CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMoody Coliseum (Dallas), Dallas, TX

Prairie View

Efficiency #303

2025-26: 19-18 · 13-9 conf

SMU

Efficiency #44

2025-26: 20-14 · 9-11 conf

Tue, Nov 10 · TBD

70.3

win 7%

Projected

87.1

win 93%

No line posted yet.

Model: SMU −16.8 · total 157.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: SMU 69.1, Prairie View 70.5 → 71.3 possessions

+6.4

SMU offense vs Prairie View defense

+7.7

Prairie View offense vs SMU defense

−5.0

Projected total

157.3

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

SMU offense vs Prairie View defense

+7.7

Prairie View offense vs SMU defense

+5.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

SMU by 16.8

16.8

Prairie View side ◂▸ SMU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help SMU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Prairie View is the faster team (72.4, #16 of 365) and SMU the slower (70.6, #73). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

157.3

model

Projected team totals

70.3 / 87.1

Prairie View / SMU

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.5#28

Prairie View

69.1#108

SMU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

SMU averages 70.6 possessions per 40, Prairie View 72.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageSMU

Where SMU scores: the offensive glass

SMU rebounds 35.4% of its own misses (#37); Prairie View lets opponents grab 35.4% of their own misses (#344). Expect about 36.3%, 5.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantagePrairie View

Where Prairie View struggles: shooting

Prairie View shoots an effective 47.4% (#330); SMU allows 51.6% (#189). Expect about 49.2%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.

ClashSMU

Style match: 3-point volume

SMU rarely shoots threes (35.9% of its shots); Prairie View runs teams off the line (32.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.4% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (SMU) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Prairie View at about 37.6% of its shots from three, SMU about 32.4%.

ClashSMU

Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure

SMU (#31 in shot-blocking exposure) against Prairie View (#44 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.6%. Historically Prairie View's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).

Prairie View has the ball

OffenseSMU allowsvs D1 avg

47.4% #330

51.6% #189

-2.9 pt/100

15.8% #124

16.8% #164

+0.6 pt/100

26.7% #305

31.6% #237

-1.2 pt/100

41.6% #35

32.1% #107

+0.2 pt/100

75.6% #63

—

+0.3 pt/100

Prairie View net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.1 pts/100

SMU has the ball

OffensePrairie View allowsvs D1 avg

55.6% #26

50.9% #149

+3.3 pt/100

15.7% #116

19.0% #50

-1.0 pt/100

35.4% #37

35.4% #344

+3.6 pt/100

30.4% #301

42.6% #333

+0.3 pt/100

74.3% #117

—

+0.2 pt/100

SMU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Prairie Viewoffense vsSMUdefense

Share of shots by zone

Prairie View shoots

37.2

6.7

24.9

31.2

SMU allows

31.4

4.3

16.6

47.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.1%#296	60.8%#263	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.6%#231	37.0%#111	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.8%#230	38.3%#169	38.0%
Three	32.9%#237	34.1%#188	33.7%

SMUoffense vsPrairie Viewdefense

Share of shots by zone

SMU shoots

34.6

6.9

23.0

35.4

Prairie View allows

44.4

8.5

14.8

32.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.0%#38	58.2%#150	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	48.5%#17	34.9%#56	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.1%#25	35.3%#83	38.0%
Three	37.1%#27	35.0%#247	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Prairie View

