CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDesert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ
Hofstra
Efficiency #69
2025-26: 24-11 · 15-6 conf
@
Arizona St
Efficiency #93
2025-26: 17-16 · 8-12 conf
Tue, Nov 10 · TBD
72.8
win 43%
Projected
74.9
win 57%
No line posted yet.
Model: ASU −2.1 · total 147.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Arizona St 69.5, Hofstra 66.5 → 67.8 possessions
−1.2
Arizona St offense vs Hofstra defense
−0.6
Hofstra offense vs Arizona St defense
+1.2
Projected total
147.7
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Arizona St offense vs Hofstra defense
−0.6
Hofstra offense vs Arizona St defense
−1.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Arizona St by 2.1
2.1
Hofstra side ◂▸ Arizona St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 147.6 against a projected 147.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Arizona St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Arizona St is the faster team (70.6, #71 of 365) and Hofstra the slower (65.4, #319). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.7
model
Projected team totals
72.8 / 74.9
Hofstra / Arizona St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.5#318
Hofstra
69.5#79
Arizona St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageArizona St
Where Arizona St struggles: shooting
Arizona St shoots an effective 51.1% (#190); Hofstra allows 46.3% (#14). Expect about 48.6%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.8 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageHofstra
Where Hofstra scores: the offensive glass
Hofstra rebounds 34.7% of its own misses (#54); Arizona St lets opponents grab 34.9% of their own misses (#337). Expect about 35.6%, 5.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseArizona St
Arizona St's shot-blocking
Arizona St ranks #30 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.2% of Hofstra's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Arizona St averages 70.6 possessions per 40, Hofstra 65.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Hofstra) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Hofstra at about 42.7% of its shots from three, Arizona St about 39.6%.
Hofstra has the ball
OffenseArizona St allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #178
52.4% #235
+0.9 pt/100
16.1% #149
18.5% #77
-0.9 pt/100
34.7% #54
34.9% #337
+3.2 pt/100
31.6% #264
34.3% #160
-0.3 pt/100
75.8% #56
—
+0.3 pt/100
Hofstra net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.2 pts/100
Arizona St has the ball
OffenseHofstra allowsvs D1 avg
51.1% #190
46.3% #14
-3.8 pt/100
17.1% #213
14.9% #292
+1.2 pt/100
29.8% #206
31.0% #201
-0.1 pt/100
39.5% #66
35.1% #182
+0.3 pt/100
75.3% #73
—
+0.3 pt/100
Arizona St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.1 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersHofstraoffense vsArizona Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Hofstra shoots
31.3
6.5
19.6
42.6
Arizona St allows
37.3
7.7
15.6
39.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.2%#267 | 59.3%#204 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 39.5%#186 | 43.1%#253 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.9%#226 | 39.2%#209 | 38.0% |
| Three | 37.1%#25 | 35.0%#249 | 33.7% |
Arizona Stoffense vsHofstradefense
Share of shots by zone
Arizona St shoots
35.6
7.8
18.0
38.6
Hofstra allows
33.3
5.8
20.4
40.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.9%#119 | 51.9%#15 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.0%#122 | 22.3%#1 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.4%#177 | 39.7%#229 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.4%#202 | 32.3%#78 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersHofstra
−0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#191 of 365
Off reb %
34.7%
#54
Def reb %
69.0%
#201
Turnover %
16.1%
#149
Forced TO %
14.9%
#292
FT rate
31.6%
#264
FT allowed
35.1%
#182
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.4
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed0.0
Arizona St
+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#149 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#206
Def reb %
65.1%
#337
Turnover %
17.1%
#213
Forced TO %
18.5%
#77
FT rate
39.5%
#66
FT allowed
34.3%
#160
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Arizona St has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.8 (#149 of 365) to Hofstra’s −0.3 (#191).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Hofstra2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Hofstra's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cruz Davis | G | Jr | 6'3" | 35-35 | 37.9 | 20.1 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 51.6% | 40.0% | 5.9 | 83.0% | 32.7% | |
