CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMcKale Center at ALKEME Arena, Tucson, AZ

N Arizona

Efficiency #329

2025-26: 10-22 · 4-15 conf

Arizona

Efficiency #3

2025-26: 36-3 · 19-2 conf

Tue, Nov 10 · TBD

60.9

win 1%

Projected

87.4

win 99%

No line posted yet.

Model: ARIZ −26.5 · total 148.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Arizona 70.1, N Arizona 66.0 → 67.8 possessions

−1.2

Arizona offense vs N Arizona defense

+11.9

N Arizona offense vs Arizona defense

−10.6

Projected total

148.3

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Arizona offense vs N Arizona defense

+11.9

N Arizona offense vs Arizona defense

+10.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Arizona by 26.5

26.5

N Arizona side ◂▸ Arizona side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +26.4 against +26.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Arizona.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Arizona is the faster team (71.4, #38 of 365) and N Arizona the slower (65.5, #317). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.3

model

Projected team totals

60.9 / 87.4

N Arizona / Arizona

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.0#342

N Arizona

70.1#41

Arizona

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageArizona

Where Arizona scores: shooting

Arizona shoots an effective 54.7% (#45); N Arizona allows 56.9% (#355). Expect about 56.1%, 4.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.9 points per 100 possessions.

GlassArizona

Arizona owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 37.4% is worth roughly +4.3 points per 100 possessions for Arizona's offense.

AdvantageN Arizona

Where N Arizona struggles: the offensive glass

N Arizona rebounds 23.3% of its own misses (#348); Arizona lets opponents grab 26.9% of their own misses (#34). Expect about 23.7%, 6.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.1 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Arizona averages 71.4 possessions per 40, N Arizona 65.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Arizona, Arizona's defense, N Arizona's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect N Arizona at about 36.0% of its shots from three, Arizona about 29.3%.

N Arizona has the ball

OffenseArizona allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #161

45.3% #4

-4.0 pt/100

16.0% #141

16.3% #200

+0.9 pt/100

23.3% #348

26.9% #34

-4.1 pt/100

31.8% #260

27.1% #25

-0.8 pt/100

68.9% #304

—

-0.3 pt/100

N Arizona net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.2 pts/100

Arizona has the ball

OffenseN Arizona allowsvs D1 avg

54.7% #45

56.9% #355

+6.9 pt/100

15.1% #72

16.6% #180

+1.3 pt/100

38.4% #5

33.4% #305

+4.3 pt/100

43.9% #11

32.7% #124

+0.4 pt/100

73.4% #156

—

+0.1 pt/100

Arizona net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +13.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

N Arizonaoffense vsArizonadefense

Share of shots by zone

N Arizona shoots

38.6

7.1

19.1

35.2

Arizona allows

27.4

11.5

23.6

37.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.6%#284	53.1%#25	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.5%#31	34.9%#55	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.4%#101	35.9%#104	38.0%
Three	35.6%#79	31.4%#42	33.7%

Arizonaoffense vsN Arizonadefense

Share of shots by zone

Arizona shoots

40.7

12.4

21.2

25.7

N Arizona allows

42.8

5.2

11.7

40.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.0%#71	62.3%#307	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.0%#50	37.2%#115	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.9%#61	41.1%#278	38.0%
Three	36.6%#37	38.7%#362	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