−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#211 of 365

Off reb %

26.7%

#305

Def reb %

64.6%

#344

Turnover %

15.8%

#124

Forced TO %

19.0%

#50

FT rate

41.6%

#35

FT allowed

42.6%

#333

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding−1.5

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers+1.6

Foul shots drawn+1.7

Foul shots allowed−1.9

SMU

+1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#112 of 365

Off reb %

35.4%

#37

Def reb %

68.4%

#237

Turnover %

15.7%

#116

Forced TO %

16.8%

#164

FT rate

30.4%

#301

FT allowed

32.1%

#107

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn−1.2

Foul shots allowed+0.8

SMU has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.7 (#112 of 365) to Prairie View’s −0.7 (#211).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Prairie View2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Prairie View's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Lance Williams	G	Sr	6'1"	37-37	35.6	10.1	3.2	3.2	1.5	50.4%	41.8%	1.8	80.1%	15.8%
13	Cory Wells	F	Sr	6'7"	37-37	33.2	13.2	7.1	2.1	2.2	44.0%	35.5%	3.3	74.2%	25.8%
2	Dontae Horne	G	Sr	6'4"	37-34	32.3	20.1	4.5	2.9	2.6	48.6%	32.0%	4.1	80.2%	35.7%
3	Tai'Reon Joseph	G	Sr	6'3"	29-23	29.9	17.7	2.3	0.9	1.7	49.0%	31.2%	7.1	76.5%	32.7%
4	Corey Dunning	F	Sr	6'9"	34-18	17.9	1.2	3.2	0.6	0.4	54.1%	0.0%	0.1	25.0%	4.9%
0	Joey Madimba	G	Sr	6'5"	27-7	17.1	8.1	3.3	0.5	0.8	50.6%	24.5%	2.0	72.1%	26.0%
25	Keeshawn Mason	F	Sr	6'8"	29-19	15.2	4.6	2.8	0.3	0.4	49.5%	33.3%	0.8	65.9%	16.8%
23	Elijah Mitchell	G	So	6'5"	28-4	12.1	2.4	1.4	0.6	0.1	45.7%	42.1%	0.7	86.7%	10.6%
10	Jannoy Thomas	G	Jr	5'11"	28-0	10.9	2.4	1.4	0.7	0.5	59.5%	0.0%	0.1	68.0%	11.6%
11	Hassane Diallo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-3	10.7	3.1	3.0	0.3	0.7	50.9%	—	0.0	60.9%	18.3%
24	Marcel Bryant	F	Jr	6'7"	13-0	12.8	6.5	2.8	0.3	1.4	57.4%	40.0%	1.2	76.7%	26.8%
5	Doug Young	G	Sr	6'0"	3-3	26.3	9.3	2.3	1.7	2.7	51.9%	36.4%	3.7	—	22.2%
34	Ryan Bolton Jr.	C	So	6'10"	13-0	5.8	1.7	2.1	0.2	0.6	83.3%	—	0.0	66.7%	14.0%
15	Seryee Lewis	F	Sr	6'9"	4-0	6.5	2.0	1.3	0.0	1.3	42.9%	—	0.0	50.0%	27.1%
1	Isaiah Foster	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	4.4	2.0	1.0	0.4	0.2	80.0%	66.7%	0.6	100.0%	15.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

SMU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Samet Yigitoglu	C	So	7'2"	34-34	28.9	10.7	7.9	1.6	1.7	62.8%	0.0%	0.0	49.5%	20.7%
3	Corey Washington	F	Sr	6'6"	34-34	27.8	11.4	4.9	0.9	1.0	56.8%	38.8%	3.4	76.9%	21.1%
10	Jaden Toombs	C	Fr	6'10"	27-5	20.0	8.3	4.6	1.1	0.8	58.6%	23.1%	1.0	65.8%	22.8%
7	Jermaine O'Neal Jr.	F	Fr	6'5"	34-2	15.0	4.5	2.0	0.4	0.5	51.1%	37.1%	1.8	91.7%	17.8%
9	B.J. Davis-Ray	G	Fr	6'6"	32-0	7.1	1.3	0.7	0.4	0.3	41.1%	21.7%	0.7	75.0%	13.9%
4	Sam Walters	F	Jr	6'9"	24-2	9.3	2.6	1.0	0.4	0.4	52.5%	34.9%	1.8	0.0%	17.9%
13	Mitchell Holmes	F	Fr	6'10"	25-0	5.5	1.7	0.9	0.2	0.2	70.4%	—	0.0	100.0%	13.1%
1	Chance Puryear	F	Fr	6'7"	11-0	3.2	0.4	0.5	0.0	0.4	30.0%	33.3%	0.3	33.3%	16.3%
22	Nigel Walls	F	Fr	6'10"	9-0	3.3	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	6.9%
31	Trey Utter	G	Sr	6'0"	2-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
33	Niccolo Kalischer-Stork	G	Fr	6'2"	2-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	—	—	0.0	0.0%	49.3%
8	Billy White III	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Prairie View2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Prairie View's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Lance Williams	G	Sr	6'1"	37-37	35.6	10.1	3.2	3.2	1.5	50.4%	41.8%	1.8	80.1%	15.8%
13	Cory Wells	F	Sr	6'7"	37-37	33.2	13.2	7.1	2.1	2.2	44.0%	35.5%	3.3	74.2%	25.8%
2	Dontae Horne	G	Sr	6'4"	37-34	32.3	20.1	4.5	2.9	2.6	48.6%	32.0%	4.1	80.2%	35.7%
3	Tai'Reon Joseph	G	Sr	6'3"	29-23	29.9	17.7	2.3	0.9	1.7	49.0%	31.2%	7.1	76.5%	32.7%
4	Corey Dunning	F	Sr	6'9"	34-18	17.9	1.2	3.2	0.6	0.4	54.1%	0.0%	0.1	25.0%	4.9%
0	Joey Madimba	G	Sr	6'5"	27-7	17.1	8.1	3.3	0.5	0.8	50.6%	24.5%	2.0	72.1%	26.0%
25	Keeshawn Mason	F	Sr	6'8"	29-19	15.2	4.6	2.8	0.3	0.4	49.5%	33.3%	0.8	65.9%	16.8%
23	Elijah Mitchell	G	So	6'5"	28-4	12.1	2.4	1.4	0.6	0.1	45.7%	42.1%	0.7	86.7%	10.6%
10	Jannoy Thomas	G	Jr	5'11"	28-0	10.9	2.4	1.4	0.7	0.5	59.5%	0.0%	0.1	68.0%	11.6%
11	Hassane Diallo	F	Jr	6'8"	27-3	10.7	3.1	3.0	0.3	0.7	50.9%	—	0.0	60.9%	18.3%
24	Marcel Bryant	F	Jr	6'7"	13-0	12.8	6.5	2.8	0.3	1.4	57.4%	40.0%	1.2	76.7%	26.8%
5	Doug Young	G	Sr	6'0"	3-3	26.3	9.3	2.3	1.7	2.7	51.9%	36.4%	3.7	—	22.2%
34	Ryan Bolton Jr.	C	So	6'10"	13-0	5.8	1.7	2.1	0.2	0.6	83.3%	—	0.0	66.7%	14.0%
15	Seryee Lewis	F	Sr	6'9"	4-0	6.5	2.0	1.3	0.0	1.3	42.9%	—	0.0	50.0%	27.1%
1	Isaiah Foster	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	4.4	2.0	1.0	0.4	0.2	80.0%	66.7%	0.6	100.0%	15.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Prairie View