| 1 | Preston Edmead | G | Fr | 6'1" | 35-35 | 33.9 | 16.1 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 51.7% | 38.7% | 7.1 | 83.3% | 29.2% | |
| 25 | German Plotnikov | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 32.3 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 54.9% | 38.1% | 4.7 | 85.1% | 16.7% | |
| 4 | Joshua DeCady | F | So | 6'8" | 33-23 | 24.1 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 46.2% | 28.1% | 1.7 | 57.7% | 18.2% | |
| 33 | Silas Sunday | F | Sr | 7'0" | 35-18 | 19.7 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 65.3% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 64.9% | 15.8% | |
| 0 | Biggie Patterson | G | Sr | 6'7" | 31-14 | 20.9 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 47.6% | 31.5% | 3.6 | 74.6% | 29.4% | |
| 6 | Victory Onuetu | F | Jr | 6'10" | 35-17 | 17.9 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 56.6% | — | 0.0 | 49.0% | 17.6% | |
| 15 | Joshua Aaron Reaves | G | Sr | 6'3" | 23-0 | 10.8 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 50.0% | 34.9% | 1.9 | 83.3% | 14.2% | |
| 7 | Jaeden Roberts | G | Fr | 6'3" | 23-0 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 56.3% | 41.2% | 2.2 | 50.0% | 28.5% | |
| 2 | A.J. Wills | G | Jr | 6'0" | 17-0 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 45.7% | 33.3% | 1.6 | 80.0% | 22.0% | |
| 17 | Alex Tsynkevich | C | Sr | 6'10" | 16-0 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 13.1% | |
| 11 | Amir Williams | G | So | 6'4" | 3-0 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 17.4% | |
| 55 | Brandon Morgan | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Carlos Lopez | G | Jr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Trey Boyd III | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Arizona St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Arizona St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Maurice Odum | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-33 | 33.8 | 16.4 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 51.3% | 37.7% | 7.2 | 82.9% | 29.7% | |
| 35 | Massamba Diop | C | Fr | 7'1" | 33-33 | 29.7 | 13.6 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 58.2% | 30.8% | 0.8 | 71.5% | 24.8% | |
| 2 | Anthony Johnson | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-5 | 24.8 | 13.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 49.7% | 32.9% | 2.4 | 76.1% | 31.7% | |
| 15 | Noah Meeusen | G | So | 6'5" | 30-11 | 27.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 49.0% | 31.0% | 3.3 | 82.9% | 14.2% | |
| 1 | Santiago Trouet | F | So | 6'11" | 31-30 | 25.7 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 46.1% | 20.8% | 0.8 | 78.3% | 19.5% | |
| 14 | Andrija Grbovic | F | Jr | 6'11" | 33-27 | 19.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 51.9% | 35.0% | 3.7 | 78.9% | 19.4% | |
| 4 | Bryce Ford | G | Jr | 6'4" | 27-20 | 22.4 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 47.3% | 31.4% | 3.8 | 82.9% | 18.6% | |
| 23 | Allen Mukeba | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-6 | 16.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 56.1% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 53.2% | 19.9% | |
| 8 | Marcus Adams Jr. | F | Jr | 6'8" | 14-0 | 11.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 43.9% | 29.6% | 1.9 | 70.0% | 19.7% | |
| 12 | Trevor Best | G | So | 6'3" | 17-0 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 36.4% | 16.7% | 0.7 | 63.6% | 18.1% | |
| 11 | Kash Polk | F | Fr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 3 | Adante' Holiman | G | Sr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Dame Salane | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 70 | Jovan Icitovic | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Quentin McCoy | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Vijay Wallace | G | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Hofstra2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Hofstra's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cruz Davis | G | Jr | 6'3" | 35-35 | 37.9 | 20.1 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 51.6% | 40.0% | 5.9 | 83.0% | 32.7% | |
| 1 | Preston Edmead | G | Fr | 6'1" | 35-35 | 33.9 | 16.1 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 51.7% | 38.7% | 7.1 | 83.3% | 29.2% | |
| 25 | German Plotnikov | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 32.3 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 54.9% | 38.1% | 4.7 | 85.1% | 16.7% | |