N Arizona

−2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#300 of 365

Off reb %

23.3%

#348

Def reb %

66.6%

#305

Turnover %

16.0%

#141

Forced TO %

16.6%

#180

FT rate

31.8%

#260

FT allowed

32.7%

#124

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.3

Defensive rebounding−0.9

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers−0.1

Foul shots drawn−0.8

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Arizona

+9.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#3 of 365

Off reb %

38.4%

Def reb %

73.1%

#34

Turnover %

15.1%

#72

Forced TO %

16.3%

#200

FT rate

43.9%

#11

FT allowed

27.1%

#25

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.6

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn+2.3

Foul shots allowed+2.1

Arizona has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.0 (#3 of 365) to N Arizona’s −2.9 (#300).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N Arizona2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N Arizona's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Ryan Abelman	G	Jr	6'4"	30-30	32.3	10.5	5.1	1.9	1.1	49.5%	36.1%	4.8	89.4%	20.3%
2	Chris Komin	G	Fr	6'3"	31-17	26.6	7.8	2.1	2.2	0.8	53.1%	35.7%	2.3	81.8%	17.3%
3	Traivar Jackson	F	Sr	6'7"	32-20	22.0	7.3	5.0	0.9	1.1	57.8%	—	0.0	64.8%	19.6%
9	Karl Poom	F	So	6'8"	32-2	19.6	8.9	3.3	1.2	1.7	54.2%	30.5%	1.8	54.4%	30.3%
7	Brennan Peterson	G	Fr	6'0"	32-16	19.4	4.8	0.7	2.0	0.8	56.5%	41.1%	2.8	71.4%	15.7%
24	Isaiah Shaw	G	Jr	6'8"	29-22	18.3	8.1	2.1	0.6	1.2	56.9%	46.4%	2.4	81.1%	25.1%
44	Arne Osojnik	G	Jr	6'6"	29-14	16.1	6.4	2.5	1.0	0.9	48.3%	32.4%	2.3	77.3%	26.8%
12	Diego Campisano	F	Sr	6'6"	26-9	17.8	7.0	2.4	0.5	0.5	52.1%	37.9%	3.7	76.9%	23.5%
22	Kavon Bradford	G	So	6'1"	28-12	16.2	5.3	1.6	1.7	1.3	44.9%	26.7%	0.5	65.6%	24.0%
5	Zack Davidson	F	So	6'9"	14-13	23.6	14.0	4.8	0.8	1.9	62.0%	25.0%	0.3	46.3%	33.1%
4	Oakland Fort	G	Sr	5'10"	29-5	11.1	3.1	0.8	1.5	0.5	57.3%	37.0%	0.9	50.0%	17.2%
82	Erez Poran	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	5.4	0.8	1.3	0.3	0.2	32.1%	14.3%	0.5	33.3%	15.0%
8	Walker Timme	F	Jr	6'7"	1-0	8.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	13.7%
0	JT Amundsen	G	Fr	5'8"	4-0	1.8	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.8	—	22.2%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Arizona2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Ivan Kharchenkov	F	Fr	6'7"	39-39	28.4	10.4	4.3	2.3	1.5	54.6%	31.7%	2.7	72.3%	20.9%
13	Motiejus Krivas	C	Jr	7'2"	39-39	25.2	10.4	8.2	1.1	1.4	57.7%	30.8%	0.3	78.0%	21.4%
2	Dwayne Aristode	F	Fr	6'8"	35-0	13.3	3.8	1.7	0.7	0.4	64.6%	46.2%	1.9	50.0%	14.3%
15	Sidi Gueye	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	3.6	1.3	0.8	0.2	0.2	72.2%	—	0.0	63.6%	17.3%
21	Evan Nelson	G	Sr	6'2"	25-0	3.3	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.3	53.8%	40.0%	0.4	—	13.6%
22	Addison Arnold	G	So	6'3"	20-0	2.3	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.1	15.4%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	20.1%
42	Sven Djopmo	G	So	6'2"	19-0	1.9	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.1	57.1%	0.0%	0.1	40.0%	15.8%
11	Jackson Cook	G	So	6'3"	10-0	1.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	13.2%
7	Jackson Francois	G	Sr	6'5"	10-0	1.4	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.2	66.7%	—	0.0	—	19.1%
6	Bryce James	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
20	Mabil Mawut	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

N Arizona2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N Arizona's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Ryan Abelman	G	Jr	6'4"	30-30	32.3	10.5	5.1	1.9	1.1	49.5%	36.1%	4.8	89.4%	20.3%
2	Chris Komin	G	Fr	6'3"	31-17	26.6	7.8	2.1	2.2	0.8	53.1%	35.7%	2.3	81.8%	17.3%
3	Traivar Jackson	F	Sr	6'7"	32-20	22.0	7.3	5.0	0.9	1.1	57.8%	—	0.0	64.8%	19.6%
9	Karl Poom	F	So	6'8"	32-2	19.6	8.9	3.3	1.2	1.7	54.2%	30.5%	1.8	54.4%	30.3%
7	Brennan Peterson	G	Fr	6'0"	32-16	19.4	4.8	0.7	2.0	0.8	56.5%	41.1%	2.8	71.4%	15.7%
24	Isaiah Shaw	G	Jr	6'8"	29-22	18.3	8.1	2.1	0.6	1.2	56.9%	46.4%	2.4	81.1%	25.1%
44	Arne Osojnik	G	Jr	6'6"	29-14	16.1	6.4	2.5	1.0	0.9	48.3%	32.4%	2.3	77.3%	26.8%
12	Diego Campisano	F	Sr	6'6"	26-9	17.8	7.0	2.4	0.5	0.5	52.1%	37.9%	3.7	76.9%	23.5%
22	Kavon Bradford	G	So	6'1"	28-12	16.2	5.3	1.6	1.7	1.3	44.9%	26.7%	0.5	65.6%	24.0%
5	Zack Davidson	F	So	6'9"	14-13	23.6	14.0	4.8	0.8	1.9	62.0%	25.0%	0.3	46.3%	33.1%
4	Oakland Fort	G	Sr	5'10"	29-5	11.1	3.1	0.8	1.5	0.5	57.3%	37.0%	0.9	50.0%	17.2%
82	Erez Poran	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	5.4	0.8	1.3	0.3	0.2	32.1%	14.3%	0.5	33.3%	15.0%
8	Walker Timme	F	Jr	6'7"	1-0	8.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	13.7%
0	JT Amundsen	G	Fr	5'8"	4-0	1.8	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.8	—	22.2%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

