.4 | 95.3 | 80.8 |
| Feb 25 | Texas | A | W 84–71 | −7.0 | W+6.0 | 158.5 | U155 | 130.1 | 110.0 | 64.5 |
| Feb 21 | Ole Miss | A | W 94–75 | −13.5 | W+5.5 | 150.5 | O169 | 122.2 | 97.5 | 76.9 |
| Feb 17 | South Carolina | H | W 76–62 | −23.0 | L−9.0 | 155.0 | U138 | 113.4 | 92.5 | 67.0 |
Florida St
Against the spread
Season
18-14-1
Home
9-7-1
Road
7-4
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +6.7
Covered 3 straightCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-16
Home
8-9
Road
5-6
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +1.0
Over 4 straightOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | #1Duke | N | L 79–80 | +17.0 | W+16.0 | 150.5 | O159 | 117.5 | 119.0 | 67.2 |
| Mar 11 | California | N | W 95–89 | −3.0 | W+3.0 | 155.0 | O184 | 136.3 | 127.7 | 69.7 |
| Mar 7 | SMU | H | W 91–78 | −1.0 | W+12.0 | 158.5 | O169 | 123.4 | 105.8 | 73.7 |
| Mar 4 | Pitt | A | W 75–74 | −1.5 | L−0.5 | 145.0 | O149 | 114.3 | 112.8 | 65.6 |
| Feb 28 | Georgia Tech | A | W 80–71 | −6.0 | W+3.0 | 159.5 | U151 | 123.7 | 109.8 | 64.7 |
| Feb 24 | Miami | H | L 73–83 | +2.0 | L−8.0 | 153.5 | O156 | 103.1 | 117.2 | 70.8 |
| Feb 21 | Clemson | A | W 70–65 | +8.5 | W+13.5 | 144.5 | U135 | 116.9 | 108.6 | 59.9 |
| Feb 17 | Boston College | H | W 80–72 | −12.0 | L−4.0 | 148.0 | O152 | 119.6 | 107.6 | 66.9 |
| Feb 14 | Virginia Tech | A | W 92–69 | +4.0 | W+27.0 | 156.5 | O161 | 142.4 | 106.8 | 64.6 |
| Feb 10 | #15Virginia | H | L 58–61 | +8.0 | W+5.0 | 154.0 | U119 | 85.1 | 89.5 | 68.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeFloridaFlorida St
Efficiency
119.2
113.0
97.9
106.4
70.2
70.5
—
—
Shooting
54.1%
52.3%
58.5%
55.1%
31.2%
33.1%
71.2%
71.3%
39.0%
34.7%
Ball control & glass
16.3%
15.2%
15.3%
19.0%
43.3%
30.8%
24.8%
34.1%
9.0%
9.4%
7.0%
12.8%
Style
37.0%
50.6%
50.2%
39.3%
18.2%
12.4%
55.0%
52.5%
27.5%
34.4%
Roster
3.71
3.28
6'6.5"
6'7.4"
78.8%
6.3%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputFlorida
Returning minutes: 78.8%Returning production: 79.0%
Lost
- Xaivian Lee 27.4 mpg, 11.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Micah Handlogten 14.4 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Olivier Rioux 0.5 mpg, 0.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cooper Josefsberg 0.1 mpg, 0.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Denzel Aberdeen from Kentucky · 30.6 mpg, 13.5 ppg last season
- Jones Lay no D1 minutes last season
- Arturas Butajevas no D1 minutes last season
- AJ Brown no D1 minutes last season
- Domen Petrovic no D1 minutes last season
Returns 79% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Florida St
Returning minutes: 6.3%Returning production: 4.9%
Lost
- Lajae Jones 29.5 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Robert McCray V 28.9 mpg, 16.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Chauncey Wiggins 27.1 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Martin Somerville 26.0 mpg, 8.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kobe MaGee 19.8 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Thomas Bassong 19.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
Added
- Kam Taylor from UNC Asheville · 34.7 mpg, 18.9 ppg last season
- Anthony Robinson II from Missouri · 27.0 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
- Sebastian Rancik from Colorado · 24.6 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
- Cooper Schwieger from Wake Forest · 19.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg last season
- Shon Abaev from Cincinnati · 11.6 mpg, 5.1 ppg last season
- Elise Assui no D1 minutes last season
Returns 6% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 11 | 2025-26 | Florida St 76 – 78 Florida |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.