| 4 | Joshua DeCady | F | So | 6'8" | 33-23 | 24.1 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 46.2% | 28.1% | 1.7 | 57.7% | 18.2% | |
| 33 | Silas Sunday | F | Sr | 7'0" | 35-18 | 19.7 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 65.3% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 64.9% | 15.8% | |
| 0 | Biggie Patterson | G | Sr | 6'7" | 31-14 | 20.9 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 47.6% | 31.5% | 3.6 | 74.6% | 29.4% | |
| 6 | Victory Onuetu | F | Jr | 6'10" | 35-17 | 17.9 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 56.6% | — | 0.0 | 49.0% | 17.6% | |
| 15 | Joshua Aaron Reaves | G | Sr | 6'3" | 23-0 | 10.8 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 50.0% | 34.9% | 1.9 | 83.3% | 14.2% | |
| 7 | Jaeden Roberts | G | Fr | 6'3" | 23-0 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 56.3% | 41.2% | 2.2 | 50.0% | 28.5% | |
| 2 | A.J. Wills | G | Jr | 6'0" | 17-0 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 45.7% | 33.3% | 1.6 | 80.0% | 22.0% | |
| 17 | Alex Tsynkevich | C | Sr | 6'10" | 16-0 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 13.1% | |
| 11 | Amir Williams | G | So | 6'4" | 3-0 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 17.4% | |
| 55 | Brandon Morgan | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Carlos Lopez | G | Jr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Trey Boyd III | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Hofstra
Against the spread
Season
21-12
Home
6-4
Road
11-6
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +5.6
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
16-15-2
Home
2-8
Road
11-6
Last 10
4-5-1
avg vs total −4.9
Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite, 1 push
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 | #4Alabama | N | L 70–90 | +11.5 | L−8.5 | 159.0 | O160 | 100.4 | 129.1 | 69.7 |
| Mar 10 | Monmouth | N | W 75–69 | −4.0 | W+2.0 | 135.0 | O144 | 113.0 | 103.9 | 66.4 |
| Mar 9 | Towson | N | W 68–65 OT | −4.0 | L−1.0 | 131.5 | O133 | 111.7 | 106.8 | 60.9 |
| Mar 8 | William & Mary | N | W 92–61 | −2.5 | W+28.5 | 153.0 | P153 | 140.0 | 92.8 | 65.7 |
| Mar 3 | Drexel | H | W 62–51 | −8.5 | W+2.5 | 133.0 | U113 | 109.3 | 89.9 | 56.7 |
| Feb 28 | Stony Brook | H | W 67–58 | −11.5 | L−2.5 | 139.5 | U125 | 96.8 | 83.8 | 69.2 |
| Feb 21 | Northeastern | A | W 82–68 | −7.5 | W+6.5 | 145.0 | O150 | 128.0 | 106.1 | 64.1 |
| Feb 19 | Hampton | H | W 79–43 | −11.0 | W+25.0 | 133.5 | U122 | 129.5 | 70.5 | 61.0 |
| Feb 14 | UNC Wilmington | A | L 66–70 | +2.5 | L−1.5 | 137.5 | U136 | 108.2 | 114.7 | 61.0 |
| Feb 12 | Charleston | A | W 66–62 | +1.0 | W+5.0 | 146.0 | U128 | 94.0 | 88.3 | 70.2 |
Arizona St
Against the spread
Season
20-12-1
Home
10-4-1
Road
5-6
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +0.2
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-17-1
Home
4-11
Road
7-4
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −6.8
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | #7Iowa State | N | L 42–91 | +12.5 | L−36.5 | 149.5 | U133 | 61.1 | 132.3 | 68.8 |
| Mar 10 | Baylor | N | W 83–79 | +5.0 | W+9.0 | 152.5 | O162 | 117.3 | 111.6 | 70.8 |
| Mar 7 | #6Iowa State | A | L 65–86 | +16.5 | L−4.5 | 148.0 | O151 | 89.1 | 117.9 | 73.0 |
| Mar 3 | #14Kansas | H | W 70–60 | +6.0 | W+16.0 | 150.0 | U130 | 96.7 | 82.8 | 72.4 |
| Feb 28 | Utah | H | W 73–60 | −7.0 | W+6.0 | 150.5 | U133 | 124.8 | 102.6 | 58.5 |
| Feb 24 | TCU | A | L 78–90 | +6.5 | L−5.5 | 149.0 | O168 | 104.1 | 120.1 | 75.0 |
| Feb 21 | Baylor | A | L 68–73 | +8.5 | W+3.5 | 158.0 | U141 | 104.0 | 111.6 | 65.4 |
| Feb 17 | #13Texas Tech | H | W 72–67 | +7.5 | W+12.5 | 155.5 | U139 | 108.9 | 101.3 | 66.1 |
| Feb 10 | Oklahoma St | H | W 85–76 | −2.5 | W+6.5 | 163.0 | U161 | 113.8 | 101.7 | 74.7 |
| Feb 7 | Colorado | A | L 70–78 | +3.5 | L−4.5 | 158.0 | U148 | 106.7 | 118.9 | 65.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeHofstraArizona St
Efficiency
112.4
110.9
105.3
106.4
66.5
69.5
—
—
Shooting
51.4%
51.1%
48.1%
51.7%
37.1%
33.4%
75.8%
75.3%
31.6%
39.5%
Ball control & glass
16.1%
17.1%
14.9%
18.5%
34.7%
29.8%
31.0%
34.9%
7.7%
10.5%
10.7%
9.6%
Style
42.8%
38.4%
35.9%
41.8%
9.0%
16.3%
48.3%
53.0%
25.2%
32.3%
Roster
2.88
2.82
6'5.4"
6'7"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputHofstra
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Hofstra's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Arizona St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Arizona St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.