N Arizona

Against the spread

Season

14-15

Home

7-6

Road

6-8

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.5

Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 2 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-18

Home

6-7

Road

4-10

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −2.9

Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Idaho StAdjEM #253	N	L 65–73	+4.5	L−3.5	142.5	U138	98.2	110.3	66.2
Mar 2	Montana StAdjEM #130	H	L 65–76	+6.0	L−5.0	143.5	U141	106.6	124.6	61.0
Feb 28	E WashingtonAdjEM #189	A	L 57–88	+9.5	L−21.5	147.0	U145	89.7	138.6	63.5
Feb 26	IdahoAdjEM #156	A	L 58–78	+10.5	L−9.5	146.0	U136	95.6	128.6	60.7
Feb 21	N ColoradoAdjEM #146	A	L 77–78	+12.5	W+11.5	150.5	O155	115.6	117.1	66.6
Feb 14	Sacramento StAdjEM #280	H	W 79–74	−1.5	W+3.5	155.0	U153	111.2	104.2	71.0
Feb 12	Portland StAdjEM #145	H	L 68–77	+7.5	L−1.5	135.5	O145	107.6	121.8	63.2
Feb 7	Weber StAdjEM #203	A	L 53–72	+7.0	L−12.0	151.0	U125	90.3	122.6	58.7
Feb 5	Idaho StAdjEM #253	A	W 79–73	+8.0	W+14.0	141.5	O152	133.1	123.0	59.4
Jan 31	IdahoAdjEM #156	H	L 62–79	+5.5	L−11.5	147.0	U141	94.8	120.8	65.4

Arizona

Against the spread

Season

23-14-2

Home

9-8

Road

4-4-2

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 10 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

20-19

Home

8-9

Road

6-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.7

Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 10 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 4	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 73–91	−1.0	L−19.0	157.5	O164	93.6	116.6	78.0
Mar 28	#2PurdueAdjEM #9	N	W 79–64	−5.0	W+10.0	152.5	U143	121.0	98.0	65.3
Mar 26	#4ArkansasAdjEM #19	N	W 109–88	−8.0	W+13.0	165.5	O197	136.4	110.1	79.9
Mar 22	#9Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	W 78–66	−11.5	W+0.5	154.0	U144	121.2	102.5	64.4
Mar 20	#16Long IslandAdjEM #195	N	W 92–58	−30.5	W+3.5	148.0	O150	130.1	82.0	70.7
Mar 14	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	N	W 79–74	−1.5	W+3.5	138.5	O153	120.2	112.6	65.7
Mar 13	#7Iowa StateAdjEM #7	N	W 82–80	−3.5	L−1.5	144.5	O162	123.9	120.8	66.2
Mar 12	UCFAdjEM #70	N	W 81–59	−15.5	W+6.5	158.5	U140	118.4	86.2	68.4
Mar 7	ColoradoAdjEM #91	A	W 89–79	−13.5	L−3.5	156.0	O168	122.5	108.7	72.7
Mar 2	#6Iowa StateAdjEM #7	H	W 73–57	−7.0	W+9.0	149.0	U130	109.3	85.4	66.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

N ArizonaArizona

Efficiency

105.0

119.5

115.1

96.3

66.0

70.1

—

Shooting

51.7%

54.7%

50.7%

54.6%

35.6%

36.6%

68.9%

73.4%

31.8%

43.9%

Ball control & glass

16.0%

15.1%

16.6%

16.3%

23.3%

38.4%

33.4%

26.9%

8.4%

8.6%

8.9%

8.5%

Style

36.7%

26.3%

44.1%

49.0%

10.0%

16.9%

51.0%

54.0%

35.9%

29.4%

Roster

2.54

1.83

6'4.6"

6'9.4"

—

36.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

N Arizona

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted N Arizona's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Arizona

Returning minutes: 36.3%Returning production: 33.7%

Lost

Jaden Bradley 30.7 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Brayden Burries 29.7 mpg, 16.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Koa Peat 25.7 mpg, 13.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Anthony Dell'Orso 20.9 mpg, 8.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tobe Awaka 20.7 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Mabil Mawut no D1 minutes last season
Bryce James no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 36% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Tue, Nov 11	2025-26	N Arizona 49 – 84 Arizona

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.