Evansville Purple Aces vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders basketball prediction & odds
Tue, Nov 10 · 7:30 PM ET · Murphy Center, Murfreesboro, TN
Non-conferenceESPN+Murphy Center, Murfreesboro, TN
Evansville
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #306
@
MTSU
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #241
Live
68.376.2
Projected score
EVAN win 25%MTSU win 75%
MarketClose
Spread
MTSU −9.5
open MTSU −8.0
Total
143.0
open 144.5
Our line
MTSU −7.8
as of Tue, Nov 10 · 7:21 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
from the market's opening number| Line | Market open | Our adjustment | Our line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MTSU −8.0 | 0.2 toward Evansville | MTSU −7.8 |
Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, MTSU is the faster team (69.9, #209 of 365) and Evansville the slower (65.9, #315). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.4
per team, 40 min
Market total
143.0
Market close · open 144.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.0#286
Evansville
69.0#285
MTSU
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
MTSU −7.8
Four factors −23.1 · not in these stats +30.9
From the four factors
MTSU has the ball−12.8
Evansville has the ball+10.3
MTSU has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 30.1% #357 · EVAN allows 47.0% #110−12.8
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 13.2% #357 · EVAN allows 45.5% #269 · FT 44.4% #356−2.1
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 22.9% #311 · EVAN forces 10.8% #342 · ~11 turnovers+1.7
✓Wins second chancesOR% 36.0% #96 · EVAN allows 27.1% #107+0.4
Evansville has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 50.8% #172 · MTSU allows 68.8% #355+9.3
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 12.1% #27 · MTSU forces 17.2% #205 · ~10 turnovers+3.4
✗Few second chancesOR% 22.7% #313 · MTSU allows 34.6% #244−1.9
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 32.8% #224 · MTSU allows 39.3% #206 · FT 61.9% #290−0.6
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootEvansvilleoffense vsMTSUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Evansville shoots
29.7
1.6
7.8
60.9
MTSU allows
48.6
8.1
10.8
32.4
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 47.4%#295 | 72.2%#325 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 100.0%#1 | 66.7%#322 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 0.0%#327 | 50.0%#285 | 34.7% |
| Three | 38.5%#77 | 36.8%#279 | 32.5% |
MTSUoffense vsEvansvilledefense
Share of shots by zone
MTSU shoots
10.3
25.6
28.2
35.9
Evansville allows
30.3
7.6
9.1
53.0
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 50.0%#261 | 50.0%#75 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.0%#228 | 40.0%#193 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 18.2%#293 | 16.7%#48 | 34.7% |
| Three | 25.9%#287 | 34.3%#212 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineEvansville
−5.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#254 of 365
Off reb %
22.7%
#313
Def reb %
72.9%
#107
Turnover %
12.1%
#27
Forced TO %
10.8%
#342
FT rate
32.8%
#224
FT allowed
45.5%
#269
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.9
Defensive rebounding+1.5
Ball security+4.3
Forcing turnovers−5.2
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed−2.0
MTSU
−10.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#314 of 365
Off reb %
36.0%
#96
Def reb %
65.4%
#244
Turnover %
22.9%
#311
Forced TO %
17.2%
#205
FT rate
13.2%
#357
FT allowed
39.3%
#206
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.5