Against the spread

Season

22-11

Home

5-4

Road

11-5

Last 10

9-1

avg cover +6.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-18-1

Home

3-6

Road

9-6-1

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −9.9

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#1FloridaAdjEM #5	N	L 55–114	+35.0	L−24.0	154.0	O169	79.4	164.5	69.3
Mar 18	#16LehighAdjEM #273	N	W 67–55	+3.0	W+15.0	142.5	U122	102.8	84.4	65.2
Mar 14	SouthernAdjEM #286	N	W 72–66	+3.5	W+9.5	145.0	U138	109.3	100.2	65.9
Mar 13	Alabama A&MAdjEM #312	N	W 74–55	+2.0	W+21.0	140.5	U129	117.2	87.1	63.1
Mar 11	BethuneAdjEM #260	N	W 71–67	+5.5	W+9.5	148.0	U138	108.0	101.9	65.8
Mar 10	Alcorn StAdjEM #355	N	W 65–56	−6.0	W+3.0	142.5	U121	97.7	84.2	66.5
Mar 5	Texas SouthernAdjEM #321	A	W 70–59	+1.5	W+12.5	153.0	U129	104.4	88.0	67.0
Feb 28	Alcorn StAdjEM #355	H	W 72–51	−4.5	W+16.5	150.0	U123	102.3	72.5	70.4
Feb 26	Jackson StAdjEM #353	H	W 85–76 OT	−4.5	W+4.5	161.5	U161	114.2	102.1	74.4
Feb 21	AR-Pine BluffAdjEM #323	A	L 82–84	+3.5	W+1.5	158.0	O166	120.8	123.7	67.9

SMU

Against the spread

Season

14-18-2

Home

7-10-1

Road

4-6-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-13-2

Home

10-8

Road

6-4-1

Last 10

5-4-1

avg vs total −1.6

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 18	#11Miami OHAdjEM #66	N	L 79–89	−7.0	L−17.0	160.5	O168	119.2	134.3	66.3
Mar 11	#24LouisvilleAdjEM #14	N	L 58–62	+6.5	W+2.5	163.5	U120	94.4	100.9	61.5
Mar 10	SyracuseAdjEM #85	N	W 86–69	−4.0	W+13.0	155.0	P155	130.2	104.4	66.1
Mar 7	Florida StAdjEM #74	A	L 78–91	+1.0	L−12.0	158.5	O169	105.8	123.4	73.7
Mar 4	#22MiamiAdjEM #30	H	L 69–77	−1.5	L−9.5	156.5	U146	99.4	111.0	69.4
Feb 28	StanfordAdjEM #77	A	L 75–95	+1.0	L−19.0	154.5	O170	116.6	147.6	64.3
Feb 25	CaliforniaAdjEM #79	A	L 69–73	−4.0	L−8.0	163.0	U142	98.9	104.7	69.7
Feb 21	Boston CollegeAdjEM #187	H	W 94–70	−15.5	W+8.5	150.0	O164	143.1	106.6	65.7
Feb 17	#21LouisvilleAdjEM #14	H	W 95–85	+4.0	W+14.0	168.0	O180	124.3	111.2	76.4
Feb 14	SyracuseAdjEM #85	A	L 78–79	−2.0	L−3.0	158.0	U157	119.4	121.0	65.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Prairie ViewSMU

Efficiency

103.2

117.0

110.8

106.7

70.5

69.1

—

Shooting

47.4%

55.6%

46.5%

55.6%

32.9%

37.1%

75.6%

74.3%

41.6%

30.4%

Ball control & glass

15.8%

15.7%

19.0%

16.8%

26.7%

35.4%

31.6%

8.8%

9.3%

8.2%

7.5%

Style

30.6%

35.9%

41.8%

43.7%

17.7%

13.4%

43.2%

54.9%

24.1%

22.4%

Roster

3.78

2.18

6'4.6"

6'9"

—

53.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Prairie View

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Prairie View's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

SMU

Returning minutes: 53.0%Returning production: 45.5%

Lost

Boopie Miller 34.1 mpg, 18.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jaron Pierre Jr. 33.2 mpg, 17.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
B.J. Edwards 27.4 mpg, 10.5 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma

Added

Billy White III no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 53% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.