CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCU Events Center, Boulder, CO
San Diego
Efficiency #269
2025-26: 12-21 · 6-14 conf
@
Colorado
Efficiency #91
2025-26: 17-16 · 7-12 conf
Tue, Nov 10 · TBD
72.5
win 17%
Projected
83.4
win 83%
No line posted yet.
Model: COLO −10.9 · total 155.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Colorado 69.3, San Diego 68.8 → 69.8 possessions
+3.1
Colorado offense vs San Diego defense
+5.7
San Diego offense vs Colorado defense
−1.2
Projected total
155.9
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Colorado offense vs San Diego defense
+5.7
San Diego offense vs Colorado defense
+1.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Colorado by 10.9
10.9
San Diego side ◂▸ Colorado side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 155.8 against a projected 155.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Colorado.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Colorado is the faster team (70.2, #87 of 365) and San Diego the slower (68.8, #159). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
155.9
model
Projected team totals
72.5 / 83.4
San Diego / Colorado
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.8#136
San Diego
69.3#102
Colorado

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageColorado
Where Colorado scores: shooting
Colorado shoots an effective 52.9% (#108); San Diego allows 54.7% (#320). Expect about 54.0%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.8 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Colorado's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect San Diego at about 40.9% of its shots from three, Colorado about 36.5%.
ClashColorado
Strength vs strength: turnover rate
Colorado (#46 in turnover rate) against San Diego (#55 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 16.9%. Historically San Diego's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).
San Diego has the ball
OffenseColorado allowsvs D1 avg
51.2% #185
52.6% #243
+0.9 pt/100
17.5% #237
15.3% #267
+0.7 pt/100
28.1% #262
29.6% #144
-1.2 pt/100
25.8% #358
36.6% #228
-0.4 pt/100
74.7% #95
—
+0.2 pt/100
San Diego net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.1 pts/100
Colorado has the ball
OffenseSan Diego allowsvs D1 avg
52.9% #108
54.7% #320
+3.8 pt/100
14.6% #46
18.9% #55
-0.1 pt/100
29.0% #235
34.5% #328
+0.6 pt/100
36.7% #139
38.8% #281
+0.4 pt/100
76.1% #50
—
+0.3 pt/100
Colorado net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
San Diegooffense vsColoradodefense
Share of shots by zone
San Diego shoots
Colorado allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.6%#17457.7%#13658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.9%#27035.7%#8139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.6%#16843.6%#33738.0%
Three34.6%#14136.3%#31933.7%
Coloradooffense vsSan Diegodefense
Share of shots by zone
Colorado shoots
San Diego allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.1%#15763.2%#32858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.5%#18750.0%#35439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.5%#4847.3%#36138.0%
Three35.2%#10432.7%#10033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
San Diego
−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#334 of 365
Off reb %
28.1%
#262
Def reb %
65.5%
#328
Turnover %
17.5%
#237
Forced TO %
18.9%
#55
FT rate
25.8%
#358
FT allowed
38.8%
#281
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers+1.5
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.9
Colorado
+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#164 of 365
Off reb %
29.0%
#235
Def reb %
70.4%
#144
Turnover %
14.6%
#46
Forced TO %
15.3%
#267
FT rate
36.7%
#139
FT allowed
36.6%
#228
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+1.5
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn+0.4
Foul shots allowed−0.4

Colorado has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.5 (#164 of 365) to San Diego’s −4.3 (#334).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

San Diego2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted San Diego's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Toneari LaneGSr6'5"33-1726.811.32.00.70.758.2%44.0%5.885.0%21.8%
2Adrian McIntyreGSr6'3"32-1724.89.83.62.91.557.1%32.1%2.473.5%23.2%
4Juanse GorositoGSr6'0"32-1724.310.52.72.21.351.9%38.2%5.683.3%26.2%
34Vuk BoskovicFFr6'7"33-1820.36.13.22.01.655.7%35.8%3.360.5%20.0%
5Ty-Laur JohnsonGJr6'0"23-2128.014.62.74.32.947.7%30.9%3.582.6%33.8%
7Assane DiopFJr6'9"29-1918.95.75.21.31.356.4%41.9%1.559.3%19.4%
14Dominique FordGSr6'5"31-1717.35.62.20.80.744.6%22.9%1.576.4%21.1%
30Tim Moore Jr.FSr6'6"31-1014.96.62.40.30.549.7%20.0%1.879.7%25.0%
12Gavin RippFFr6'7"26-717.04.12.51.51.048.3%23.5%0.780.0%17.0%
21Alejandro AvilesFFr6'10"24-810.82.61.70.80.539.0%0.0%0.176.2%18.0%
3D'Arrae GoodwinFFr6'6"14-614.64.72.50.80.853.6%33.3%2.666.7%20.1%
22Emmanuel CallasGJr6'5"16-49.10.81.50.40.441.7%—0.060.0%8.3%
24Brandon BenjaminGFr6'6"19-07.02.71.10.80.653.6%25.0%0.270.0%25.7%
23Piotr WinkowskiCJr6'10"15-46.52.11.90.30.656.5%—0.045.5%21.4%
10Neel BeniwalGJr6'5"9-03.60.80.30.10.121.4%16.7%0.780.0%17.0%
9Josh HechtGJr6'2"8-02.81.30.10.10.650.0%33.3%0.8—35.5%
15Caleb VersherGFr6'3"3-06.71.71.71.01.341.7%50.0%0.7—27.3%
53Nick Del BosqueGSo6'0"5-01.40.00.00.00.20.0%—0.0—23.0%
6Boden GrantGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
0Kjay Bradley Jr.GSr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
San DiegoColorado
Efficiency
106.6
113.2
112.0
108.7
68.8
69.3
—
—
Shooting
51.2%
52.9%
50.8%
53.0%
34.6%
35.2%
74.7%
76.1%
25.8%
36.7%
Ball control & glass
17.5%
14.6%
18.9%
15.3%
28.1%
29.0%
34.5%
29.6%
10.0%
8.4%
10.1%
9.2%
Style
43.7%
35.2%
39.6%
43.9%
15.1%
16.7%
59.1%
55.2%
39.6%
34.7%
Roster
3.00
1.94
6'4.7"
6'5.6"
—
87.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
San Diego
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted San Diego's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Colorado
Returning minutes: 87.8%Returning production: 87.0%
Lost
  • Sebastian Rancik 24.6 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Florida St
Added
  • Leonardo Van Elswyk no D1 minutes last season
  • Jon Mani no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.