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security−3.3
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−6.3
Foul shots allowed−0.3
Evansville has more extra scoring chances per game: −5.4 (#254 of 365) to MTSU’s −10.1 (#314).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Evansville2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 2-2 | 36.5 | 19.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 57.4% | 45.5% | 5.5 | 70.0% | 27.8% | Active | |
| 0 | G | So | 6'3" | 2-2 | 36.0 | 16.5 | 2.5 | 9.0 | 0.5 | 37.1% | 21.4% | 7.0 | 90.9% | 31.0% | Active | |
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 2-2 | 30.0 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 36.8% | 33.3% | 6.0 | 100.0% | 24.0% | Active | |
| 9 | G | So | 6'6" | 2-2 | 28.5 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 58.8% | 42.9% | 7.0 | — | 17.9% | Active | |
| 24 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 26.5 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 61.5% | 44.4% | 4.5 | 33.3% | 17.5% | Active | |
| 33 | G | Fr | 6'7" | 2-0 | 19.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 1.5 | 33.3% | 15.3% | Active | |
| 13 | F | So | 6'11" | 2-2 | 16.5 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 75.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 22.4% | Active | |
| 5 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 62.5% | 50.0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 20.8% | Active | |
| 96 | F | So | 6'10" | 2-0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 83.3% | 17.6% | Active | |
| 4 | G | So | 6'0" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 14.5% | Missed last | |
| 32 | F | Fr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 87.2% | Missed last | |
| 8 | F | Fr | 6'6" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | Missed last | |
| 7 | F | Fr | 7'0" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | Missed last |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesEvansville
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −5.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +10.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | S Indiana | H | W 78–76 OT | −7.5 | L−5.5 | 143.5 | O154 | 105.2 | 102.5 | 74.1 |
| Nov 2 | IU Kokomo Cougars | H | W 80–70 | — | — | — | — | 115.1 | 100.7 | 69.5 |
| Mar 5 | Northern Iowa | N | L 59–68 | +15.0 | W+6.0 | 128.5 | U127 | 94.0 | 108.3 | 62.8 |
| Mar 1 | S Illinois | H | L 67–81 | +9.0 | L−5.0 | 139.5 | O148 | 104.9 | 126.8 | 63.9 |
| Feb 28 | Valparaiso | H | W 80–79 | +5.0 | W+6.0 | 138.0 | O159 | 117.9 | 116.4 | 67.9 |
| Feb 25 | Belmont | A | L 64–98 | +18.5 | L−15.5 | 152.0 | O162 | 94.8 | 145.2 | 67.5 |
| Feb 21 | Murray St | A | L 75–88 | +14.0 | W+1.0 | 153.0 | O163 | 104.0 | 122.1 | 72.1 |
| Feb 18 | UIC | H | L 46–84 | +8.0 | L−30.0 | 140.0 | U130 | 71.2 | 130.1 | 64.6 |
| Feb 12 | S Illinois | A | L 60–86 | +12.0 | L−14.0 | 142.5 | O146 | 88.2 | 126.4 | 68.1 |
| Feb 9 | Illinois St | H | W 88–80 | +10.5 | W+18.5 | 138.0 | O168 | 132.7 | 120.6 | 66.3 |
MTSU
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −15.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −23.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | #17Kansas | A | L 45–89 | +28.5 | L−15.5 | 157.0 | U134 | 64.4 | 127.4 | 69.9 |
| Nov 2 | Fisk Bulldogs | H | W 117–73 | — | — | — | — | 150.5 | 93.9 | 77.8 |
| Mar 12 | Louisiana Tech | N | L 69–80 | −2.0 | L−13.0 | 133.5 | O149 | 104.0 | 120.6 | 66.3 |
| Mar 7 | Missouri St | A | W 75–63 | +2.5 | W+14.5 | 146.5 | U138 | 113.1 | 95.0 | 66.3 |
| Mar 5 | FIU | A | W 73–67 | −1.0 | W+5.0 | 153.5 | U140 | 106.1 | 97.4 | 68.8 |
| Feb 28 | New Mexico St | H | W 86–85 OT | −5.5 | L−4.5 | 148.0 | O171 | 114.3 | 113.0 | 75.2 |
| Feb 26 | UTEP | H | W 77–67 | −8.5 | W+1.5 | 139.5 | O144 | 112.8 | 98.2 | 68.3 |
| Feb 21 | Delaware | H | W 78–66 | −10.0 | W+2.0 | 137.5 | O144 | 125.8 | 106.5 | 62.0 |
| Feb 18 | Sam Houston | A | L 70–78 | +4.0 | L−4.0 | 151.5 | U148 | 100.5 | 112.0 | 69.6 |
| Feb 14 | Western KY | A | L 80–82 | +3.0 | W+1.0 | 144.5 | O162 | 113.2 | 116.0 | 70.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeEvansvilleMTSU
Efficiency
100.3
102.7
110.5
107.4
69.0
69.0
-10.0
21.2
Shooting
50.8%
30.1%
40.0%
24.4%
38.5%
25.9%
61.9%
44.4%
32.8%
13.2%
Ball control & glass
12.1%
22.9%
10.8%
17.2%
22.7%
36.0%
27.1%
34.6%
8.1%
10.0%
8.0%
17.1%
Style
60.9%
39.7%
25.6%
35.6%
16.7%
6.7%
72.0%
58.8%
30.9%
41.3%
Roster
2.21
3.05
6'6.3"
6'5.4"
32.4%
24.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputEvansville
Returning minutes: 32.4%Returning production: 37.9%
Lost
- Leif Moeller 32.5 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to UTEP
- Joshua Hughes 27.6 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to USC
- Alex Hemenway 25.9 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Trent Hundley 17.6 mpg, 5.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Keishon Porter 11.0 mpg, 3.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kaia Berridge 10.5 mpg, 1.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Gustav Winther from N Illinois · 21.2 mpg, 8.1 ppg last season
- Max Langenfeld from FAU · 4.0 mpg, 1.7 ppg last season
- Yannick Pinas no D1 minutes last season
- Bryce Renn no D1 minutes last season
- Jake Genschaw no D1 minutes last season
- Rafayel Masumyan no D1 minutes last season
Returns 32% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
MTSU
Returning minutes: 24.7%Returning production: 23.7%
Lost
- Torey Alston 29.3 mpg, 13.1 ppg · transferred to VCU
- Kamari Lands 29.2 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Chris Loofe 24.9 mpg, 7.3 ppg · transferred to Tulsa
- Sean Smith 23.2 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Alec Oglesby 22.5 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tre Green 18.1 mpg, 6.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Kevin de Kovachich from North Alabama · 31.2 mpg, 11.8 ppg last season
- Ofri Naveh from Oral Roberts · 28.0 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
- Eli Rice from Penn State · 17.9 mpg, 6.1 ppg last season
- Kaleb Siler no D1 minutes last season
- Landyn Colyer no D1 minutes last season
- Aiden Bolden no D1 minutes last season
Returns 25% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -8.5→-9.5-115 | 143.5o-105 u-115 | -485 | +370 |
| FanDuel | -7.5→-9.5-110 | 144.5→142.5o-110 u-110 | -580 | +420 |
| BetMGM | -7.5→-9.5-115 | 143.5o-105 u-115 | -500 | +375 |
| BetRivers | -7.5→-9.5-118 | 144.5o-108 u-115 | -560 | +380 |
| Caesars | -7.5→-9.5-110 | 143.5→143o-110 u-110 | -480 | +360 |
| Fanatics | -8→-9.5-110 | 144.5→143o-110 u-110 | -475 | +360 |
| BetOnline | -8.5→-9.5-115 | 143.5→143o-105 u-115 | -500 | +383 |
| Bovada | -7.5→-9.5-115 | 143.5o-105 u-115 | -470 | +345 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5→-9.5-115 | 143.5o-105 u-115 | -550 | +380 |
| Hard Rock | -7.5→-9.5-115 | 144.5o-105 u-115 | -550 | +375 |
| Kalshi | -7.5→-10.5+117 | 143.5o+108 u-113 | -426 | +400 |
| Polymarket | -7.5→-9.5+100 | 142.5o-113 u+104 | -426 | +400 |
| Novig | -7.5→-9.5-106 | 143.5→— | -441 | +413 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Nov 12 | 2025-26 | MTSU 77 – 72 Evansville |
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.